National results were a deep disappointment to Republicans expecting a red wave. What about the results in Texas? Better:
Republicans retained all statewide races.
Incumbent governor Greg Abbott walloped Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke by about a point less than he walloped Lupe Valdez in 2018, the year O’Rourke got within three points of Ted Cruz in the Texas senate race. 2018’s Betomania seems to have slightly raised the floor for Democrats in various down-ballot races, but not enough for them to be competitive statewide. This is O’Rourke’s third high-profile flameout in five years, and one wonders whether out-of-state contributors are getting wise to the game.
Vote totals seem down a bit from 2018, with the governor’s race drawing about 266,000 fewer voters.
Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick increased the margin by which he beat Mike Collier (also his opponent in 2018) from about five points to about ten points.
For all the talk of Ken Paxton being the most vulnerable statewide incumbent, he also won his race over Rochelle Garza by about 10 points, as opposed to a three and half point victory over Justin Nelson (a man so obscure he has no Wikipedia entry) in 2018. (Thought experiment: Could Beto have beaten Paxton this year? My gut says his money would have made it a lot closer than his race with Abbott, but I think he still would have lost by about the same margin he lost to Ted Cruz in 2018. But his lack of a law degree would have worked against him, and I doubt his ego would ever consider running in a down-ballot race like AG…)
In the Comptroller, Land Commissioner and Agriculture Commissioner races, Republicans were up a bit around 56%, and Democrats were down a bit more. (And Dawn Buckingham replacing George P. Bush should be a big improvement.)
Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian had the biggest spread between him and Democratic opponent Luke Warford, 15 points (55% to 40%).
Three Republican statewide judicial race winners (Rebeca Huddle in Supreme Court Place 5, Scott Walker in Court of Criminal Appeals Place 5, and Jesse F. McClure in Court of Criminal Appeals Place 6) were the only statewide candidates to garner 4.5 million or more votes (possibly due to the absence of Libertarian candidates).
Of three closely watched Texas majority Hispanic house seats, only Monica De La Cruz in TX15 won, while Myra Flores (TX34) and Cassy Garcia (TX28) lost.
Though Republicans came up short in those two U.S. congressional seats, statewide they “narrowly expanded their legislative majorities in both the House and Senate.”
In the House, the GOP grew its ranks by one — giving them an 86-to-64 advantage in the 150-member chamber for the 2023 legislative session. The Senate has 31 members, and Republicans previously outnumbered Democrats 18 to 13. The GOP will hold at least 19 seats next session. Democrats will hold at least 11, though they are leading in one Senate race that is still too close to call.
The Republicans’ victories were felt prominently in South Texas, where the GOP won key races after targeting the historically Democratic region of Texas after Democratic President Joe Biden underperformed there in 2020.
In House District 37, now anchored in Harlingen, Republican Janie Lopez beat Democrat Luis Villareal Jr. The seat is currently held by Democratic state Rep. Alex Dominguez, who unsuccessfully ran for state Senate rather than seek reelection. The district was redrawn to cut out many of the Democratic voters in Brownsville from the district to the benefit Republicans. Biden carried District 37 by 17.1 points in 2020 under the old boundaries, but would have won by only 2.2 points under the new map.
Lopez would be the first Latina Republican to represent the Rio Grande Valley in the House.
In another major South Texas victory, Rep. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City, who defected from the Democratic Party and ran this cycle as a Republican, won reelection handily.
In another crucial battle in southern Bexar County, which has traditionally been dominated by Democrats, Republican incumbent John Lujan prevailed over Democrat Frank Ramirez, a former San Antonio City Council member.
Who did well? Incumbent Republican congressman Dan Crenshaw. Remember this ad from 2020? In addition to Crenshaw winning reelection by some 73,000 votes, August Pfluger and Beth Van Duyne won reelection to their districts, and Wesley Hunt, who ran a close-but-no-cigar race for TX7 in 2020, managed to win the race for newly created TX38 this year. (My guess is that, just like Rep. Byron Donalds (FL19) and Rep. Burgess Owens (UT4), Hunt will be blocked from joining the Congressional Black Caucus.)
Is there any sign of black support for Democrats eroding? A bit. In 2018, Democratic Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (one of the very dimmest bulbs in congress) received 75.3% of the vote from her black and Hispanic majority district. In 2020, she received 73.3%. In 2022 (post redistricting), she received 70.7%. Slow progress, but progress none the less.
Unfortunately, corrupt Harris County Democratic head Lina Hidalgo managed to edge her Republican opponent by a mere 15,000 votes.
Leftwing fossil Lloyd Doggett was elected to his fifteenth term in congress, crushing his Republican opponent for the newly created 37th congressional district, while communist twerp Greg Casar (formerly of the Austin City Council) was elected to the 35th, formerly Doggett’s prior to redistricting.
Tarrant County had been trending more purple recently, going for O’Rourke over Cruz there by about 4,000 votes in 2018, and going for Biden over Trump by a mere 2,000 votes (less than .3%). But Abbott beat O’Rourke there by some 25,000 votes.
Jefferson County (Beaumont) is another county that’s flipped back. It went for O’Rourke over Cruz by about 500 votes,and flipped back to Trump over by around 500, but Abbott walloped O’Rouke by over 8,000 votes this year.
The runoff in the Austin Mayoral race will be on December 13 between hard lefty Celia Israel, and soft lefty retread Kirk Watson. If Watson picks up a clear majority of third place finisher Jennifer Virden’s voters (which seems likely), he should win.
As I mentioned in the Liveblog, the social justice warrior slate beat the conservative slate in Round Rock ISD.
This is a side effect of Williamson County, formerly a reliable Republican bulwark, becoming decidedly more liberal as Austin has become a hotbed of radical leftism. Abbott still edged O’Rourke by some 2,000 votes here, but Biden beat Trump by about 4,000 votes in 2020.
If 1978 is the year this election reminds me of nationally, then 1984 is the template year for Texas politics. In 1982, Phil Gramm resigned after Democrats threw him off the House Budget Committee (because why would you want a professional economist on a budget committee?), switched parties, and ran for his own vacancy in a special election as a Republican, winning handily.
Gramm’s switch showed that the time for conservatives to remain welcome in the Democratic Party was drawing to a close, and the way he resigned to run again rather than just switching made him a folk hero among Texas republicans. In 1984, Gramm ran for the senate, walloping Ron Paul, Robert Mosbacher, Jr. (a sharp guy who eventually did better in business than politics) and former Texas gubernatorial candidate Hank Grover in the Republican primary before decisively beating Lloyd Doggett (yep, the same one that’s still in congress) in the general by some 900,000 votes.
Gramm’s victory showed that the political careers of conservative Democrats who switched to the Republican Party could not only survive, but thrive. Between 1986 and the late 1990s, a series of high profile conservative Texas Democrats (including Kent Hance and Rick Perry) would switch from an increasingly radical Democratic Party to the GOP.
So too, this year showed that Hispanic Democrats could leave a party increasingly out of tune with people they represented (largely hard-working, law-abiding, entrepreneurial, conservative, and Catholic) for the Republican Party and win. Republicans may not have flipped terribly many seats in south Texas, but except for recent special election-winner Myra Flores, they held their gains.
The combination of Trump’s distinct appeal to working class Hispanics, deep opposition to disasterous Democratic open borders policies, and Gov. Abbott’s long term dedication to building out Republican infrastructure there have all primed Hispanics to shift to the GOP. Just as it took years for all Texas conservatives and most moderates to abandon the Democratic Party (Republicans wouldn’t sweep statewide offices until 1998), it will take years for the majority of Hispanics to switch.
But if Democrats continue to push open borders, social justice, radical transgenderism, soft on crime policies, high taxes and socialism, expect Hispanics to make that switch sooner rather than later.
That’s my Texas race roundup. If you have any notable highlights you think I should have covered, feel free to share them in the comments below.
Tags: 2022 Attorney General's Race, 2022 Election, 2022 Lt. Governor's Race, 2022 Texas Governor's Race, 35th Congressional District, 37th Congressional District, 38th Congressional District, Alex Dominguez, August Pfluger, Austin, Beth Van Duyne, Beto O'Rourke, black, Burgess Owens, Byron Donalds, Cassy Garcia, Celia Israel, Dan Crenshaw, Dan Patrick, Dawn Buckingham, Elections, Frank Ramirez, Greg Abbott, Greg Casar, Harlingen, Hispanics, Janie Lopez, Jesse F. McClure, John Lujan, Ken Paxton, Kirk Watson, Lina Hidalgo, Lloyd Doggett, Luis Villareal Jr., Luke Warford, Mike Collier, Monica De La Cruz, Myra Flores, Phil Gramm, Rebeca Huddle, Rio Grande Valley, Rochelle Garza, Round Rock, Round Rock ISD, Ryan Guillen, Scott Walker (Texas), Tarrant County, Texas, Texas 15th Congressional District, Texas 28th Congressional District, Texas 34th Congressional District, Wayne Christian
This entry was posted on Saturday, November 12th, 2022 at 2:21 PM and is filed under Austin, Border Control, Crime, Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Social Justice Warriors, Texas. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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I live in Round Rock, and if I didn’t follow sites like Texas ScoreCard I would have had no idea who was the reform slate and who wasn’t. Everyone advertised themselves as “reform” or something like it. The actual conservative slate sent out a couple of mailings, but there wasn’t much if anything to distinguish their advertising from other mailings.
One of the lone wolf reformers, Linda Avila (I don’t know if she was real or not, nor was I in when she came by) is the only school board candidate who visited our neighborhood, which meant she was the only person conservatives on my street put a sign in their yard for.
What’s your take on Crenshaw? He’s unpopular in the Instapundit commentariat, and apparently Tucker Carlson doesn’t care for him (Eyepatch McCain). I’ve read that he’s supported red-flag laws and gotten filthy rich since entering Congress.
Add one more black Republican in the House: John James of Michigan, who won after two unsuccessful statewide runs for US Senate. Good luck to all four.
Four is too many for the Black Caucus to exclude without questions about their non-partisanship being raised.
The judge races break my heart.
I don’t know if you’ve seen the StopHoustonMurders billboards or ads, or heard their radio ads. Fan-freaking-tastic work, seriously. They give the details of Democrat judges who have let turds go free, only for those turds to end up murdering someone.
And yet … looking at the Harris County judge races, the Democrats won up and down the line, by the usual 51-49 margin.
I had really high hopes. Remember Randy Lewis? Guy who’d been arrested 67 times and yet allowed to go free, and who murdered an elderly grandma? The judge involved won his race 51-49 back in 2018. That situation has happened over, and over, and over. It’s so nauseating and depressing.
I really hoped this PAC, these ads, it would make a difference. All over I see yard signs saying if you want less crime, vote Republican judges.
But what happened? What the hell happened?
I feel like this is my Don’t Look Up moment. We have the details. “We have the data,” as Leo DiCaprio’s character said. And yet Houstonians decided to vote for easy-on-criminals Democrat judges all the same.
I’m pissed. This should have been a sweep. The billboards are everywhere, I’ve seen and heard the ads everywhere. I’ve seen the news articles for years. But NOTHING CHANGED.
And don’t get me started on red-leaning district polling sites running out of paper, by some “coincidence”.
Howard,
I gotta believe had the SC not over turned Roe we might have picked up a few more votes on the anti-murder ticket. I just know too many people that can’t pull the R lever (out of date phrase) because of various positions they attribute to the right.
Look at NY re-electing their soft on crime Governor who either gas lights the statistics or blames the system.
There has to be a way to extend the Republicans dominance at the state wide level to urban counties and suburbs. Florida perhaps provides a guide. Abbott is not a DeSantis in being effective. He should have moved on Uvalde rather than wait on the slow movement of reviews and other ass covering.
The Leander ISD board appears to have lurched to the left as well. Every single winner was the one for each seat who struck me as the most progressive.
Crenshaw is a bit of a squish. He’s a cautious, consensus-driven politician, much like Abbott, who doesn’t make mistakes. he has a natural speaking style that’s well suited for the momen6t and has a good eye for talent.
Thanks Lawrence. Timid squishes are not what we need right now:-(.
Where were the Green Party candidates to balance out the vote sucking from the libertarians?
The Greens only ran three statewide candidates this year, for Governor, Land Commissioner and Railroad Commissioner, doing more poorly than the Libertarians.
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