And here’s your final Texas Senate Race update for 2012! I’ve been covering this race since Kay Bailey Hutchison decided not to run again on January 13, 2011.
I expect Ted Cruz to beat Paul Sadler handily (and here’s my endorsement of Cruz). Later today I hope to have a prediction up on just how well I expect him to do.
Obviously Democratic 14th Congressional District candidate (and former congressman) Nick Lampson really doesn’t like being asked how often he voted with Nancy Pelosi in the middle of his lecture on bipartisanship.
I talked about the CD14 race between Lampson and Randy Weber earlier this week.
(Hat tip: David Bellow)
Romney draws 30,000 at single rally in Ohio.
(Pic via Brennan Hall (@bren_nan) on Twitter)
Meanwhile, Obama is drawing crowds in Ohio between 2,800 and 4,000. That’s a good crowd…for a Whitesnake concert. It’s pretty piss poor for the President of the United States of America. I guess it’s hard to draw a crowd when you already have the stink of failure on you.
(I would like to apologize in advance to any Whitesnake fans offended by crowd size comparisons to Obama. If you believe limited government, the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy welcomes you whether you’re a hair metal fan, a brony, a hipster, a juggalo, or even a furry (I thought it best not to link anything for that one), as long as you’re voting against Obama!)
I just got my fourth direct mailer supporting Jeff Rose, Scott Field, David Puryear, and Bob Pemberton for the Third Court of Appeals.
The Third Court of Appeals covers a large swath of central Texas, stretching from Fayette up to Sterling county:
I don’t ever recall so much obvious money and effort being put into a down ballot judicial race before.
The most important race is Field’s attempt to unset the very liberal Diane Henson. Speaking of Field, this is what was on the back of the card he handed me at last week’s Ted Cruz/Tony Dale event:
I think that’s pretty much all you can ask for in a judicial philosophy.
Six days to the election, and I’ve spent most of the night handing out candy. Six days until we choose to follow the successful Texas Red State path of low taxes and limited government, or the failing Blue State California path of bankruptcy and bigger government.
I was going to have an insightful, data-filed post on the Texas 23rd Congressional district race, but then I realized that the Los Angeles Times data I was relying on flipped at least one bit of information (NRA-ILA is doing independent expenditures against Pete Gallego, not against Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco), which means I can’t trust the rest. Super executive summary: Canseco has a huge cash on-hand advantage, $785,623 to $23,250, but assuming the other LA Times numbers are right, the independent expenditure race is a lot closer to even.
Now on to a LinkSwarm a week before the election:
When I looked over the new redistricting numbers, the Texas U.S. Congressional seat that leapt out at me as the most competitive was Rep Francisco “Quico” Canseco’s CD23, a swing seat which got minimal Republican reinforcement during redistricting. But right now I’m feeling better about that one. (Hopefully more on that topic in the next day or two.)
Right now the seat that worries me most is CD 14, Ron Paul’s old seat, where the Democrats are making a hard run to snag an upset in what looks to be a very down year for them both statewide and nationally.
Going off of Obama’s 2008 vote, the district got 9% less Republican in redistricting. The old 14th went 66% for McCain, the new one only 57%. That’s still a considerable advantage, but not necessarily an insurmountable one.
Moreover, in Nicholas Valentino “Nick” Lampson of Beaumont, the Democratic party has actually found a reasonably popular local politician with qualifying experience in Congress (including one term in Tom DeLay’s old seat). National Democrats have had this seat painted as a takeover target all year. Lampson’s FEC report includes a number of Texas lawyers and some out-of-state juice, including ACTBLUE, the Professional Airways Specialists PAC, and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Campaign Assistance Fund. (And who knows how much soft money will be spent on behalf of Lampson by outside groups this cycle?) The Lampson campaign was also one of two TX CD campaigns that flew in Bill Clinton for a campaign appearance. An internal Lampson poll released in August showed a very close race (usual internal poll caveats apply).
The Republican nominee, Randy Weber, is a two-term State Rep. Unlike Lampson, Weber had a crowded primary and a runoff to contend with, which ate up significant funds.
That Roll Call piece says that Lampson has $422,000 in cash on hand, while Weber only had $55,000. However, looking at the actual FEC numbers, updated in October 17 filings, it doesn’t seem quite so bad, with Lampson having $151,218 cash on hand compared to Weber’s $83,617.
Weber has serious (if largely expected) Republican endorsements, including Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Greg Abbott and Nolan Ryan. Ted Cruz had a joint campaign appearance with Weber today.
If you’re looking for a Texas race where your last minute donation can have the most effect, the Randy Weber campaign is a good choice.
“We few, we happy few, we band of brothers
For he today that stands down with me
on Crispian’s day shall be my brother”
— King Obama V, October 24, 1415, the day before the English surrender at Agincourt
“Come and take it. No, really, come and take this cannon off our hands. It’s just cluttering up the place. We’ll just stand down while you haul it away.”
— Colonel John Henry Obama, commander of Texas forces at Gonzales, before handing over the town’s cannon to Francisco de Castaneda, October 2, 1835, ending the Texas Rebellion
TO PRESIDENT OBAMA STOP
FROM FT SUMTER STOP
UNDER BOMBARDMENT BY REBELS STOP
REQUEST PERMISSION TO COUNTERATTACK STOP
TO FT SUMTER STOP
FROM PRESIDENT OBAMA STOP
STAND DOWN STOP
STRIKE COLORS STOP
SURRENDER FORT STOP
— Telegram exchange, April 12, 1861, a month before the United States government recognized the Confederate States of America.
General George S. Patton, Commander, U.S. 3rd Army: Request permission to relieve 101st Airborne surrounded by Germans at Bastogne.
General Dwight D. Obama, Supreme Commander, Allied Forces in Europe: Attack two German armored divisions? That’s just nuts! Stand down.
— Field message exchange December 23, 1944, three weeks before the Roosevelt-Hitler Peace Treaty was signed
Gen. Douglas MacArthur: Pusan perimeter now stable. Request permission to launch Inchon landing under Operation Chromite.
President Harry Obama: There’s no way we can defeat so many red Chinese. Stand down, withdraw from Pusan, and evacuate all U.S. personnel from the Korean peninsula.
— Message exchange, September 8, 1950
Gen. William F. Garrison, Commander UNOSOM II: Two UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters have crashed in central Mogadishu following raid on Aidid compound. Request permission to send rescue force in to retrieve survivors.
President William Jefferson Obama: Stand down. Our troops could never hope to survive such a hostile urban combat environment. We’ll just have to leave those men behind.
— Message exchange, October 3, 1994, three days before the American withdrawal from Somalia
If you put this in a novel, the editor would reject it for the symbolism being too heavy-handed.
Estelle Carson, the Denver woman named the “Jefferson County Democrat of the Year,” has been convicted of stealing money from an elderly woman with physical and mental disabilities.
“A Jefferson County jury on Thursday convicted Carson of identity theft and theft from an at-risk person, both felonies, according to Pam Russell, spokeswoman for the district attorney. Carson, 67, is scheduled to be sentenced in December.”
And what was so vitally important that Carson had to steal money from the handicapped?
“Carson, who met the victim last year, wrote three checks from the woman’s account, including one to pay for Carson’s cable, Internet and phone when they were about to be canceled.”
On Carson’s Facebook page, she says that “My president needs four more years.” [Insert your own Obama stealing people’s futures metaphor here.]
A picture of the convicted felon from that page. Note the tie-dye t-shirt.
“C’mon people now/Smile on your brother/Everybody get together/Try to rob one another right now.”
Also from that page (a screen cap in case she takes it down):
Also from her Facebook page: “I am out walking and knocking for GOTV from now until November 6.”
Maybe. The article doesn’t say whether the judge let her out on bail before her sentencing.
(Hat tip: Gateway Pundit.)