Following the Russian capture of Severodonetsk, the Russo-Ukranian War seems to have gone into an operational pause. Ukraine has now received and fielded its first HIMARS multiple rocket launch systems from the U.S. This video makes the case that that’s very bad news for Russian logistics.
Some takeaways:
HIMARS can hit targets at 80kms with high accuracy, far superior to Russia’s Uragan system (40km and less accurate) and Smersh systems.
The high accuracy makes 6 HIMARS missiles equal to 70 rounds of Russian artillery.
Systems move at 90kph.
Five minute reload time.
Crew of three.
“Just a few highmars can cut off a 100 kilometer long front line from supply and control.”
“Ukraine has already been able to destroy more than 20 large ammunition depots and several command posts.”
All well and good, but I have some caveats with the contention that HIMARS can drive the enemy before it and hear the lamentations of their women.
So far, Ukraine has fielded precisely four HIMARS. Four may be able to change the course of a battle, but certainly not a war.
There’s no reason to believe that Russia can’t adapt by dispersing ordinance to smaller and less dense ammo depots, or by restarting air sorties (which they seem to have largely abandoned) to hit HIMARS. Knowing the Russian military, the rate of adaptation will be very slow, but it’s not beyond their abilities.
While HIMARS help? Yes. Will they completely destroy Russian command and logistics? Color me very skeptical.
Thus far I have seen no signs of any real Ukrainian counter-offensive in the last month. Until that changes, we still look to be in for a long, bloody stalemate.
This entry was posted on Sunday, July 17th, 2022 at 8:26 PM and is filed under Military, video. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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Regarding sophisticated military equipment like this, the effectiveness will only be as good as their tactical intelligence, personnel, and their logistics/maintenance. This is an awesome weapon system but it needs to know where the targets are located, hence the need for tactical intelligence. Then they need trained personnel who have the ability to operate the equipment and work through the mysterious gremlins and routine friction that will occur on a daily basis in a field environment. And if they can get that far, then they will need the fuel, spare parts, and repair capabilities for the inevitable breakdowns. The fuel pump or a W19 or W420 cable will break. The guys on the ground will have to identify the problem, secure the part, and have someone who can replace the part. These are the significant differences that separate a professional first world army from a semi-competent third world army.
Penny packets of weapons systems will not win a war. Took, on average, five Shermans to kill a Tiger I or Tiger II. Hard truth is that the Tigers still died while more Shermans were on the way.
Ah, but you miss the point… The HIMARS and other systems are taking out Russian logistics, which are mired in a 1930s mentality.
I think Russia is the one who is going to be attritted, here. The Ukrainians are actually doing the most destructive thing you could do to the Russians, which is mire them into an unwinnable morass, similar to what was done to them in Afghanistan. Afghanistan destroyed the Soviet Union, and it was entirely self-inflicted. Same thing is happening here, only to what was left of the Soviet Klepto-state.
If this war continues much past this fall, Putin and Russia are ‘effing screwed. My guess is that the collapse is going to come when the inherent contradictions in the Russian system become impossible to deny, and the various regions spin off out of Moscow’s control.
If I had to predict, I think Russia is going to consist of the Moscow Metro area and some rural areas around it. Everything else is going to wind up going their own way. Putin cannot keep pouring ethnic minorities into the fight; he’s already pissed away a significant amount of his “regime support troops” trying to win in Ukraine, and when the regional governors figure out they’ve got little to fear by listening to their people? Along with the fact that there won’t be any VDV showing up to contest whatever arrangements they make with their neighbors…?
I suspect that the former Chinese provinces in the Far East will go first, and then everything else, all at once. It’s been stunning to watch Putin pour resources into the tar baby that is Ukraine, and for what gain? I rather suspect he’s going to lose it all, and likely before the end of the year.
Thing to remember about the Ukrainians: Their minds are marvelously focused, and they’re the people who did much of the industrial work for the Soviet Union. I think they’ll have a lot less trouble keeping things going than you might imagine, and may well wind up in the same situation that Israel did, having developed a modern military industry under fire. Their artillery fire control system is an amazing thing, along with the UAV troops who self-organized. They’re learning, and learning a lot faster than even our Army is actually capable of…
So far, Ukraine has fielded precisely four HIMARS. Four may be able to change the course of a battle, but certainly not a war.
How many different battles is Russia waging right now in Ukraine?
If Russia were pushing 20 different attacks, then being able to stop only 1 of them at a time is not a winning proposition.
OTOH, if they can use HIMARS to stop any current Russian push, and when not needed for that use it to back up a Ukrainian counter-push, that seems like a winning proposition to me.
If Ukraine can push in Donetsk far enough anywhere that HIMARS can reach any rail lines feeding everything south and west of there, how long can the Russian troops there hold out?
It is a very ugly contest. The question may come down to who is willing to spend more blood. Some of the Russian “ruling class” have announced that they may have to murder 2-3 million Ukrainians to properly deNazify the area. That means that the Ukrainians don’t have a lot to loose by fighting for a win. Dead is dead.
Russia is no longer the Soviet Union. They seem to be having trouble with logistics, control, and manpower. Putin may have allowed the rot to progress too far. The loss of ships in the Black Sea fleet should never have happened in a modern and well maintained force.
Russians still have to worry about China, that still has old claims on Siberia. Russia still has to worry about an “expensive” war in the West, perhaps against NATO, that leaves them vulnerable in the East. China might act to “protect Russian interests” in Siberia, if they think that Moscow is too weak to take care of business. China is a dangerous “friend”.
[…] military assets blowing up in Ukraine isn’t news, especially now that they’ve fielded HIMARS. What is news is these strikes are a good 200 kilometers from the front […]
Regarding sophisticated military equipment like this, the effectiveness will only be as good as their tactical intelligence, personnel, and their logistics/maintenance. This is an awesome weapon system but it needs to know where the targets are located, hence the need for tactical intelligence. Then they need trained personnel who have the ability to operate the equipment and work through the mysterious gremlins and routine friction that will occur on a daily basis in a field environment. And if they can get that far, then they will need the fuel, spare parts, and repair capabilities for the inevitable breakdowns. The fuel pump or a W19 or W420 cable will break. The guys on the ground will have to identify the problem, secure the part, and have someone who can replace the part. These are the significant differences that separate a professional first world army from a semi-competent third world army.
“Quantity has a quality of its own.” — J. Stalin
Penny packets of weapons systems will not win a war. Took, on average, five Shermans to kill a Tiger I or Tiger II. Hard truth is that the Tigers still died while more Shermans were on the way.
Logistics votes hard and often.
Ah, but you miss the point… The HIMARS and other systems are taking out Russian logistics, which are mired in a 1930s mentality.
I think Russia is the one who is going to be attritted, here. The Ukrainians are actually doing the most destructive thing you could do to the Russians, which is mire them into an unwinnable morass, similar to what was done to them in Afghanistan. Afghanistan destroyed the Soviet Union, and it was entirely self-inflicted. Same thing is happening here, only to what was left of the Soviet Klepto-state.
If this war continues much past this fall, Putin and Russia are ‘effing screwed. My guess is that the collapse is going to come when the inherent contradictions in the Russian system become impossible to deny, and the various regions spin off out of Moscow’s control.
If I had to predict, I think Russia is going to consist of the Moscow Metro area and some rural areas around it. Everything else is going to wind up going their own way. Putin cannot keep pouring ethnic minorities into the fight; he’s already pissed away a significant amount of his “regime support troops” trying to win in Ukraine, and when the regional governors figure out they’ve got little to fear by listening to their people? Along with the fact that there won’t be any VDV showing up to contest whatever arrangements they make with their neighbors…?
I suspect that the former Chinese provinces in the Far East will go first, and then everything else, all at once. It’s been stunning to watch Putin pour resources into the tar baby that is Ukraine, and for what gain? I rather suspect he’s going to lose it all, and likely before the end of the year.
Thing to remember about the Ukrainians: Their minds are marvelously focused, and they’re the people who did much of the industrial work for the Soviet Union. I think they’ll have a lot less trouble keeping things going than you might imagine, and may well wind up in the same situation that Israel did, having developed a modern military industry under fire. Their artillery fire control system is an amazing thing, along with the UAV troops who self-organized. They’re learning, and learning a lot faster than even our Army is actually capable of…
[…] But: […]
So far, Ukraine has fielded precisely four HIMARS. Four may be able to change the course of a battle, but certainly not a war.
How many different battles is Russia waging right now in Ukraine?
If Russia were pushing 20 different attacks, then being able to stop only 1 of them at a time is not a winning proposition.
OTOH, if they can use HIMARS to stop any current Russian push, and when not needed for that use it to back up a Ukrainian counter-push, that seems like a winning proposition to me.
If Ukraine can push in Donetsk far enough anywhere that HIMARS can reach any rail lines feeding everything south and west of there, how long can the Russian troops there hold out?
It is a very ugly contest. The question may come down to who is willing to spend more blood. Some of the Russian “ruling class” have announced that they may have to murder 2-3 million Ukrainians to properly deNazify the area. That means that the Ukrainians don’t have a lot to loose by fighting for a win. Dead is dead.
Russia is no longer the Soviet Union. They seem to be having trouble with logistics, control, and manpower. Putin may have allowed the rot to progress too far. The loss of ships in the Black Sea fleet should never have happened in a modern and well maintained force.
Russians still have to worry about China, that still has old claims on Siberia. Russia still has to worry about an “expensive” war in the West, perhaps against NATO, that leaves them vulnerable in the East. China might act to “protect Russian interests” in Siberia, if they think that Moscow is too weak to take care of business. China is a dangerous “friend”.
Interesting game.
[…] military assets blowing up in Ukraine isn’t news, especially now that they’ve fielded HIMARS. What is news is these strikes are a good 200 kilometers from the front […]