This morning I’m seeing a lot of reports that that long-rumored Kherson counteroffensive is finally beginning.
The Odesa-based newspaper Dumskaya reports that the Units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine concentrated in the southern direction have launched a counteroffensive at night on the right bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson Oblast.
Dumskaya says that soldiers deployed on the front lines informed the newspaper that they have already managed to liberate several settlements and advance in the direction of Kherson.
This information, however, hasn’t yet been confirmed by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Update:
The Command of the Ukrainian operational group of troops Kakhovka reported that a Ukrainian counterattack knocked out the 109th regiment of the “people’s militia” of the so-called “DNR” from its defensive positions. The Russian paratroopers, who were sent to help them, reportedly fled from the battlefield under the pressure of Ukrainian troops.
The Kakhovka group command also noted that the Russian forces in Kherson Oblast have been cut off from the supply of weapons and troops from the territory of occupied Crimea.
Update:
According to information available to Dumskaya, Ukrainian troops are advancing in at least two directions towards Kherson.
Nataliia Humeniuk, Head of the United Coordination Press Center of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, says that “the offensive actions are being carried out in many directions in the south of Ukraine.”
“The counteroffensive has been going on for a long time — it is exhausting the enemy and not giving him the opportunity to advance. And today we started offensive actions in different directions, including in Kherson Oblast,” Nataliia Humeniuk said.
Sources of Ukrainska Pravda in the Ukrainians Armed Forces stationed in the south note that in some areas there was a breakthrough of the Russian first line of defense, but “it’s too early to say anything concrete, the front is big.”
Update 13:48
Oleh Bratchuk, the Odesa Oblast Military Administration’s spokesman, says that so far today the Ukrainian troops hit the following facilities in occupied Kherson Oblast in the Russian rear:
Machine-building factory in Beryslav that was used as a Russian base Russian army post near the North Crimean Canal River crossing in Lvove, Beryslav district Ammunition depot in Havrylivka, Beryslav district
That’s from Euromaidan Press, a pro-Ukrainian outlet, so treat it with a few grains of salt. From The Kiev Post, another pro-Ukraine outlet:
Having repeatedly announced plans for a counterattack on Kherson, it seems that today the Ukrainian army has begun implementing orders to liberate the South of Ukraine from Russian occupiers.
According to an operational group of Ukrainian troops, “Kakhovka,” on August 29, the Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through the occupying force’s first line of defense near Kherson, and the 109th DPR regiment withdrew from its positions. Russian paratroopers, who were the DPR regiment’s support, also fled the battlefield.
“Ukraine has a brilliant chance to regain the territories, with the help of HIMARS. Almost all the large bridges in Kherson have already been destroyed – the Russian army have been cut off from the supply of weapons and personnel from Crimea,” the message stated.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched offensive actions in many directions in the south of Ukraine, the head of the joint press center of the Security and Defense Forces “South”, Nataliya Humenyuk, announced on Ukrainian T.V. news.
Explosions can be heard throughout Kherson region. Massive attacks on Russian bases in Beryslav and Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Region, have been recorded. There are also reports of strikes on Russian infantry.
Here’s a quick video from Suchomimus, a YouTuber who generally concentrates on analyzing weapon footage from the war:
He notes the reports of HIMARS hitting Russian infantry positions, something we haven’t seen before and which suggest a counteroffensive is indeed underway. Plus a video of a single Russian soldier freaking out and reporting that Ukraine troops are attacking in force.
Some relevant tweets:
So – the Ukrainian military has launched multiple attacks on Russian positions in the Kherson region.
We’ll see how huge the situation is.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2022
Something very serious is definitely happening in the Kherson direction. I do not remember such an intense flow of information about explosions and attacks on Russian positions during the entire war. There are also serious reports about a counteroffensive operations .
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 29, 2022
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have breached the occupiers' first line of defence near Kherson. They believe that Ukraine has a real chance to get back its occupied territories, especially considering the very successful use of Western weapons by the Ukrainian army.
— Stratcom Centre UA (@StratcomCentre) August 29, 2022
Claimed video somewhere from Kherson direction from captured Russian positions. With added English subtitles. pic.twitter.com/krciOQWiQ1
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 29, 2022
Russian news is going nuts. Seems Ukraine has breached Russian lines in Kherson region with the use of tanks…
Conflicting as to if it is 🇺🇦 taking advantage of a tactical weakness in 🇷🇺 lines or a strategic, full-out counter offensive.
News developing. (Pic: Novaya Kahovka). pic.twitter.com/vkAyAqtdFi
— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) August 29, 2022
Russian state affiliated media reporting a mass evacuation was ordered in Russian controlled Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. pic.twitter.com/ayoslSM5Tz
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 29, 2022
Developing…
Edited to Add:
Ukrainian breakthroughs in Kherson are now confirmed.
3 directions— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) August 29, 2022
This footage of Ukrainian planes pounding Russian positions is all over Twitter:
Ukrainian aviation covers the positions of the occupiers in the Kherson direction, video from a soldier from the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade. pic.twitter.com/DpiqeXcSXx
— Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 (@Heroiam_Slava) August 29, 2022
Remember, Russia pulled aircraft out of Crimea following attacks on airbases there.
Edited to Add 2: One of the Ukraine war map guys has a video of the reported tactical situation up:
Tags: Foreign Policy, Kherson, Military, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukraine, video
“Almost all the large bridges in Kherson have already been destroyed ….”
The Kiev Post left out that this fact makes it hard for the Ukrainians to cross the river and retake that lost territory.
@Jack
That’s not the part the Uke’s are going after right now. The largest Russian contingents is actually on the West side of the river. Targeting the bridges cuts off routes for reinforcement, resupply or retreat. Break that force and the rump force on the West side may not be able to contest a crossing
“The Kiev Post left out that this fact makes it hard for the Ukrainians to cross the river and retake that lost territory.”
Nonsense. Look at a map. The Zaporyzhe region is wide open, and the bridges in that section of the front are fully functional and well behind Ukrainian lines.
They drew excess Russian troops across the river near Kherson, blocked them from resupply and easy retreat by taking out the bridges, and can now take out that force. The Russians are the ones short on manpower in this war. Biting off a good chunk of their forces this way – whether taking them prisoner, killing a fair amount, or just pushing them into disorganized retreat after which reforming them into combat-effective units will be very difficult – makes it that much harder for Russia to maintain a line anywhere else, and especially in Zaporyzhe, which makes further Ukrainian operations more possible.
If this was a video game one might argue that making the attack through Zaporyzhe first and sweeping around southwest to take Kherson from behind in a grand glorious encirclement would have been better. I think the Ukrainians have a reasonably accurate assessment of what they can realistically achieve given the conditions they’re working under.
From Rollory:
“If this was a video game one might argue that making the attack through Zaporyzhe first and sweeping around southwest to take Kherson from behind in a grand glorious encirclement would have been better. I think the Ukrainians have a reasonably accurate assessment of what they can realistically achieve given the conditions they’re working under.”
The history of big grand encirclements is by widely dispersed forces… not good. Sure, when it works, you can get something like a Cannae, or a Kursk or a 73 Easting. In most cases it just turns into a muddled mess because the coordination required simply wasn’t achievable and none of the individual maneuver elements had enough combat power for a knockout. Worst case is that it opens the attacker to defeat in detail as the defender makes use of the interior lines.
THe Ukes have gotten where they are but not being overly ambitious in their operations. Fight only when and where they have to and then make sure to preserve as much of their force as possible while the Russians waste theirs. I don’t see any need for them to take big risks yet.
73 Easting wasn’t an encirclement.
Rollory,
Your last paragraph is exactly right. If UKR takes Melitopol AND knock out the eastern road/rail bridges from Crimea, RU must retreat from all points east. I started a (unpublished) thread below:
UKR Plan
A WWI-style trench warfare artillery is not a battle UKR can win. RU simply has more – of everything. UKR needs a game-changer to radically alter the current course of the war. Something audacious. Something that could unhinge all RU forces in the south and demand an immediate re-assessment of war plans.
How? Attack Melitopol from Zaphorizah, just 80km away with a road and railroad. Melitopol is the linch pin for RU logistics in the south. Taking Melitopol means no “land bridge” to Crimea. HUGE bad news for Putin. All other RU efforts get a full stop and reassessment. HQs in shock.
Use recent heavy weapons (120 T-72M1, 120 BMP, 72 2S1, 50% of the gear from Poland), to update 4 veteran Armored Brigades. 14,000 stalwart men. Add 3 battalions of 155mm artillery (~25%), S-300, UAVs, 3,000 ATGMs, 6 Mi-17, logistics battalions, etc.
Using the Mi-17s, drop reece/ATGM teams on the route of advance to join with the existing partisans to report RU activity/locations and perform ambushes. Spotters/UAVs will be key to ID targets for precision artillery strikes.
The initial barrage with 125+ howitzers for 60 minutes, amounting to over 5,000 shells. Prior recce will provide the GPS locations of RU forces & locations for 155mm precision & 122mm artillery. This should destroy the first two echelons on the front line.
Deploy 2 armored & armored infantry battalions on a narrow front on the road & railroad (~5Km) to breakthrough. The assault units move rapidly in the open rear area to the south. Follow-on units (3 armored brigades) can open the breach wider and turn east and west to protect the flank, especially to the east.
Use Harpoons to destroy rail & road bridges SW of Melitopol connecting to eastern Crimea at D+8 hours.
Create a “flying column” to continue on to Melitopol. Send scouts to ascertain what is ahead & on each side. Continue moving artillery forward, giving UKR an advantage in artillery for once. Activate the partisans with SOF and weapons. Add combat brigades ASAP.
With Melitopol taken and the eastern Crimea access out, all RU forces to the west of Melitopol must retreat to Crimea to prevent being isolated. That leaves the bridges in the west of Crimea as the only way for RU forces to retreat to Crimea. An additional reason to retreat from Kherson NOW. Creates additional havoc at RU HQ. Strategic disaster for RU. Popcorn.
____
More propaganda hogwash. Wait and see.
oh good, this little imbroglio should wind down [checks notes] some time in the late 2040s
well, as long as it’s for the global liberal order
@Lawrence Person
I stand corrected on that but I think the rest of the point still stands
[…] Kherson Counteroffensive Finally Begins […]
[…] teeters on the verge of collapse, Biden cuts funding to Radio Martí and VOA BattleSwarm: Kherson Counteroffensive Finally Begins, also, Kherson Counteroffensive: Day Two Behind The Black: Astra gets contract to provide engines […]
[…] of the Kherson situation so far, including damage to the bridges, covered here and […]