In a followup to yesterday’s post on the Kursk incursion, here’s a timelapse video of Ukrainian territorial gains in Kursk oblast.
YouTuber GameWatcher has supplied a side-by-side timelapse of Russia’s fairly minimal gains in its respective offensive push.
“This animation is made from a collection of static analyst maps and represents my interpretation of the movements of armies and frontlines. Therefore, it should be viewed as an approximation rather than an exact depiction. The numbers represent the aproximate [sic] troops count for both sides.”
(Hat tip: Suchomimus.)
Tags: Kursk Oblast, Military, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukraine, video
In February of 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky removed General Valerii Zaluzhny from command and promoted General Oleksandr Syrsky to replace him.
At the time, I was apprehensive of this maneuver because Syrsky had a reputation for squandering his ground troops to acquire small territorial advantages.
Behold! This Kursk incursion shows strong evidence that Syrsky has the ability to coordinate combined arms. Witness how the Kursk offensive exhibits the ability of Ukrainians to execute NATO-like maneuver warfare.
If the Ukrainian armed forces can successfully integrate the versatile F-16 fighter jet into their combined arms operations, Putin faces the very real threat of a wide-ranging breakthrough into Russia’s weakly defended interior.
My 2c worth of observations:
They (Ukrainians) should concentrate on Belgorod Oblast (in order to envelop the Russians attacking in Kharkiv and thus cut off their logistics) after they have concluded their current operations on the Seym River cauldron.
“Behold! This Kursk incursion shows strong evidence that Syrsky has the ability to coordinate combined arms. Witness how the Kursk offensive exhibits the ability of Ukrainians to execute NATO-like maneuver warfare.”
Colonel-General 200 doesn’t seem as enthused about the Ukrainian ‘Fall Wacht am Seym’:
One of the tasks of conducting an offensive operation in the Kursk direction was to divert significant enemy forces from other directions, first and foremost the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovsk directions,” Colonel General Aleksandr Syrsky said at a press conference in Kiev on Tuesday.
“Of course, the enemy understands this, so it continues to focus its main efforts on the Pokrovsk direction, where its most combat-ready units are concentrated,” he continued.
“The enemy is trying to withdraw units from other directions, while in the Pokrovsk direction, on the contrary, it is increasing its efforts,” Syrsky claimed,
If the Russians were intelligent, which they mostly aren’t… They’d be questioning why they’re having such an easy time on the way to Pokrovsk.
You look at the maps, and what you see as a civilian and/or internet expert is a “successful attack”. What I see? I see a salient waiting to be pinched off, with most of the Russian’s remaining competent and capable assault troops.
There’s a poster I used to have in my office, a long time ago. Bunch of humorous military aphorisms and truisms listed thereupon, and one of them was something to the effect of “If your attack is going really well… Look around: It may actually be an ambush.”
If I were running things in Ukraine, I’d have one major goal: Get the Russians out of their trenches and defenses, away from their logistical bases, and overextended where I can get at them and kill them in job lots. Running up against their fixed defenses and minefields is just stupid; sacrifice some territory, get them to come onto unprepared ground, and then cut them the f*ck off.
Oh, and making them expend even more of their truck-based logistics to support that? Gravy. Pure gravy. The “Pokrovsk Direction” may be a sign of disaster coming for the Ukrainians, but I think the whole “OMG, we’re running out of troops and ammo to defend…” is likely misdirection, and if the Russians fall for it, move out of their fixed defenses to the north in order to “attain” Pokrovsk…?
Do the math. I ain’t saying that’s what’s going on, but I wouldn’t take a damn thing coming out of Ukraine at face value. They’ve finally learned not to tell the Americans anything they don’t want relayed to Moscow, and that likely means that they’re playing to the crowd with those released news pieces about the troops defending Pokrovsk. Do note that they kept very, very quiet in the Kursk area.
I ain’t going to be surprised if we see the Russian forces lunging for Pokrovsk turned into a kettle, cut off, forced to surrender, and then watch what happens. If there’s a significant number of them that get caught up in that, we might see a tactical nuke release by panicked Russian leadership, in order to try and blast them out of the pocket they’ve wandered into. At this point, damn near anything is possible. Ukraine has to walk a tightrope; win, but win in a way that doesn’t trigger the psychos in Moscow.