Remember when earlier polls show Robert “Beto” O’Rourke within the margin of error against Ted Cruz?
Well, a new Quinnipiac poll of likely (rather than merely registered voters) says “Not so much.” The poll shows Cruz with a 9 point lead over his Democratic rival.
As always, let’s look at the crosstabs. The sample was 35% Republicans, 26% Democrats and 33% Independents. That compares to 38% Republicans, 29% Democrats at 33% Independents in 2016 exit polling. Given that we see roughly the same 3% reduction for both parties, this probably the closest sample replicating actual election conditions, the caveat, of course, being that off-year election numbers tend to be more Republican still.
Any concerns? Yes, the number of voters queried (807) is still small.
A nine point loss strikes me as closer to a ceiling of O’Rourke’s chances than a floor. A 12-15 point loss seems far more likely. (On the bright side, that will still be significant improvement on Wendy Davis’ 20 point wipeout in 2014.) Baring some sort of black swan event, like another economic meltdown or Ted Cruz ripping off his face to reveal he’s actually a Zerg Hydralisk, I don’t expect the fundamentals of the race to change appreciably.
Edited to add: I just noticed that today is Talk Like a Pirate Day, so let’s add another meme:
Tags: 2018 Election, 2018 Texas Senate Race, Beto O'Rourke, Democrats, Elections, polls, Quinnipiac Poll, Republicans, Ted Cruz, Texas
I just read a story about a Reuters/Ipsos poll that shows Cruz and O’Rourke tied. The story links to a graphic of the results, not to crosstabs. Poll doesn’t yet show up on Real Clear Politics or Reuters’ own Polling site. Hmmm.
Another reason for suspicion? The graphic of the poll results shows Velez within 10 points of Abbott in the governor’s race–when all other polls have shown Abbott ahead by 19 or 20 points.
That Reuters poll must be a doozy!
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