BidenWatch for June 8, 2020

I know people have been busy focusing on all the rioting and other Social Justice Warrior insanity, but the inexorable march toward the November general election continues, and first up is Biden passing a big milestone. It’s this week’s BidenWatch!

  • Joe Biden has officially earned enough delegates to clinch the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination.
  • Bloomberg has him at 2,004 pledged delegates, exceeding the threshold of 1,991, plus 372 “super delegates.”
  • So just how is Grandpa Simpson going to adapt to a party where a significant fraction of the young members are rioting and want to abolish police departments? He would like a word with “the youths.”

    Three and a half years later, as American streets fill nightly with young protesters, no one can quite agree on where Joe Biden stands. Is he running ahead of Clinton among the youngest voters owing to their hatred of Trump — and therefore even more securely buckled into the electoral driver’s seat than widely assumed? Or is Biden lagging dangerously behind Clinton’s pace — far enough back that he needs to significantly retool his youth outreach to beat Trump, no matter how unexpectedly strong his position may be among traditionally Republican groups like older voters and suburbanites? And, most urgently, have the recent weeks of unrest simply served to highlight the vast divisions between Biden and Trump — whose unacceptability to younger Americans deepens by the day — or are they instead underscoring a significant disillusionment with all politics, in particular among young black voters, that could spell trouble for the Democrat?

    The confusion is understandable: One CNN analysis of national polling in April showed Biden roughly ten points short of where Clinton was among 18-to-34-year-olds after he was routinely destroyed by Bernie Sanders among this group in the primaries. But the well-respected Harvard Institute of Politics’ poll of 18-to-29-year-olds released a few days later placed Biden right around the 60 percent goal Mook had mentioned, and the former vice-president has consistently led national polls of the entire electorate. Plus, while many Democrats are worried that the protests show young voters ready to make a significant break from voting as a tool of politics as usual, others are convinced they are actually energizing this group to become further involved — usually pointing to the voter-mobilization groups boasting blockbuster registration numbers in recent days.

    This ambiguity has led Democrats to their strategically safest conclusion: They might as well step things up. So in recent weeks, Biden ramped up his digital-outreach hiring and announced the launch of a new, discrete effort within his campaign to marshal resources specifically around organizing young voters. He’s appeared on new kinds of platforms for him, like Megan Rapinoe’s Instagram Live and with Don Cheadle on The Shade Room, while party groups focused on youth turnout, like the Tom Steyer–funded NextGen America, have formally begun orienting more of their programs toward electing him. And, as the protests over the police killing of George Floyd have grown, those close to Biden have been considering calls for him to directly address his involvement with the 1994 crime bill as a way of engaging young black voters about his own growth, and assuaging their concerns. (One Wilmington youth pastor last week urged Biden to do so directly; Stacey Abrams, a potential Biden running mate, soon after told me, “If that is what young people need, then that is what they should have.”)

    Here’s the new head of Biden’s youth outreach group:

    Some polling and wishful thinking strategy talk snipped.

    Senior Democrats see that the youngest voters clearly prefer Biden to Trump, but they still need to organize them to actually vote for the man who, according to CNN’s analysis, won only 16 percent of Democratic primary voters under 30. “A lot of Biden’s support [among young voters] is soft support, so he has to shore up youth support, but also make sure to target all the people who say they don’t know and might vote third party,” explained Ben Wessel, the executive director of NextGen, which endorsed Biden in May and has pledged to spend $45 million this year. “What’s really clear is that Trump has a ceiling of about 33 percent with these folks — I don’t think there’s any risk they’re going to go to Trump. [Democrats] just have to make sure they’re going to Biden.” Now, especially amid the protests, senior Democrats have identified this task as a top priority for Biden — many believe he needs to work hardest to reach black and Latino Americans who feel disengaged from politics and not just the ones who supported Sanders in the primary.

    In late May, the Biden team announced steps it would take toward these ends, forming an effort it calls “League 46” to bring the campaign’s various youth-outreach strands under one umbrella hoisted by senior adviser Symone Sanders. The idea is to have a centralized hub for the campaign’s youth organizing and also to mobilize surrogates, including young lawmakers and activists, to expand Biden’s network with youth voters through events like Zoom happy hours. Already, organizers have held a handful of virtual brunches for young battleground-state voters that are focused on specific topics, like policies to support minority-owned small businesses.

    Yeah, there’s nothing young people love more than Zoom happy hours and brunch.

    Still, some of the usual tools for organizing students may be of limited use in the coming months if colleges begin the fall semester virtually. Wessel, whose group has a major presence on swing-state campuses, pointed out that most students would still likely be in the states where they go to school, but at home. That makes messaging to large groups of students at once trickier, and Democrats are making plans to be as present as possible on the virtual versions of those quads and dorms: “There are so many campus-based meme pages where you can spread content dedicated to people usually on those campuses,” he said. He cited the University of Wisconsin at Madison as an example: The “UW-Madison Memes for Milk-Chugging Teens” Facebook group has nearly 28,000 members; the school has around 32,000 undergraduates.

    I could quote more about their digital outreach plans, but it’s right there where political speak, marketing speak, and tech speak collide, and “engagement” is built on abstractions of abstractions of abstractions, without the benefit of hard-dollar results to measure effectivity. “What is the way to do TikTok that is substantive, on brand for him, and allows him to be the version of himself that has, historically, resonated with young people?” Why, is this not hell?

  • “Hey Joe, where do you stand on defunding police?” “A refund for Grease? Never saw it!”
  • Police unions are not fond of the “new” SJW-approved Biden.
  • President Donald Trump sees an opening:

  • “In the last week alone, two prospects who were initially not considered among the top tier [Vice Presidential] contenders have suddenly burst into contention: Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Florida Rep. Val Demings.” Guess what they have in common.
  • Colin Powell backs Biden. Needles moved: None.
  • Zing!

  • Evidently BidenMarch is an organization that wants another candidate at the top of the ticket because Biden isn’t woke enough. Will they succeed? Eh, probably not. DNC might still replace Biden as they candidate, but BidenMarch will have jack-all to do with it…
  • Shot and three chasers:

  • I repeat myself when under stress I repeat myself when under stress I repeat myself when under stress I repeat—

    

  • Facepalm:

  • Heh:

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    This entry was posted on Monday, June 8th, 2020 at 7:11 AM and is filed under Democrats, Elections, unions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

    • 2 Responses to “BidenWatch for June 8, 2020”

    1. T Migratorious says:
      June 8, 2020 at 6:34 PM

      Lawrence–

      Thanks for the excerpts from the New York magazine article about the “youth” vote. There is no way I could stomach the whole thing. But even the excerpts may be the most deluded, jargon-filled garbage that I’ve read yet this cycle.

      Congratulations!

    2. Micha Elyi says:
      June 8, 2020 at 10:54 PM

      The haters poured hate on Donald Trump because he stood outside a church holding a Bible.

      The same haters poured love on Joe Biden because he stood inside a church holding a card with his talking points.

      If it weren’t for their double standards, Democrats would have
      no standards at all.

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