24,000 Austin Area Residents Still Without Power

February 7th, 2023

My own power has stayed on continuously since Saturday morning, but a lot of Austin-area residents are not so fortunate.

There are still 24,000 Austinites still without power as of Monday morning, with a projected point of resolution still six days away.

Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for Travis County and six others across the state on Saturday. That opened the door to deploy “all available” state resources necessary to help alleviate the issues. Austin and Travis County officials issued their own disaster declarations last week.

Across the whole state, 32,600 people are without power, down from the near-half a million in the middle of last week. Marked progress has been made, but Austin Energy continues to struggle to restore power for the remnant after an ice storm downed power lines across its service area.

Falling tree branches are the foremost culprit of the circuit disruption, and certain areas experienced repeated outages after successive breaks occurred.

Indeed. In the 2021 ice storm, power outages were due to ERCOT’s over-reliance on renewable energy sources, failure to match supply to demand, and foolishly power-cycling areas (like the Permian Basin) that made things worse by constraining energy supplies, but the 2023 ice storm outages were almost entirely due to power-line being taken out by ice-encrusted branches. (In my neighborhood, pretty much every house had multiple large branches snap off from the ice accumulation, and several people lost entire trees.)

“Based on current information, we expect to restore power to nearly all remaining customers by Sunday, February 12, with the exception of those in need of electrical repairs to customer-owned or maintained equipment,” the City of Austin said in a Monday morning release. In addition to home outages, there were 36 traffic signals out as of Sunday afternoon.

But looking ahead to this week’s forecast, the city cautioned, “The expected weather conditions this week may damage power lines and already weakened trees, causing additional outages, increasing the risk for our lineworkers, and slowing progress.”

Austin Energy, the city-owned utility provider, contracted linemen from surrounding utilities to assist with the repair endeavor.

Officials stated that the ice accumulation was heavier and more pervasive than during the 2021 blackouts, which were caused mainly by a statewide power grid failure and not local downed power lines.

One big contributing factor seems to be that tree removal near power lines hasn’t always been a priority for Austin Energy.

Ice on power lines and nearby branches is to blame for most of Austin Energy’s power outages this week.

Austin Energy’s website shows tree clearance is based on the type of tree.

Fast-growing trees, like pecan, have a 15-foot clearance. The slow-growing species, like cedar, have a 10-foot clearance. Any trees near high-voltage transmission cables must be trimmed 25 feet back.

Austin Energy’s website shows three contracting companies were hired to help clear a backlog of work around the city.

“Vegetation management is something that we’re very focused on. Over the past several years we have increased our budget and our focus to trim trees. We could really use help in that area with getting our residents to understand the importance of vegetation management, to allow our crews in, to get the vegetation management done. We can always be better,” Jackie Sargent, general manager for Austin Energy, said in a press conference Thursday.

Before Austin Energy trims any tree, the company considers the seasons that oak wilt peaks at and if any tree contains bird habitats.

“We make every effort to avoid trimming red oak and live oak trees between February through June when oak wilt is more likely to spread. When possible, we avoid trimming from March to September to protect Golden-cheeked Warbler and Black-capped Vireo habitat areas (applies to undeveloped areas west of MoPac). However, we conduct limited trimming on oak trees during the oak wilt window in areas that are experiencing frequent vegetation-related outages or emergency situations,” Austin Energy’s website shows.

What are mere tax- and energy bill-paying citizens compared to the safety of the Golden-cheeked Warbler and Black-capped Vireo?

Looking at the 2022 Austin Energy Annual Report, the words “trees” and “pruning” do not appear anywhere at all, but “Green” shows up 11 hits. Appearing green seems a much higher priority for Austin Energy and the Austin City Council than trimming the actual greenery necessary to ensure the lights stay on.

Some adjustment seems in order.

Follow-Up on Ukraine’s Kamikaze Drones

February 6th, 2023

Given that the original video generated doubts as to its veracity, I thought I would post this followup that goes into more detail about Ukraine’s low-cost suicide drone/loitering munition.

  • These look considerably less jury-rigged than the previous drones.
  • “These are publicly funded…Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense made a public appeal for donations to buy 1,000 of these.”

  • There seem to be different types with different warhead sizes. “The technical details are a bit vague. I’ve seen mentioned ranges of just two kilometers to over 10 kilometers.”
  • We see the successful attacks, but not the failures.
  • “These cost around 200 to manufacture, so they’re also extremely cost effective.” Indeed, even more cost-effective than my original estimates.
  • Two Videos About Velma

    February 5th, 2023

    Velma, if you haven’t heard, is HBO Max’s “re-imagining” of the animated Scooby-Doo TV show. And by “reimagined” I mean “mangled and mutilated to fit the angry, narrow confines of social justice warrior ideology.”

    Since I don’t have cable, I can’t go out of my way to watch it for the sake of reviewing it, so let’s let The Critical Drinker take a whack at it:

    If that weren’t enough, let’s let Ryan George of Pitch Meeting also take his turn at bat:

    The original Scooby-Doo is hardly going to go down in the annals of television as a classic on the order of Hill Street Blues or I Love Lucy, but it was a solid, wholesome kid-vid TV show that made good use of its limited animation budgets to produce solid, fondly remembered shows that the franchise was strong enough to survive decades of tweaks (“with special guest Don Knotts”), soft reboots, a series of unlikely direct to video movies…

    …two “meh at best” live action movies, and even inflicting The Vile Abomination on American viewers.

    Even apart from the social justice idiocy, throwing away that legacy for derisive belittlement is just wrong. Moreover, these projects never seem to be profitable or even well-received (remember the disasterous Land of the Lost remake with Will Ferrell?). If you don’t treat the source material with a due amount of respect, all you’re doing pissing off generations of people that grew up watching the originals.

    This sort of thing is natural meat for The Critical Drinker, who delights in tearing into Social Justice crap. But the pointed Pitch Meeting takedown seems far more significant, as George has never been one to wade in culture war commentary.

    Velma seems to be the show that everyone hates.

    Power Back On After 60 Hours

    February 4th, 2023

    The power came on back here about 6:30 AM. Now I need to take a long hot shower after giving the water time to warm up, then go through the fridge and freezer to determine what gets thrown out.

    Expect slow and/or lazy blogging this weekend, followed by maybe a LinkSwarm on Monday on Monday, and then maybe a lessons learned post later in the week.

    Edited to add: And now it’s off again…

    And on again.

    And then off for a few minutes.

    And now (1:08 PM) it’s on again.

    It would be nice if Austin Energy could get this sorted out…

    Power Out Day 2

    February 3rd, 2023

    Day 2 of being without power.

    I was recharging my iPhone on different laptops, but that stopped working. I have been able to recharge it using my car charger, so I drove around the neighborhood looking at the damage. Almost every house has a limb or tree down.

    ETA is still 6 PM tonight, but I don’t think anyone believes that. A good number of my friends are still without power as well.

    The cold was trivial compared to the last ice storm, but the king freezing rain this time made the tree damage absolutely devastating.

    Whatever lessons Austin Energy learned after the last I’ve storm, “Stay on top of tree branch trimming near power lines” doesn’t appear to be among them…

    Power Out Here

    February 2nd, 2023

    Since 6:08 yesterday evening. Much of Austin is also so afflicted. Expect slow blogging and much shivering…

    Update:

    The forecast brings additional risks of power outages and downed trees, which plagued the city yesterday and still impacts over 155,000 Austin Energy customers who don’t have power. A spokesperson with the utility company said it expects full restoration by Friday at 6 p.m.

    Update 2: 24 hours and still out. New Austin Energy ETA for all outages is Friday night

    The Flying Yeet of Death

    February 1st, 2023

    I’ve previously covered suicide drones and drones dropping RPGs. Now Ukraine is evidently cutting out the middleman and passing the savings on to Ivan by just strapping RPGs to light drones and guiding them in.

    Here’s a screen-grab of this masterpiece of redneck engineering:

    The is a great application of one of Murphy’s Military Laws: “If it’s stupid but it works, it ain’t stupid.” For the Russians, it must be quite embarrassing to get yeeted into the afterlife by Doogie Howser’s science fair project.

    I’m somewhat surprised that drones that small can carry the RPG rounds effectively, but presumably they’re replacing camera gear or something close to the same weight.

    An RPG-7 costs about $2,500 each, while a BMP-3 costs about $800,000 each. Even if you double the price for the quadcopter ($2,500 is a bit pricey, but not out-of-line for some pro rigs), you still get a hugely useful loitering munition for less than 1/100th the cost of the target you’re taking out…

    Japan, The Netherlands Join China Semiconductor Ban

    January 31st, 2023

    Japan and The Netherlands have evidently decided to sign onto the Chinese semiconductor ban.

    The talks between the US, Japan, and the Netherlands over wider bans on exports of semiconductor technology to China have reportedly seen the three agree to concerted action.

    As The Register has often chronicled, the US has restricted exports of critical chipmaking and silicon technologies to China, hoping to prevent its economic and strategic rival from developing military technologies – and to protest human rights abuses.

    While the Home of the Brave has spawned many of Earth’s most significant chipmakers and designers – Intel, AMD, Qualcomm and many others have headquarters stateside – other nations also export semiconductor tech to China. The Land of the Free would rather put a stop to that if possible.

    The Biden Administration also recognizes that its bans could be seen as creating an opportunity for other nations to cash in on the absence of US vendors in the Chinese market. The three-nation talks therefore have the extra dimension of making sure America’s policies have their desired effect against China and don’t harm the home team.

    Those twin desires saw Japan and the Netherlands in talks with the US last week, and according to numerous reports the meetings produced a unified approach to restrict semiconductor exports to China.

    Without equipment from the US, Japan and The Netherlands, you can’t equip and run a modern semiconductor fabrication plant.

    Peter Zeihan (him again), who has evidently lost a bet requiring him to dress as Gimli, discusses the ramifications.

    This is one case where Zeihan gets the generalities right, but is wrong on some specifics.

  • Right: The idea that China can just forge a complete “alternative” semiconductor supply chain out of thin air to replace western alternatives is indeed “hideously wrong.” “The nature of the semiconductor industry is more of an ecosystem. There are there’s very few places that without, significant industrial build out, could even pretend to do more than two or three steps of it, much less than a dozen or so steps that are necessary.”
  • However, in conflating semiconductor manufacturing and semiconductor equipment manufacturing (possibly to avoid contracting hypothermia) he’s muddied things up a bit. There are five essential semiconductor equipment manufacturers:
    • Applied Materials (USA)
    • ASML (The Netherlands)
    • KLA (USA)
    • LAM Research (USA)
    • Tokyo Electron (Japan)

    If you’re building a modern, sub-10nm fab, chances are pretty good you need all five. You have to have an ASML EUV stepper, or else you have to go with trailing-edge machines from Canon and Nikon and deal with the computational pain and complexity of self-aligned quadruple patterning. You need KLA inspection tools to raise and maintain yields, and you need, at the very least, one of AMAT, LAM or TEL to provide the rest. Take away all three and you can’t equip a fab, period.

  • “We now have an agreement, and very soon the Dutch will formally be joining the sanction system against the Chinese.”
  • “The best [chips], these are 10 nanometer and smaller. This is typically what’s in your cell phone or in your high-end computers and servers those about 80% percent of them are actually fabricated in Taiwan, with another 20% in South Korea.” No. Although TSMC and Samsung are indeed leaders in this space, Intel has had 10nm processes running in their advanced fabs is Hillsboro and Chandler for a while, even though they’ve suffered yield problems.
  • His assertion that only China does legacy 90nm and above processes is false, as a look at this list of wafer fabs will attest, as there are a lot of companies (TI, TowerJazz, Oki, Mitsubishi, etc.) still profitably running older nodes, though many are comparatively funky technologies like BiCMOS, Analog, GaAs, etc.
  • Some quibbles about the details, but he gets the big picture right.

    As for his suggestion that companies stick to over 10nm nodes, well, I don’t think much of it. Those that can do >10nm nodes will and push the technology forward, and those that can’t afford to won’t…

    Jordan Peterson on Joe Rogan: 2023 Edition

    January 30th, 2023

    Jordan Peterson always makes a great Joe Rogan guest, and the new interview they did last week is no exception.

    Discussing the Twitter files, Critical Race Theory and Marxism, victimhood identity politics, postmodern theory, and falseness of reducing everything to power dynamics.

    On the World Economic Forum:

  • “Globalist Utopian Tyranny” is a great phrase.
  • They follow in the wake of “Paul Ehrlich, in the 1960s, who really believe, really believe, truly, that maybe the planet should only have 500 million people on it.”
  • There then follows a devastating take-down of the immortality of pushing 350 million of the world’s poorest to the brink of death through higher energy prices in the hope that maybe 100 years from now life for the poor will be better. I encourage you to watch the entirety of this segment for that.
  • “It’s a little bit too convenient for me that your prescriptions to save the planet are accompanied by this insistence that the only way forward to that is to give you all the power. It’s like there’s a bit of a moral hazard in, that don’t you think?”
  • “Do you want to save the planet, or do you want the power? And let’s let’s put the second one first, because the probability that you’re a saint or the messiah is pretty damn low. So that’s the danger of the Davos crowd.”
  • I suspect I’ll be putting up more snippets from this interview sometime this week…

    California Hates Your Freedom So Much They Want To Tax You For Leaving

    January 29th, 2023

    One-Party Democratic California is so desperate for cash they want to tax people for leaving.

    Desperate to stem the stampede of cash cows — affluent residents — out of their state, they are trying to pass an exit tax for households with assets of $50 million or more. Current residents would have to keep paying for years after they have decamped to less hostile states.

    Heaven forbid that these legislators should instead come to terms with the reasons so many productive residents flee or what they could do to make their state a more attractive destination for people and businesses. They aren’t much concerned with that, merely with stopping the flight of all that revenue. If they cared about the livelihoods of the people leaving, they probably would have governed in a way that didn’t prompt people to head for the exits.

    This is probably unconstitutional nine ways to Sunday. Wealth tax, Ex-Post Facto law, taxation without representation, etc. It’s also likely to be counterproductive, as rich people are not only likely to leave the state preemptively to avoid being subject to it, but are exactly the people that can hire top-notch lawyers to get it overturned.

    Louis Rossmann, who recently fled New York City to Austin, has additional thoughts:

  • “They are showing and demonstrating here they have no confidence in their ability to govern better, or in their ability to actually give the customers of that state what they want, because they’re telling you ‘We’re not going to make things better. Rather, if you leave we are going to figure out a way to fine you.'”
  • “It demonstrates a sick ideology that’s both just authoritarian and disgusting in nature.”
  • “It’s not like [the tax rates in California and New York] just spiked up insanely over the past one or two years, they’ve been higher than the tax rate in Texas and Florida for as long as I’ve been alive, by a fairly large margin. This is not news. It’s something else in addition to that, and they don’t even appear to be interested in trying to figure out what that is.”
  • “Florida and Texas…have not had income tax for a very long time.”
  • “Maybe it would make sense to actually ask people what changed over the past two or three or five years that caused you to decide that you want to move your business and get the fuck out.”
  • “I could tell you from experience that losing half of your employees, putting all your stuff in a truck, carting it across the country. and spending months putting it all back together is insanely stressful, and not something that I’m going to do so I could save six or eight percent of my income tax.”
  • “Why are you then going to bake more taxes, and then have a fine for leaving that is then going to discourage anybody else that has the same concern from ever coming to your state thereby ensuring that the population of people that are productive and create value diminishes.”
  • “The idea of being taxed based on what you are worth at a particular time without actually cashing it out is insane to me.”
  • Long, correct discussion of why long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate snipped. (I doubt many of my readers don’t already understand, or disagree.) Ditto the discussion of how investment creates jobs.
  • “People deciding to defer their gratification, to decide ‘I will wait for the large payoff 10 to 20 years from now rather than make a decision that results in me getting more money right now,’ and I think that that it should be discussed more often because if it’s not, then we are going to end up with stuff like this.”
  • He discusses the slippery slope argument: The bill already states the tax will start at billionaires, but then in two years hit people with a net worth of $50 million or more. “Once it gets low enough like once this makes its way off to 10 million or a million, because again this is going to slip.”
  • And just wait until it hits the net worth not only of individuals, but of businesses.