By now everyone and their dog has already chimed in on the illegally leaked draft of a Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which Justice Roberts has confirmed the authenticity of. I’m not going to go over the unprecedented nature of the leak, or how the leaker (probably a clerk for one of the four liberal Supreme Court justices) deserves to spend a good long time in prison.
No, let’s jump straight to the political ramifications of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade. I think the actual ramifications can be summed up as: So what?
There are three main beneficiaries to Roe being overturned:
That’s pretty much it. With the economy in the toilet, do Democrats really believe this decision will be the number one issue at the polls? Democrats have boasted about retiring pro-life Republicans for decades, with no obvious results. Judging from Wendy “Abortion Barbie” Davis’ disastrous Texas gubernatorial run, when Greg Abbott beat her like a rented mule, “pro-abortion Republican women” may have made up 1% of the electorate. And that was eight years ago. Post-Trump, I’d guess that almost everyone who would leave the Republican Party over the issue has left already over any of a dozen other culture war issues or Trump Derangement Syndrome.
I’m also guessing that the hard left’s desire to groom children is going to be a far more pressing issue for parents than late-stage abortion (which won’t be outlawed in blue states anyway).
Conversely, culturally conservative Hispanics and blacks have already been drifting to the Republican Party. Abortion has never been as popular among them as white suburbanites, so it seems unlikely that the decision will play a significant part in driving them to the polls in November.
As far as motivating the Democratic Party base, they were already all-in on Trump hatred in 2020. Once you’ve dubbed your political opponents “insurrectionists” and “white supremacists,” how much more rhetorical headroom do you have? Are Republicans now going to be Extra Satan Hitler Slathered in Racist Hitler Sauce?
Go ahead, quintuple your Handmaid’s Tale cosplay. We’ll just keep registering voters instead.
Indeed, the decision might energize Republican voters complaining that the Republican Party is worthless. Without Republican presidents appointing originalist judges, we don’t get Heller and we don’t get Roe overturned.
Elections matter. Vote accordingly.
Tags: abortion, Democrats, Roe vs. Wade, Supreme Court
Echoing the “so what” aspect, Redditors have long since compiled a massive trove of resources to connect people seeking abortion with people ready to provide.
I’m pasting the list here, not because I support, but just to demonstrate the scope and scale of the options out there. Interestingly, several of these are focused on ladies in Texas.
https://old.reddit.com/r/Feminism/comments/phrcrn/this_is_a_comprehensive_list_of_resources_for/
• r/auntienetwork
• Aidaccess
• Planned Parenthood Unplanned Pregnancy – A Comprehensive Guide
• Plan C
• Ceinfo, Emergency Oral Contraceptive Doses for Birth Control
• Abortionfunds
• Yellowhammerfund
• Teafund (Texas Equal Access Fund)
• Gynopedia
• Womenonweb
• The Satanic Temple
• Carafem
• Frontera Fund
• Buckle Bunnies Fund
• The Afiya Centers
• Lilithfund
• Needabortion
• Jane’s Due Process
• Fund Texas choice
Two predictions:
in 2022 an app called “Uber Choice” will appear
I predict Uber will provide a free ride from a pro-life state to an abortion provider in a pro-choice state, to a woman, few questions asked. They’ll heavily advertise this exciting new option, and the left and big tech will celebrate. Loudly.
Maybe it won’t be Uber. Maybe it won’t even be a known ride-sharing app. But such apps will appear. They’re probably already developed and debugged, ready to go live on the app store once the decision happens.
Liberals who moved to Texas may leave
You know the billboards, “Don’t California My Texas”? The flood of Californians who’ve moved to Austin, etc, changing the local politics with their voting preferences? Yeah, they’ll move again.
They won’t stay in this icky pro-life state once Abbot signs the ban.
Texans will watch this and say, “your terms are acceptable.”
… as an aside, it’s also likely some of the tech companies who’ve moved to Texas, to much fanfare, will move elsewhere … again with much fanfare. Tesla, SpaceX? Hard to say.
Bonus time!
The left and feminists long said men weren’t allowed in the abortion discussion, it’s a women’s issue. Well guess what? It’s 2022 and as they won’t stop telling us, “men can get pregnant now, too!”
That means it’s a men’s issue now, and men have an undeniable place at the table discussing the topic.
Ain’t it fun how that works?! Ya like apples?! How you like THEM apples!!!!
The massive irony with all this is gonna hit come the day the laptoperati realize that their lovely socialist paradise depends on enslaving the next generation. When they finally recognize the necessity for “new faces” for the whole thing to work out, you’re going to see the shoe seamlessly go onto the other foot, and it’ll be the leftoids shrieking about “social duty” for people to reproduce more workers to keep the fraud going. About that time, abortion will become illegal, child-rearing made mandatory, and a host of draconian measures enacted to enforce that “every woman do her duty to society”. What that will look like, I have no idea, but it will come. And, the Evul Righties(TM) will be excoriated for standing up for human liberty. Although, I suspect they’ll go right along with the demands for criminalization of abortion…
The whole thing would be darkly humorous if it weren’t going to ruin a lot of lives, like every leftist project. If the assholes had left things alone, we’d still be ticking along on a steady-state social paradigm, but noooooo… They’re so smart; they know so much better.
Watch it happen. I expect laws in place by the end of the century mandating childbirth. At the very least, they’re going to tax the ever-loving snot out of singles who don’t reproduce, in order to pay for their unasked-for “social benefits”.
Meanwhile, the Rest of Us(TM) just want to be left the hell alone.
Big loser here? Zelinsky. Wondering why nobody in DC is answering his calls suddenly.
“So what?” Well there’s one more thing you missed: Republican politicians will no longer be able to “fundraise” off the abortion issue and then do diddly jack squat to change the situation once they’re elected. It took President Donald Trump to give us actually conservative “conservative” jurists. I for one am grateful and appreciate his good policy decisions, follow-through and working to fulfil promises, all done without the Dems, the RINOS, and the Deep-staters who think they own the country. Bravo!
One more beneficiary: the Federalist Society, whose street cred on picking jurists who won’t go squish just gained about ten thousand perc….um, 30 dB. And a big loser is the ABA, whose endorsement value lost about 30 dB.
Looking at a longer time horizon, we may see some shift in cultural attitudes, since the availability of abortion tended to neuter traditional criticisms of unwed pregnancy…at least she chose life and all that. And longer-term than that, the waning of the Freakonomics “Roe Effect”, if you take that seriously–I am skeptical myself–may help the left demographically.
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@Kirk: why mandate natality when they can just import a new servant class?
@jabrwok,
When the demographic crunch really starts to hit home, those economic refugees aren’t going to be coming in, any more. It’ll be either pay them what they’re worth, which will have to be more than what they could make at home, where they’re also going to be in high demand, or… They won’t come.
Eventually, the First World countries that have been relying on the Third to do the nasty work of raising the next generation are going to have a Come to Jesus moment when they find out that those people aren’t like themselves, and that they’re not going to serve as the next generation on the welfare treadmill. The whole thing is unstable, as we are about to learn.
Liberal Democratic fundraisers don’t actually appear to be doing that well off of this.
In the 24 hours after RBG died, ActBlue raised $30 million
In the 24 hours after the draft came out, the raised $9 million
It doesn’t create a “Right to Life”, it just kicks everything back to the States.
Since 65% of Americans think 2nd trimester abortions should be illegal in most cases, and 80% think that way for 3rd trimester, IMO this is going to hurt the Dems
Because their base seems to demand that their candidate go full bore on this, which is not what the voters want
https://gregquark.blogspot.com/2022/05/ap-on-americans-and-abortion.html