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November 17th, 2022Ukraine Update for November 15, 2022: Dnipro Crossed?
November 15th, 2022Right after Kherson city was liberated and spans on the Antonivsky and Nova Kakhkovka bridges blown, a whole lot of commenters went “Well, Ukraine obviously isn’t going to try to cross the Dnipro there, it’s too wide.”
Looks like that assumption might have been in error, as there are already reports that Ukraine has landed on the other side.
The Kinburn Spit is a narrow finger of sand and scrub, barely three miles long, that juts from the wider Kinburn Peninsula into the Black Sea at the mouth of the Dnipro River south of Kherson. It and the adjacent peninsula also are the last parts of Ukraine’s Mykolaiv Oblast that remain under Russian occupation.
Don’t expect that to last. The Kremlin on Wednesday ordered its battered forces on the right bank of the Dnipro to retreat to the river’s opposite bank.
The order came six months after Ukrainian brigades, re-armed with European howitzers and American rocket-launchers, began bombarding Russian supply lines in the south—and two months after those same brigades launched a counteroffensive aimed at liberating Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.
The Ukrainians have the Kinburn Spit in their sights. They’ve got the troops, the equipment … and a plan.
Russian troops seized the Kinburn Spit in mid-June as Russian advances in the south—having already overwhelmed Kherson city—ran into stiff resistance a few miles south of Mykolaiv city. Capturing the spit would turn out to be one of the Russian army’s last victories in the south. The four-month Ukrainian counterlogistics campaign that preceded Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive already was underway.
Kinburn matters. Russian control of the sandy strip “will allow them to exert further control of the Black Sea coast,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. explained in June. For the Ukrainians, Kinburn is a back door—a way to get forces onto the left bank of the Dnipro without crossing the river, likely while under fire.
As far back as April, U.K. intelligence agents were advising their government to support Ukrainian forces in any future attempt to “conduct beach reconnaissance” on the Kinburn Spit. The recon could “Identify good landing locations for a larger assault force for a future counterattack,” the agents explained in a presentation that later leaked to the press.
It’s possible Ukrainian special operations forces riding in rigid-hull inflatable boats began reconnoitering the spit as early as September. In October, video circulated online reportedly depicting the Ukrainian navy’s last remaining big ship, the 240-foot amphibious vessel Yuri Olefirenko, apparently firing rockets at Russian forces on or near the spit.
The Ukrainian military’s southern command on Saturday announced its intention to liberate Kinburn. Within a day, there were videos online possibly depicting Ukrainian commandos riding toward the spit in their small boats.
Here’s a video of Ukrainian forces doing just that:
Looks more like a commando raid or a reconnaissance in force. And here’s a video analyzing Russia defensive position on the Spit:
There are unconfirmed reports of other river crossing zones. I’d take those with several grains of salt. But it seems possible. Indeed, there are reports confirming that Russia has indeed bugged out from towns in Kherson south of the Dnipro, like this video of apparently abandoned posts in Oleshky, directly south of the Antonovsky Bridge:
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has evidently confirmed Russia’s pullout from the banks of the Dnipro as well:
Russia is preparing defensive positions in Crimea:
Three areas they’ve prepared defensive lines are on the isthmus just south of Perekop, just south of the Chongar Strait, and even on the Arabat Spit, that tiny bit we talked about having a tiny dirt road here. Says Suchomimus: “It’s a bit of preparedness and foresight we haven’t seen from them so far.”
Peter Zeihan thinks that Crimea is so hard to supply that Russia would be better off abandoning it:
I suspect Putin would rather die that give up Crimea voluntarily.
if all that weren’t enough. there’s the tiny little matter that a Russian missile reportedly strayed into Poland, killing two people.
Pooty Poot certainly knows how to make friends and influence people…
Update: Current thinking seems to be that the Polish missile strike was a Ukrainian ground to air missile that went astray trying to intercept a Russian missile.
China’s Lockdowns: Even Crazier
November 14th, 2022Evidently those Chinese Flu Manchu lockdowns are even crazier than we thought:
No matter how crazy China seems to get under Xi Jinping, it shows the amazing ability to always get crazier…
Veterans Day: Celebrating Ralph Puckett
November 13th, 2022This Veterans Day we celebrate the life of Korean War Medal of Honor winner Colonel Ralph Puckett.
Selected as the company’s commander, 1st Lt. Puckett had five-and-a-half weeks to train his Rangers before being committed to combat operations. While attached to Task Force Dolvin and leading the advance of the 25th Infantry Division on Nov. 25, 1950, Puckett and his Rangers attacked and secured Hill 205 in the vicinity of Unsan, Korea. Though outnumbered ten to one, Puckett and his Rangers defeated five successive Chinese counterattacks over four hours that night and into the early morning hours of Nov. 26. Finally, on the sixth assault, with supporting artillery fires unavailable, the Ranger company was overrun in hand-to-hand combat. Having suffered multiple serious wounds, Puckett was unable to move. Despite orders to abandon him, fellow Rangers fought their way to his side and evacuated him to safety. For his actions, Puckett was awarded the Distinguished Service Cross.
Snip.
Still very active in military affairs and his local community, Puckett lives in Columbus, Georgia, with his wife of 68 years. They have two daughters, one of whom is deceased, a son and six grandchildren. His awards include two Distinguished Service Crosses (one to be upgraded to the Medal of Honor); two Silver Stars; two Legions of Merit; two Bronze Stars with V device for valor; five Purple Hearts; ten Air Medals; the Army Commendation Medal; and the World War II Victory Medal, among others. In addition, he earned the Combat Infantryman’s Badge with star, Special Forces Tab, Ranger Tab, Master Parachutist Wings, Glider Badge and Columbian Lancero Ranger Badge.
There’s a video that covers what a badass he was taking that hill, including running back and forth to draw sniper and machine gun fire so his troops could pinpoint and take out the enemy. Also, his wife was a schoolgirl who came to visit him in the hospital while he was recovering from his wounds. Twenty-three weeks later they were married.
In 2021, his Distinguished Service Cross was upgraded to the Medal of Honor. Along with Hiroshi H. Miyamura, he’s one of two remaining living medal of Honor recipients from the Korean War.
Breaking News: Russian Retreat Complete, Kherson City Liberated
November 11th, 2022Yesterday’s post about Russians starting to bug of Kherson Oblast north/west of the Dnipro Rover is already obsolete, as Russia appears to have completed its retreat.
Russia’s military said on Friday it had completed its withdrawal from Kherson, a lightning-fast retreat of tens of thousands of troops across the Dnipro river in the south of Ukraine.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, one of President Vladimir Putin’s closest allies, on Wednesday ordered troops to leave Kherson in a pullout that allows Ukrainian forces to move closer to Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Russia’s defence ministry said all Russian forces and equipment had been transferred to the eastern bank of the Dnipro. It said the withdrawal was completed by 5 a.m. Moscow time (0200 GMT) on Friday.
“The transfer of Russian troop units to the left bank of the Dnipro river has been completed,” the defence ministry said in a statement.
“Not a single unit of military equipment or weapons have been left on the right (western) bank. All Russian servicemen crossed to the left bank,” it added. Russia, it said, had not suffered any loss of personnel or equipment during the withdrawal.
I’m betting that last paragraph is a huge exaggeration, as we already have reports of wounded Russian soldiers being abandoned in the retreat. And there are already videos of captured equipment:
Lots of trophies today. The trophy Russian TOS-A1 "Solntsepek" pulls the trophy tank. The Russian army, as usual, leaves its heavy equipment in working condition. pic.twitter.com/cXBuZ3ehgN
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 6, 2022
Whether it will measure up to Peter Zeihan’s prediction of more equipment captured than in Izyum remains to be seen.
Livemap shows pretty much all of Kherson Oblast liberated, and reports Ukrainian troops entering Kherson City.
Center of Kherson awaiting the arrival of Ukrainian soldiers pic.twitter.com/SsyBRlhKiE
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 11, 2022
🍉🇺🇦 Kherson city liberated!
Glory to Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/BnZmGuCfnT— SportBoxingUA (@sports_ua) November 11, 2022
#Kherson City is liberated! 🇺🇦
11th November 2022🇺🇦
Decisive Ukrainian Victory!🇺🇦
Congratulations and Слава Україні! 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/txgUaudWRY
— Kristina Jakhua (@86kristi) November 11, 2022
#BREAKING: Ukrainian forces hang a flag at the General Directorate of the National Police Building in Kherson City.
Ukrainian forces have liberated Kherson!
📍46.633523,32.620375 pic.twitter.com/1RP1hOygOX
— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) November 11, 2022
And Russia blew a span out of the Antonovsky Bridge.
It appears that the Nova Kakhkovka Bridge has also been blown:
NOVA KAKHOVKA DAM+LOCK 🧵
/16
It looks like several spans of the bridge along the dam were blown up by Russians during the retreat pic.twitter.com/hmaK13SKNG— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 11, 2022
Right now the Kherson retreat looks like considerably less of a debacle than the rout in Kharkiv. We’ll see how many troops were captured and how much equipment captured after the dust settles.
Russia Starts Bugging Out
November 10th, 2022Lets look at the news that Russia has announced a complete withdrawal from Kherson oblast north/west of the Dnipro River.
First up: A big picture overview from Peter Zeihan, that I have some minor to moderate quibbles with.
Takeaways:
Next up: Suchomimus offers a detailed map update. Zeihan is a geopolitical generalist jack of all trades, but detailed video and geolocation analysis is all Suchomimus does.
Takeaways:
Finally, after a month of almost no significant Kherson updates, are we seeing frontline movement indicating a Russian withdrawal? Oh yeah. Here’s Kherson at 4:04 AM Ukrainian time today:
And here it is at 11:37 AM:
That looks pretty dramatic to me…
A Red Trickle
November 9th, 2022When the data ends up giving you results that are different than what you expected, it’s time to step back and try to figure out whether your data is wrong or your theory is wrong.
The theory was that Republicans were going to enjoy a red wave election year, with some analysts going so far as to predict a red tsunami.
That didn’t happen.
Republicans will probably take the House, while control of the senate might not be decided until the Georgia runoff, and Republicans seem to have lost a couple of governorships.
Other widely hailed trends that didn’t happen:
The only place Republicans really seemed to have overperformed is in Florida, where DeSantis whomped turncoat Charlie Crist in the governor’s race (a far cry from the squeaker he won against Andrew “Gay Meth Orgy” Gillum in 2018), and added either four or five U.S. House seats. (They say four, but seem to be counting FL28 (a newly created seat) as a GOP “hold.”)
If there’s a previous election year this reminds me of, it’s 1978. Despite raging inflation and Jimmy Carter’s feckless policies, Republicans picked up only three senate seats and 15 house seats. (Remember, this was a time when Democrats held a much larger advantage in the House than today.) They would do much better in 1980.
But so far, 2022 is a big disappointment for Republicans.
One evergreen takeaway: Never trust polls, no matter whether they’re good or bad for your side.
Tomorrow: A closer look at Texas results.
Liveblogging the 2022 Election
November 8th, 2022Right now Republicans in 2022 are looking like a Kickstarter that hit their initial funding ask, but didn’t hit any of their stretch goals…
Republican John Kennedy avoids a runoff in Louisiana. NY Post/RCP: “Republicans were expected to pick up three Senate seats from Democrats, gaining a 53-47 majority after two years out of power, according to the latest projection by RealClearPolitics. The same outlet predicts the GOP will regain their House majority by winning at least 227 seats.”
“Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria has lost her bid for re-election in Virginia’s 2nd congressional district to Republican State Sen. Jen Kiggans. Luria, a veteran naval officer, was elected to the House of Representatives as part of a Democratic wave in 2018. In the past year, she has risen in prominence as a member of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.”
Yeah, you can see how important voters found the January 6 farce.
Going off to walk my dogs. Republicans had a good night, and will likely take the House and Senate, but not any better than you might expect in a regular midterm, and not nearly as much as you might expect with a president as unpopular as Biden.
Beto concedes. So long, and thanks for the $160 million!
Cahill, U.S. Marshall. Must be George Kennedy Night.
Paxton back up over Garza.
Beto O’Rourke’s livecam is running on a 56K modem.
Abbott giving a victory speech.
J. D. Vance projected winner in Ohio, and flip from the way-to-early returns.
Republicans behind in those south Texas US congressional seats.
Walker leading Warnock in GA. According to Telemundo. Because with mute, it isn’t any less informative.
The ABC network dude looks like he has a haircut from Frank Gehry.
Ha! DeSantis is WALLOPING Charlie Crist, 60%-40%
So far not a good night for Republicans in Arizona.
Eric Scmitt wins in Missouri.
Chris Sununu looks like football pundit Peter King.
Honestly, I’m seeing a red wave, but not the red tsunami some were predicting in the last week.
Williamson County judge too close to call. Possibly headed to a runoff.
Dan Patrick now up much more substantially in TXLT GOV race.
Kemp wins in Georgia. Barring any 3 AM pipe breaks.
Unfortunately, the Social Justice Warrior slate is up in RRISD races.
Six years later, and we’re still laughing at the Jeb! meme.
Pause while I get the doggies some food.
![](https://www.battleswarmblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/computer-dog-150x150.jpg)
OMG! Ron Paul is up 3 points!
Now Patrick is leading Collier.
KVUE is talking as though Beto might win. Nah, he’s toast.
Austin commie twerp Greg Cesar is headed to the U.S. House. On behalf of Texas, we apologize in advance.
Garza up just slightly over Paxton. Still early.
KVUE’s team is sortof crap, but still better than anything else on.
Abbott only wolloping Bobby Francis by 8 points right now.
Collier/Patrick tied for Texas Lt. Gov. right now. Early votes tend to favor Dems, though.
Looking like an Israel-Watson runoff in Austin mayor’s race.
Democratic incumbent Bennet, he of the Presidential flameout, up big in Colorado.
Election coverage, or the car wash scene from Cool Hand Luke? Circle, verily you tempt me!
The people of News 24 are really blathering.
Back. Had to lightly punch someone up request.
Guam goes Republican!
Sununu, DeSantis and Rubio all winning headily.
Scury County recording ZERO votes for Dan Patrick? I call Shenanigans.
VA7 flipping red.
Chip Roy is crushing his opponent right now.
Too early for meaningful Texas results.
Stand by. We’re on the air.
CNN’s exit polls are disasterous for Democrats.
Charlie Crist: Less popular than Jeb!
Back from voting. I’ve never seen higher turnout for a midterm, and possibly never higher turnout even for a Presidential year.
“In a shocking turn of events, data analysts at Fox News have called the gubernatorial race in Arizona for Stacey Abrams.”
538 now gives Dr. Oz the edge over Fetterman. But is it beyond the range of Philadelphia fraud?