Biggest Losers From Houthi Attacks? Not Israel And America
It’s hard to report on Houthi rebels telling U.S. armed forces to “bring it on” and keep a straight face. It’s like Steve Urkel declaring he’s going to kick Mike Tyson’s ass, or Bambi vs. Godzilla.
I mean, their video features a Northrup F-5, a plane introduced to service in 1964 and last manufactured in 1987. It would be very, very unlikely to defeat an F-15, much less an F-35, which would probably splash it from 50 miles away with an AIM-120 and be back in time for breakfast.
I’m a bottomless well of Skiffy pop culture references.
And the rest of their air force (or what little of it survives after Saudi air strikes) is old (and probably ill-maintained) Soviet crap of the type that got smoked by F-15s during Desert Storm more than 30 years ago.
Beyond that, the Houthis probably only have the shitty drones Iran sells to Russia, and the even shittier rockets they give to Hamas, and neither of those will get the job done, either.
So: Yeah.
So instead of the laughable idea of direct Houthi-U.S. military confrontation, let’s turn to Peter Zeihan (yeah, him again) to talk about who the biggest losers are in the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. (Hint: It’s not the U.S., or Israel.)
“Militants in Yemen are launching a combination of low-grade ballistic missiles and drones at commercial shipping in the Red Sea. And that’s led the 10 major shipping companies of the world to basically suspend operations in that area, and either tell their ships to wait [until] the threat passes, or simply sail around the Red Sea completely, which means going all the way around Africa for the Asia-Europe run.”
“Here we have basically a bunch of drug-adled militants, some of the world’s least competent ones, operating from some of the world’s least valuable land in Yemen, probably at the instigation of the Iranians who are their primary supporter, because this is a little conflict that is a needle in the side of Saudi Arabia cost them very little.”
“This is is not a formal shutting down of trade, this is more of a heavy annoyance.”
It’s not the danger of being sunk deterring traffic, it’s the dangerous of losing insurance for going into a zone of conflict.
Who’s hurt worst by all this? First, China. “Roughly 30% of all global containerized traffic [goes through Suez], and the biggest single chunk of that is Chinese exports to the European Union…it increases the sailing distance by 1/3rd to 2/3rds, and that means you need 1/3rd to 2/3rd more container ships to maintain the same flows. So we’re going to see a lot of pinches in the supply chains for finished goods.”
“In an environment where consumption is basically seized up in China and all they have left are exports, it’s also going to make it a little bit easier for the Europeans to put trade sanctions on the Chinese for product dumping.”
The Saudis might find it a bit more difficult to ship crude to Europe, but there are some ways around that.
Then there’s Russia: “Because of a lack of infrastructure, Russian crude had to be exported through the same port points on the Black and Baltic Sea, but it had to be then shipped through the Mediterranean through Suez through the Red Sea across the Arabian Sea to India, southeast Asia and China.”
“Well, that is barely an economically viable route now, which is one of the reasons why the Russians are typically selling their crude at a $20 to a $30 a barrel discount. But if Suez is closed, then they can no longer send these small tankers through it, and these small tankers don’t have the reach to go all the way around Africa.” I find the last assertion dubious, as they are surely ports in Africa they can resupply and refuel at, especially since I don’t think any countries in Africa have signed up for sanctions against Russia.
“So you’re looking at something like 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day of Russian crude that might finally actually be stranded if this isn’t solved pretty quickly now.”
Russian insurance update: “You have some Russian players, some Indian players, and some Chinese players who have started started to offer indemnification insurance. So we might get this really colorful situation where the real shipping companies stop using Suez and the Red Sea, but these shadow companies that have never had to pay out start using it and then we get to find out what happens if an Iranian-backed militant Force hits a Chinese Indian or Russian ship.” Good times, good time…
I also have to wonder if there are mercenaries Ukraine could hire to carry out letters of marquis and reprisal on Russian ships…
This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 20th, 2023 at 8:02 PM and is filed under Jihad, Military, video. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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9 Responses to “Biggest Losers From Houthi Attacks? Not Israel And America”
Upside is we might get some good anti-piracy porno out of it like we did with the Russian navy smoking Somali pirate skiffs of the horn a few years back. Watching heavy caliber autocannons smoking small craft, even if unmanned, on the high seas is a giddy delight for some of us.
I would love to see an Iranian drone boat get smoked by a Bushmaster.
If anyone could find a nation that would issue a letter of marque and reprisal, any action would likely be considered piracy. 52 nations, including the United States, came to support the provisions of the Paris Convention of 1856, which eliminated the use of letters of maque. While I don’t know if Ukraine conforms to the convention, but it is likely that anyone the privateers encounter would treat them as pirates.
The farce that US is not engaged in hostile actions directly against Russia doesn’t humor Russians. NORDSTREAM pipeline’s equivalent is the Alaskan pipeline. Putin has been well motivated to provide some cargo containerized SS-N-27s via Iran to peculiarly adept ‘Houthis’ – given peculiarly adept ‘Ukrainians’ were able to detect, identify, target and effectively engage his cruiser in the Black Sea.
My guess on this? The Egyptian military is about to join in on things with the Saudis, and what there is left of Yemen is about to “Find Out” the hard way.
The whole thing is an artifact of the Biden Krime Krewe having sent all those billions to Iran. Absent those funds? The mullahs would be worried about domestic upheaval. With it? They’re enabled.
Which is something that the Chinese have to be re-thinking, right about now. This could well be the final straw for their already-shaky economy.
The world is full of idiots. It’s rather unfortunate that we’ve put them in charge of everything; there’s a village out there missing their village idiot, and that idiot’s name is Biden.
“Because of a lack of infrastructure, Russian crude had to be exported through the same port points on the Black and Baltic Sea, but it had to be then shipped through the Mediterranean through Suez through the Red Sea across the Arabian Sea to India, southeast Asia and China.”
This really isn’t an issue. The Russians can ship oil around the Cape of Good Hope for about a 1.4% premium from the Black Sea, over using the Suez Canal route – and this premium is even less from Baltic ports. This is the route now adopted by the maritime container shipping firms.
[…] ‘shock plan’, and That time of year when the pigs start hiding from the Cubans BattleSwarm: Biggest Losers From Houthi Attacks? Not Israel And America, also, Biden’s Illegal Alien Flood Results in 7 Year Court Date Wait Behind The Black: Starship […]
It’s “marque and reprisal”
The Houthis have to learn to play by Marque of Queensbury rules.
Upside is we might get some good anti-piracy porno out of it like we did with the Russian navy smoking Somali pirate skiffs of the horn a few years back. Watching heavy caliber autocannons smoking small craft, even if unmanned, on the high seas is a giddy delight for some of us.
I would love to see an Iranian drone boat get smoked by a Bushmaster.
If anyone could find a nation that would issue a letter of marque and reprisal, any action would likely be considered piracy. 52 nations, including the United States, came to support the provisions of the Paris Convention of 1856, which eliminated the use of letters of maque. While I don’t know if Ukraine conforms to the convention, but it is likely that anyone the privateers encounter would treat them as pirates.
The farce that US is not engaged in hostile actions directly against Russia doesn’t humor Russians. NORDSTREAM pipeline’s equivalent is the Alaskan pipeline. Putin has been well motivated to provide some cargo containerized SS-N-27s via Iran to peculiarly adept ‘Houthis’ – given peculiarly adept ‘Ukrainians’ were able to detect, identify, target and effectively engage his cruiser in the Black Sea.
Our ships aren’t in the Red Sea as defenders.
They are there as bait.
Egypt has to be feeling some pain, too, since their tolls for the Suez Canal will start dropping.
My guess on this? The Egyptian military is about to join in on things with the Saudis, and what there is left of Yemen is about to “Find Out” the hard way.
The whole thing is an artifact of the Biden Krime Krewe having sent all those billions to Iran. Absent those funds? The mullahs would be worried about domestic upheaval. With it? They’re enabled.
Which is something that the Chinese have to be re-thinking, right about now. This could well be the final straw for their already-shaky economy.
The world is full of idiots. It’s rather unfortunate that we’ve put them in charge of everything; there’s a village out there missing their village idiot, and that idiot’s name is Biden.
Has there been any reports of Russian dark fleet ships being attacked? I don’t think so. I doubt this is hurting Russia at all.
“Because of a lack of infrastructure, Russian crude had to be exported through the same port points on the Black and Baltic Sea, but it had to be then shipped through the Mediterranean through Suez through the Red Sea across the Arabian Sea to India, southeast Asia and China.”
This really isn’t an issue. The Russians can ship oil around the Cape of Good Hope for about a 1.4% premium from the Black Sea, over using the Suez Canal route – and this premium is even less from Baltic ports. This is the route now adopted by the maritime container shipping firms.
[…] ‘shock plan’, and That time of year when the pigs start hiding from the Cubans BattleSwarm: Biggest Losers From Houthi Attacks? Not Israel And America, also, Biden’s Illegal Alien Flood Results in 7 Year Court Date Wait Behind The Black: Starship […]