Busy working on other stuff, so consider this an “instead of a real update” update:
Presidential Race Roundup for March 10, 2016
March 10th, 2016Why Cruz Going for the Jugular in Ohio and Florida Is The Right Call
March 9th, 2016If you haven’t heard, Cruz is going all-in to deny Marco Rubio a victory in Florida…even if it hands the winner-take-all state to Trump.
Ace of Spades HQ makes a compelling case that this is the right call:
However, let’s look at the flip side — what happens if Rubio and Kasich win? In that case, both men will declare victory — obviously — and then say this proves what they’ve been saying all along, that America is now ready to embrace them, that the map looks better from them starting with Guam, that they’re going to take it all the way to the convention.
And then we continue on with the field unwinnowed, and Trump continuing to win more delegates than Cruz by 43% to 36% margins. Not huge margins — but they’ll get you there, and if you’re not gaining on Trump, you’re losing to Trump.
Thus, the way I see it, the downside to Cruz of delivering Florida and Ohio to Trump is less down than the downside of letting Rubio and Kasich get their stupid fucking Participation Trophy and their excuse (and financial backing) to continue dicking around in a race that neither man can win. Neither of these guys can win more delegates than Trump now; both are hoping just to have a contested convention, and then hope that the Establishment reaches past the 1st and 2nd place finishers to deliver the win to the third or fourth place “winner” — Rubio Gold come literally true, in other words.
This makes no sense from Cruz’s perspective.
It’s time to take them both out, and then take his chances one-on-one with Trump.
Snip.
if Rubio and Kasich stay in, and continue kneecapping Cruz from winning (or winning these crucial Winner Take Alls by 50% – Cruz would be ahead of Trump if Rubio hadn’t played in Texas or Idaho), then there is no shot to get Cruz anywhere near Trump’s tally — and Trump wins the nomination.
So tell me the Truth, guys: Is #NeverTrump a real thing, or is it just a quick dash of new paint on the #Rubio4Ever thing you’ve had going for a year now?
If you want to stop Trump, you need to end these Rubio fantasies and let the only guy with an actual chance of stopping him start getting into two man races with him.
Otherwise, your #NeverTrump slogan is a lie — you’re perfectly fine with Trump. You just are using that as another pretext to lobby for Rubio.
So yeah, from Cruz’s point of view, and frankly from any sane Republican’s point of view (that is, apart from the Rubio and Kasich diehards) — it’s time to cash these two guys out. Out.
These guys are throwing the race to Trump.
And their supporters will not give up on their fantasies until those fantasies are violently torn from their hands, set on fire, and then buried under a swamp.
Clowntime is over. The time for Rubio Fantasy Love Scenarios is over. It’s time for real, tough decisions to be made, or to be made on behalf of those who just can’t get over it.
Cruz won Idaho and was second to Trump everywhere else last night.
It’s past time for Rubio and Kasich to exit the race, but for either ego or strategic leverage at the convention both refuse to do so. So Cruz doing whatever he needs to in order to boot them off the stage is the right call.
Trump Wins Early Louisiana Voting, Cruz Wins Election Day
March 8th, 2016Heard about this election day, but Philip Bump in the Washington Post provides more details: Donald Trump won early voting, but Ted Cruz’s percentage of the vote soared on election day:
One of two things happened in Louisiana. We know that the margins between the top three candidates in the state shifted dramatically between votes cast by absentee ballot and those cast on Saturday, the day of the election. That means that either that: 1) A candidate had a very strong get-out-the-vote effort, or 2) There was a broad shift in attitudes about the candidates.
When we looked at this Saturday night, it wasn’t clear which was the case. Now, we have a better sense.
If we look at the votes in counties* for which we have data (culled from the AP’s initial and final vote tallies), you can see that Ted Cruz gained strength after the absentee vote.
Snip.
this looks like the state of Louisiana bailed on Marco Rubio in favor of Ted Cruz. Which could explain why Cruz is targeting Florida all of a sudden. On Saturday night, Donald Trump called for Rubio to drop out of the race. If he can repeat what he did in Louisiana in Florida in just over a week, Cruz will take Rubio out himself.
This pattern mirrors what Cruz did in the 2012 Texas Senate race. Dewhurst beat Cruz by 18% in early voting, but only 3% on primary day, a massive momentum shift that turned into a Cruz victory in the runoff.
Cruz is a smart, disciplined, relentless campaigner, and after Trump’s early successes in open primaries, we’re finally seeing Trump hit his ceiling and Cruz surge ahead as the superior candidate, especially in closed primary and caucus states.
That momentum, and the widespread distaste for Trump, is why many in the Republican establishment are finally, reluctantly, turning to Cruz as the only way to stop Trump.
Black Helicopters and Gas Prices
March 7th, 2016Two observations, linked only that I saw each on the same day when traveling back to Austin from Houston:
- The black helicopters are back. By “black helicopters” I mean military helicopters without visible markings (though I didn’t stop to see if I could spot them) hovering over a highway, in this case I-10 near Katy. It wasn’t the only military activity I saw, as there seemed to be a lot of military transports, either in desert tan or olive drab cammo patterns, on the roads (couldn’t have been anything secret, since they were moving in broad daylight; I don’t assume Uncle Sam is aiming for stealth when he parks a military gasoline tanker in the parking lot of the Bastrop Buc-ees on a Friday afternoon). I’ve seen them over Austin before (usually hovering right over Mopac), but it’s been quite a while. What I don’t mean is NWO paranoia, space aliens, or any of that crap. If I had to guess they’re testing some sort of ground radar equipment, possible a smaller, more portable version of JSTARs. But the first order of business is reportage; people aren’t making black helicopters up out of thin air.
- Speaking of Buc-ees, I stopped there for gas on the way back. Since pay-at-the-pump wasn’t reading my credit/debit card, I went in and paid them $20 to put on a pump. What I had forgotten was that gas has gotten so cheap that I couldn’t put $20 worth of unleaded, at $1.39 a gallon, into my nearly empty tank. I had to go back in and get a $2 refund. One reason I mention this is that, right now, in some places in California, gas is more than $5 a gallon…
Nancy Reagan, RIP
March 6th, 2016Former First Lady Nancy Reagan has died at age 94.
If you were not alive at the time, you would not believe how much the liberal media loathed her in the 1980s. Just look at how ruthlessly they criticized her for buying enough new White House china for 220 people at state dinners for a total cost (not to the taxpayers, mind you, but picked up by a private foundation) for the cost of about 1/40th the average Obama family vacation…
Newsflash: Cruz Wins Kansas Caucuses
March 5th, 2016Ted Cruz has won the Kansas Caucuses with 50% of the vote. Donald Trump is a distant second with a 25.8%, and Marco Rubio an even more distant third with 13.6%.
Cruz is also winning the Maine caucuses with just under 50% of the vote.
I wonder if this news will boost Cruz’s chances in closed primary states that are still voting…
Where The Gun Owners Are In Texas
March 5th, 2016This nifty little map shows you where CHL/LTC owners are in Texas by zip code.
Hint: Everywhere.
Liberals in big cities should just get over their hyperventilating that a lawfully armed citizen might be somewhere near them, since the map shows it’s pretty much a constant certainty. Even the University of Texas at Austin, about which so hand-wringing over campus carry has been conducted, already shows 191 CHL/LTC holders in the 78705 area code.
(Hat tip: Stuf from Hsoi.)
“Psychiatric hospitals filling up with time travellers sent back to kill Donald Trump”
March 3rd, 2016Psychiatric facilities across the United States are at breaking point after the number of people claiming to be sent from the future to stop Donald Trump reached epidemic proportions.
New research has shown that every ten minutes someone claiming to the from the future sent back to save humanity is admitted to a hospital somewhere in the US.
Complete with pic of Bruce Willis in 12 Monkeys.
More Post-Super Tuesday Election Updates
March 3rd, 2016More post-Super Tuesday results and election tidbits.