Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog

This press release from the Ted Cruz campaign (penned by J2Strategies consultant Jason Johnson) on those Q1 Texas Senate Race fundraising totals makes interesting reading. The classic lawyer advice is “If the facts are on your side, pound the facts.” And since the facts seems very much on Cruz’s side, Johnson pounds them relentlessly and effectively. It’s not that the document is free of spin (it is, after all, a campaign press release), but that the spin which is there is made far more effective by the remorseless logic of the underlying numbers presented and the understated (indeed, respectful) nature of the comparisons made with Cruz’s opponent’s.

A few high-points, taken straight from the press release:

The press release takes particular aim at Michael Williams and Tom Leppert, perceiving (correctly, I think) that they are Cruz’s most serious rivals among declared candidates:

Cruz vs. Michael Williams
Michael Williams is the only candidate who is seriously attempting to contest Ted for the support of (1) conservative leaders, (2) grassroots activists, and (3) Tea Party leaders. But Michael Williams failed to raise sufficient funds to be able to compete in a statewide primary, especially against multiple candidates who have the ability to self-finance.

In Q1: Cruz out-raised Michael Williams by a ratio of 2.5:1. $1,012,885 to $414,119

In Q1: Cruz’s cash on hand is nearly four times Michael Williams’s cash on hand. $895,153 to $237,210 (less current debts)

In Q1: Cruz received over three times the contributions as Michael Williams (3.3:1.). Cruz: 1,147 Contributions; Michael Williams: 343 Contributions.

In Q1: Cruz received donations from 122 Texas cities, compared to Michael Williams’s 70.

In Q1: Cruz received donations from 37 States, compared to Michael Williams’s 16.

On Facebook, Cruz has 57,293 supporters, compared to Michael Williams’s 7,896

The summary points make further comparisons with Michael Williams:

In the “sub-primary” to determine the strongest conservative candidate in the race, Cruz is in by far the strongest position. Indeed, numerous national conservative commentators and grassroots leaders publicly (1) expressed concern that Michael Williams could not raise enough funds to run a credible statewide campaign against a deep-pocketed self-funder, and (2) stated that they would choose between Cruz and Michael Williams based in significant part on who could raise the most money to run a strong conservative campaign. Nevertheless, Michael Williams was only able to raise just over $400,000, and in Q1 Cruz raised 2 1/2 times as much.

In order to mount a credible statewide campaign in the Republican Primary, a candidate will need at least $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 to communicate with voters from January 2012 through Election Day. Michael Williams is not on a path to raise those funds.

To be sure, a candidate with significant name identification among primary voters could conceivably compete with less than $10,000,000. However, multiple statewide polls have demonstrated that none of the current candidates has substantial name ID. Indeed, despite Michael Williams’s having served in a down-ballot elected position for many years, he and Cruz are statistically tied in statewide name ID. With the exception of Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, voters simply do not know any of the candidates, and it will take serious financial resources to change that in a state as large as Texas.

In addition to dinging Leppert for his narrow fundraising base, in this press release we also see the beginnings of the “Tom Leppert is a RINO” attack I’ve been anticipating ever since the Dallas Mayor threw his hat into the ring:

Politically, Leppert’s record as Mayor of Dallas is demonstrably out of step with the values of the Texas primary voters. Indeed, it is difficult to see a credible path for a moderate-to-liberal Mayor of Dallas to win a statewide Republican primary in Texas.

I’ve been communicating with the Cruz campaign, and recently sent off some questions for the candidate, and hope to put up his answers in the near future.

Ten months out from the primary, there’s still a lot of race left. Michael Williams has time to right his ship, David Dewhurst has time to decide whether to get in or stay out, and events can undermine even the best-run campaign. But at this point Cruz and Leppert have to be considered the front-runners.

Tags: 2012 Election, David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Michael Williams, Republicans, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert

This entry was posted on Thursday, May 5th, 2011 at 6:14 PM and is filed under Elections, Republicans, Texas. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.