Imagine a timeline in which Russia became a normal country.
Imagine, instead of Putin and a corrupt oligarchy, that Russia had a functioning democracy and a viable economy. It wouldn’t need to be perfect, just something as functional as that seen in, say, Poland or Hungary. There would still be controversies and scandals, but Russia wouldn’t be an international pariah, and would still be fully plugged into the global trade system.
And a normal country wouldn’t have launched an illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine.
In such a timeline, old Russian foes Finland and Sweden would never see the need to join NATO. And Russia wouldn’t be getting U.S. bases right on its border.
The US will gain access to 15 military bases along the border with Russia under a defence deal to be signed with Finland next week.
Russia would regard the presence of Nato infrastructure near its borders as a threat, said Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman.
“This will certainly lead to tension. We can only regret this,” Mr Peskov said.
The treaty must be approved by Finland’s parliament.
Elina Valtonen, the country’s foreign minister, will be present in Washington during the signing to meet Antony Blinken, the United States secretary of state.
Washington signed a similar pact with Sweden on Dec 6 that gives the US access to 17 military bases.
Concerns raised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led both Finland and Sweden to abandon their military non-alignment and apply for membership in the Nato.
Finland joined in April, while Sweden is still waiting for its bid to be ratified by Nato members Hungary and Turkey.
To be sure, the U.S. already has some access to the military bases of NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. But Finland is much larger than all three combined, and has a vast border with Russia. And the Finns, as I’ve noted before, are no pushovers, having fought the Soviet Union to stalemate during The Winter War.
And now you add American force projection to Finland, and there chances of Russia securing its vast northern flank in any potential war against NATO is essentially nil. Plus it puts St. Petersburg at risk of being captured in a swift pincer movement.
And with real U.S. Air Force support, Russia will be completely incapable of establishing or maintaining air superiority. Ukraine has already made it prohibitively dangerous for Russian aircraft to overfly their territory. How well do you think Ivan will fare when he has to go up against F-22s and F-35s? (And yes, there are already F-22s in Estonia. And Finland and Poland already have F-35s on order.)
Of course, Russia could have avoided all this by not launching an illegal war of territorial aggression in Ukraine. But that would require it being a normal country, which is evidently too much to ask…
(Hat tip: Prairie Pundit.)
Tags: Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Military, NATO, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, St. Petersburg (Russia), Sweden
I fear that Finland is basing its calculus on the United States as it was, not the United States as it is, in these sadly diminished times.
Frankly, the one thing I’d advise anyone? Don’t trust the US. At. All. Our politicians are craven cowards that have destroyed much of our military power, and are actively engaged in destroying those who dare ally themselves with us. Finland should look not to the example of the UK, but the examples of South Vietnam and Afghanistan. There is no worse position to be in than to be a US ally in the path of “expediency”.
If I could go back and warn all the Kurds and Yazidis of Iraq that allied themselves with us, in good will? I’d tell them to run far, run fast, and never trust an American politician or one of our politically-minded officers above company grade.
Respectfully,
“an illegal war of territorial aggression in Ukraine”?
Obama, Brennan have the war they wanted in Ukraine.
Russia had assurances NATO wouldn’t expand to their border:
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
More recently, Deep State and OBiden’s ‘national security’ experts knew pressing it would get the war started.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dozens-wikileaks-cables-show-us-knew-nato-expansion-was-russias-bright-red-line
So now we’re watching thousands die in Ukraine and we’re to dream of Russia becoming a normal country?
Are we “normal”? Do we have a “functioning democracy” here?
Was it “normal” for our KGB (former FBI) to:
implement an “insurance policy” to subvert our electoral choice (Crossfire Hurricane),
entrap useful idiots for political advantage (Whitmer kidnapping and January 6 defendants),
collude with the DNC to pin their email server attack on the Russians and Donald Trump,
hide evidence of Biden family corruption (Hunter Biden laptop),
obfuscate and perjuring before Congress (Seth Rich laptop testimony),
raid a journalist’s home to retrieve the diary of Joe Biden’s daughter (James O’Keefe),
conduct the first ever armed raid on a former president’s home (Mar-a-Lago),
and
violate our 1st Amendment rights to protect the Democrat narrative (social media censorship)?
We are not a “normal country” anymore. Our border invasion and corruption in DC are our most pressing national security priorities. Dreaming of where the pieces are on the Risk board and invading St Petersburg (Without Russia going nuke? Have you observed any of their major exercises since the ’60s?) is a waste of time.
Ref: https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/12/when_public_distrust_of_the_fbi_comes_home_to_roost.html
“Imagine, instead of Putin and a corrupt oligarchy, that Russia had a functioning democracy and a viable economy. It wouldn’t need to be perfect, just something as functional as that seen in, say, Poland or Hungary.”
That’s just it, though. Russia is not and never has been a Western nation or society. Part of the problem with Western diplomacy and “engagement” with Russia is believing it is.
Russian economic warfare and Bidenomics have already done great damage to Sweden, Finland, and the Balts. Sweden and Finland are in recession; and the Balts are experiencing the highest inflation in the EU: 20%+ YoY!
These countries may be more of a drain on NATO than an asset in any confrontation with Russia. Their economies cannot sustain a prolonged confrontation with Russia without massive foreign assistance.
(sigh)
Anyone that thinks that the Obama/Biden axis had any good intent for an independent Ukraine is smoking crack. The reality is, I fear, that they were always working in concert with Russia and Putin to “put the old gang back together” for a stronger Russia; Ukrainian independence was never their goal, is not their goal, and if you’ve the brains to sit and analyze everything that they’ve done since 24 February of 2021, then you ought to see how clear it is that they’re only reluctantly supporting Ukraine and are doing as little as possible to do so.
It’s been delay, delay, delay since day one. If they’d have provided full support, from the beginning? A lot more Ukrainians would be alive, and far more Russians dead. Russia might well be out of Ukraine entirely.
Why they’ve done this? No idea, but I think there’s probably a “dead man’s switch” out there with full documentation of everything done by the US oligarchy inside Ukraine since the Clinton administration, likely to include the undocumented promises made in order to get the Ukrainians to give up their nukes. Which, as you might remember, were one of the early-days “accomplishments” of the Clinton administration. It’d be very interesting to know what blandishments and lies were told to induce that…
No idea what the hell is really going on, but so long as the Ukrainians are free of Russia, and willing to fight for that to remain so? I say support them; every dead Russian today is one that the Chinese won’t have to kill when they go to reclaim their lost lands on the Eurasian landmass, and the sooner they get going on that project, the better for everyone else. China has one demographic bolt to shoot, and the world would be far better off if the two Eurasian totalitarian states mixed it up than have the Chinese decide to go south after the smaller democratic states of the South China Sea area.
Frankly, I loathe Russia and China both, given their self-destructive drive for “strong-man” leadership. It’d be nice if their people could grow up and chose some other form of more productive governance, but so long as they chose what they have? Let them kill each other, and leave the rest of the world alone.
Ukraine is a stain on humanity. Period. As those that support the Sex Trafficking nation.
And the US Gov’t has lied since day one, creeping up there arse.
I have no problem with Russia doing what it is.
Reader seems to think that the pimp ought to be able to beat his whores into submission, when they try leaving the stable…
Ain’t going to lie: I’ve personally observed the end result of sex trafficking, and I do not like it. I also understand exactly how it happens, and why. Blaming the victim isn’t going to solve the problem; the proximate issue isn’t Ukraine, which has been victimized by Russia for generations, but the Russians that did the victimizing. Same thing with Korea; the “Comfort Women” were largely direct victims of other Koreans, hired by the Japanese. Who do you blame, there?
Also, quick question: What have you done, Reader, to crush “sex tourism” to places like Thailand and Sri Lanka? Do you know what people in those countries think of the average American, because of the people we’ve allowed to go to those countries and do things that are utterly depraved, to their children? Go find yourself a Thai or two, and ask the question. You won’t like the answer any more than I did. Ain’t none of us got clean hands; I never personally participated in the “bar girl” scene in South Korea, but I damn sure spent a lot of time looking the other way and saying nothing when other Americans took advantage of their economic power to sexually enslave others. If there weren’t buyers, then there wouldn’t be pimps, either.
However, I’ve been assured by all sorts of people that I’m a namby-pamby moralist on the issue. I’m sure you’ll think the same.
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Kirk seems to think that the pimp shouldn’t intervene when one of his unfriendly ex-whores starts knifing another of his friendly ex-whores who wanted to rejoin the stable.
Ukraine started killing off their Russophile citizens in 2014. It had nothing to do with Ukraine leaving “the stable.”
Ukraine is getting what it deserves.