Since there’s not enough reporting of the negative case, I just wanted to report that power is not out in Austin right now.
A powerful cold front (that much talked-about “polar vortex”) rolled into the state over the weekend and dropped temperatures here in central Texas into the high teens. Anyone who remembers the ice storms of 2021 and 2023 knows that this is potentially a recipe for widespread power outages.
That does not appear to be the case this time. ERCOT is reporting enough supply to meet demand.
Austin Energy’s outage map currently shows 5 outages and 38 customers without power. Which is, in a city as big as Austin, statistical noise.
Likewise, the state outage map shows no widespread outages, with the biggest being some 8,000+ customers (among 2,000,000+) for Oncor (Dallas Metroplex).
Maybe ERCOT was better prepared this time. Or maybe it was the fact this system didn’t bring nearly the amount of freezing rain and snow we saw in 2021 and 2023. Or maybe it’s just the widespread arboreal destruction we saw in 2021 and 2023 means that the overwhelming majority of trees and limbs likely to take out power lines have already been cleared out.
In related news, HEB was supposedly picked clean of the usual emergency staples (bread, milk, etc.) this weekend, but in my trip today, the bread aisle was mostly full, with just a few empty shelf spots, and the rest of the store seemed similarly well-stocked. (Save the cheese and luncheon meat case, but a sign said that was a freezer issue.)
Here in Austin, it’s supposed to be in the teens until midweek, then fluctuate between just above to just below freezing through the weekend. here’s hoping the power stays on all through that.
And here, for prepping and filthy lucre purposes, is my most recent prepping supply list.
Tags: Austin, Austin Energy, ERCOT, ice storm, Metroplex, Texas, weather
Good news all around. The cold front hit on a weekend when demand would have been a little lower than otherwise and wind and solar kept producing a little (still a slight risk before the sun gets high enough to hit the solar panels tomorrow).
Also, it’s often overlooked, but the electric outages in 2021 were at least partially due to gas outages. Gas pressure started to drop a day before the lights went out because gas lines froze up and gas producers started failing. People think ERCOT is bad, but the RailRoad Commission is as useless as tits on a bull. They have the same relationship with gas providers as the FDA has with Pfizer: not so much “regulation” as “promotion”. After 2021, a lot of gas power plants installed on-site gas storage to make up for the RRC’s inability to keep the gas running (see Atmos, 2023).
Thank God it all worked this time.
It didn’t help that ERCOT power-cycled the Permian Basin during the 2021 cold snap. That was epic stupid, and they’re not going to do that again…
Jan 2021: New Biden Admin looking to hurt Texas and prove their Environmental Cojones
Lots of new EPA/DOE environmkental rules facing Power Generators
1)replaced pipeline nat gas fueled ICE compressors to power pipelines with grid-powered electric pumps from Permian to Houston per EPA mandate (tiny theoretical emissions diff).
So now now Nat Gas fuel gets to metropolitan power plants if the grid shuts down. Pipelines go from totally self-sufficient + resilient to totally dependent on grid
2) Pipeline ops classified as “industrial interruptible” customers during electric shortages
3) ~30-40% of TX power from “renewables” that utterly predictably failed at the same time during freeze
4) several reliable coal plants shut down for emissions. Plants still operable w/ plenty of coal but lack emissions permits
2021 Grid collapse ONLY happened bc USG refused to allow operable plants to save the grid from collapse AND ERCOT rules forced grid to turn off power to pipelines in West Texas
ERCOT + TX Gov share some culpability bc under threats from Federal DOJ, they refused to seize the assets and force them to operate despite Federal rules.
2021 Grid collapse was a purely manmade disaster. 2024 is an election year. Maybe Feds are a little less openly vindictive with an election in < 12 months.
Maybe we learned something. Does not seem to be repeating.
French toast: the official food of winter storms.
CenterPoint Energy in Houston shows about 1,000 outages over the last 24 hours (that a break which could affect many customers). These are isolated events likely caused by trees, animals, or car wrecks damaging lines rather than lack of power supply. We had two in my neighborhood both lasting less than half hour.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which oversees the state’s power grid, issued conservation appeals on both Sunday and Monday. Because of cloud cover and low wind, the “renewable” or “green” energy generators have not been producing at the levels needed.
Cloud cover and low wind are conditions that occur every year in January and February.
We call these conditions: Winter.
No problems over here in Livingston. But then again, we’re not Ercot. MISO (Mid Continent Supply from here thru Lousiana.
Here in NW Wyoming my back deck thermometer read -38°F on Saturday morning. Fortunately we had brought all the brass monkeys inside Friday night.