Weeb Union (not my favorite Ukraine war mapper channel) is reporting a huge Ukrainian offensive just got underway in Luhansk:
Takeaways:
“The reported numbers in this offensive is between 35,000 and 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers over a length of about 50 kilometers.”
Goal seems to be full control of the P-66 highway running from Troitske to Kreminna.
“They are trying to attack and capture Svatova.”
“Svatova is the supply hub of the Russian army here in the Luhansk border.”
He postulates this is the last Ukrainian offensive before Russian mobilization reinforcements reach the area. I think he greatly overestimates the effect Russia’s hastily mobilized, ill-equipped and ill-trained new recruits might have on the battlefield.
Not seeing any confirmation elsewhere yet. Developing…
Update: Reporting From Ukraine (which I generally trust more than Weeb Union) also reports a lot of activity in Luhansk, but with a different overall thrust and timeline.
Takeaways:
Russia launched a spoiling attack to prevent Ukraine from advancing on their defensive lines before they were fully repaired, and has some success.
Ukraine launched a counterattack south and north of the main Russian spoiling attack, also with some success.
They also launched a counter-attack in the center of the line, but with more limited success.
He also reports that new Russian conscripts are being put to work building the defensive position, which I can well imagine; any able-bodied adult human should be able to dig a trench. (Unless it’s Texas clay, then all bets are off…)
How to reconcile these reports? Both could be right, just looking at different slices of time.
Do the Ukrainians have any significant reconnaissance capability over enemy territory?
If so, it sure would be nice to mark the final destination of any swarm of trucks leaving Svatova – assuming the Ukrainian attack manages to threaten the supply hub.
The goal is to take everything – Notice Ukraine is attacking at the far end of the south, then switching to the far north. Russian forces have to reinforce one area, then run back to the other area, and so on.
Bottom line – Russia has insufficient forces to defend a very long line of contact. And Ukrainian forces have interior lines of unimpeded travel – they can easily move regiments back and forth between the two fronts.
Russia would be well served by leaving Kherson, just like they left Kiev and Kharkiv. Then they could use the river as a protective line and shorten their line of contact with Ukraine. But having annexed Kharkiv, and it being the only major city they took, the humiliation would be too great. So, they have this see saw fight where they can’t protect either region. Ukraine attacks one, takes a bunch of land, rests and consolidates, re-equips, while the other end starts fighting. Russia never gets a break and is in constant crises.
The extra 300k soldiers might make a difference, but when you’ve already lost 2,000 tanks, and most of your best troops, and planes, it’s not really going to help at this point – I think sending these conscripts in now is likely more trouble than it is worth.
Again – Russia is wildly over extended. better to abandon some of the more grandiose ideas and fall back as far as you have to get a defensible border. That might be back to where you started. Crimea is very defensible – they can probably keep that. Plus, bots of Luhansk and Donetsk
Given everything I’ve ready so far, I am becoming doubtful that Ukraine had anything to do with the kerch bridge explosion. Among other things, Russia announced that they arrested 8 people today, 6 russians, 1 armenian and 1 ukranian. doesn’t sound like a uke plot to me. I suspect internal sabotage
This is certainly the UA’s logical next move. Rating it “plausible”.
Do the Ukrainians have any significant reconnaissance capability over enemy territory?
If so, it sure would be nice to mark the final destination of any swarm of trucks leaving Svatova – assuming the Ukrainian attack manages to threaten the supply hub.
If this is a primary objective, why attack the Kerch bridge?
Distraction.
Like the head fake to the south in last big push that took Izyum, etc.
See ISW assessment of Svtove as key logistics hub, last night
Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)
Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-11
The UA continues to impress.
The goal is to take everything – Notice Ukraine is attacking at the far end of the south, then switching to the far north. Russian forces have to reinforce one area, then run back to the other area, and so on.
Bottom line – Russia has insufficient forces to defend a very long line of contact. And Ukrainian forces have interior lines of unimpeded travel – they can easily move regiments back and forth between the two fronts.
Russia would be well served by leaving Kherson, just like they left Kiev and Kharkiv. Then they could use the river as a protective line and shorten their line of contact with Ukraine. But having annexed Kharkiv, and it being the only major city they took, the humiliation would be too great. So, they have this see saw fight where they can’t protect either region. Ukraine attacks one, takes a bunch of land, rests and consolidates, re-equips, while the other end starts fighting. Russia never gets a break and is in constant crises.
The extra 300k soldiers might make a difference, but when you’ve already lost 2,000 tanks, and most of your best troops, and planes, it’s not really going to help at this point – I think sending these conscripts in now is likely more trouble than it is worth.
Again – Russia is wildly over extended. better to abandon some of the more grandiose ideas and fall back as far as you have to get a defensible border. That might be back to where you started. Crimea is very defensible – they can probably keep that. Plus, bots of Luhansk and Donetsk
“why attack the Kerch bridge?”
Given everything I’ve ready so far, I am becoming doubtful that Ukraine had anything to do with the kerch bridge explosion. Among other things, Russia announced that they arrested 8 people today, 6 russians, 1 armenian and 1 ukranian. doesn’t sound like a uke plot to me. I suspect internal sabotage
Soon the mud, then winter, then mud again.