Things in Ukraine are moving so fast that the only thing I can be sure of is that what I post here will probably be obsolete before I press the Publish button.
What was a very successful Ukrainian counter offensive in Kharkiv Oblast is now a massive rout of Russian forces throughout the extent of their northeast line. All of Kharkiv (save a tiny bit east of the Oskil River) has been liberated.
“Ukraine controls all the land west of the Oskil River.”
The Russians left massive amounts of equipment behind, too much for any sort of orderly withdrawal, and they don’t appear to have torched any of it, either. They just turned tail and fled. “This is an armored brigade worth of vehicles. Looking at this, I think Russia has given more military aid to Ukraine than the United States.” Also, Russian civilians are fleeing the captured territories, only to be refused entry at the border.
“Fuck, every one of us can get a tank.”
Rus, Rus, Rus of the Ukraine
Fleeing as fast as he can flee
Rus, Rus, Rus of the Ukraine
Watch out for that tree!
Got to disagree with the first video: it’s damn hard to see if you’re peering out the forward driver’s port, and it’s quite possible the tank driver was unaware troops were falling off.
It looks like logistical problems and those long-documented Russian morale problems have finally intersected to destroy the ability of numerous Russian units to function as effective fighting forces. Here’s a recorded Russian phone soldier’s phone call from back in August illustrating low morale and how much Russian soldiers hate the war:
Russian soldiers don’t seem to be eager to die for a mistake. The extent to which Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast have been routed and broken makes it an open question whether any can be reconstituted as effective fighting forces and redeployed to Donbas. That may explain why Russia seems to be trying to carry out a stealth conscription mobilization:
On their way out, the Russian army has given Ukraine a parting gift: destruction of Kharkiv’s civilian infrastructure. “Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were cut off. In Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy there are partial problems with power supply.”
Total dick move, but not necessarily a war crime; power generating facilities are usually considered legitimate military targets. Russia obviously held off attacking them because they expected to control the territory.
Now that Ukraine has that territory back, a lot more Russian logistic routes (especially those out of Belgorod) are under threat of disruption from Ukrainian artillery. Indeed, Belgorod now loses a lot of value as a logistics hub, since it’s farther away from the frontlines, on worse roads. Russia may shift to routing everything through Kamensk-Shakhtinsky or Rostov-On-Don.
Ukraine continues to grind out more modest gains in the Kherson counteroffensive. As for the next phase of the war, it’s an open question whether to attempt to push Russian troops out of Luhansk next, or to apply more pressure toward the center of the Russian line and retake Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. But it’s clear that right now Ukraine enjoys the strategic initiative.
Tags: Belgorod, Foreign Policy, Kharkiv, Military, Oskil River, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, tanks, Ukraine, video
Off-topic, but …
Wasn’t it September 11, 2019 that WIV deleted its online virus database without warning? I’m trying to find the details, but – of course – it’s either scrubbed from the web or the facts were suppressed in the first place.
Hope the Uks don’t get caught up in the pursuit. Their culmination point may be fast approaching. The dangers of over-extension are many and can creep up on you. A certain amount of healthy caution is advised.
A retreat with losses of materiel is significant, but large surrenders of personnel and capitulations by high-ranking officers are necessary to a victory.
looks like they’re giving up on holding anything outside Donbas
where they probably should have stayed to begin with
international community rightly freaked out when they went after Kiev
at least Russia has clearly demonstrated they’re no conventional threat to the West
if anyone was still wondering
Pretty close. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349073738_An_investigation_into_the_WIV_databases_that_were_taken_offline
Or maybe their efforts to draw the UKs out of their fortified positions went too well. We will see what happens shortly to be sure of what is real and what is not.
Ukraine ain’t stopping until they have every square centimeter of their country back, and all their people who were kidnapped. The Russians may well find themselves having to negotiate getting Belgorod back from them…
Russian Army has always been a bit of a joke; like that fat sloppy guy down at the end of the bar, dangerous only when you’re not ready for them to sucker-punch you the way they did the Poles and Finns in WWII. It takes serious destruction of their forces before they start to get serious about learning and applying those lessons to war–Witness WWII, as an example. Something like Ukraine, where they went in all half-hard? Only served to unite Ukrainians in their hatred for them, and make it nearly impossible for them to win. Even if they had taken Ukraine on the fly back in February, the resultant insurgency and resistance movements would have destroyed the relatively tiny force they deployed. Let’s remember, here: Ukraine’s population is around 45 million, and the Russians sent in less than two hundred thousand ill-equipped, poorly-trained, and ineptly led soldiers to defeat, capture, hold, and pacify that population… Which was already primed to hate them with the burning heat of a thousand suns.
Not what I would describe as the “path of wisdom”, and what we’re seeing in front of us is the inevitable ugly denouement. By 2025, the Russian Federation may well consist only of Moscow and its suburbs, essentially unsupportable as even a minor regional city-state. I strongly suspect that much of Siberia will be under Chinese control by then, along with a lot of other regions going “Oh, f*ck…” and begging to become something other than satrapys of the Muscovites. Finland may finally get Karelia back; Tuva will be Mongol or Chinese, and who knows what else gets peeled away?
I’ve always said that Putin was the worst thing that happened to post-Soviet Russia, and here he is, proving me right. Idiot.
I hope Kirk is right. Maybe tactical nukes are Putin’s next move. A lot of serious people in Russia are suggesting that right now.
Russia a conventional threat? Imagine five or more A-10 warthogs unleased upon the highways crowded with Russian equipment – Kuwaiti highway of death – part 2. Perhaps – to coin a very old, incorrect phrase, “Confederate Airforce” A-10’s?????
The Vietnam Blues are coming to Russia.
Tonight I’m with myself again
I’m talking with my mind
These last three months we’ve talked a lot
And found we’re in a bind
Not that we’re different
We don’t think we’re unique
But the answers we’re questioning
Are those we’ve heard you speak
We haven’t decided you’re wrong
For experience has a function
But my mind is at the crossroad
And I think I’m at a junction
You sent us here to join you
And to fight your distant war
We did, but even those who make it home
Carry back a scar
The answer that we question most
is one we’ve heard you say,
“You owe it to your country, boy,
It’s the American Way”
We haven’t decided you’re really wrong
For experience has its function
But my mind is at the crossroads
And I can’t find the junction
We haven’t decided you’re wrong
For experience has its function
But you’ve thrown us out here on the backroads
And we’re gonna find the junction
Too much Ukrainian success could very well lead to nuclear response if the kleptocrat in chief thinks it will keep him in power.
re: Californio – The Confederate Air Force was never a military unit. It was a flying museum. Flying Tigers A-10s. Now that’s a different matter.
Ed Tao – thank you!
—————————————-
Russia looks to be showing the world how powerless it is. Likely not even much of a regional power, but with nukes. Rather like Pakistan.
The psychological and strategic ramifications for, well, everybody can’t be underestimated. The planet changed this year.
Russia is still capable of edging into a win … but it’ll be a Pyrrhic victory.
[…] seems to be so fluid that nobody can keep up anymore. Masgramondou tries;so does Vodkapundit and Battleswarm […]
Russian defeat was clear by the end of March. It just took this long for the underlying causes to play out.
I still say no nuclear weapons will be used. Putin has no problems he can solve that way, and it would create a hell of a lot of new ones for him. I don’t think he’s quite as stupid as current circumstances make him look – certainly, fairly stupid; but a big chunk of it was getting comfortable with the corruptocrat graft regime and starting to believe his own bullshit.
By his actions, he really doesn’t want to do full mobilization. Probably doesn’t trust that the Russian population is sufficiently brainwashed to actually go along with it; and less so now, with six months of mounting bad news from the front. Therefore his only realistic plan is to write off the troops in Ukraine, blame the defeat on traitors, use that as an excuse for a security crackdown, and hope to ride out the situation.
Meanwhile, any factions in Moscow that have any hope of getting back to the good life (graft off imperial tribute, sell raw materials to the west while raking off tons more graft, buy megayachts and penthouses in London, to hell with ordinary Russians) need a way to convince guys with guns to help to knock him out of position. That’s easier with a big military disaster to point to. Kharkiv might not be enough by itself. Kharkiv plus one or two others might be.
Guys, Putin is a bad guy. He’s an authoritarian dictator.
Now, what are authoritarian dictators good at? Holding and maintaining power. Power politics. He’s brilliant at it.
Putin probably did think that the invasion would go better and that the Ukrainians would be pushovers, but that doesn’t matter. Russia provides 40% of the energy for Europe. Energy prices have gone up hundreds of percent in weeks because Putin turned off Nordstream.
Checkmate.
If every one of Russia’s soldiers retreat Russia still has the upper hand. i.e. is it worth destroying Europe’s economy and having many of it’s poorest starve, and have riots in the streets? Nope, so they will throw Ukraine overboard and push for a settlement.
[…] Russian Rout is Ongoing in Luhansk/Donetsk […]
[…] Scenes From A Russian Rout — BattleSwarmBlog […]
Imperial collapse is always an ugly thing to watch, especially from within. The Russians are finally experiencing the denouement of the Russian/Soviet Empire, and it won’t be pleasant for them.
I’ll lay anyone long odds that “Russia” ceases to exist sometime in this decade, and Moscow winds up as a decaying remnant city state, once the provinces realize that it’s been ass-raping them for generations and hasn’t offered a damn thing in return besides more and more thorough ass-raping.
There’s nothing value-added about the what Muscovy has been doing to the rest of Russia since it first began its rise out of insignificance. When it finally recedes into much-deserved obscurity, it will be a wide spot on all the roads and rivers going somewhere else. A place that most people will pass by, and knowingly remark “Moscow was once here…”.
Raw fact is, the rest of what we Russia doesn’t need Moscow. And, once Putin finishes convincing everyone else in what we call Russia today, well… Moscow is done for.
It’ll be the same with China. Centralization does not serve anyone well, and we’re likely going to see the same crap here in the US, once people decide they’ve had quite enough of the wannabe imperialists in DC. Texas will likely peel off, first, and then it’ll be “Katie, bar the door…”
Hate to say it, but decentralized power is the way to go. The EU project just demonstrates that more and more, every single day. Federalization is one thing, but giving a central government all that damn power is a huge, huge mistake–One we shouldn’t have made. We will pay the price, and the aftermath will be ugly.