The Ukrainian military has launched a long-anticipated counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces, opening a crucial phase in the war aimed at restoring Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and preserving Western support in its fight against domination by Moscow.
Ukrainian troops, including specialized attack units armed with Western weapons and trained in NATO tactics, intensified their strikes on front-line positions in the country’s southeast on Wednesday night, according to four people in the country’s armed forces, beginning a significant push into Russian-occupied territory.
By “southeast” they mean “Zaporizhzhia,” where most observers have expected the main counteroffensive operational push to come.
Reasons for expressing some skepticism is the MSM source, but everyone has been expecting the counteroffensive to kick off for months. Another reason to assume the counter-offensive is real: Western armor has finally been definitively spotted among Ukrainian forces, including Leopard 2s, Bradleys and French AMX-10s.
“More worryingly was what we saw with the tactics of the armored group. Grouping vehicles closer together like that is just asking for trouble.” But Suchomimus notes we saw some stumbles like trhis at the beginning of the very successful Kherson offensive as well.
Developing…
Tags: AMX-10, Bradley Fighting Vehicle, Leopard 2, Military, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Suchomimus, Ukraine, video, Zaporizhzhia
My heart wants to believe they’ll make progress sufficient to get better leverage for something more spectacular later this year or next. My brain says this will at best be a slightly better than average nothingburger. Best of luck to the Ukes. They’re gonna need it.
It would be better to think of recent activity as a fixing operation. Find them, FIX them, fight them, finish them.
As such, it is necessary to establish a blocking position to guard your left flank as you head to Tomak and Mariupol.
All this presupposes that Ukraine can breech the defensive line at some point and then exploit a breakthrough to the South.
The Kharkiv offensive demonstrates that they can gain ground in a hurry but they are facing a better prepared army this time.
Where’s our 19kilo’s at to provide some insight? Looks like they skipped lessons on dispersal in the warp-speeded syllabus. Although they’re nowhere near as good as ours, Russia does have some sensor-fuzed weapons designed for tackling close armored formations in line abreast or on the march that are Smerch capable.
I haven’t seen anything leading me to believe Ukraine has any semblance of an AFV recovery and repair logistics train, which means mobility kills = permanent losses. Anyone with any info that can chime in?
New tanks have better communications, better sights, and better mechanicals, but nothing is immune to hits from above, especially from artillery. Western tanks are better than that fielded by the Russians, but war is a bloody grind. Hitting the opponent’s front line is going to be nasty. The question is whether the Ukrainians can punch a hole in the Russian defenses and exploit that opportunity. There will not be any commercial breaks, so sit back and wait for the engagement to develop. Be patient. Let this game proceed.
There is no question that going head-to-head against a prepared, dug in opponent was going to be difficult. With drones calling the shots, it is a different game.
There are multiple videos online of Ukrainian vehicles recovery teams working. Here’s one.
Looks about like a bunch of breach sites I witnessed going south at the National Training Center. Someone got something wrong, likely suppressive artillery fire and/or concealment.
So long as they got the troops out, BFD. The real question is “Did they learn not to do that…?”
Breaching ops are always, always expensive. That’s why Armor and Cav commanders prefer the bypass.
Me? As an Engineer, I’d strongly suggest using all that neato-keano stuff like the MICLIC and all that traffic as a diversion, put on a “show” for the enemy… And, stealth breach on foot somewhere else where they’re not looking and/or reinforcing. The one time I got them to listen to me on that, we got most of an armor battalion around the defenses and totally dislocated the entire OPFOR effort because they were templating the BLUFOR to do the doctrinal thing and go through the breaches they were “attempting” to put in.
Breaching is expensive, mm’kay? Avoid it, if you can.
You’ll see more of this. Keep an eye out for where it did work, and what they’re doing away from the breaches, which sure as hell won’t be highlighted in the international media until it’s too late for the Russians.
“ Breaching is expensive, mm’kay? Avoid it, if you can.”
There are three reinforced lines between the front line contact area and Melitopol. At some point, the Ukrainians will have to demonstrate the ability to punch through them. It is not like the heavily fortified Maginot Line, where superior mobility allows you to bypass a solitary obstacle and flank the defenders.
Russians have defense in depth in this area. There will be no bloodless victory.
Malthus…
There’s “breaching”, and then there is “BREACHING”.
The US Army tends to go in for the official “Big-B” sort of thing. It’s expensive in men, material, and munitions. If you don’t have air superiority to flatten everything behind the breach point, taking out their overwatch and reserve positions, you’re playing their game. That’s the situation Ukraine is in.
The other way to breach is what I’m talking about: Put on a show, big enough to convince the enemy that you’re doing a “Big-B” breach at Point “A”, while you’re actually working silently over at Point “B”, “C”, and however many you can manage to find your way through their defenses. The Russians don’t have the manpower or the reserves to defend everywhere; you just have to convince them that they see where you’re coming, let them reinforce, and then abandon the effort while you dislocate their entire defense through those other breaches you didn’t make a big deal over.
Indirection, in other words. The good ol’ German “Strategy of surfaces and gaps”, keep the enemy distracted, find the openings and exploit them.
Thanks @Lawrence Person. I hadn’t seen that. Glad they grasped the importance of that capability.