Greece Caves

June 22nd, 2015

At least that’s what Zero Hedge has taken away from the various news stories on Greece’s latest proposal to beat the looming end-of-month deadline for making the payment they owe to the IMF.

From the troika’s perspective, breaking Greece and forcing PM Alexis Tsipras to concede to pension cuts and a VAT hike is paramount, and not necessarily because anyone believes these measures will put the perpetually indebted periphery country on a sustainable fiscal path, but because of the message such concessions would send to Syriza sympathizers in Spain and Portugal. In short, the troika cannot set a precedent of allowing debtor nations to obtain austerity concessions by threatening to expose the euro as dissoluble.

But the Eurocrats are claiming there’s still work to do.

The pension changes are evidently types of “austerity” that let Greek PM Alexis Tsipras claim he didn’t actually cut pensions:

Under the proposal submitted to eurozone ministers, the Greek government would raise just under €2.7 billion in extra revenue this year, followed by a further €5.2 billion in 2016.

The blueprint, which will now be assessed by Greece’s creditors ahead of a second meeting of finance ministers on Wednesday and an EU leader’s summit the following day, includes concessions that go far beyond previous offers made by the left-wing Syriza government.

Greece’s main concession is on pensions, long regarded as the major sticking point by its creditors, where it has unveiled plans to make almost €2.5 billion in savings.

Having vowed not to reduce state pensions during his successful election campaign in January, Tsipras’ government has proposed to raise €645 million over the next two years by increasing health contributions to 5 percent. Other savings will come from restricting early retirement and increasing state pension contributions.

Greece has also agreed to raise the retirement age to 67 by 2025.

The pension savings are equivalent to 0.37 percent and 1.05 percent of GDP in 2015 and 2016, moving closer to, but still below the 1 percent each year demanded by the eurozone.

On top of these savings, a regime of government payments to the poorest pensioners – known as Ekas – will be replaced in 2020. Public spending on pensions currently amounts to 16 percent of Greece’s GDP.

The fact that more than 2/3rds of the savings are back-loaded into 2016 suggests we’ll end up doing this same dance sometime next year. Greece may have (finally) agreed to enough reform that, if implemented (a big if) would at least keep it afloat until next year. But until they stop racking up debt to keep funding their welfare state, more economic pain inevitably lies ahead…

Governor Abbot Signs Emergency Prep Sale Tax Holiday Into Law

June 22nd, 2015

Put this in the category of news that didn’t make the news.

You may recall mention of two sales tax holiday bills working their way through the legislature.

The good news is that SB904, the emergency/preparation bill, was signed by Governor Abbott on June 15. While the law itself takes effect on September 1, the first day of the actual sales tax holiday for the enumerated emergency prep items is the last weekend in April, which in 2016 will be April 23-24. At the very least, consider it a good weekend to stock up on batteries.

As to why no news outlet seems to have even mentioned this fact in passing, I couldn’t tell you.

The bad news is that it appears both HB 849 and SB 228 died in committee before the end of the legislative session. Since no special session is currently planned, it seems unlikely there will be a hunting and guns sales tax holiday any time in the next two years.

Greece Introduces Capital Controls

June 22nd, 2015

The economic collapse of Greece is unfolding pretty much exactly as observers predicted it would: “Greek banks have imposed an unofficial ceiling of €3,000 on walk-in withdrawals, the commercial banker added.”

More capital controls are most likely coming, especially since bank runs have meant that Greek banks “will soon exhaust eligible assets they can pledge to the Bank of Greece for cash under the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) scheme.” The ECB backstopping of Greeek banks has been extended for today only. And today’s Eurozone talks have already broken off.

Despite that, Greece’s feckless ruling Syriza Party is still insisting on ignoring reality: “I repeat: The deal will either be compatible with the basic lines of Syriza’s election manifesto, or there will be no deal.”

Translation: “Europe must continue to throw money down the rat-hole of our bankrupt welfare state, or else!” What the “or else” might be when the country is already too bankrupt to pay pensions and keeps the lights on remains a mystery. The problem with holding a gun to your own head is that eventually someone will call your bluff.

Greece is finally finished with the “gradually” phase of their bankruptcy and is now in the “suddenly” phase…

Animation on the Greek Debt Crisis

June 21st, 2015

Even though this whiteboard animation is from 2012, it’s still mostly accurate.

My only quibbles would be:

  • It doesn’t mention how Greece lied about it’s finances to get into the Euro in the first place.
  • It doesn’t discuss what that debt was spent on, i.e., mainly an overly generous and unsustainable welfare state.
  • Because it was made in 2012, it overstates how exposed European banks will be to a Greek default. By now, banks and insiders have managed to offload the vast majority of their default exposure to Greek default onto the European taxpayer (which, of course, was the real primary purpose of the bailout).
  • But it gets the big picture right, namely how out-of-control debt destroys nations…

    Bank Runs Start in Greece

    June 20th, 2015

    The bank runs have started in Greece. Why the Greek peeople would even keep their money in banks, having the example of Cyprus’s bank “bail-ins” before them, would keep any but the most minimal amout of cash in a Greek bank is a mystery.

    Given that Greek banks are insolvent without the European Central Bank’s backstop, one wonders why Greek PM Alexis Tsipras thinks he can continue to bluff the EU caving on reform demands. It’s tough to bluff when you have no hole cards…

    There’s talk of a “new” Greek proposal, which could mean Tsipras and Syriza are finally coming to their senses and giving in to EU demands, or it could be just another smokescreen. I mean, we’ve only seen about a dozen “new” Greek proposals this year that didn’t offer meaningful reform. What’s one more?

    Stay tuned…

    Sad Puppies Redux (Or Why That Tor Boycott Won’t Work)

    June 19th, 2015

    There’s enough news on the Sad Puppies front that a lengthy follow-up post is called for.

    First, on May 11, Tor Books art director Irene Gallo stepped in it:

    There are two extreme right-wing to neo-nazi groups, called the Sad Puppies and Rabid Puppies respectively, that are calling for the end of social justice in science fiction and fantasy. They are unrepentantly racist, misogynist, and homophobic. A noisy few but they’ve been able to gather some Gamergate folks around them and elect a slate of bad-to-reprehensible works on this year’s Hugo ballot.

    This post was so false, ill-tempered and venomous that Tor head Tom Doherty had to issue an apology.

    Eric Flint, a respectable far-lefty (and a guy who bought a story from me for Jim Baen’s Universe), had this to say:

    And applying the term [neo-nazi] to the Sad Puppies is simply slander, pure and simple. I have no objection to calling either Brad Torgersen or Larry Correia “right wing,” because they are—and say as much themselves. If you want to add the term “extreme” because it makes you feel better, so be it. For whatever it’s worth, coming from someone who has seen extreme right-wingers a lot more up-close and personally than I suspect Irene Gallo ever has, I think applying the adjective to either Brad Torgersen or Larry Correia is not accurate. If we can descend into the real world, for a moment, what both men are is political conservatives with a libertarian slant who are also devout Mormons. (I mention their religion simply because, as with most religious people, it does influence their political views at least to some degree.)

    But leaving aside the issue of “extreme,” suggesting that either of them is a “neo-nazi” or anything remotely close is just disgusting. And don’t anyone bother protesting that Gallo didn’t actually make that charge directly since she did, after all, distinguish between “extreme right wing” and “neo-nazi.”

    Yes, I know she did—with the clear intent of smearing the two together. This is the sort of rhetorical device that Theodore Beale loves to use also, when he insists he doesn’t “advocate” shooting girls in the head for wanting to get an education, he just points out that, empirically and scientifically speaking, it’s “rational” for the Taliban to do so.

    I’m not guessing at Gallo’s intent, either, as will become blindingly obvious when we move on to her second sentence. But before I do so it’s necessary to address the last part of her first sentence, which is either as dishonest as the first part or is just silly, I’m not sure which:

    “…that are calling for the end of social justice in science fiction and fantasy.”

    Huh? The last time I looked, nobody except possibly Theodore Beale (and even with him you’d really have to squint) is calling for the end of social justice in F&SF. In one way or another, at least half of the stories written in our field—including ones by Brad Torgersen and Larry Correia—are stories in which the fight for social justice figures prominently. To be sure, people can disagree over what social justice really is and isn’t and the best way to achieve it. But who in hell is actually calling for social justice to end?

    Once again, Gallo is employing sleazy rhetoric. The charge which can accurately be laid at the feet of the Sad Puppies is that they are calling for an end (or at least amelioration) of what they believe to be the dominating influence of what they call “social justice warriors” over who gets nominated for and wins the Hugo Award. But translating that into the statement that they are “calling for the end of social justice in science fiction and fantasy” is ridiculous. You could just as easily charge me with “calling for the end of straight white males” because I do in fact believe that straight white males have an undue amount of power and influence in our society.

    Snip.

    In what sense can Brad Torgersen or Larry Correia or any person identified with the Sad Puppies be called racist, sexist and homophobic, much less “unrepentantly” so?

    Words matter, damn it. If Irene Gallo has any citations that would substantiate her charges, let her make them public. And if she can’t—and I’ll make a prediction here: she can’t—then she needs to publicly retract the accusation and apologize to the people against whom she made it.

    Period. There is nothing to discuss here. Put up or shut up.

    Gallo did indeed eventually offer an apology on her Facebook page, but it seems to me that saying you “painted with too broad a brush” when calling a wide range of writers and science fiction fans “neo-Nazis” is far too weak contrition indeed.

    On the other hand, Sad Puppy and Tor author John C. Wright has accepted her apology, stating “The insult was pro forma, ergo a pro forma apology is sufficient.”

    Since then, a few people on Twitter have been calling for a boycott of Tor Books over the incident. About this I would just like to make a few points:

  • Though the editorial stuff does lean toward the SJW side, plenty of conservative authors are published by Tor.
  • An ad hoc, Twitter-organized boycott is deeply unlikely to work. Given the way book sales are tracked, it’s unlikely the financial effects of any boycott would stand out from sales figures more than background noise. Most SF readers probably aren’t even active on Twitter, and even fewer have been following every twist and turn of the Sad Puppy Saga.
  • Given that Tor is a very small part of the Bertelsmann Holtzbrinck [see below — LP] international conglomerate, chances are even less likely that that any boycott would be effective or even noticed.
  • Larry Correia has categorically stated that the Sad Puppies are not calling for any boycotts. He also notes, as he invariably does, “All I’m asking is that whatever you do, try to be as civil as possible in your disagreements.”
  • So put me down in the category of thinking a boycott is foolish, pointless and counterproductive.

    One big point on the Sad Puppies campaign: Most recent domestic Worldcons have topped out in the 4,000-6,000 members range. I recently bought a Supporting Membership in Sasquan, and my membership number was in the 9,000s. This tends to indicate that the Hugos have indeed become a test of strength in the culture wars. Science fiction fans who want to make a point would probably find it far more productive to pony up their $40 for a Supporting Membership and vote for the works they like than threatening boycotts.

    Greece’s Final, Final, Final Deadline…Finally?

    June 18th, 2015

    Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Google News is once again filled with Greece on the Brink headlines and the Telegraph has started a live update page for the Greek debt crisis. Today’s Eurogroup meeting ended without any deal, Merkel says she won’t budge, and Greece admits they have no money to make their bundled payment to the IMF at the end of the month.

    And the IMF has said there will be no grace period if Greece misses their June 30 deadline.

    Also, tomorrow Greece owes €85 million to the European Central Bank. Since the ECB backstop is the only reason Greek banks aren’t already insolvent, I suspect Greece will find some way to make that payment, even if it means raiding the Emergency Transplants for Crippled Orphans fund.

    Other than that, things are going swimmingly.

    The sticking point, as always, is Greece’s insistence that the rest of Europe lend it more so as to allow Greece to continue spending insanely more money than it actually has on its bloated welfare state, and that it absolutely will not cut government pensions (the pensions it will be unable to pay without a loan anyway) at all. But “Greece still spends more than any other country in the European Union on pensions as a proportion to GDP – with the country shelling out a whopping 17.5 percent.”

    British tourists are warned to take cash if they’re vacationing in Greece, since cash machines and credit cards may not work due to capital controls.

    How much is Greece uncertainty weighing down stocks?

    Eh, not so much…

    Jihadsville, West Yorkshire

    June 17th, 2015

    The town of Dewsbury in West Yorkshire is punching above its weight when it comes to producing Jihadists:

    Set in a quiet corner of West Yorkshire, on first glance the former mill town of Dewsbury looks perfectly innocent.

    But bubbling away under the surface of the thriving community is a deep-rooted problem with hardline Islamic extremism.

    Home to Talha Asmal – the 17-year-old boy believed to be Britain’s youngest suicide bomber – Dewsbury is also where two of Britain’s 7/7 bombers lived, including the man who masterminded the attack, Mohammad Sidique Khan.

    7/7 refers to the July 7, 2005 subway bombings in London that killed 52 civilians.

    Of course, the shocking thing about this story is just how unshocking it’s become. Is anyone surprised anymore when some small UK village hosts its own hardened jihad cell? It’s simply the reality of modern Britain.

    (Hat tip: Jihad Watch.)

    Lazy Rachel Dolezal Post

    June 16th, 2015

    By now you’ve probably read all about Rachel Dolezal, the the black woman who’s actually a white girl, and who just resigned her position as Presidnet of the Spokane NAACP.

    Back when she was white, she sued predominately black Howard University, which she was attending on a scholarship for her art “which specialized in portraits of African-Americans,” for discriminating her because she was white.

    So what do I have to add, coming as late as I do to the equine flogging queue? How about some snarky tweets?

    Colt Files for Bankruptcy

    June 16th, 2015

    In a move that had been a long time coming, Colt Defense LLC filed for bankruptcy on Monday.

    It takes an epic level of incompetence for a gun company to lose money in the era of Obama, but Colt was obviously up to the challenge.

    Colt has struggled in recent years with supply-chain and working capital issues, a slowdown in rifle sales and its 2013 loss of a key contract to supply the U.S. Army with the M4. As a result of some of its operational issues, the company has had accounting problems that caused it to revise prior years’ reported financial results and miss a creditor’s initial filing deadline for an annual report, according to regulatory filings.

    Ask gunnies what the problem with Colt is, and they’ll tell you a disinterest in the civilian market compared to pursuing government contracts, as well as a desire to charge premium prices for ordinary guns. That, plus the “felonious mismanagement” is what did them in.

    A shame. With competent management, the makers of the AR-15 should have been making money hand over fist the last six years…