More Colorado Gun-Grabber Recall Fallout

September 12th, 2013

Some more reactions and tidbits on the Colorado gun-grabber recall:

  • John Lott has a lot of interesting analysis over at NRO. Some tidbits:
    • Both state-senate districts were overwhelmingly Democratic. In 2012, President Obama carried Morse’s district by 21 percentage points and Giron’s by 19 points.
    • These were the first recalls of legislators in Colorado history. Nationally, recalls of state legislators, particularly state legislative leaders, has been very difficult. Morse and Giron were only the 37th and 38th state legislators in U.S. history to face recall votes (before this vote, precisely half the efforts had succeeded). Prior to Morse, there had only been four recall elections against legislative leaders, and the legislative leader was retained in three of those four races. Giron was also a powerful senator, serving as vice chairman of the very important, especially for her rural district, Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Energy Committee.
    • Not only did getting a recall on the ballot require a number of signatures amounting to 25 percent of all the votes in the previous election, but the Democrats didn’t take even that battle lying down. During the signature-gathering effort, recall proponents were outspent by the groups backed by billionaire Mayor Bloomberg that went in earlier with ads to discourage signature gathering.
    • In their last races for the state senate, in 2010, Morse raised $163,972 and Giron $68,710. By the last filing for the recall, on August 29, Morse had raised $658,230 and Giron $825,400. While the NRA had donated $361,700, just two billionaires, Bloomberg and Eli Broad, donated a total of $600,000 between them. Left-wing organizations such as the Daily Kos and MoveOn.org continually bombarded their members with requests for money. Of the $3.5 million spent on the recall election, almost $3 million came from its opponents.
  • How did the pro-Second Amendent side win? A superior ground game.

    It’s one thing for a deliberately polarizing legislator like Morse to lose a close race in a swing district. It’s quite another for Giron to lose by 12 points in a district that is 47% Democratic and 23% Republican. One reason is that in blue collar districts like Pueblo, there are plenty of Democrats who cling to their Second Amendment rights. As the Denver Post noted, 20% of the voters who signed the Giron recall petitions were Democrats….

    For abuse of office, John Morse and Angela Giron have been recalled from office by the People of Colorado, to be replaced by legislators who will listen before the vote.

    (Hat tip: Shall Not Be Questioned.)

  • Today’s example of media bias on firearms comes to from the Denver Post.

    For starters, the headline writer displays a rather loose grasp on reality: “Colorado recall slows gun-control momentum.”

    Uh, what momentum? The gun grabbers have lost every fight since the initial knee-jerk legislation.

    Writer Ryan Parker works a bit of rhetorical slight of hand further in: “And while the pro gun-control movement — on both the state and national level — had significant momentum following the Aurora and Sandy Hook massacres of 2012, Thursday night’s history-making recall election may have all but stopped Democrats’ response, Second Amendment supporters claim.”

    “Had” momentum being the key word here, and only in the immediate aftermath, and only where it was possible for liberals at the state level, backed by overwhelming in-kind support from their local and national media wing, to exploit the tragedy by pushing rushed, ill-conceived legislation through against the wishes of actual constituents. Did Mr. Parker not notice the crushing defeats the gun-grabbing agenda experienced at the national level? Was he on vacation when that downpayment on the gun-grabbing agenda, Manchin-Toomey, failed to make it out of the Senate? That’s point when “momentum” for the gun-grabbing cause went from “small and slowing” to “non-existent.”

    Also, note how Parker reprints one whole sentence from an NRA spokesman, but concludes with three paragraphs from members of the gun-grabbing camp.

  • A more expensive breakdown of spending from NRO’s Jim Geraghty.
  • Sean Trende on why the results just might be important.

    Democratic incumbents simply don’t lose in states like Delaware and California unless they have done something very, very wrong. They certainly don’t lose by 12 points. In fact, even in the great GOP midterm election of 2010, only a handful of Republicans won in districts where the president approached 60 percent of the vote (using his 2008 numbers, of course), and most of those were in Illinois, where Obama’s vote share had been somewhat enhanced by his “hometown hero” status. It’s just really difficult to write these results off completely, especially given that these were relatively high-profile special elections, driven by issues rather than personality….

    The bottom line is that there is something of a damned-if-you-do/damned-if-you-don’t aspect to the Democrats’ argument. If this isn’t about turnout, but rather is a reaction to policy, then relatively modest gun-control efforts look pretty radioactive, and an awful lot of Democrats who supported the federal gun-control bill ought to look over their shoulders. This is especially true in Colorado, where nine Democrats occupy seats that are more Republican than the ones Republicans just flipped.

  • From the Pueblo Chieftain:

    Elected to replace them were Republicans George Rivera in Pueblo and Bernie Herpin in Colorado Springs. They promised to be responsive to and representative of the people. This seemed to strike the right chord with voters who have tired of local legislators joining the liberal metrocentric crowd in Denver.

  • Just For the Record: Rep. John Carter Against Syrian Intervention

    September 11th, 2013

    It looks increasingly like a moot point, but since I previously mentioned it, I wanted to confirm that my own Representative, John Carter, is a firm “No” on bombing Syria, as per this letter from him:

    Dear Mr. Person:

    Thank you for contacting me about President Obama’s proposal to launch a military strike against Syria.

    President Obama has asked Congress to authorize a U.S. military strike in the wake of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces use of chemical weapons on August 21, 2013.

    My constituents and the majority of Americans have voiced their opposition to this ill-conceived proposal and I stand with them. The President has not provided a solid reason as to why he believes the United States should attack the sovereign nation of Syria or how this action would deter al-Assad in the future. A political agenda is no reason to put our sons and daughters in danger or involve our country in another costly war while dealing with a budgetary crisis, the President’s damaging sequester and reduced troop levels.

    The lack of a legitimate foreign policy since the beginning of this administration has placed America into the situation we face today. I believe the President’s decision to attack Syria is not based on defending the security of our nation, but is based on defending his political agenda and his ‘red line’. The administration’s plan to support and aid the rebel faction which include members of Al Qaeda and the assumptions that they will call America their friend after attacking President Bashar al-Assad is a misguided strategy at best. There are many issues that the country should be focused on and kicking a hornets’ nest is not one of them.

    Nothing has proven President Obama’s proposal would be effective and he has not given specific timetables for a resolution to the crisis. I believe we should work with the world community through diplomatic measures that will protect others from the deplorable use of chemical weapons. The central question for policy makers remains how best to bring the conflict in Syria to a close before the crisis consigns the region to one of several destructive and destabilizing scenarios.

    You can be sure I will keep your strong views in mind as I monitor developments in Syria and surrounding regions. If given the opportunity to vote on this matter, I will oppose the President’s dangerous request. I appreciate having the opportunity to represent you in the U.S. House of Representatives. Please feel free to visit my website (www.house.gov/carter) or contact me with any future concerns.

    Sincerely,
    John Carter
    Member of Congress

    Yes votes to bomb Syria seem mighty hard to come by

    Both Gun-Grabbing Colorado State Senators Recalled

    September 11th, 2013

    What does unstinting support for disarming the law-abiding get politicians in America these days? A pink slip. Both John Morse and Angela Giron are now ex-state senators.

    A couple of weeks ago, Giron had this to say: “For Mayors Against Illegal Guns, if they lose even one of these seats, they might as well fold it up. And they understand that.”

    Word is that the gun-grabbing time spent six times as much as the Second Amendment side in the recall and still lost. (But Colorado’s campaign finance laws exclude counting a lot of third party money, so don’t take that as gospel.)

    A few reactions:

  • The gun grabbers have woken up regular Americans, much to their discomfort.
  • Tam has noticed a sudden lack of recall news coverage. What a curious phenomena! What could possibly be the reason for it?
  • Bitter at Shall Not Be Questioned: “The billionaire didn’t deliver. Joe Biden called these lawmakers, and not even Obama could save them in blue districts in a blue state.”
  • And this tweet from last night has 100 retweets:

    Bottom line: If you’re a politician, and you choose to listen to Nurse Bloomberg rather than your constituents, you will be replaced.

    Fig Leaf Syrian Strike Cancelled Thanks To Fig Leaf Deal

    September 10th, 2013

    Who knew stopping a war could be so easy?

    Not the Syrian war itself, of course; that grinds on unabated. But Obama’s ill-advised attempt to directly involve the U.S. in it seems to have been derailed.

    Now, instead of the fig leaf of an unbelievably small attack on Syria to assuage Obama’s wounded ego over Assad waltzing all over his red line with a chemical weapons attack, now he gets to climb down thanks to the fig leaf of what will be a laughable, easily circumvented UN supervision of whatever chemical stockpiles Assad wants to turn over to them. We’ve seen how ridiculously ineffective UN oversight was in Iraq even with US force to back it up; there’s no reason to assume it will be any more effective in Syria.

    But make no mistake: This is a better outcome than an attack that would be various parts ill-advised and laughable, depending on the size. Now Obama gets to accomplish exactly as much as he would before (namely nothing) without the risk of going to war.

    It’s a win-win solution.

    Barry Smitherman Is Not Helping Himself

    September 10th, 2013

    In the last two weeks, Barry Smitherman has put his foot in it twice, committing unforced errors in his quest to move up from the Railroad Commission to the Attorney General’s office.

    First, he said that America’s low birth-rate was a long-term threat to the nation and that many aborted babies “would have voted Republican.”

    The first assertion is plausible (albeit a long-term concern), but very far indeed from the purvey of the Texas Attorney General. The second statement, in addition to being statistically dubious (minorities tend to both have abortions and vote Democratic at a much higher rate than whites), is offensive because it takes a profound moral issue and trivializes it by turning it into a partisan issue.

    Smitherman could easily have avoided the problem by merely stating “I am strongly Pro-Life, and as Attorney General I will protect the unborn and defend Texas laws restricting abortion.” This is a plausible, principled, focused response that presents a much smaller attack surface for the opposition.

    As if shooting himself in the foot wasn’t sufficient, Smitherman promptly took his gun out of the holster again, took aim, and shot himself in the other foot, stating:

    “We are uniquely situated because we have energy resources, fossil and otherwise, and our own independent electrical grid. Generally speaking, we have made great progress in becoming an independent nation, an ‘island nation’ if you will, and I think we want to continue down that path so that if the rest of the country falls apart, Texas can operate as a stand-alone entity with energy, food, water and roads as if we were a closed-loop system.”

    With just a little editing, Smitherman could have sounded far-sighted rather than kooky, emphasizing keeping Texas prosperous, and our infrastructure working, no matter the challenges or difficulties in the rest of the nation. However, when you start speaking of “an independent nation,” then you’ve stopped making sense and started to play footsie with the “Secede!” kooks.

    As a science fiction writer, I can spin a number of vaguely plausible (but unlikely) scenarios in which Texas might secede from the United States. Hell, I can even think of situations where I might push for such action myself (if the feds abolished private property and civilian firearms ownership, I’d be headed for the barricades). What all those scenarios have in common is that none of them are particularly likely, certainly not in the short term, and probably not in the medium term even. (And good freaking luck “seceding” from hyperinflation, a far more likely “doomsday” scenario than any which result in Texas becoming its own country again.)

    Look, I’m a native Texan. I’m proud of the state’s heritage as an independent nation, and do believe that (if we had to) Texas could succeed and thrive as an independent nation. But talk about secession (and the “War of Northern Aggression”) is only get a rise out of the yankees, and no one who takes it seriously should be holding statewide elective office. The United States of America will survive Obama, and there’s a difference between prepping and conspiratorial doomsday mongering. (And “closed-loop” economic autarky is loser economics.)

    Moreover, even in that extremely unlikely scenario, I fail to see how the Attorney General of Texas would have a leading role in such preparations. The fact that Smitherman brought it up suggests (again) that he lacks the focus and message discipline necessary to be Attorney General.

    Wayne Christian Joins the Railroad Commissioner Race

    September 9th, 2013

    Former Rep. Wayne Christian has joined the Railroad commissioner race.

    Christian lost his seat to the Joe Straus-backed Chris Paddie in the Republican primary after losing 80% of his district in redistricting. Christian is already generating some grassroots enthusiasm in a crowded Railroad Commissioner field that already includes Malachi Boyuls, who has drawn some heavyweight support himself, and state Rep. Stefani Carter.

    Not Too Syrious Roundup

    September 6th, 2013

    Obama’s call for attacking Syria is meeting such heavy opposition that he already has a domestic quagmire on his hands getting it approved. Here’s a mini-roundup of Syria news:

  • I can’t really start quoting this Charles Krauthammer takedown of the incoherence of Obama’s Syrian policy, because there’s so much good stuff here that it will be hard to stop. OK, one quote: “There’s no strategy, no purpose here other than helping Obama escape self-inflicted humiliation.”
  • There’s a word for what Obama and Kerry want in Syria: War.
  • Iran wants to attack us if we attack Syria. If this is Obama’s masterful scheme to jujitsu Iran into giving him cover to take out their nuclear program I may have to revise my opinion of him. But how likely is that?
  • Obama’s serial Syrian blunders. “The only nation contemplating joining the United States in military action is France. That’s 38 fewer allies than joined the United States after the supposed unilateralist George W. Bush, with congressional authorization, ordered troops into Iraq.”
  • Obama has changed the military’s strike plans against Syria 50 times. Does he think he’s planning the perfect Zerg Rush in Starcraft?
  • The world set a red line in Syria? Well then, let the world enforce it.
  • Democrats in congress will be dragooned into voting for war to “save the president’s hide.”
  • Was Samantha Powers really dumb enough to think that Iran would abandon Syria over chemical weapons? (Hat tip: Ace.)
  • Obama’s road to Damascus. The goal of the POTUS: “ultimately we have a transition that can bring peace and stability, not only to Syria but to the region.” Peace and stability in the Middle East. Well, nothing too naive or ambitious about that goal, is there?
  • When John Kerry says that the Syrian rebels are “mostly moderates,” he’s using the rhetorical device know as lying.
  • The New York Times has some disturbing intelligence on some of Kerry’s “moderates.”
  • Lindsey Graham continues his downward spiral into irrelevance by declaring that failure to bomb Iraq would mean an Iran-Israel war within 6 months. Honestly, I’m a lot more enthused about that possibility than us bombing involved in Syria, if only on the off-chance an Israel-Iran war might actually accomplish something.
  • As I’m not one who credits the left for, well, much of anything, really, let’s give credit where credit is due and give the anti-war types some points for consistency: Moveon.org opposes a strike against Syria.
  • George Mitchell of The Nation says no thanks as well, citing Obama and Kerry’s many Syrian lies.
  • Even Obama’s own OAF is twiddling its thumbs rather than voicing support or opposition.
  • Syria’s war spills into Lebanon.
  • Whip Count: Texas Congressional Delegation on Syria

    September 6th, 2013

    It’s taking a while to get back up to speed after Worldcon, but here’s a little content to prove I’m not dead (just dead tired). And it’s proven a moving target that took longer to put together than I expected

    The Hill has an an ongoing whip count on those who oppose or support a strike against Syria. Huffington Post has another count. This is shaping up to be a case of actual Americans on both the left and right opposing Obama’s Big Adventure, while the Permanent Party of Washington Insiders is supporting it.

    Texas Congressmen On Record Opposing A Strike On Syria

    (if no link from their name, they’re on the Hill or Huff Puff lists)
    Republicans

  • Sen. Ted Cruz
  • Rep. Joe Barton
  • Rep. Kevin Brady
  • Rep. Michael C. Burgess
  • Rep. Mike Conaway
  • Rep. John Culberson
  • Rep. Blake Farenthold
  • Rep. Bill Flores
  • Rep. Louis Gohmert
  • Ralph M. Hall
  • Rep. Sam Johnson
  • Rep. Kenny Marchant
  • Rep. Michael McCaul
  • Rep. Randy Neugebauer
  • Rep. Ted Poe
  • Rep. Lamar Smith
  • Rep. Mac Thornberry
  • Rep. Roger Williams
  • Rep. Randy Weber
  • Democrats

  • Lloyd Doggett
  • Texas Congressmen On Record Supporting A Strike On Syria

    Republicans
    None.

    Democrats

  • Rep. Joaquín Castro (Huff Puff says neutral, The Hill says leaning yes)
  • Rep. Henry Cueller
  • Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee
  • Rep. Marc A. Veasey
  • Here’s a list of Texas Republican Congressmen who were listed as undecided in the Huff Puff piece, along with contact info:

  • Sen. John Cornyn (Contact form, 202-224-2934, additional office contact locations)
  • Rep. John Carter (Contact form, (202) 225-3864, Round Rock (512) 246-1600, Temple (254) 933-1392)
  • Rep. Jeb Hensarling (Contact form, (202) 225-3484, Athens, (903) 675-8288, Dallas (214) 349-9996)
  • Rep. Kay Granger (Contact form, (202) 225-5071, Fort Worth (817) 338-0909)
  • Rep. Pete Olson (Contact form, (202) 225-5951, Pearland (281) 485-4855, Sugar Land (281) 494-2690)
  • Rep. Pete Sessions (Contact form, (202) 225-2231, Dallas (972) 392-0505)
  • Steve Stockman (Contact form, (202) 225-1555, Cleveland (409) 883-8028 Orange, TX 77630, (409) 883-8075, Pasadena (281-478-2799)
  • Contact information for Texas congressional critters from Dwight’s blog.

    So, for those of you playing along on the home game: Both Ted Cruz and Lloyd Doggett oppose attacking Syria. That’s a pretty broad coalition.

    Quote of the Day

    August 30th, 2013

    Benedikt could lecture you until the cows came home about your moral obligation to public schooling, but you still wouldn’t leave your kids in a school where the teachers were being set on fire.

    Blogroll Addition: Legal Insurrection

    August 29th, 2013

    I’ll be wearing my science fiction hat a lot this week, so expect light posting through Labor Day (and maybe a little beyond).

    So instead of Actual Content, I’m going to highlight some new additions to the Blogroll.

    First up: Legal Insurrection (or Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion, to use the full, “Hell no I’m not going to type that every time” name), which I’ve linked the occasional tidbit from forever, but only just added to the blogroll. Run by Cornell Law Professor William A. Jacobson, Legal Insurrection covers a wide variety of political topics, legal and otherwise. And he was kind enough to add a link to my post on the #SolidarityIsForWhiteWomen tag to his own post.

    He posts frequently on interesting topics, so go over and take a look when you get a chance.