In a follow-up on yesterday’s news of Iran attacking Israel directly, it looks like Israel and its allies intercepted more than 99% of incoming drones and missiles.
Israel and its coalition partners in the Middle East successfully defended against an unprecedented Iranian attack featuring hundreds of drones and missiles soaring into Israeli airspace.
The Israel Defense Forces said early Sunday morning Iran launched 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles, with over 99 percent of them getting intercepted. Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari called the defense “a very significant strategic success” as only a small fraction of them reached Israel itself.
A seven-year-old girl suffered severe injuries from shrapnel that fell directly onto her home. She was rushed to the hospital and underwent emergency surgery for a head wound. An estimated 31 people in total were treated for stress and minor injuries.
The U.S., U.K, France, and Jordan came together with Israel to intercept the onslaught of Iranian drones, according to multiple reports. Explosions could be seen over Jerusalem and other parts of the Jewish state as Israel and its allies defended the Jewish state. Most notably, Israel intercepted Iranian missiles headed towards the temple mount, a holy site for Jews, Christians, and Muslims.
Suchomimus is reporting that seven of the missiles that got through, all of which hit Nevatim Air Base.
The Times of Israel is reporting that airbase, which is home to Israel’s F-35s, appears to have been a primary target in the strike.
While a list of sites Iran tried to hit has not been publicized by Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — which launched the drones and missiles — the main target of the attack appeared to be a sensitive airbase in southern Israel, home to the F-35 stealth fighter jet, the military’s most advanced aircraft.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, Iran’s attack comprised 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles — 99% of which were intercepted by air defenses.
All the drones and cruise missiles were downed outside of the country’s airspace by the Israeli Air Force and its allies, including the United States, United Kingdom, Jordan, France, and others — according to the IDF’s top spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari.
Though Israel and Jordan have been quietly working together since they signed a peace treaty in 1994, this is the first instance I can recall of Jordanian planes helping protect Israeli airspace.
The drones had a flight time of multiple hours to reach Israel, and the cruise missiles similarly would have taken around more than an hour to reach their target, according to assessments by defense officials.
The ballistic missiles, however, have a much shorter flight time — around 10 minutes — and are more challenging to intercept, and indeed some managed to evade Israel’s air defenses early Sunday.
The IDF said that the long-range Arrow air defense system managed to knock down the “vast majority” of the 120 ballistic missiles. The Arrow 3 system is designed to take out ballistic missiles while they are still outside of the atmosphere.
We’ve talked about Iron Dome, Israel’s short range air defense system, but less about David’s Sling (intermediate range) and Arrow (long range). David’s Sling is a joint venture between Rafael and Raytheon, while Arrow 3 is jointly developed between Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing.
Unlike the drones and cruise missiles, the ballistic missiles were shot down over Israel, leading the IDF to activate warning sirens over fears of falling shrapnel. The sole injury in Israel due to the Iranian attack was a Bedouin girl who was struck and seriously wounded by falling shrapnel in the Negev desert.
Snip.
Most of the sirens warning against the falling shrapnel and ballistic missiles were activated in the central and eastern Negev region of southern Israel, specifically in the area surrounding Nevatim Airbase. Sirens also sounded in the Jerusalem area, the West Bank, and Golan Heights.
A few of the ballistic missiles managed to bypass the Israeli defenses and strike the Nevatim base. According to the IDF, minor damage was caused to infrastructure at the airbase, but it was operating as usual on Sunday morning.
We’ll have to wait for satellite imagery to confirm that, but I suspect it will.
Why are Israeli air defense systems so much better at intercepting missiles and drones than Russia’s is? For one thing Israel’s systems are probably at least 30 years more advanced than Russia’s predominately ancient, predominately Soviet systems. For another, Russia is 779 times larger than Israel.
Right now it appears that Iran’s attack against Israel has been an expensive, colossal failure.
Update: Suchomimus has a new video up that shows minimal damage to the base.
Tags: Arrow (SAM), Boeing, David's Sling, F-35, France, IDF, Iran, Iraq, Iron Dome, Israel, Israel Aerospace Industries, Jihad, Jordan, Lebanon, Military, Nevatim Air Base, Rafael, Raytheon, Suchomimus, Syria, Temple Mount, UK, video, Yemen
The Israelis shot off somewhere between $ 1 billion and $ 10 billion in ordnance within an 8 hour period. The Iranians? Maybe $ 100 million.
No government can afford to sustain the expense Israel incurred over any period of time, even the United States’. This is the one type of modern warfare where the offense has a distinct advantage.
In the first par, “Iran and its allies” should be “Israel and its allies”.
Corrected.
The Iranians are idiots… You never do like they just did unless you’re certain to take out the enemy and not wind up looking like a buffoon.
The other thing is this: Say they did take out the Israeli F-35 base? Then what? Oh, gee… Did we just create an imperative for the Israelis to launch nukes on us? Why, yes… Yes, we did.
Which then leads to the question of what strategic goal all this was meant to work towards.
On the plus side, it doesn’t look as though the Iranians are any smarter than the current lot of idjits we have in office, so… Yeah. There is that.
“[W]hat strategic goal all this was meant to work towards.”
This was a probing attack. Surprisingly, Israel air defenses allowed Nevatim air base to absorb multiple strikes.
This will have to be speedily addressed. F-35s are valuable assets. Reprisals are to be expected, if only to cripple Iran’s ability to repeat this trick.
If Israel’s air strike capabilities are anywhere near as good as their air defense, Iran will very soon suffer more damage than they are able to give in return.
The problem for Israel is how to decapitate the Iranian regime without triggering US counteraction.
Sadly, our government is obviously on the side of Iran in all of this. I’d like to know how much money got passed to the Obama/Biden campaign back in the day, and why it is that they’ve such a love for Iran. Similarly, why did Jimmy Carter have such a hard-on for the Shah, who was not really all that bad a guy, by comparison to what his fall enabled. Jimmy-boy has at least several million bodies on his counter, thanks to his sanctimonious decisions. I presume he was well-paid by someone, and judging from the money flowing in to his library, I suspect it was the Saudis.
Who, humorously enough, got burnt pretty badly by it all. I think they wanted the Shah gone because of the traditional Shia/Sunni and Persian/Arab hatreds and distrust, but… Man. What an “own goal” that was, enabling decades of unrest and death throughout the region. I rather suspect that whoever came up with that particular “bad idea” in Saudi Arabia suffered some slight loss of prestige and power. Rather like the idiots that enabled bin Laden and his 9/11 scheme.
“This is the one type of modern warfare where the offense has a distinct advantage.”
You may be certain that Israeli offensive capabilities are vastly greater than those of Iran. It was risky to attack Israel directly because it invites a reprisal that Iran cannot readily parry.
As I said… Early days, yet.
The Israelis have some blind spots, and weaknesses. Whether or not those will play into what happens, I don’t know. I also know that Iran is playing with fire, because the Saudis and other Gulf Arab states are looking at what is going on, realizing how close they are to losing their major export shipping lanes in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea… Yeah. Israel comes to them with a plan that includes removing Iran as a threat, and maybe taking Iran’s oil off the market, while preserving the Gulf Arab states…?
Iran is none too bright. The number of people who want them taken down a notch is way too high; they’ve even managed to piss off Pakistan, which isn’t a really good idea, given the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear power with very limited controls. Since the Saudis paid for their nukes, it might just be a few words get put into the right ears, and… Yeah.
The really fun thing, here? Knowing that these idiots are all about as bright as the lot we had running things during the run-up to WWI. No telling where all this ends…
I bet Jordan was involved, if nothing, out of self defense. Even if the Ayatollahs pinky-swear none will land on Jordan, unreliable bombs flying overhead are dangerous. Propulsion systems fail. Guidance systems fail. Whatever can go wrong, and all that. And that’s before considering that Iran might want one or two to accidentally on purpose hit their insufficiently fanatical co-religionists.
Does Jordan really need a better reason to shoot down overflying drones, than out of self-protection?
Kirk, there are some adherents of Twelver sect that genuinely wants Israel to nuke Iran. It’s precondition for the Hidden Iman to return and ushered in a new Islamic golden age.
The typo “Iran and its allies” is still there.
“The problem for Israel is how to decapitate the Iranian regime without triggering US counteraction.”
A coup de main is off the table. There is no one figure whose elimination would topple the regime. Three alternatives remain:
1.) Direct strike: attack and eliminate launch/radar sites that successfully targeted the Nevatin air base.
2.) Indirect attack: a Stuxnet virus that adversely affects
navigational controls of Iranian Shaheed drone/missile assets. This has the additional benefit of making drone exports to Russia unprofitable.
3) Misdirection/Subversion: plant agents who will target the few capable Aviation Engineers who are able to conduct successful air strikes while simultaneously funding anti regime forces who will continue to bomb memorial funerals and similar venues.
“Why are Israeli air defense systems so much better at intercepting missiles and drones than Russia’s is? For one thing Israel’s systems are probably at least 30 years more advanced than Russia’s predominately ancient, predominately Soviet systems. For another, Russia is 779 times larger than Israel.”
it turns out Iran provided 10 days advanced notice of the attack. The Israeli, American, British, French, and Jordanian Air Farce staffs spent those 10 days in meetings planning their defense.
The Ukrainians have not been equally obliging. They are prosecuting a real war, not a theatrical production.
There should be a corollary to this:
When your enemy makes an entirely impotent attack, for goodness sake don’t ridicule him.
This was a face-saving move by Iran. Slow drones? With ABC News of all places telling the world when they were on the way, and how long they’d take to get there? After 10 days’ warning?
Only injured a bedouin, and that not from the weapon but from falling debris? A person most institutions wouldn’t take time to double-check on later?
Only damage was a tiny crater photographed by Israel, next to a fresh pile of dug-up dirt (pay no attention to that)? To an airbase that still fully functions?
Everything about this is waaaaay too convenient. I expect Iran had no intention of hurting anyone, and may well have choreographed this event directly with USA, UK, even IDF.
Remember …
Remember January 2020?
Remember when we whacked Soleimani, and then Iran attacked Al Asad (US base) in Iraq? That attack showed great precision, and … nobody was killed. * Afterward, Trump himself tweeted, “This was a fantastic attack!” Wait, what?!
It’s theater. Let Iran have their little “win”. No need to respond to this one. No need for Israel to do anything in response to this. It could have been far, far worse.
* I admit I’m conveniently sidestepping the shoot-down of Flight 752 … that’s still a head-scratcher for me … at any rate, that wasn’t an attack by Iran on USA forces
This time for sure! Presto!
The US and Western Europe better realize that Iran, North Korea, Russia and China have geared their economies to wartime production. By eventually throwing enough lower cost weapons at us we will go thru our high end weapons stockpiles and be left with our pants around our ankles. This is nothing new and has been ignored by all politicians here and in Europe for decades to or combined detriment.
I must say, from my playground and sandlot experiences, I’m not sure how many times I’m required to let a big, clumsy, slow, frothing-at-the-mouth guy swing at my head before I put him on the ground.
I appreciate all the strategies proposed here. Malthous offers 1 through 3, and I endorse them all. Find Iranian revolutionary guard officers anywhere in the world who can be whacked, and whack them. Cripple the ability of the Iranians to ship oil from Kharg Island for a bit. Pipelines are susceptible to damage (see the Baltic Sea for details). And while a military is, in the end, its people and not its infrastructure, blowing up the Ministry of Defense in Tehran wouldn’t be such a bad idea, just to send a message.
But doing nothing and letting the clumsy oaf keep swinging at my head? No thanks, I’m neither crazy nor stupid.
“The Ukrainians have not been equally obliging. They are prosecuting a real war, not a theatrical production.”
This was not play acting so much as it was a military drill. Iran could launch a probing attack with no real expectation of severe reprisal so long as they could hide behind Joe Biden’s skirt.
“See, we attacked the kaffirs and their military response has been crippled!”
A bully breaks my Syrophoenician nose and then a Gentile “peacemaker” inserts himself into the quarrel shouting, “No more! There has been enough violence.” Is the matter resolved?! No, the broken nose will suggest to the attacker that his aggression will not be punished, which may very well remove any reservation he has about breaking my arm ( or neck) next time.
Biden’s prohibition against retaliation will not lessen the likelihood of escalation; it will only provide Iran the with comfortable illusion that they have free reign to continue with their war plans.
Calling this an “expensive, colossal failure” is over the top. Just on the dollars alone, all the reporting I’ve seen has Israel spending at least two orders of magnitude more to defend itself as Iran is spending to attack it. This is the same asymmetrical situation as the U.S. Navy and the Houthis. Cheap drones are changing the face of warfare.
I had just watched a Scott Ritter interview with Jimmy Dore before reading this. He is very anti-Israel, just as you are pro-Israel, but this seemed to be confirming at least in part what he was claiming, specifically that Iran was demonstrating that the Iron Dome cannot stop its missiles by attacking Nevatim, with the greatest antimissile defenses anywhere. As he noted, Iran didn’t even use its hypersonic missiles for this attack. There is interesting footage in that interview showing the missiles getting through and maneuvering amidst what appear to be drones being shot down. (Your article says none of the drones reached Israel.)
Ritter’s interpretation of this was that Iran’s missile deterrence is sufficient at this point against anything but nukes. That would be a dire situation for Israel if that’s the case since first use of nukes would, in my opinion, be its end politically even if Russia and China let it happen.
“Ritter’s interpretation of this was that Iran’s missile deterrence is sufficient at this point against anything but nukes.”
Iran’s “missile defense” did little to ward off the decapitation strike against their Syrian consulate, which resulted in the deaths of two generals and five other officers.
What hinders Israel from repeating this tour de force?
Ritter also predicted that the U.S. would lose the war in Iraq and that Russia would handily defeat Ukraine in 2022.
Add to that the fact that he’s a convicted sex offender, and I give his opinion any weight.
It’s worth noting what Iran (and China and Russia) gained from this.
Real-world experience watching very closely how US, Israeli, et al defenses work. What % of missiles were downed by US vs Israel? At what point? What level of barrage would overwhelm the defense?
That kind of intel is worth a *lot* of money. More than was spent on the weapons, that’s for sure.
At the same time … attacking an embassy / consulate was idiotic. Some form of retaliation was required, and as this one caused so very little casualties, aaiight then.
I won’t shed any tears over IRGC leaders getting whacked of course. Though it may be wiser to do it with deniability, to avoid putting Tehran in a position where they have to retaliate.
“This was not play acting so much as it was a military drill. Iran could launch a probing attack with no real expectation of severe reprisal so long as they could hide behind Joe Biden’s skirt.”
NSA Jake the Flake Sullivan even negotiated the size and timing of the strike package with the Iranians. This was a theater production staged by the Biden Administration to keep their secular Jewish donors from abandoning the Democrats en masse after FJB coddled the post October 7th antisemitic protests.
Bingo. Biden is likely telling Bibi not to spoil the kayfabe by retaliating.