Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin has evidently launched a coup against the Russian military leadership.
he owner of the Wagner private military contractor made his most direct challenge to the Kremlin yet on Friday, calling for an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia’s defense minister. The security services reacted immediately by calling for the arrest of Yevgeny Prigozhin.
In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin was taking the threat, security was heightened in Moscow and in Rostov-on-Don, which is home to the Russian military headquarters for the southern region and also oversees the fighting in Ukraine.
While the outcome of the confrontation was still unclear, it appeared likely to further hinder Moscow’s war effort as Kyiv’s forces were probing Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive.
Prigozhin claimed early Saturday that his forces had crossed into Russia from Ukraine and had reached Rostov, saying they faced no resistance from young conscripts at checkpoints and that his forces “aren’t fighting against children.”
“But we will destroy anyone who stands in our way,” he said in one of a series of angry video and audio recordings posted on social media beginning late Friday. “We are moving forward and will go until the end.”
He claimed that the chief of the General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, scrambled warplanes to strike Wagner’s convoys, which were driving alongside ordinary vehicles. Prigozhin also said his forces shot down a Russian military helicopter that fired on a civilian convoy, but there was no independent confirmation.
And despite Prigozhin’s statements that Wagner convoys had entered Rostov-on-Don, there was no confirmation of that yet on Russian social networks. Videos showed heavy trucks blocking highways leading to the city, long convoys of National Guard trucks were seen on a road outside Rostov-on-Don and armored vehicles were roaming the streets.
Prigozhin said Wagner field camps in Ukraine were struck by rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery fire on orders from Gerasimov following a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, at which they decided to destroy Wagner.
Seems insane on the surface, but people are bandying about the idea that 97% of the Russian army is invested in Ukraine.
Two random videos on the coup:
LiveUAMap snap of Rostov-on-Don:
Twitter post via Instapundit:
Prigozhin's audio message at 01:22 BST:
"The Head of General Staff is not calming down: a mistake of any African dictator is to deal air strikes at civilian areas. Right now in the air are two planes numbered 523 and 546 that are trying now to deal these strikes.
Remember,…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023
Also following news on Suchomimus’ Discord.
I got stuff to do right now, but this is the sort of fast-evolving story that deserves an open thread. So talk away with news here.
Developing…
Update: Quick state-of-play video from Suchomimus:
Update 2: BBC has a liveblog on the coup.
Update 3: Random non-coup observation: Reporting from Ukraine hasn’t updated in two days. I don’t treat that guy as gospel, but I don’t think he’s missed a posting day since shortly after the war began.
Update 4: Never mind, there he is:
Tags: 2023 Russian Coup, Military, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Suchomimus, video, Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin
Yeah, this is a world-historical moment, well worth paying attention to. I suspect we’re all going to remember where we were, and what we were doing when we got news of this.
Events may well correct me, but I think this is the opening stage of the end-game for the third Russian empire. I don’t see how on God’s green earth they’re going to be able to sustain the troops in Ukraine when Rostov is in the hands of Prigozin and Wagner; if you’re a Russian soldier or leader out on the end of the supply lines in southern Ukraine or Crimea, you’re just a hair away from losing everything you need to survive, let alone keep fighting. Prigozin takes over those depots and transportation lines, he really has no choice but to use them to run his operations, and if the regime loyalists want to stop him, they have to destroy everything… Which leaves jack and sh*t for the Russians in Ukraine.
Either way, this is gonna get interesting.
I suppose it could all be some massive info operation, but… I can’t see them doing something like this as a part of a ploy. Too much chance of it spinning out of control.
Strikes me that if this is genuine, then we may well see Putin using tactical nukes on one of his own cities, before Prigozin can use all of the resources he’s apparently just taken effective control over. There are reportedly units of the Russian Army that are rallying to him as we speak, which… Yeah. Who the hell knows what that means?
Assuming that this isn’t some giant info operation intended to rid Putin of Shoigu and Gerasimov. Super-glad I’m not an intel analyst with any military organization, right now. I imagine everyone is quite literally sh*tting bricks, especially with nuke-capable aircraft in the air.
One tactical nuke on Rostov, right now, and this is all over. If Prigozin manages to get out, and more units rally to him? Assuming this is genuine? Yeesh. Just… Yeesh.
The more I watch over on Twitter and the other sites, the more I think that there’s a narrow window where, if this whole thing is genuine, that Putin has a shot at cauterizing it by destroying Rostov.
Something I did not see coming, TBH.
Remains to be seen how crazy the bastards actually are. I suspect that if there’s a real chance of Wagner and Prigozin taking down Shoigu and Gerasimov, along with Putin? Restraint is gonna be off the table.
Factor in the likely piss-poor operational state of most Russian nukes, and… Jesus. This could get really ugly. Say Putin announces he’s nuking Rostov, launches, the weapon fizzles, and there’s Prigozin still standing there. Where the hell does that sequence take us…? Also, what tactical nukes are near Rostov? There was an old depot not too far away from the border with Ukraine, near Belgorod. Supposedly…
May you live in interesting times, indeed.
Possibly, except:
1. Russian citizens might not take too kindly to the Russian government nuking it’s own city. Full-scale rebellions have been started for far less.
2. Rostov-on-Don is THE main logistical hub for the Ukraine war effort. If Put nukes it, pretty much the war (and probably Crimea) is lost.
3. Russian use of nukes could well prod Finland, Poland, Sweden and even the Baltics to rush to create their own nuclear deterrent. Maybe even openly.
A crossing-the-Rubicon step…
The whole question is predicated upon the issue of whether this is a genuine Prigozin-led coup against the Russian MOD, or a Putin-driven ploy to do a controlled demolition on the entire Ukrainian war.
Very hard to ascertain from where we sit, but if I lived in Rostov? My ass would be getting the hell out of town, and as far away from any potential targets as I could get. If this is real…? Putin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov have to put a stop to it, right now. Quickest way to do that? Nuke Rostov and claim that Prigozin got control of some of the ones stored nearby, and they had no choice but to take “extreme measures” so as to put an end to all this.
This is what you get for allowing an unstable country to retain nuclear weapons, TBH. Not too sure what could have been done, but I think we’re about to learn why it’s a bad idea.
Absolutely nuts, TBH.
Couple of other things, too: Say that Shoigu and Gerasimov know that this is a ploy; they want to survive? Best way to do it is remove Prigozin before he gets out of Rostov, and blame him for the bombing. Sort of what Putin did with that apartment complex back in the day. The other thing is that while this might be a “controlled demolition” of the war effort that Putin came up with, there’s nothing saying that it’s all going to stay under control the way he planned it to. It could spin entirely out of control, and then…? Who the hell knows?
The more I think about it, the more I worry I’m not wrong in this regard. We’ll know over the next few days, though.
From the looks of things, the commanders and other key personnel from the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov have rallied to Prigozin’s side in all this, which should imply that the centralized top-down command systems prevalent in Russia have given Prigozin’s team full access to everything logistical and weapons-system in that district.
Which, for those not following, includes nuclear weapons.
I have no idea what is going to happen, but the more of this I see, the more I suspect we’re about to see some very ugly things happen. This is going a little far for just “theater”, even in support of maskirovka. Either the central authorities in Moscow regain control of this situation, or we’re going to see some seriously out-of-control things happening.
I will point out, however, that the quick-and-dirty option is to remove Rostov from the face of the earth and blame Prigozin. Assuming that this isn’t really extreme theater, that is…
I’m hardly an expert on Russian nuclear weapons, but:
1. Just as here, strategic nukes run on a separate chain of command.
2. What little information we have on Russian tactical nukes suggests storage areas further north.
Russia inherited Strategic Rocket Force (their land based ICBM launch, which is a separate command chain from the Army, but still answerable to Shoigu) from Soviet. As far as I know, their ICBM cannot be reprogrammed to fire at different target at tactical target on a short notice like this. They do have nukes that can be carried by cruise missile and bombers that can be deployed.
Did anyone see what the Chechen warlord with his own private army is doing? The only reason he’s the president of Chechenia is that his father struck a deal with Putin to end the 2nd Chechen War and for which he was assassinated. Early in this war, he did pledge his troops for Putin’s effort.
A year ago I stated that the whole Russian-Ukrainian War seemed to be replaying the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05. Now we ha e an internal Russian rebellion to make the analogy stronger.
Well, the point where cautery might have saved the Putin regime from major consequence has passed… Prigozin has gotten out of Rostov and apparently gotten more control over Russian cities on the way north to Moscow. He’s also rallied more Russian military units, which may or may not include forces with control over nuclear weapons.
Apparently, there are signs that this was long-planned; the supposed “shell shortage” he complained about was used to mask Wagner stockpiling munitions, and he probably managed to stockpile the fuel he needed from those events where Wagner was put under investigation for fuel thefts…
Unless this is really excellent play-acting and maskirovka, the odds that Russia presents a coherent military threat to anyone outside Russia has likely gone down for a couple of years. If Prigozin does wind up on top, and is the actual guy in charge…? Yeesh. Couple of years, we are very likely to look back on Putin with fond nostalgia.
This whole thing is rapidly getting past the point of prediction and even understanding, but it sure as hell does not look at all like this was a ploy any more. Ukraine should take advantage of every bit of confusion they can, while they can. I think Prigozin might get really stupid if he manages to win and comes out on top of it all. I’d be thinking strongly about a coup de main attack on that nuke plant, if I were in charge, to try and get it back while things are in a state of confusion in the Russian command channels.
What does a coup / insurrection look like? Wagner taking his forces through Russian centers of power. The army standing down, while he credibly threatens leadership.
What doesn’t it look like? A group of unarmed goofballs trespassing Capitol Hill taking selfies. J6 narrative just died.
So as is often the case, this indirectly makes Trump look better.
Been on the road all day, come back to find that Lukashenko and Prigozin negotiated some kind of deal, and…
Jesus wept. I have even less of an idea about what is going on now than I did when this first lit off…
Was this whole thing a maskirovka to cover withdrawal from Ukraine? WTF, over? I mean… Wasn’t Lukashenko in a Moscow hospital not too long ago, after having something happen at the May festivities?
Seriously… WTF?