Multiple Russian Fronts Collapsing

October 5th, 2022

Ukraine continues to liberate territory from its Russian occupiers, not only in the Kharkiv/northeast front, but also on the Kherson/southwest front, where the last few days have seen a rapid collapse in Russian lines.

ISW’s daily brief:

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts on October 4. Ukrainian forces liberated several settlements on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River along the T2207 highway, forcing Russian forces to retreat to the south toward Kherson City. Ukrainian forces also continued to push south along the Dnipro River and the T0403 highway, severing two Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in northern Kherson Oblast and forcing Russians south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border toward the Beryslav area. Ukrainian military officials noted that the Ukrainian interdiction campaign is crippling Russian attempts to transfer additional ammunition, reserves, mobilized men, and means of defense to frontline positions. Ukrainian forces also continued to advance east of the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian sources claimed that battles are ongoing near the R66 Svatove-Kreminna highway.

Kreminna seems to be the next big target for Ukrainian forces to take in Luhansk, allowing them to cut a major supply line and directly threaten Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Here’s a detailed description of the collapse of the northern portion of the Kherson front.

For another idea how rapid that advance have been, here are snapshots of the Deep State war map on 10/1 and 10/4.

Since most of the bridges over both the Inhulets and Dnipro rivers have been blown up, Russian forces are at significant risk of being cutoff and unable to retreat.

And just as I was working on this, a Peter Zeihan video on the topic dropped:

Takeaways:

  • Kherson: “The entire Russian line has crumbled.”
  • “Kherson is the only major city Russia has captured in seven months.”
  • “This is the greatest concentration of Russian forces, and it is the best troops Russia has.”
  • They also have the best equipment. If the Ukrainians capture it, it would be even better than Kharkiv.
  • “I still believe this is Russia’s war to lose. The first year of all Russia’s wars look a lot like this. Bad training, bad coordination, poorly maintained equipment.” Modern warfare seldom gives you an entire year to sort your problems out.
  • “Watch Kherson closely. This could be where the war is decided.”
  • Russia seems to be retreating everywhere save the central front in Donetsk, where they seem to be eking out tiny, meaningless gains of a square kilometer or two a day. That’s not a recipe for success.

    The Sounds of Silencers

    October 4th, 2022

    Ken Paxton clears a hurdle in his goal to expanding the freedom of Texans under federalism.

    A lawsuit by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton seeking to exempt Texas-made suppressors from federal regulations will move forward, after federal Judge Mark Pittman on Monday ruled against a motion to dismiss the case.

    The ruling constitutes a procedural win for Paxton and co-plaintiffs in the case, which was filed on behalf of several Texas residents.

    Attorney Tony McDonald, legal counsel for several of the plaintiffs, wrote on social media that the “big (initial) win” will allow the case to move forward and that the judge rejected the argument that suppressors are firearms accessories and not protected by the Second Amendment.

    “Obviously this doesn’t mean we’ll win, but importantly it signals Pittman rejects [the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives]’s argument that suppressors are just accessories and are not protected by the 2A. That seemed to be a pretty clear legal question that, if accepted, meant we had no case,” McDonald wrote.

    At issue is House Bill (HB) 957, a Texas law recently passed by Representative Tom Oliverson (R-Cypress) exempting firearms silencers or suppressors from federal regulations if they are manufactured, marked, and kept in the State of Texas.

    The law empowers the Texas attorney general to file suit on behalf of private citizens who wish to manufacture a suppressor and to obtain a court order enjoining the federal government from enforcing federal firearms regulations before the citizen can move forward.

    Under current federal laws, anyone purchasing a firearm suppressor must fill out an extensive background check application, pay a $200 tax, and wait for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives to issue their approval — a wait that can sometimes take over a year.

    Today’s ruling only allows the case to move forward and doesn’t guarantee either side a final victory.

    The case has considerable importance not only on Second Amendment grounds, but on Tenth Amendment grounds as well. It is obvious that the Founders only intended to regulate commerce between states, not within a single state, and much government-expanding mischief has been wrought in the name of the commerce clause. Breathing new life into the Tenth Amendment would help remedy that.

    Now we’ll see if the case can make it all the way to the Supreme Court…

    Important Lesson: Don’t Trust Alex Jones

    October 3rd, 2022

    Alex Jones is one of those gadfly media personalities that gets lumped in with regular conservative media, partial to smear said media (“Alex Jones, Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, they’re all lunatics!”) and partially because sometimes Jones exposes some of the same holes in The Narrative that sane people do (Flu Manchu vaccines come to mind). He’s more of a loony libertarian fringe figure than a traditional conservative.

    Jones gets lots of things wrong, and many of his ideas are crazy, as indicated by the whole Sandy Hook trial. No one should mistake his views for mainstream conservative thought. That said, I think it is a grave mistake to push Jones off social media like YouTube and Twitter. Let him be wrong, and let people point out he’s wrong.

    Tyler “Hoovie” Hoover is a car YouTuber (“Welcome to Hoovie’s Garage, the dumbest automotive channel in all YouTube!”) who buys, drives, and pays to have repaired various interesting cars, some of which he later resells. I think he popped up in my YouTube feed because I watch a lot of Top Gear/Grand Tour videos.

    Today’s lesson in why you can’t trust Alex Jones comes from the intersection of these two.

    Act I: Hoovie goes in with a friend to buy 50% of an all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck. Overall he seems pretty pleased with the truck, which has plenty of acceleration. Video linked rather than embedded, as most of it is peripheral to the discussion.

    Act II: Hoovie tries to use the Lightning to tow an old Ford Model-A truck on a lightweight aluminum trailer, and find outs that the range while towing is absolutely horrible. “I used 90 miles of range in 30 miles!”

    I wouldn’t ding a car manufacturer for towing eating up that much range in, say, a Tesla car or a Prius. But towing a trailer is one of the primary use cases for a big pickup like the Ford F-150. Moreover, it’s a use case that other large gas or diesel powered pickup trucks handle pretty well.

    Act III: Alex Jones finds Hoovie’s video on the Lightning and then proceeds to Alex Jones all over it:

    It’s a pretty bad look when you’re commenting on the video in real time and just making shit up that isn’t there. Hoovie didn’t say it couldn’t get above 25 miles an hour, or that it lacked torque, he said it had range problems when towing.

    There are real concerns about the ability of electric vehicles to replace gasoline-powered transportation, especially under the pressure of irrational green mandates. But if Alex Jones was rational, he wouldn’t have to make up crazy shit that people didn’t say to make his point.

    More Fraudsters Arrested For Stealing Taxpayer Money

    October 2nd, 2022

    Remember: When it seems like grant money is handed out mainly to be raked off as graft, that’s only because it frequently is.

    Federal officials are calling it one of the largest pandemic fraud cases in the country —which is quite a feat considering the billions stolen from the Paycheck Protection Plan and billions more stolen in Unemployment Insurance. But here we are: 49 people have been arrested in connection with the Feeding Our Future fraud case, and the list could be growing.

    According to a Fox affiliate, “authorities alleged the massive fraud scheme took at least $250 million from the federal child nutrition program — money that was intended to help feed children during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

    One of the more prominent names on the list of fraudsters, Mohamed Noor, is a community journalist and owner of a media company in Minneapolis. Noor was charged earlier this week for stealing federal money meant to help fee low-income families —nice guy, Mr Noor.

    Moor is the owner of Xogmaal Media Group, one of the companies that fraudulently received and misappropriated Federal Child Nutrition Program funds.

    Mohamed, who’s widely known as Deeq Darajo, was trying to flee the country to avoid prosecution —luckily, he was apprehended.

    From The Sahan Journal:

    Xogmaal used Feeding Our Future as a sponsor to receive federal funding for meals through the federal Child and Adult Care Food Program.

    Federal prosecutors say Deeq Darajo is the cousin of Abdikerm Eidleh, a former Feeding Our Future employee who federal prosecutors allege took more than $3 million in kickbacks from food sites to enroll them in the Child Nutrition Programs.

    The charges say a Feeding Our Future employee expressed concern about enrolling Xogmaal in the Child Nutrition Programs in February 2021.

    “We took a lot of organization [sic] that don’t work with children or are advocate, [sic] I am just realizing that now,” an unnamed employee wrote to Feeding Our Future Executive Director Aimee Bock in an email, according to the charges. “For example Xogmaal is a TV show program. They have no interest with children. These are the things we need to clean up.”

    “Bock still submitted Xogmaal’s application to the Minnesota Department of Education, which administers the Child Nutrition Programs for the state, according to the charges. Soon Xogmaal claimed to be feeding 1,000 children a day, seven days a week. By April 2021, Xogmaal claimed to feed 1,500 kids a day, seven days a week, according to the charges.”

    But Xogmaal wasn’t feeding any children. Instead, Xogmaal received close to $500,000 in food-aid money —$387,000 of this was sent to shell companies controlled by Abdikerm.

    (Hat tip: Director Blue.)

    FYI: This Mohamed Noor, Mohamed Muse Noor, does not seem to be the same as former police officer Mohamed Noor, who recently did time for manslaughter of an unarmed woman, or Democratic State representative Mohamud Noor.

    You can’t tell your Noors without a scorecard.

    But back to the Noor at hand, what sort of media company was Xogmaal? One focused on Somali issues, in the Somali language. Click on the contact us link, and you can see the fine attention to detail the firm displayed.

    Nothing screams “quality” quite like “Lorem ipsum.”

    I thought to myself “What are the odds that the people involved in this scam are making donation to Democratic candidates? I’m guessing pretty good.”

    I was correct.

    At least nine of the 48 people accused of defrauding the government of $250 million meant to feed hungry children have donated to Democratic officeholders in Minnesota.

    The number is likely higher and Alpha News is working to confirm the identities of additional defendants.

    Campaign finance records show 42-year-old Liban Yasin Alishire donated $2,500 in May of this year to the reelection campaign of Attorney General Keith Ellison.

    Alishire listed Hoodo Properties as his employer, which was a shell company he created to purchase luxury items and real estate with money he stole from the government, according to an indictment.

    Snip.

    Liban Yasin Alishire

  • Attorney General Keith Ellison: $2,500 (5/27/22)
  • Abdinasir Mahamed Abshir

  • Sen. Omar Fateh: $1,000 (6/6/21)
  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: $1,000 (7/27/21)
  • Minneapolis Council Member Jeremiah Ellison: $600 (12/20/21)
  • Asad Mohamed Abshir

  • Sen. Omar Fateh: $1,000 (6/6/21)
  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: $1,000 (7/27/21)
  • Abdihakim Ali Ahmed

  • Sen. Omar Fateh: $1,000 (6/6/2021)
  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: $1,000 (7/27/21)
  • U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar: $2,700 (3/31/2021)
  • Ahmed Abdullahi Ghedi

  • Sen. Omar Fateh: $1,000 (6/6/21)
  • Minneapolis Council Member Jeremiah Ellison: $600 (12/20/21)
  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: $1,000 (7/27/21)
  • U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar: $2,700 (2/23/21)
  • Salim Ahmed Said

  • Sen. Omar Fateh: $1,000 (6/6/21)
  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: $1,000 (7/27/21)
  • Minneapolis Council Member Jeremiah Ellison: $600 (12/20/21)
  • Abdulkadir Nur Salah

  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: $1,000 (7/26/21)
  • Minneapolis Council Member Jeremiah Ellison: $600 (12/20/21)
  • Abdikadir Ainanshe Mohamud, previously served on Mayor Frey’s community safety working group

  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: $1,000 (7/26/21)

    Abdi Nur Salah, former aide to Mayor Frey

  • Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: $1,000 (7/27/21)
  • Hmm, it’s like all of them have something in common…

    If you see “community activists” committing fraud, it’s a good bet that donations to Democrats are not far behind.

    The Ukrainian Way of War

    October 1st, 2022

    This is an interesting video of Ukrainian tanks taking out a Russian strongpoint dubbed “Moscow.”

    Takeaways:

  • They had to break off the attack and return to base for more ammunition. “A tank has 22 shells, which isn’t enough for attack.” By contrast the M1A2 holds 42 rounds. The rapid depletion of ammo in the Yom Kippur War was one reason the Israelis designed the Merkava with a rear access door to allow quick ammo resupply.
  • “They didn’t expect our tanks. They thought it would be just infantry.”
  • “We used all our ammo up in two minutes.”
  • Instead of the squadron commander participating in the attack (as per Soviet doctrine), “he used quadracopter drones and could see the combat scenes and command the tanks in real time.”
  • “Our personnel worked with infantry and special forces. We cleared the way through the forest for them.” That involved clearing lots of mines and booby traps.
  • They said they cleared the way from Husarivka to Bayrak. Which means they were probably involved in the push on Lyman. Husarivka is just east of Barvinkova in the bottom left of this map.

  • As has become the norm, retreating Russian soldiers left behind buttloads of ammo. The Russians may have depleted their smart munitions, but they don’t appear to have any shortage of the dumb variety. “A 15 kilometer forest was full of empty ammo boxes.”
  • Troops breaking and retreating despite plenty of ammo suggests continuing low morale among the invading Russians (or their local conscript cannon fodder).
  • “There was good coordination between our infantry, tanks and artillery.” Classic western combined arms doctrine, something the Russians have seemed mostly incapable of pulling off.
  • Also, the Ukrainian military have reported entering Lyman:

    LinkSwarm for September 30, 2022

    September 30th, 2022

    More Democrats convicted for committing voting fraud, Russian forces are driven out of Lyman, and the Eurocrats freak out of Italy’s voters daring to disobey their wishes. Plus advice on what not to invest in.
    
    

  • Biden CDC Awarded Millions To Soros-Funded Activist Group Suing DeSantis.”

    In February, 2021, the Biden administration-run Centers for Disease Control (CDC) awarded a Soros-backed pro-migrant nonprofit $7.5 million under the guise of pandemic-related support for “LATINX ESSENTIAL WORKERS AS HEALTH PROMOTERS,” and aimed “to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and mitigate impacts among Latinx and Latin American immigrants,” according to an analysis by the Daily Caller.

    The group, Alianza Americas, is currently suing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and other Florida officials over migrant flights to Martha’s Vineyard earlier this month.

    The group has also received nearly $1.4 million from George Soros’ Open Society Network.

    Alianza Americas is “focused on improving the quality of life of all people in the U.S.-Mexico-Central America migration corridor.” The membership-based group, which Soros’ Open Society Foundations network (OSF) sent almost $1.4 million to between 2016 and 2020, was awarded a $7.5 million CDC grant in February 2021, according to a grant listing reviewed by the Daily Caller News Foundation. -Daily Caller

    The CDC funds were distributed under a program called “Protecting and Improving Health Globally: Building and Strengthening Public Health Impact, Systems, Capacity and Security.”

    Add this to the many, many things Republicans should investigate if they gain a congressional majority.
    

  • More of that voting fraud that doesn’t exist:

    Former U.S. Rep. Michael “Ozzie” Myers, a Pennsylvania Democrat, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to deprive voters of civil rights, bribery, obstruction of justice, falsification of voting records, conspiring to illegally vote in a federal election, and orchestrating schemes to fraudulently stuff ballot boxes for specific Democrat candidates in Pennsylvania elections held from 2014 to 2018. Myers was sentenced Tuesday by U.S. District Judge Paul S. Diamond to 30 months in prison, three years supervised release, and ordered to pay $100,000 in fines, with $10,000 of that due immediately, according to a statement from U.S. Attorney Jacqueline C. Romero.

    (Previously.) (Hat tip: Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit.)

  • Russian forces appear to be abandoning Lyman, which is cut off and surrounded.

  • “A right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party” won Italy’s election and will form a new majority government.
  • Naturally, the Eurocratic elite are far from thrilled that Italians exercised unapproved voting preferences. “EU Commission President Threatens Italy On Eve Of Election, Says Brussels Has ‘Tools’ If Wrong Parties Win.”
  • Funny how they mention that some fascists were involved in founding Meloni’s party, but never mention how the Partito Democratico, the leftist and second largest party in Italy, were formerly commies.
  • Voters Widely Favor GOP Candidate in Competitive House Districts.”
  • And there’s reason to believe they’re actually doing better than that.
  • “Ninth Circuit Strikes Down California Plan to Close Prisons for Illegal Aliens.” One of President Trump’s many accomplishments was flipping the Ninth Circuit from a loony leftist laboratory to a court that actually followed the Constitution. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • “This Ohio School District Is Promoting an ‘LGBTQ+ Resource Guide’ With Instructions on Sex Work, Abortions. Hilliard City School District guide also encourages students to transition gender without parental consent.” All this encouraged by the National Education Association, which evidently thinks it is perfectly fine to literally instruct your children on how to be whores. (Hat tip: Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit.)
  • A double-dose of Glenn Greenwald:

  • Tranny turns out to be traitor.
  • Michael Avenatti Ordered to Pay Restitution to Stormy Daniels in Fraud Lawsuit.” There’s not a violin small enough.
  • Google’s Manifest V3 for Chrome is trying to kill ad- and tracking-blockers. Another good reason to use another browser.
  • Important investing tip: A single deli in rural New Jersey is not, in fact, worth $100 million. Which explains the fraud charges.
  • Speaking of bad investments, remember how growing hemp was going to make farmers rich? Yeah, not so much.
  • Since I post a lot of Peter Zeihan videos, I thought it only fair that I post this critique of Zeihan by Yaron Brook. He opines that, while Zeihan has important things to say about geography and demographics, he ignores the central role of ideas in shaping the world.
  • NFT trading volume has collapsed 97% since the January peak. I need an NFT of Nelson saying “Ha ha!”
  • Pro tip: Don’t leave your illegally modified automatic weapons in your Uber. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Skillz:

  • Zuckerbusted

    September 29th, 2022

    How it started:

    A vote-generating group funded in part by Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg dumped money in eight swing states in 2020, virtually all to counties that picked President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump in last year’s election, according to a congressional critic.

    New York Rep. Claudia Tenney, co-chairwoman of the House Election Integrity Caucus, today released new details of her inquiry into spending by the Zuckerberg-backed Center for Tech and Civic Life showing spending of $144 million — $130 million to Democratic counties and $14 million to GOP counties.

    How it’s going:

    As advertising revenue growth stalls, Meta Platforms Inc., the owner of Facebook and Instagram, told employees that it plans to implement a hiring freeze and restructure employee teams in the latest effort to trim costs, reported Bloomberg.

    A person in attendance during a company Q&A session said CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced the hiring freeze as this is the latest evidence advertising revenue growth for the social media giant is slowing. There’s also the concern about waning activity among users.

    “For the first 18 years of the company, we basically grew quickly basically every year, and then more recently our revenue has been flat to slightly down for the first time,” Zuckerberg told staff Thursday.

    “I had hoped the economy would have more clearly stabilized by now, but from what we’re seeing it doesn’t yet seem like it has, so we want to plan somewhat conservatively,” he added.

    Last week, Meta began quietly cutting staff by reorganizing departments while giving ‘reorganized’ employees the ability to apply for other roles within the company, according to WSJ.

    Facebook is a garbage app that people hate but still use because lots of their friends and relatives also hate it but still use it. The interface gets worse and more user-hostile year after year. (Hint: To see most recent posts in your timeline, something they’ve taken away from the main menu because they hate users and want to shove ads down your throat, go to https://www.facebook.com/?sk=h_chr.) Facebook has done as much as any social platform to drive Americans apart.

    Not to mention the fact that just about everyone agrees that the “Metaverse” Zucker is creating is a giant festering pile of garbage.

    That Facebook profits are declining because the administration of the senile president he helped install has driven the economy into a ditch doesn’t balance out the harm he’s done. But it’s a start.

    Bonus: This always cracks me up:

    Will Dollar-Pound Parity Unleash Weirdness?

    September 28th, 2022

    A variety of maladies (global inflation, soaring energy costs due to the Russo-Ukrainian War, and post-Brexit trade wrangles, among others) has the English pound approaching parity with the U.S dollar.

    Can the pound reach parity versus the dollar? It’s now a one-in-four chance when it comes to options pricing.

    The UK currency is heading for its biggest daily loss since early May after Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng outlined the government’s plans to stimulate the economy with tax cuts and spending. The simultaneous sharp sell off in Gilts [historical term for UK government bonds – LP] suggests that tackling inflation will be a very hard task for UK authorities and that the currency market sees no easy way out for the Bank of England.

    To attract foreign investors, a weaker pound may be the answer and that is what FX traders are betting on.

    Cable fell as much as 2.1% to touch $1.1021, the lowest since March 1985, and was at $1.1036 as of 12:38pm in London. Risk reversals, a barometer of market positioning and sentiment, show that traders see the greatest downside risks for the pound over the medium term in two years.

    According to Bloomberg’s options pricing model, the pound holds a 26% chance of touching parity versus the greenback in the next six months. That compares to a reading of 14% Thursday.

    I think the real odds are probably higher than that.

    Dollar-pound parity is something that’s never happened, with the nearest it came to some 1.05 dollars to the pound in the mid-1980s. But there’s always a first time for everything, and with the Bank of England doing more quantitative easing and the UK government going on a spending spree during soaring inflation while the Fed ratchets up interest rates, now is as good a time as any.

    Besides making imports from the UK less expensive, what effects will dollar-pound parity have on the financial world? Hard to say for sure, but my prediction is: Weird things.

    There are a variety of reasons for this, starting with the fact that currency trading is itself a weird thing. You may think “American financial houses buy pounds to purchase English goods, while UK financial houses buy dollars to purchase American goods,” but there’s a whole ecology of counter-party trades, hedging strategies, currency reserve requirements, portfolio balancing, and a host of other considerations.

    Here’s a brief video that cover some of the basics for how brokerages handle FX trading:

    That’s a fairly streamlined view, as it doesn’t cover how liquidity pools are set up, different hedging strategies, etc.

    There are even traders who specialize in just trading different duration T-Bills, selling the eight-week-out and buying the four-week-out (or vice versa) for esoteric arbitrage reasons.

    None of that will change if the market hits dollar-pound parity. So where’s the danger? That comes from the possible non-linear effects of the market doing something that a lot of algorithmic instrument designers never considered a possibility.

    For a simple example, let’s talk about the swaps cases. To summarize a whole lot of very complex cases, a whole bunch of local UK governments entered into interest rate swap agreements. Interest rate swap agreements are a legitimate hedging strategy to minimize exposure to interest rate swings, but a few municipalities saw it as a license to print money. To quote Wikipedia, the source of all vaguely accurate knowledge:

    The position of Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council was quite different from most of the other local authorities. From about 1985 onwards Hammersmith had entered into interest rate swap transactions on an extremely large scale. At one stage it was calculated that Hammersmith was a counterparty to 0.5% of the global trade in swaps, and 10% of the sterling denominated trade. Moreover, quite exceptionally, all of Hammersmith’s positions in the swap market were betting on a fall in interest rates. Most large participants in the swap market have their exposure balanced by taking positions on both sides and across multiple currencies, but Hammersmith was essentially repeatedly entering into one-way bets that sterling interest rates would fall; a bet that they would end up losing spectacularly when interest rates climbed from around 8 per cent to 15 per cent in the space of ten months.

    This was, to put it in technical terms, “a really fucking stupid thing to do.” The swaps cases were unwound with great expense and difficulty, and various English banks ended up taking a bath (which you know they must have regarded as some sort of diabolical violation of the natural order) after courts determined that the authorities in question didn’t have the authority under English law to enter into such agreements.

    The possibility that interests rates can rise should be an obvious one. But the idea that the pound might be worth less than the dollar is one that people have probably thought about a good deal less, since it hasn’t happened ever. It’s quite possible it hasn’t been contemplated in some percentage of the trillions in derivatives markets and hedging instruments around the world.

    For many financial systems, this is going to be an untested use case. Some systems may work just fine, others may break down, and still others may experience race conditions or cascading failures; think of the flash crash of 2010, or the 1987 Black Monday crash. Somewhere, somehow, something is likely to go off the rails.

    Hopefully, whatever does blow up won’t be big enough to take down the entire market, or at least not for long. Hopefully it won’t uncover massive problems like the 2008 subprime meltdown uncovered, and there won’t be a firm of systemic importance like AIG was there.

    Hopefully.

    Did I Get a DDos Attack From Russia?

    September 27th, 2022

    At some point during yesterday’s diagnosis of my ongoing technical difficulties, the BlueHost technician asked if 185.122.204.37 was my IP, because there were something like 30,000+ hits from it that day. I verified it wasn’t mine, and that it wasn’t Instapundit (which had linked me that day), and did a reverse DNS lookup, which brought up the following:

    IP Location: 185.122.204.37

    185.122.204.37 appears to be located in Moscow, Russia and allocated to Chang Way Technologies Co. Limited. Autonomous System Number (ASN) code for 185.122.204.37 is AS57523. IP Address local time zone is Europe/Moscow (+0300). PTR record is set to 185.122.204.37.

    That’s a very curious site to be sending me traffic, since I’m seeing none of it in my stats counter. Could I be receiving a low-grade DoS attack due to my criticisms of Putin’s war in Ukraine, or even my coverage of China’s slow-motion economic collapse, given the Chinese-sounding company? Possibly, though given BlueHost’s history, there are certainly far more prosaic explanations for my ongoing difficulties.

    Also, speaking of Internet bogusity, if you search for “Battleswarm” and some topic I’ve covered (say, “Beto”), the top links are not from my blog, but from some BS “https://jawabansmk.my.id” domain that’s scraping my content and then doing all sorts of clickjacking redirect bullshit. This may be entirely unrelated to the slowness issues and the Russian/Chinese IP above, but if you would, do a Google search “BattleSwarm” and something I’ve covered, and if that site comes up, click on those three dots next to the results that send feedback to Google to remove that result. Something like: “This is not battleswarmblog.com, this is a clickjacking malware site scraping the content of battleswarmblog.com. Please delete this domain from your listings.”

    Also, normally I like everything to go to my posts, but given the recent difficulties, please feel free to reprint this entire message when linking, so regular readers will know what’s up.

    As for a tech update on the ongoing problems, my dashboard actions are still dog slow, but the issue has been escalated.

    Technical Difficulties Again

    September 26th, 2022

    More fun with Blue Host technical support. Things are dog slow, like five minutes to bring up an edit window.

    More tomorrow.