Today Is Primary Election Day In Texas! Go Vote!

March 5th, 2024

Today is primary day! Find your voter registration card and go vote!

Here are some Texas primary day links:

  • Texas State House Republican Primary Candidates
  • Gun Owners of America issue Texas endorsements.
  • Election news roundup For February 28
  • Election news roundup for March 4.
  • Williamson County Voting Locations.
  • Travis County voting locations.
  • The Texan’s results page, for when results start coming in this evening.
  • Update: Voting for my suburban Wilco district seamed pretty heavy; the parking lot at the local rec center was full and there was a short line to vote, despite my getting there around 3:45 PM. If you haven’t voted already, you might want to head out a little early…

    Election News Roundup For March 4, 2024

    March 4th, 2024

    Tomorrow is primary day for Texas and the rest of Super Tuesday states, so now would be a good time to locate your voter registration card. Here’s a roundup of election news (Texas and otherwise).

  • The Supreme Court unanimously restores Donald Trump to the Colorado ballot.

    The Supreme Court ruled unanimously Monday to overturn the Colorado supreme court decision removing Trump from the state primary ballot, just one day before voters in the Centennial State and 14 others go to the polls to select their Republican nominee.

    The unanimous ruling holds that only Congress has the authority to restrict ballot access based on a candidate’s alleged violation of Section three of the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, which prohibits individuals who have engaged in an insurrection from holding federal office.

    “This case raises the question whether the States, in addition to Congress, may also enforce Section 3. We conclude that States may disqualify persons holding or attempting to hold state office. But States have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 with respect to federal offices, especially the Presidency,” the Supreme Court ruling asserts.

    “For the reasons given, responsibility for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates rests with Congress and not the States. The judgment of the Colorado Supreme Court therefore cannot stand.”

  • A look at Janis Holt’s primary challenge against incumbent Ernest Bailes for Texas House District 18.

    A controversial residential development, a vote to kill school choice, and the impeachment of the Texas attorney general have all drawn big endorsements for a well-funded challenge to incumbent state Rep. Ernest Bailes (R-Shepherd) in an East Texas state House district just north of Houston.

    Longtime Republican activist and trustee for the Silsbee Independent School District, Janis Holt ran unsuccessfully against Bailes in 2022. But this year the wind seems to be at her back, as she has drawn endorsements from former President Donald Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

    “As a State Representative, Janis will help us Secure the Border, Champion Parental Rights, Protect the Second Amendment, and Stand Up to the Woke Mob destroying our Country,” Trump wrote on social media. “Janis Holt has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”

    Snip.

    As with a slew of other Republican primary contests around the state, the debate over school choice is a central issue in the House District (HD) 18 race. Bailes was one of 21 Republicans who voted to strip education savings accounts (ESA) from an education omnibus bill during last year’s fourth special session, drawing the ire of Abbott, who had vowed to bring some form of school choice to the state during the 88th Legislature.

    Bailes has defended his vote as an effort to “stop a school voucher scam,” and claimed that illegal immigrants would have been eligible for the state ESAs. Saying that he had fought tirelessly to “increase border security,” Bailes added that he was committed to voting for the interests of “my friends and neighbors in San Jacinto, Hardin, Liberty, and East Montgomery Counties.”

    While the vote against ESAs contributed to Abbott’s and Cruz’s decision to back Holt, Bailes has also been tied to the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County, especially for his role in crafting the Municipal Management District and Municipal Utility District for the development in 2017.

    Accused of providing a haven for illegal immigrants, Colony Ridge made headlines last year after revelations surfaced that developers Trey and John Harris targeted advertisements for the development under the name Terrenos Houston and offered lots for sale with no credit check. While the number of illegal immigrants living in the sprawling 33-acre development is unknown, Liberty County Sheriff Bobby Rader has warned that he does not have enough staff to patrol the community of nearly 50,000.

  • Speaking of Holt, her’s is one of the races a DC group has waded into.

    A political action committee named American Values First PAC registered $92,000 spent in the latest eight-day campaign finance reports. The group is registered to a Washington, D.C. PO box. Its treasurer is Dustin McIntyre, who did not offer comment when contacted by The Texan.

    The group has sent text messages and mailers into various Texas House districts, and gotten involved in a handful of statewide races. Its list of registered support and opposition is a curious one, with no discernible trend.

    Opposed

    • Jill Dutton – House District (HD) 2
    • Janis Holt – HD 18
    • State Rep. Reggie Smith (R-Sherman) – HD 62
    • State Rep. Steve Allison (R-San Antonio) – HD 121
    • Bianca Gracia – HD 128

    Supportive

    • Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick
    • Justice John Devine — Texas Supreme Court
    • State Rep. Ernest Bailes (R-Shepherd) – HD 18
    • David Schenck – Court of Criminal Appeals, Presiding Judge
    • Gina Parker – Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 7
    • Lee Finley – Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 8
    • Eight Liberty County local races

    HD 18 encompasses Liberty County, which, connected to the various local races, is the only visible connection between them.

    Of the expenditures, most of the money went to direct mail and text messaging services from The Stoneridge Group, a Georgia-based political firm.

    The group’s $125,000 raised came from only two donations: $25,000 from the Affordable Energy Fund (AEF) PAC, also treasured by McIntyre, and $100,000 from the Revitalization Project. Both are based in Virginia.

    The AEF PAC raised and spent more than $1 million in the 2022 cycle, and almost every one of the expenditures went to Majority Strategies, a national direct mail firm based in Florida.

    Seems a little swampy, but Schenck, Parker, and Finley were also endorsed by Gun Owners of America.

  • Michael Quinn Sullivan says that no matter what happens Tuesday, Dade Phelan is out of time.

    Whatever happens on Tuesday, Dade Phelan’s speakership is over. Everyone knows it.

    In multiple conversations with Republican lawmakers, including those Phelan considers to be loyalists, every single one believes his speakership is not only a distraction but a detriment. Now, do not read this as some sudden conversion of “RINOs” to stalwart conservative champions.

    The concerns they raise about Phelan are pragmatic.

    Most importantly, they see Phelan as a symptom of the problem they describe as “Dennis Bonnen.” When the disgraced former House Speaker was forced to resign from office in 2019, he and his cronies installed Phelan as their patsy. His performance has reflected that reality. The Democrat committee chairs stayed in place, and conservative priorities were stalled.

    Old boss, meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

    The problem is that the Bonnen-Phelan clan has been playing House members against the Senate and the governor as the former speaker builds up his lobby practice.

    Few of the House members were particularly bothered by Phelan’s apparent intoxication at the dais late in the session. But they don’t like the stone-sober blame he has cast on them for the death of the comprehensive border security bill… a death Phelan oversaw with parliamentary zeal.

    Why kill it at all? Because the Bonnen-Phelan partnership requires the support of Democrats. It is why Bonnen-Phelan orchestrated the 2021 reduction in election crimes from felonies to misdemeanors. When the pressure to undo that damage in 2023 became too much to bear, Bonnen-Phelan gave the Democrats the impeachment of Ken Paxton and the death of House Bill 20.

    To a man and woman, House members have noted Phelan’s internal constitution is such that should he win the primary and return in 2025 as speaker, he will be on a scorched-earth mission against the priorities of Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.

    They are, bluntly, tired of it.

    Thanks to Bonnen-Phelan, a significant number of members have had to deal with expensive primaries based on those fights. Sure, most will win… but in working to gain re-election, they lose face in their communities in a way not even a victory can makeover.

    But some will not win. And some, like Glenn Rogers of Graford, have engaged in a very public (and very embarrassing) emotional and mental breakdown in confronting their primary challenges.

    That’s not the bargain a speaker—or a speaker coalition—makes with the rank-and-file members. Internally, the number one job of any Speaker of the Texas House is to protect the members, especially the members of the speaker’s party. Not a single Republican feels protected. They are exposed, like the proverbial king in the invisible cloak.

    Sullivan also says that “Dustin Burrows of Lubbock and Cody Harris of Palestine are being positioned to take up the gavel on behalf of the Bonnen-Phelan machine in 2025.”

  • “Texas Early Voting Data Shows GOP Turnout More Than Double Democratic. Republican early vote turnout is higher than 2020 but Democratic turnout is 40 percent below four years ago.”
  • So Nikki Haley finally won a primary…for Washington D.C. Way to convince people you’re not a swamp creature, Nikki!
  • Haley also says that she’s no longer bound by her pledge to support the Republican nominee. Swamp creatures gonna swamp creature. I stole this from Reddit:

  • China’s Roving Death Vans

    March 3rd, 2024

    The more we find out about Communist China, the more there is to loath, despite all the globalist happy talk about a “flat” world where we could export manufacturing to China for lower costs without any negative consequence. Today’s example: A government propaganda video bragging about their mobile death vans.

  • “This is one of those times where I wish genuinely that I hadn’t found something. I just discovered something absolutely horrid.”
  • “These cars just show up and execute you.”
  • They used to have public executions in arenas. They haven’t done away with that (or shooting you on the side of the road and burying you in a ditch), but the death vans are considered more “efficient.”
  • “How [the government video] is framed, it’s like how would you be executed, this is going to happen to you. You’re supposed to enter this POV, this is from your perspective, how are you going to be taken out by the government?”
  • They make a point of how much more humane lethal injection is. “Look how nice we are!”
  • They talk about how much cheaper a mobile execution van is than a fixed execution center. “This is really good! It’s a cost-saving method when we need to go murder all those people!”
  • “China, even per capita, executes more people every year than every single country combined. And that’s just the people that they count…every year, China is executing thousands and thousands of people.”
  • One estimate has 8,000 people per year executed in China. (And that’s just the ones we have some evidence for. “Some people just get disappeared.”) By contrast, there were 18 death row inmates executed in the U.S. in 2022.
  • “It’s really grim and also very dystopian, the fact that when you’re strapped down and laying there, you’re looking up at the Communist Party of China’s insignia and right above that is a security camera.”
  • Remember: China has nothing like our legal system or the rule of law. They have a 99.9% conviction rate.
  • There’s a long list of crimes you can receive the death penalty for, including owning a gun or using a VPN. “If somebody wants you gone, you could get the death penalty for really anything.”
  • And the government video talks about the process of the lethal injection shutting down your organs.
  • Matthew Tye, the covering the video, lived in China for a decade. This is “how human life is treated on a political level in China…I think this gives you a perspective on how hard Chinese citizens have it.”

    Bill Ackerman Shocked To Find Antisemitism On The Left

    March 2nd, 2024

    Some people figure things out slower than others. Such is the case with formerly lefty billionaire hedge-fund manager Bill Ackerman, who is simply shocked to find out that Harvard has unquestionably embraced antisemitism and diversity in the name of DEI.

    Here’s Dave Rubin excerpting Ackerman’s interview with Lex Friedman:

  • “The governance structure [of Harvard] is a disaster.”
  • “October 7th is the event that woke me up. Thirty student organizations came out with a public letter on October 8th, literally the morning after, this letter was created, and said Israel is solely responsible for Hamas’s violent acts.”
  • “Again, Israel had not even mounted a defense at this point, and there were still terrorists running around in the southern part of Israel.”
  • “And I’m, like, what is going on, you know? WTF, right? And that’s when I went up on campus and I started talking to the faculty, and that’s where I started hearing about ‘Actually, Bill, it’s it’s this DEI ideology.'”
  • “They started talking to me about this oppressor/oppressed framework, which is effectively taught at on campus, and represents the backdrop for many of the courses that are offered.”
  • “You know, I’m a pretty aware person, but I was completely unaware.” If you were “completely unaware,” then no, you’re not a “pretty aware person.” The malignancy of social justice has been know for at least a decade, and the hard left’s love for Muslim terrorists manifested itself at least as far back as the 1980s, when campus lefties loved the PLO almost as much as the commie Sandinistas. My guess is that by “a pretty aware person” you mean “you read the New York Times and watched a nightly MSM news broadcast, and stayed safely inside your real estate/hedge fund bubble, and never realized just how much your news sources were lying to you.” And all those PLO- and Sandinista-loving lefties now have their hands on control levers of the Democratic Party.
  • “They’re like ‘Look, Israel is deemed an oppressor and the Palestinians are deemed the oppressed, and you take the side of the the oppressed. And any acts of the oppressed to dislodge the oppressor, regardless of how vile or barbaric, are OK.”
  • “This is a super dangerous ideology.”
  • “DEI comes out of a kind of a Marxist, socialist backdrop way to look at the world.”
  • “Unfortunately it’s advancing racism as opposed to fighting it.”
  • As Dave Rubin notes:

    Yes, his conversion is welcome, but again, conservatives (and even just anyone paying attention) has know what poison DEI/Critical Race Theory/Social Justice is for a decade. The #BlackLivesMatter/#Antifa riots didn’t make him think something just might be wrong with victimhood identity politics?

    Bill Ackerman needs to go back and look at what else the left-leaning MSM has lied to him, about (including inflation, China, crime statistics, the Russian collusion hoax and and Donald Trump).

    He has a lot of reading to do…

    LinkSwarm For March 1, 2024

    March 1st, 2024

    Congratulations on surviving the first 1/6th of 2024! The Big Guy is exactly who we knew he was all along, Houston police screw up, some big crime stories, Wayne LaPierre is found guilty, and the world’s saddest Oompa Loompa. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • In the least surprising news ever, Hunter Biden admits that Joe Biden is “The Big Guy.”

    “Remember when Joe Biden told the American people that his son didn’t make money in China?” asked Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) in a video posted to X. ““Well, not only did he lie about his son Hunter making money in China, but it also turns out that $40,000 in laundered China money landed in Joe Biden’s bank account in the form of a personal check.”

  • Indeed, the Bidens created no less than 20 shell companies to launder money through.
  • This seems like it should be a much, much bigger story: “Court Concludes Congressional Proxy Voting Rule Is Unconstitutional.”

    Today, a U.S. District Court issued its final judgment in Texas v. Garland, which was a challenge to the U.S. House’s proxy voting rule under the Quorum Clause of the Constitution. In its final judgment, the Court concluded that U.S. House members must be physically present for their vote to comply with the Constitution’s Quorum Clause. Attorneys from the Texas Public Policy Foundation argued the merits at trial in January of this year.

    The lawsuit was originally filed with the State of Texas in response to Congress’ unlawful passage of the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill in December 2022. The U.S. Constitution requires a quorum, or a majority, of House members to be physically present for the U.S. House of Representatives to conduct business. As less than half of the members were present when the legislation was passed, with the rest voting by proxy, this legislation never should have passed, and the president should not have signed it.

    “This meticulous, 120-page opinion was written after a full trial on the merits,” said TPPF senior attorney Matt Miller. “The Court correctly concluded that the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2023 violated the Quorum Clause of the U.S. Constitution because a majority of House members was not physically present when the $1.7 trillion spending bill was passed. Proxy voting is unconstitutional.”

    This basically says that every bit of that $1.7 trillion spending was unconstitutional, along with any laws, etc. passed in that omnibus. Just how do you back out all that money that’s been spent, assuming this is upheld?

  • Texas law to deport illegal aliens blocked by federal judge.
  • Record meth bust in Eagle Pass. “The U.S. Customs and Border Protections (CBP) have seized six and a half tons of methamphetamine, over 13,000 pounds, at the Eagle Pass Port of Entry, making it the largest ever seizure in a single enforcement action.”

  • Mitch McConnell Announces He Will Step Down as Senate Republican Leader in November.

    Mitch McConnell announced on Wednesday that he will step down as the Senate Republican leader in November, ending his tenure as the longest-serving Senate leader in history.

    “This will be my last term as Republican Leader of the Senate,” the 82-year-old veteran of the chamber said to his colleagues on the Senate floor. “I’m not going anywhere… It’s time for the next generation of leadership.”

    He’ll leave the senate when his term ends in 2027. You can condemn him as the ultimate swamp creature, or praise him for his effectiveness at things like getting Trump’s Supreme Court picks confirmed. It’s two sides of the same coin. I’m not sure he was as effective as Trent Lott or Howard Baker.

  • The Houston Police Department announced that over 4,000 sexual assault cases will be closed without investigation.

    Houston Police Department Chief Troy Finner called it a “dark day” at a press conference for the Houston Police Department, announcing that 4,107 adult sexual assault cases were wrongly closed without investigation.

    A case management code “suspended for lack of personnel” was used, which led to closing the cases without actually investigating them.

    Finner said he was first made aware the code even existed in 2021 and instructed HPD’s special victims division to stop using the code; however, he found out on February 7, 2024 that it continued. HPD first began using the code in 2016.

    He said he immediately ordered a review of all cases suspended using this code dating back to 2016, which will take at least 30 days to complete. While the number of cases they have today is 4,017, he says it is “fluid and subject to change.”

    2016 just happens to be the year that Art Acevedo was named HPD police chief

  • 60 Minutes gets to enjoy some of that vibrant Muslim diversity in Sweden to the sides of their faces.

    (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)

  • Biden robocalls that “threatened democracy” came from Democrats.
  • “After five days of deliberations, a jury in New York on Friday held the National Rifle Association liable for financial mismanagement and found that Wayne LaPierre, the group’s former CEO, corruptly ran the nation’s most prominent gun rights group. The jury determined that LaPierre’s violation of his duties cost the NRA $5,400,000, though he already repaid roughly $1.5 million to the organization.” Here’s the thing: While they prosecution was unquestionably politically motivated, LaPierre did run a crooked ship. In the long run, forcing Wayne and his corrupt cronies from office has done the NRA a huge favor.
  • Argentine President Javier Milei just ended his country’s budget deficit in nine weeks. If Trump and the Republicans manage to control both houses of congress next year, there’s no reason they can’t balance the budget…assuming they have the will.
  • Google company Alphabet just lost $70 billion in market value due to its AI shenanigans.

  • “Austin Fire Department Chaplain Dismissed for Comments on Transgender Athletes Sues for Free Speech Violation. A chaplain for the Austin Fire Department was dismissed from his position after expressing beliefs on his personal blog about protecting women’s sports.”

    After a volunteer chaplain of the Austin Fire Department (AFD) was fired for posting on his personal blog that men and women are biologically different and should not compete against each other in sports, a lawsuit was filed in an effort to protect his rights to free speech and religious freedom.

    The Alliance Defending Freedom said in a press release that it filed a motion Tuesday on behalf of Dr. Andrew Fox, who served in a voluntary capacity as chaplain for AFD before he was dismissed in 2021.

    Unlike APD, AFD public and union leadership has been infected by social justice. Dr. Fox appears to have a very strong case on viewpoint discrimination grounds.

  • White TV host tries to race-bait Jerry Seinfeld for hosting “mostly” white male comedians on his show. It doesn’t go well for him.
  • “Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed a bipartisan bill into law authorizing the release of grand jury transcripts from an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. The new legislation, signed by the Florida governor on Thursday, will allow a public release of the jury’s transcripts from the 2006 probe into Epstein’s abuse of underage girls. The new measure goes into effect July 1.”
  • “Texas Judge Temporarily Blocks Federal Survey of Cryptocurrency Miners’ Electricity Use.” I’m not particularly a fan of cryptocurrency, but it’s not the federal government’s duty to stick its nose into how you use the electricity you’re paying for.
  • Weird Austin crime story: “Prominent local businessman arrested in Austin, accused of arson.”

    A prominent Austin businessman and founder of Continental Automotive Group, or CAG, was arrested Thursday on charges of Felony Arson and a State Jail Felony offense of Burglary.

    Dorsey Bryan Hardeman, 75, is accused of starting a fire at a downtown Austin building on Sunday, according to an arrest affidavit.

    According to Travis County court records, Trey Collins with the Minton, Bassett, Flores & Carsey firm has been retained as the attorney representing Hardeman. Sam Bassett told KXAN the office has just begun its work and “it is premature to comment. However, we will provide Mr. Hardeman an appropriate and vigorous defense.”

    The affidavit said the Austin Fire Department responded to a building fire at the former Mellow Johnny’s Bike Shop on 400 Nueces St. on Feb. 25.

    Once the fire was contained, fire investigators determined the incident to be incendiary and found metal shavings on the ground below the door suggesting the door lock had been drilled out, records state.

    The affidavit states fire investigators watched video surveillance from the building, which showed an older man entering the building with a red container consistent with a plastic gas tank.

    Multiple cameras inside the building show a man pouring liquid from the red container and dropping multiple matches on the ground, the affidavit said.

    Records show the man arrived at the location in a white 4-door Mercedez SUV.

    Investigators interviewed the owner of Mellow Johnny’s Bike Shop who told AFD Hardeman was the owner of the property next door and had previously asked about purchasing the property at 400 Nueces St.

    This is not what people refer to as “the perfect crime.” (Hat tip: Dwight.)

  • Remember Morgan Spurlock’s Supersize Me? It turns out McDonalds didn’t destroy his liver, a decade of alcoholism did.
  • Behold the UK’s saddest Willy Wonka fest, complete with Oompa Loompa meth lab. (Hat Tip: Dwight.) (More from The Critical Drinker.)
  • Either this guy is an amazing close-up magician, or amazing at post-production digital effects.
  • “New species skeleton panda sea squirt discovered in Japan.” Like many things from Japan, it’s both cute and horrifying.
  • Why does Canada feel the need to make mine-sweeping funds to Ukraine “gender inclusive?”
  • “Biden Brags He Could Let Migrants Shoot Someone On Fifth Avenue And Not Lose Any Votes.”
  • “HAL Refuses To Open Pod Bay Doors After Determining Dave Is A White Male.”
  • Good dog!

  • Hit the tip jar if you’re so inclined.





    Ukraine Inflicts Unsustainable Losses On Russian Aviation

    February 29th, 2024

    Something interesting is unfolding in the skies over Ukraine’s south-central front. Over the last ten days, Ukraine has managed to shoot down no less than 12 Russian military aircraft:

    First the shootdown list:

  • “17th of February: Two Su-34s and a Su-35.”
  • “18th of February A Su-34”
  • “19th: A Su-34 and a Su-35”
  • “21st: A Su-34.”
  • “23rd: A Su-34 and an A-50.”
  • “27th: A Su-34 and a Su-34.”
  • “And today the 29th: another Su-34.”
  • For what it’s worth, Livemap says that Ukraine shot down two Su-34s today.

    David Axe at Forbes suggests that Russia’s air arm is dangerously close to collapse.

    The Russian air force lost another Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber on Thursday, the Ukrainian air force claimed. If confirmed, the Thursday shoot-down would extend an unprecedented hot streak for Ukrainian air-defenses.

    The Ukrainian claim they’ve shot down 11 Russian planes in 11 days: eight Su-34s, two Sukhoi Su-35 fighters and a rare Beriev A-50 radar plane.

    But those 11 claimed losses are worse than they might seem for the increasingly stressed Russian air force. In theory, the air arm has plenty more planes. In practice, the service is dangerously close to collapse.

    Exactly how the Ukrainians are shooting down so many jets is unclear. It’s possible the Ukrainian air force has assigned some of its American-made Patriot missile launchers to mobile air-defense groups that move quickly in close proximity to the 600-mile front line of Russia’s two-year wider war on Ukraine, ambushing Russian jets with 90-mile-range PAC-2 missiles then swiftly relocating to avoid counterattack.

    But the distance at which the Ukrainians shot down that A-50 on Friday—120 miles or so—hints that a longer-range missile system was involved. Perhaps a Cold War-vintage S-200 that the Ukrainian air force pulled out of long-term storage.

    It also is apparent the Ukrainians have moved some of their two-dozen or so 25-mile-range NASAMS surface-to-air missile batteries closer to the front line. After all, the Russians found—and destroyed with a missile—their first NASAMS launcher near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on or before Monday.

    He also suggests Russia may be flying more sorties close to the lines to follow-up on its costly victory in Avdiivka.

    This surge in Russian sorties presents Ukrainian air-defenders with more targets. So of course they’re shooting down more Russian planes.

    It helps the Ukrainian effort that Russian pilots increasingly are blind to Ukrainian missile-launches. The Russian air force once counted on its nine or so active A-50 radar planes—organized into three, three-plane “orbits” in the south, east and north—to extend sensor coverage across Ukraine.

    In damaging one A-50 in a drone strike last year and shooting down two more A-50s this year, the Ukrainians have eliminated a third of this sensor coverage, and created blind spots where Russian pilots might struggle to spot approaching missiles.

    In any event, the consequences of the Ukrainians’ recent kills, for the Russians, are dire. The Russian air force is losing warplanes far, far faster than it can afford to lose them. Russia’s sanctions-throttled aerospace industry is struggling to build more than a couple of dozen new planes a year.

    Escalating losses, exacerbated by anemic plane-production, almost certainly are increasing the stress on the surviving planes and crews. The Russian air arm isn’t yet in an organizational death spiral. But it’s getting closer.

    The numbers tell the story. On paper, the Russian air force has acquired 140 of the twin-engine, two-seat, supersonic Su-34s. Counting this year’s unconfirmed losses, the air force has lost 31 of the Su-34s.

    But 109 Su-34s still is a lot of Su-34s, right?

    Wrong, according to Michael Bohnert, an engineer with the RAND Corporation in California. Shoot-downs represent “only a portion of total losses” of Russian fighters, Bohnert wrote back in August. “Overuse of these aircraft is also costing Russia as the war drags on.”

    “In a protracted war, where one force tries to exhaust the other, it’s the total longevity of the military force that matters,” Bohnert added. “And that’s where the VKS”—the Russian air force—“finds itself now.”

    Bohnert assumed the air force went to war two years ago with around 900 fighters and attack planes and, in the first 18 months of fighting, lost around 100 of them to Ukrainian action. The problem for the Russians—besides the losses—is that the requirement for fighter and attack sorties hasn’t decreased even as the fighter and attack inventory has decreased.

    So those 800 remaining planes are flying more frequently in order to handle taskings the Kremlin once assigned to 900 planes. And that means more wear and tear, deepening maintenance needs and a growing hunger for increasingly hard-to-find spare parts—imperatives that effectively remove airframes from the front-line force.

    Given what we know of lax Russian maintenance practices, it’s probably safe to assume that considerably less of those 100 Su-34s are mission capable than would be the case in, say, the U.S. Air Force, which have mission-ready goals of 75-80%, but frequently falls short.

    A few more weeks of disasterous losses like this and Russia will be at dire risk of having what remains of it’s air campaign collapse.

    And Ukraine still has F-16s due to enter service this year.

    Texas Election Roundup For February 28, 2024

    February 28th, 2024

    I hadn’t intended to use so much of this week talking about Texas elections, but a lot of news is dropping and the primary looms next week, so let’s tuck in:

  • Vegas bets on Dade Phelan.

    After mainly remaining on the sidelines ahead of the primary, casino companies seeking to turn Texas into a piggy bank are spending big to back the current House Speaker and his allies.

    Chief among these out-of-state interlopers is Las Vegas Sands, giving through its “Texas” Sands PAC. The largest beneficiary of Sands’ money in the latest filing period is embattled House Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont).

    The casino outfit gave $200,000 to the Speaker, his second-largest donation in the latest filing period. Another gambling behemoth, Penn Entertainment Inc., gave Phelan $20,000. The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma donated $10,000.

    Gambling special interests have long targeted Texas but have been rebuffed for decades following failed promises of the Texas Lottery. During the 2023 legislative session, the Texas House advanced gambling measures that the Texas Senate ignored.

    In this latest period, Sands gave $1.8 million to Texas politicians. This money went exclusively to members of the Texas House, with Republicans taking $1.34 million and Democrats $457,500. This is potentially a preview of a deluge of money that big gambling may spend in the lead-up to the 2025 legislative session.

    State Rep. John Kuempel (R-Seguin), a key proponent of growing the gambling footprint in Texas, received the second-highest total from Sands at $110,000. Like Phelan, Keumpel finds himself up against a field of challengers, including Alan Schoolcraft who enjoys the endorsement of Gov. Greg Abbott and heavy financial backing.

  • Speaking of Phelan, it seems that a state agency paid millions in above-market rates for real estate rental to Phelan’s company.

    Texas Republican Party Chairman Matt Rinaldi says the Texas Health and Human Services Commission (HHSC) has paid a company House Speaker Dade Phelan manages three times the market value.

    On February 16, 2023, an exclusive Texas Scorecard investigative report examined a lease between HHSC and 3105 Executive, LLC—a company Phelan and members of the Phelan family manage and direct. From December 2017 to December 2023, state taxpayers paid this company $2.3 million through HHSC. The original lease ran from January 2014 to December 2023 but has been extended to August 2029. Phelan was first elected to the Texas House in 2014 and began serving in 2015. He was elected Speaker by fellow House members in 2021.

    On February 17, Rinaldi took to social media platform X, noting that the 2023 rent HHSC paid Phelan is three times the market value.

    “This looks like a $268,000 windfall to the Speaker’s business paid for money appropriated by the House, which is a big deal,” he wrote. “My next question would be how many other income streams are there like this one?”

  • President Trump just endorsed a bunch more Texas candidates.

    Trump endorsed the following House candidates:

    • Brent Money for House District 2, a seat only recently filled by Jill Dutton in a special election
    • Joanne Shofner, who is challenging State Rep. Travis Clardy (R-Nacogdoches) for House District 11
    • Steve Toth (R–Conroe), who is the current representative for House District 15
    • Janis Holt, who is challenging State Rep. Ernest Bailes (R-Shepherd) for House District 18
    • Gary Gates (R–Richmond), who is the current representative for House District 28
    • Wes Virdell for House District 53, which is an open seat following the retirement of State Rep. Andrew Murr (R-Junction)
    • Hillary Hickland, who is challenging State Rep. Hugh Shine (R-Temple) for House District 55
    • Stormy Bradley, who is challenging State Rep. Drew Darby (R-San Angelo) for House District 72
    • Don McLaughlin for House District 80, which is an open seat following the retirement of Tracy King (D-Uvalde)
    • John Smithee (R–Amarillo), who is the current representative for House District 86
    • Caroline Fairly for House District 87, which is an open seat following the retirement of Four Price (R-Amarillo)
    • Barry Wernick, who is challenging State Rep. Morgan Meyer (R-Dallas) for House District 108

    Bailes, Darby, Shine, and Meyer all voted to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton—a close ally of Trump. Gates also voted for impeachment but later apologized and contributed $15,000 to Paxton’s campaign fund.

    Bailes, Darby, Clardy, and Shine all voted against Gov. Greg Abbott’s school choice program. Abbott has endorsed Trump’s 2024 presidential bid.

    Money, Virdell, Hickland, and Bradley have also been endorsed by Gun Owners of America.

    A consensus is forming among a broad front of Republicans (Trump, Abbott, Patrick and Paxton) on who to vote for on Tuesday, and Phalen’s pals ain’t it.

  • And Paxton is out on the campaign trail supporting challengers to the Phelan-aligned reps who voted for his impeachment.
  • State Rep. Gary VanDeaver Faces Stiff Challenge One Decade After Ousting Previous Incumbent.”

    Ten years into his career in the Texas House, state Rep. Gary VanDeaver (R-New Boston) now faces the very same challenge he mounted a decade ago — a newcomer hoping to unseat an incumbent.

    VanDeaver faces two challengers — the Gov. Greg Abbott-backed Chris Spencer and Attorney General Ken Paxton-backed Dale Huls — in his bid for a sixth term in the Legislature.

    He is one of 15 House Republicans seeking re-election who voted both for Paxton’s impeachment last May and to strip education savings accounts (ESA) from the House education omnibus bill last November, and for those he’s become a top target. Abbott and the pro-school choice groups wading into Texas House races have an eye toward flipping the seat, and Paxton is bent on exacting retribution.

    Snip.

    VanDeaver is in a dogfight, primarily against Spencer, the former chairman of the Sulphur Springs River Authority who loaned himself $300,000 at the campaign’s outset and is benefitting greatly from outside money.

    According to ad buy data provided to The Texan from Medium Buying, a national GOP placement agency, Spencer and the groups backing him have reserved $116,000 of ad space on cable and broadcast television from Monday through the election next week. That dwarfs the $12,000 spent by VanDeaver’s camp during the same period.

    Most of Spencer’s ad space was purchased either by Abbott’s campaign or the School Freedom Fund, a PAC affiliated with the national group Club for Growth.

    As of the eight-day reporting period, VanDeaver has $450,000 cash-on-hand after raising $684,000 from January 26 through February 24. During that same period, Spencer raised $257,000 and has $166,000 left on hand. Huls is far behind the other two with $16,000 raised and $7,000 remaining in the bank.

  • A brief look at Republican ballot propositions.
  • BattleSwarmBlog Endorses Christi Craddick For Railroad Commissioner

    February 27th, 2024

    I’m not one to vote for a Republican incumbent just because they’re a Republican incumbent. That, and the fact that the operations of the Texas Railroad Commission are seldom reported on and mostly opaque to me, have heretofore kept me from backing Christi Craddick’s reelection bid, especially since she has four challengers this year.

    Nor have her multiple direct mail flyers (with so few competitive races this year, she’s one of the few sending them) saying all the right things, sold me either. Nor did endorsements from the Williamson County Republican Party, or the Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC, do the trick. (I’m inclined more toward the latter, simply because it agrees with GOA endorsements.)

    So I was still looking for a sign. And lo and behold, one was given unto me.

    The Houston Chronicle endorsed her opponent James Matlock.

    Once upon a time (say 40 odd years ago), the Chronicle, much like the city it was published in, was reliably conservative and Republican. That hasn’t been true for a long time. Today they suffer from the same far left myopia that infects the rest of the MSM, and they seem to have endorsed Matlock for his regurgitation of some well-debunked Gaslands anti-fracking talking points. (Oh, they also endorsed Nikki Haley, because of course they did.)

    The fact that Craddick’s most prominent opponent is far enough off-base to be endorsed by the Houston Chronicle is enough to make me back her…

    Ukraine’s Super Tiny, Super Expensive Black Hornet Drone

    February 26th, 2024

    The Black Hornet drone that western nations have supplied Ukraine with has some very interesting tech and capabilities, and is all but invisible to visual and electronic detection. But there’s a catch.

  • “In Ukraine’s battle for Air Supremacy with Russia, a swarm of tiny black hornet drones might just give it the edge.” I wouldn’t say air supremacy, I would say it’s extending Ukraine’s lead in recon supremacy.
  • “These drones act as eyes for Ukrainian troops on the ground. And thanks to the US, UK and Norway, Ukraine now has an entire fleet of them ready to be deployed at a moment’s notice.”
  • “In July 2023, the United States announced that it would deliver $400 million in security assistance to Ukraine. Beyond the typical armored vehicles and air defense missiles, that package would also include Black Hornet drones made by Teledyne FLIR defense. A month later the UK made a similar announcement. Working with Norwegian manufacturers it would spend $9 million on these microdrones, sending them over to Ukraine for use as covert surveillance tools.”
  • “All told, Ukraine now has over 1,000 of these drones at its disposal, and they’re helping Kiev slowly turn the tide against Putin’s invading forces.” Hopefully, but I think that remains to be seen at this point.
  • “In Ukraine’s case, they’ve received shipments of the Black Hornet 3, which measures just 6.6 inches from nose to tail, and weighs only 1.16 ounces. In other words they’re tiny. So tiny, in fact, that the,drones are easy to hide among foliage and trees, making them almost imperceptible to opposing troops.”
  • “Further more, the drones are designed to be practically silent when in operation.”
  • It’s a tiny helicopter outfitted with several high definition cameras, limited autonomy, a radio range of a bit over a mile, about 25 minutes of flight time (and takes about the same to recharge). It can actually penetrate into buildings and trenches.
  • I’m skipping over the idea the video floats of these things spying on Russian planes, since the size/speed/distance equation simply isn’t there.

    But all these high tech capabilities come at a price: “$195,000 per unit.” You can buy an awful lot of RPG drones for that kind of money…

    The drones are not brand-spanking new, and were used in Afghanistan. However, I’ve got to think the Russian’s insistence on extensive defensive fortification are going to make them ideal for the sort of atomized conflicts we’ve seen thus far in the war, and they should be great at spotting targets for artillery and weapons drones.

    I can see having one of these per infantry platoon. But the high per-unit costs precludes the idea they discuss of each member of the platoon having one, at least until that cost comes way, way down…

    Report On The State Of Hillsboro

    February 25th, 2024

    Hillsboro is a large town/small city of some 8,000+ people that most Texans have probably driven through at some point. They’re a county seat, sit smack dab in the great plains agricultural belt and have some light manufacturing, but their main economic advantage is being right where I-35E and I-35W join/split to I-35 traveling south to Waco, Austin and San Antonio. Hillsboro is perfectly positioned to be a road trip snack and restroom break stop.

    For years one of Hillsboro’s most notable features was its outlet mall, with a variety of national brands. I bought a Fossil watch from their store many, many years ago.

    Well, I traveled through there to and from the Metroplex for a funeral, the outlet mall is dead. Though the two open air mall segments have space for some 86 stores, there’s now precisely one open, a Bath and Body Works. The Hillsboro outlet mall was already ailing before the Flu Manchu lockdowns, but that seems top have accelerated the decline. (San Marcos outlet malls, also on the I-35 corridor, seem to done a much better job weathering the economic headwinds.) This would suggest Hillsboro has entered a period of economic stagnation and decline.

    Not so fast! Buc-ess, the Texas mega convenience store chain, is opening a store in Hillsboro. Also, Buc-ess pays pretty good wages for a convenience store: “$18.00 * Medical * Dental * Vision * 3 Weeks Paid Time Off * 401k 100% Match up to 6%.”

    This is the point where I’m supposed to insert some pithy “when one door closes another opens” aphorism. But I rather strongly suspect this particular mall closing scenario plays out very differently in a blue locale like New York or California, where everyone with the means to do so is moving away from those failing high-tax, high-crime states as fast as they can.

    There’s no one coming to save those towns.