If you live in Texas, today is primary runoff election day. In particular, Dade Phelan and a whole lot of his coalition cronies are fighting to stay in power, and voters can slam the door shut on them today.
Brad Johnson at The Texan has an overview of what’s a stake in today’s runoff.
House District (HD) 21 is the largest chip on the table and the warring sides in this raging intra-GOP trench war have gone all-in.
Including third-party groups, more than $12 million is likely to be spent on both sides of the clash between Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont) and David Covey. The challenger beat the incumbent by 3 points in the primary, but this round is winner-take-all.
Not only is a legislative seat on the line, but so is a speakership, one that comes with lots of influence for the area — a fact that’s been fashioned into an argument by Phelan and team.
The last time a speaker lost re-election was in 1972, though it was a substantially different circumstance.
Legislative hopes for next session are on the line — both in terms of what Phelan himself hopes to accomplish in 2025 and for everything that may end up on the chopping block should he and other incumbents survive, opening the door for a kind of revenge tour against Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
Patrick’s legacy as one of the most influential and powerful politicians in Texas history is already cemented. But he never likes losing a fight; he wouldn’t be where he is if he did. To that end, Patrick wants to ensure the speaker with whom he’s feuded so prolifically and publicly meets his political end on Tuesday…and Phelan hopes to deny Patrick what he wants yet again.
The lieutenant governor has likened the speaker to everything under the sun except the first over the wall at the Alamo. And the speaker has returned fire in-kind. Fences can always be mended, but this fence is more like the Great Wall of China or the Trump border wall that was never finished.
Should the speaker escape his political doom tonight, it’s more likely than not that slings and arrows will again be lobbed as the Legislature is eventually brought to a grinding halt.
Whether they’ll admit it publicly or not, more members than one might believe think Phelan will retain the speakership in that scenario; pour one out for all the “the King is dead”-type of columns written right after the primary.
And if Phelan loses tonight, that’ll mark the true beginning of the 2025 House speaker race. Jockeying for position behind the scenes has been going on since November, but at that point it would significantly ramp up.
The bomb-throwing contingent on the right of the House GOP caucus is bigger than it’s ever been and will have a legitimate run at pushing for various reforms. And after their faction won the Texas GOP chairmanship, the political relevance that waxed last year and during the primary waxed further.
Instead of “bomb thrower” I’d call them “the Republican wing of the Republican Party,” the one that actually wants to enact conservative policies and the one that doesn’t want to rule at the head of a Democrat-dominated coalition. Unlike Phelan.
Given widespread Republican dissatisfaction with Phelan’s faction, who is throwing money to keep Phelan’s toadies in office? Gambling interests.
Special interest casino gambling is spending big to protect incumbents who have carried their water in the Texas legislature.
According to campaign finance reports filed on Monday, Sands PAC donated nearly $650,000 in a mixture of races, including returning incumbents, failed candidates, and those taking part in primary runoff elections,
Already defeated incumbent Kronda Thimesch (R-Lewisville) received $54,000 from the PAC following her loss to attorney Mitch Little in the March primary. Drew Darby (R-San Angelo), who notched an unimpressive primary victory in March, received $25,000.
Embattled House Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont) received $100,000 in direct contributions from the Sands PAC and $512,163 in-kind spending, which the Speaker and other candidates obtained from a newly formed and well-funded vehicle for Sands and its owner.
Earlier this week, Texas Scorecard reported on the political spending of the “Texas Defense” PAC, a newly established committee funded by Miriam Adelson, the owner of Sands Casino.
Along with Phelan, the Texas Defense PAC supports embattled incumbents Frederick Frazier, Justin Holland, John Kuempel, and John McQueeney, a candidate for the open seat vacated by State Rep. Craig Goldman.
Frederick Frazier’s felony-plagued candidacy received $496,000 from the Defense PAC and $50,000 from Sands, as did Holland.
Seguin-based State Rep. John Kuempel also received $50,000 from Sands. Kuempel’s father, the late John Kuempel, was a proponent of expanded gambling and authored measures during his time in the legislature to that end.
Alan Schoolcraft, a former lawmaker, is challenging Kuempel and has the backing of Gov. Greg Abbott after Kuempel voted to strip school choice from an omnibus education bill in 2023.
All incumbent lawmakers forced into runoffs (Frazier, Holland, Kuempel) voted to expand gambling in Texas during the 2023 legislative session, despite the issue not being a priority for Texas voters. The only incumbent who missed out on funding and voted likewise was Gary VanDeaver (R-New Boston).
Democrats Jarvis Johnson and Nathan Johnson (no relation) received $50,000 and $9,000 in funding from Sands, respectively.
Today will also decided the runoff between gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera and incumbent Tony Gonzales for the 23rd Congressional District.
Tags: 2024 Election, Alan Schoolcraft, Brad Johnson, Brandon Herrera, Craig Goldman, Dade Phelan, Dan Patrick, Drew Darby, Elections, Frederick Frazier, gambling, Greg Abbott, John Kuempel, John McQueeney, Justin Holland, Kronda Thimesch, Miriam Adelson, Republicans, runoff, Texas, Texas Defense PAC, Texas House District 21, Texas House District 44, Texas House District 61, Texas House District 97, Tony Gonzales
If Phelan manages to squeak by (and early voting totals show big turnouts in Phelan’s Beaumont stronghold, so he might), I’m not so sure he’s a lock for Speaker.
A large segment of the Phelan machine has already been turfed out, either by being successfully primaried or be reading the tea leaves and not running for re-election, and others (e.g., John Kuempel) are unlikely to win their runoffs.
If the House GOP caucus has any stones, it will meet as a caucus and select the caucus choice for the Speakership, rather than allowing the old “pledge card” practice that has allowed RINO’s like Straus, Bonnen, and Phelan to get the chair by cobbling together a rump that allies with the Dems for the Speaker’s position.
It thus may well be that even if Phelan survives, he’s so radioactive that any GOP rep who allies with him knows they are on the next primary hit list. Far safer to just support the caucus choice.
Going to be VERY interesting in the morning . . . .
As of 11:00 Eastern The NY Times projects Phelan to be the winner. It was a narrow victory and so it may not be a portent of other races.
It was not a bad night. Phelan lost 15 supporters, which hurts his prospects for being re-elected Speaker and improves Abbot’s chances for successful school reforms.