Busy day, so enjoy another Ukraine video. This is a good summary of the fight up until now:
Some takeaways:
We know what Russian plans were, based on captured documents and a pre-written “analysis” of Russia’s glorious victory someone found on file on a web server.
They expected to be at the gates of Kiev in three days and have everything conquered in two weeks.
Well, we’re almost two weeks in, and they haven’t achieved any of their major objectives. All major cities remain in Ukrainian hands.
One reason they didn’t: NATO alerted them to impending Russian action slightly before it began, so many commanders and units were already dispersed from bases.
They didn’t have enough trucks to begin with and have already lost 200 more.
Also, not only is the Ukrainian mud all but impassable, but their truck tires really suck. (More on this in a day or so.)
We need to pay more attention to the south, where Russian troops attacking from Crimea have done better (but still not great).
Time is not on Russia’s side, as sanctions are crashing their economy hard.
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An important note about the map: very little of the areas colored red inside Ukraine’s February border are actually occupied. The Russians are trying to advance along major roads and rail links, but the “front” is almost completely porous.
200K soldiers is not enough to occupy even a small fraction of Ukraine. Putin still seems to aim at decapitating the country by taking Kiev, but I think that’s an illusion.
Even if he succeeds, weapons will still pour in from Poland. Which means the confrontation with Russia the cowards at State are trying to avoid will happen, but only after the military situation worsens. Typical of the asshats now in charge of the US.
Most concerning are the traditional liberal elite who suddenly find themselves cheering for an American entry into the war. A class of pseudo intellectuals, with no military service, seems to be beating war drums in the hope that Dementia Biden and the Dems gets a war time boost in the polls. They look back and see Bush Sr and ‘W’ riding high on public opinion with successful military actions and seek the same.
Do not forget that even as Russia began urban operations the Pentagon was pushing appropriate pronouns and gender inclusivity instead of enemy recognition.
I’m not impressed with the strategic thinking on display so far. Take Mariopol, Kherson, and Odessa. Then take Mykolaiv. At that point, Ukraine is effectively landlocked. Their logistical situation is dramatically worse, and Putin’s is dramatically better. The fact that he chose to go overland really surprises me. I’m probably missing something.
Russian forces in the south are more mobile because the climate is subtropical and it doesn’t get muddy there like it does in the rest of Ukraine. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the mud won’t last forever. Later this spring they will in all probability face refreshed Russian forces that can move cross-country everywhere, albeit with a higher proportion of less survivable 1980s-standard heavy units.
Overall, this is the classic situation where Ukraine wins by not losing, while for Russia there is no face-saving end state except victory and occupation of all Ukraine. It’s also worth noting that the numerical odds aren’t as much in Russia’s favor as a lot of people claim. Ukraine has nothing to think about except fighting Russia, while Russia must still deter China, prop up Central Asian CIS clients, suppress Chechen terrorists and other minorities, babysit its enormous nuclear arsenal, and try to present a credible defense against potential NATO actions. These other priorities dilute Russia’s manpower reserves well below the traditional 1:3 advantage that an attacker needs. That’s before you consider that relatively little of Russia’s equipment was upgraded to modern standards pre-war, and a substantial part of their best gear has already been lost in Ukraine.
Finally, dictators starting wars like this face a political constraint that democracies don’t–they have to make it look easy in order to keep from appearing weak in the face of public discontent. Russia could, by supreme national effort, take full advantage of its manpower and resource advantages over Ukraine, but Putin can’t afford to bend all of Russian society’s resources toward the war effort like that. Even if he won, the unavoidable message to his domestic opponents would be that the great leader can barely take on Ukraine, let alone NATO, China, or anyone else.
Phil, remember that the Russians know their logistics trains are only capable of extending resupply up to 90 km from supply dumps. Initially. This is why Russian columns were advancing from the border; their supply dumps are located at the railheads inside Russia and Belarus. In the south, they can resupply from the sea and from Crimea…. In order to extend the range of their advancements further into Ukraine, Russia needs to establish advanced supply dumps and secure them, which increases their range into Ukraine.
These logistics problems are deteriorating due to Russian truck losses, dropped bridges inside Ukraine, flooded fields (floodgates opened on dams near Kyiv), the rasputitsa, and Ukrainian strikes on the supply lines and in the rear. Also, Ukrainian destruction of trucks is beginning to eat into Russian logistics further.
But this is why Russia came in overland, they were advancing from supply dumps near the border, and unable to use Ukrainian rail transport.
I don’t think Ukaraine has ANY planes at ANY bases. I think they got the Early Warning from U.S. NATO intel and had already dispersed their planes to 3 car garages and cleared out workshops with wide doors. ( “hey Yugevny, you know that dilapidated old hay barn we used to play in at your granny’s farm, yeah the one with the big doors down the lane from that long stretch of straight road, we need that, call her and tell her we’ll be over with a Mig -29 in about a half hour.”)
What hasn’t been shot down is going to have a hard time getting refueled, repaired, refitted. But I’d expect them to go up once in a while. Ruskies have gone Thermobaric. What they need for those columns …. good old Vietnam ERA Napalm wing bombs. That ought put troops on the road headed back to Belarus and East to Mother Russia.
Hell, just give the Ukrainians the older A-10, and F-16’s with Ukranaine Insignia painted over and all the bombs, missiles, anit-ship missiles ammo and servicing and fuel packages they can handle, and refuel them in NATO airspace from USAF air tankers.
And Keep the B-52’s constantly circling on the the NATO EDGE of the line.
This Escalate to De-Escalate goes both ways.
[b]How I learned to Stop worrying and love the Bomb.[/b]
1. Smart weapons (one shot one kill, if you can see it you can kill it) have turned dumb bombs, rockets, artillery, etc. into useless logistical nightmares.
2. Cheap fast stealthy units armed with smart weapons, are killing old school heavy armored expensive logistical nightmare combined arms units with ease.
Like Mongol horse archers slaughtering Medieval knights 800 years ago.
3. Cities armed with smart weapons are kill boxes for old school military formations. Thunder runs in Baghdad were risky 20 years ago, today they are suicide.
4. The Russian objectives of destroying cities and installing puppet governments. It didn’t work in Afghanistan, why would it work here? Did the British win 245 years ago when they took New York from George Washington? Some very muddy thinking in the Kremlin.
5. As long as Ukraine can be supplied, the Russians can’t win and vica versa. However, the logistical tasks between supplying a few thousand man portable smart weapons or supplying old school armies is much different. The fuel needs of a tank 3 liters/km 200 liters/hr and a pickup 0.15 liters/km are representative at 20 times more. The supply lines therefore will differ in size, and vulnerability. Cutting the supply lines is how you win, when one side runs out of ammo, “run away, run away”.
6. Ukraine will win. They have the tech edge (stingers, javelins, drones). They have the numbers (44 million vs. 150 thousand, 300 to 1). They have the home field advantage. And they have rage “Morale is to the material as 3 to 1” Napoléon.
Ah, the 3 underestimated foes of war:
• General Weather
• Colonel Mud
• Major Distance
An important note about the map: very little of the areas colored red inside Ukraine’s February border are actually occupied. The Russians are trying to advance along major roads and rail links, but the “front” is almost completely porous.
200K soldiers is not enough to occupy even a small fraction of Ukraine. Putin still seems to aim at decapitating the country by taking Kiev, but I think that’s an illusion.
Even if he succeeds, weapons will still pour in from Poland. Which means the confrontation with Russia the cowards at State are trying to avoid will happen, but only after the military situation worsens. Typical of the asshats now in charge of the US.
Most concerning are the traditional liberal elite who suddenly find themselves cheering for an American entry into the war. A class of pseudo intellectuals, with no military service, seems to be beating war drums in the hope that Dementia Biden and the Dems gets a war time boost in the polls. They look back and see Bush Sr and ‘W’ riding high on public opinion with successful military actions and seek the same.
Do not forget that even as Russia began urban operations the Pentagon was pushing appropriate pronouns and gender inclusivity instead of enemy recognition.
I’m not impressed with the strategic thinking on display so far. Take Mariopol, Kherson, and Odessa. Then take Mykolaiv. At that point, Ukraine is effectively landlocked. Their logistical situation is dramatically worse, and Putin’s is dramatically better. The fact that he chose to go overland really surprises me. I’m probably missing something.
Russian forces in the south are more mobile because the climate is subtropical and it doesn’t get muddy there like it does in the rest of Ukraine. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the mud won’t last forever. Later this spring they will in all probability face refreshed Russian forces that can move cross-country everywhere, albeit with a higher proportion of less survivable 1980s-standard heavy units.
Overall, this is the classic situation where Ukraine wins by not losing, while for Russia there is no face-saving end state except victory and occupation of all Ukraine. It’s also worth noting that the numerical odds aren’t as much in Russia’s favor as a lot of people claim. Ukraine has nothing to think about except fighting Russia, while Russia must still deter China, prop up Central Asian CIS clients, suppress Chechen terrorists and other minorities, babysit its enormous nuclear arsenal, and try to present a credible defense against potential NATO actions. These other priorities dilute Russia’s manpower reserves well below the traditional 1:3 advantage that an attacker needs. That’s before you consider that relatively little of Russia’s equipment was upgraded to modern standards pre-war, and a substantial part of their best gear has already been lost in Ukraine.
Finally, dictators starting wars like this face a political constraint that democracies don’t–they have to make it look easy in order to keep from appearing weak in the face of public discontent. Russia could, by supreme national effort, take full advantage of its manpower and resource advantages over Ukraine, but Putin can’t afford to bend all of Russian society’s resources toward the war effort like that. Even if he won, the unavoidable message to his domestic opponents would be that the great leader can barely take on Ukraine, let alone NATO, China, or anyone else.
Russia is in real trouble here.
Phil, remember that the Russians know their logistics trains are only capable of extending resupply up to 90 km from supply dumps. Initially. This is why Russian columns were advancing from the border; their supply dumps are located at the railheads inside Russia and Belarus. In the south, they can resupply from the sea and from Crimea…. In order to extend the range of their advancements further into Ukraine, Russia needs to establish advanced supply dumps and secure them, which increases their range into Ukraine.
These logistics problems are deteriorating due to Russian truck losses, dropped bridges inside Ukraine, flooded fields (floodgates opened on dams near Kyiv), the rasputitsa, and Ukrainian strikes on the supply lines and in the rear. Also, Ukrainian destruction of trucks is beginning to eat into Russian logistics further.
But this is why Russia came in overland, they were advancing from supply dumps near the border, and unable to use Ukrainian rail transport.
I don’t think Ukaraine has ANY planes at ANY bases. I think they got the Early Warning from U.S. NATO intel and had already dispersed their planes to 3 car garages and cleared out workshops with wide doors. ( “hey Yugevny, you know that dilapidated old hay barn we used to play in at your granny’s farm, yeah the one with the big doors down the lane from that long stretch of straight road, we need that, call her and tell her we’ll be over with a Mig -29 in about a half hour.”)
What hasn’t been shot down is going to have a hard time getting refueled, repaired, refitted. But I’d expect them to go up once in a while. Ruskies have gone Thermobaric. What they need for those columns …. good old Vietnam ERA Napalm wing bombs. That ought put troops on the road headed back to Belarus and East to Mother Russia.
Hell, just give the Ukrainians the older A-10, and F-16’s with Ukranaine Insignia painted over and all the bombs, missiles, anit-ship missiles ammo and servicing and fuel packages they can handle, and refuel them in NATO airspace from USAF air tankers.
And Keep the B-52’s constantly circling on the the NATO EDGE of the line.
This Escalate to De-Escalate goes both ways.
[b]How I learned to Stop worrying and love the Bomb.[/b]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snTaSJk0n_Y
I have a few points to make.
1. Smart weapons (one shot one kill, if you can see it you can kill it) have turned dumb bombs, rockets, artillery, etc. into useless logistical nightmares.
2. Cheap fast stealthy units armed with smart weapons, are killing old school heavy armored expensive logistical nightmare combined arms units with ease.
Like Mongol horse archers slaughtering Medieval knights 800 years ago.
3. Cities armed with smart weapons are kill boxes for old school military formations. Thunder runs in Baghdad were risky 20 years ago, today they are suicide.
4. The Russian objectives of destroying cities and installing puppet governments. It didn’t work in Afghanistan, why would it work here? Did the British win 245 years ago when they took New York from George Washington? Some very muddy thinking in the Kremlin.
5. As long as Ukraine can be supplied, the Russians can’t win and vica versa. However, the logistical tasks between supplying a few thousand man portable smart weapons or supplying old school armies is much different. The fuel needs of a tank 3 liters/km 200 liters/hr and a pickup 0.15 liters/km are representative at 20 times more. The supply lines therefore will differ in size, and vulnerability. Cutting the supply lines is how you win, when one side runs out of ammo, “run away, run away”.
6. Ukraine will win. They have the tech edge (stingers, javelins, drones). They have the numbers (44 million vs. 150 thousand, 300 to 1). They have the home field advantage. And they have rage “Morale is to the material as 3 to 1” Napoléon.