When the data ends up giving you results that are different than what you expected, it’s time to step back and try to figure out whether your data is wrong or your theory is wrong.
The theory was that Republicans were going to enjoy a red wave election year, with some analysts going so far as to predict a red tsunami.
That didn’t happen.
Republicans will probably take the House, while control of the senate might not be decided until the Georgia runoff, and Republicans seem to have lost a couple of governorships.
Other widely hailed trends that didn’t happen:
The only place Republicans really seemed to have overperformed is in Florida, where DeSantis whomped turncoat Charlie Crist in the governor’s race (a far cry from the squeaker he won against Andrew “Gay Meth Orgy” Gillum in 2018), and added either four or five U.S. House seats. (They say four, but seem to be counting FL28 (a newly created seat) as a GOP “hold.”)
If there’s a previous election year this reminds me of, it’s 1978. Despite raging inflation and Jimmy Carter’s feckless policies, Republicans picked up only three senate seats and 15 house seats. (Remember, this was a time when Democrats held a much larger advantage in the House than today.) They would do much better in 1980.
But so far, 2022 is a big disappointment for Republicans.
One evergreen takeaway: Never trust polls, no matter whether they’re good or bad for your side.
Tomorrow: A closer look at Texas results.
Tags: 2022 Election, Democrats, Elections, Florida, Jimmy Carter, Republicans, Ron DeSantis
Question I can’t stop asking: how can Americans look at what Democrats have done for the past 3 years, and think, “Yep.”
As Bill Maher put it, if people have a choice between dogshit and the alternative you’re offering, and those people have to think carefully about that choice … what the hell must they think of you?
A lady acquaintance, being familiar with red flows, told me rather than a Red Wave this was just Mid-Cycle Spotting.
Note where the voters were most enthused about the Republicans; Florida. What is different there?
DeSantis, who has the courage of his convictions. Everywhere else, the Republicans run as Democrat Light. And, they lose; why have the light beer when the real stuff is right there on the shelf next to it?
As well, the Republicans ran lousy candidates. Who the hell came up with Dr. Oz, the Turkish wonder? Nearly anyone else could have won against Fetterman, but some idiot thought Oz was a good idea.
Are there any serious grown-ups in the Republican Party who want to win? I am coming to doubt that; it’s looking to me more and more like the Republicans are captured creatures of the Democratic overparty, playing along in order to lull the rubes. I mean, think about it: When have they ever acted to roll back the BS? Ever? We gave them the Executive, the Senate, and the House in 2016. Did they do what they promised, ending Obamacare? Nope; they acted like dogs who’d finally caught the car they were chasing, and didn’t do a damn thing with any of that.
Why vote for them?
The establishment Republicans are as bad as your average Democrat, I’m afraid. Why bother voting for them? All they do is a whole lot of nothing. I’m done with the bastards, TBH. All I do now is vote against the incumbent, whoever they are. If I can find a politician of any stripe I can hold my nose and vote for, I’ll vote for them. Otherwise… Incumbents, out.
There are still many enclaves of Liberty seeking Americans. There just happen to be larger cesspools of Liberty ceding grifters in our country that can vote by mail.
As dear leader would say – I got two words for ya’ – Fetterman and Lake.
https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2022/11/two-thoughts.html
Thank you for the 1978 perspective. Otherwise, to your bullet points, I would have added the notion that the President’s party does poorly in midterms. That was definitely true for Bush in 2006, Obama in 2010 and 2014, and somewhat for Trump in 2018. All of those Presidents were in many ways more popular than Biden. Yet those Presidents couldn’t carry their popularity to their party. Perhaps this was due to cheating that suggests Republicans may never have fair national elections. However, I don’t think it explains all. The answer may be in similarities to 1978.
Unfortunately, a potential undoing from both Carter and Biden may be befriending an unpopular Iranian government. I’m not looking forward to such a day again.
Howard wrote
>Question I can’t stop asking: how can Americans look at what Democrats >have done for the past 3 years, and think, “Yep.”
>
>As Bill Maher put it, if people have a choice between dogshit and the >alternative you’re offering, and those people have to think carefully about >that choice … what the hell must they think of you?
Keep in mind that, unlike conservatives who are evidence-based thinkers, liberals are emotion-based thinkers. Conservatives take action to resolve issues; liberals take action to make themselves feel better. That’s why conservatives tend to come up with rational solutions to problems and liberals tend to come up with irrational ones.
Of course, conservatives can see the many issues raised by Democratic control of government the last two years and vote accordingly. Unfortunately, conservatives are not the majority in this country; their numbers are roughly subequal with liberals and independents, so they can’t by themselves elect the proper people to provide good governance. Some appeal has to be made to liberals and independents. However, due to liberals’ emotion-based thinking, they’ll go through an incredible amount of rationalization and delusional thinking rather than give up on their core identities as liberals. Independents aren’t much better; the mere fact that they try to synthesize two irreconcilable political philosophies such as contemporary conservatism and liberalism indicates a lack of rational thought as well (which is why the late Rush Limbaugh observed that self-proclaimed independents are simply liberals who are embarrassed to call themselves liberals).
Because these people are inured from rational persuasion, the only thing that can change them is irrational persuasion: pain. They have to be hurt, and hurt badly, before they begin to see the light. The year 1978 is an apt comparison. It was obvious then to rational people that Jimmy Carter and the Democrats were screwing things up badly, but like today rational people were in the minority, so the Democrats kept running things the next two years. Only after the resulting high inflation and unemployment and accompanying stagflation and recession, the Iranian Revolution and the ensuing hostage crisis (Leland may well be right on Iran becoming a factor today), the gasoline shortage and associated skyrocketing gas prices, increasing crime, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan inflicted enough pain on the left and center so that by 1980 they finally began to remedy the situation by enough of them voting for Ronald Reagan to elect him president.
That’s probably what’s going to have to happen today. While we’re suffering right now, apparently it isn’t enough. The election of a Republican House (and maybe Senate) is a start, but it looks like we’re going to have to suffer even more. The tragedy is that those of us who see the universe as it is rather than what we want it to be are going to have to take collateral damage from the education the left and center is going to receive, and there’s going to be a lot of needless suffering wrought upon undeserving people as a consequence. Such has been historically the fate of a people whose chosen leaders in their delusions shake their fists at the universe and dictate to it the way things should be; in response, the universe has a nasty habit of reminding us the way things actually are.