Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has announced he’s retiring at the end of his term.
Being Speaker of the House of Representatives is a thankless job in the modern era, akin to herding 435 cats, about half of which hate you. It’s a difficult job, which is why I’m going to refrain from throwing the “Swamp Creature! RINO!” labels hurled at Ryan for not getting enough conservative legislature through the house. But there is this undeniable fact: In 1995, Newt Gingrich had 230 Republicans in the House, a narrow Republican Senate majority, and a Democrat in the White House, and got far more conservative legislature passed as Speaker than Paul Ryan has with 241 Republicans in the House, a narrow Republican Senate majority, and a Republican in the White House.
The unwillingness of the modern Republican Party to play hardball (like refusing to pass a debt limit hike unless linked with a complete repeal of ObamaCare) has crippled the ability of the party to make legislative gains commensurate with their majority status. It is hard to tell at this remove whether Ryan’s speakership is a cause, or a symptom, of that failure of nerve.
If I had to bet, I would guess that Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise would be the most likely choice to replace Ryan as Speaker of the House (assuming Republicans retain control in November), based less on my deep understanding of House interpersonal dynamics than the fact that he literally took a bullet for the team.
Tags: Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Republicans, Steve Scalise