Posts Tagged ‘Yelets’

Russian Coup Update for June 24, 2023 UPDATE: Coup Already Over?

Saturday, June 24th, 2023

At such a remove from the actions in a vast country with no free news services, it’s hard to definitively say what’s going on with the Russian coup. So here are a variety of “state of play” snippets from various sources (Suchomimus’s discord, MSM, YouTube, Twitter, other social media, etc.). Some of these are rumors that may later turn out to be false, so treat with as many grains of salt as you deem necessary.

  • Wagner Group forces under Yevgeny Prigozhin continue their open rebellion against Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
  • Livemap now has a separate map on the Russian coup up.
  • They evidently took full control of Rostov-on-Don without firing a shot, and reports are that many Russian regular soldiers there have gone over to their side.
  • Wagner forces headed for Moscow.
  • Reports of Russian aircarft hitting Russian gas and ammo depots along the way to deprive Wagner of them.
  • None of Prigozhin’s statements seem to directly attack Russian dictator for life Vladimir Putin.
  • Despite that, Putin declares that backstabbers will be punished.
  • Moscow is under lockdown, with checkpoints and military trucks in the streets, but actual tanks there seem very thin on the ground.
  • Traffic into Moscow has been halted.
  • Dumptrucks of sand are there to block the routes in.
  • But there are reports Wagner has already broken through:

  • Other reports of backhoes literally digging up the roads.
  • Rumors the government is relocating to St. Petersburg (Putin’s hometown).
  • More Internet restrictions have been instituted for Russians.
  • There are rumors that Wagner has been stockpiling fuel and ammo to do this for some time.
  • Even if not, Rustov-on-Don is the biggest logistical hub for the war against Ukraine.
  • “PMC Wagner reportedly in control of Millerovo airfield.” That’s some 60 miles north of Rostov-on-Don.
  • There are reports of Wagner shooting down at least one (and possibly two) Russian helicopter over Voronezh, where small arms clashes have been reported.
  • And bigger than small arms clashes:

    That’s supposedly Russia hitting a Russian oil depot.

  • A bit later: “Wagner PMC captured all key facilities in Voronezh.” Seems a fairly sweeping statement.
  • “Column of PMC Wagner has reportedly passed Yelets of Lipetsk region.”
  • Unconfirmed reports of unrest in Belarus, with soldiers there being tired of living under Putin’s thumb.
  • Reports that Putin-ally leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko flew out of the country, switched off his plane’s transponder, and turned it on again when he was over Turkey.
  • Chechen strongman and bought Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov has evidently announced he’s opposing Wagner’s coup.
  • There are persistent rumors that Prigozhin wouldn’t have launched this coup without at least some support among powerful Russian oligarchs and command elements of the Russian military.

    • Here are some update videos. From Peter Zeihan on the Ukraine war:

    I think Zeihan is too optimistic about the hole Ukraine put in the Chongar bridge, and I think Russians will try to at least run supply trucks around it and hope it doesn’t collapse.

    From Suchomimus:

    Wagner reportedly has 25,000-50,000 men, plus tanks on transporters and anti-aircraft systems. “This isn’t a ragtag army.”

    Russia was “also building defensive positions near Serpukhov, 100 kilometers away from Moscow. So far the troops based around Moscow look like they do remain loyal to Putin.”

    Developing…

    Update: Is the coup already over?

    Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced a deal late on Saturday that Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin would depart for Belarus in return for being spared prosecution, after an abortive rebellion in which his troops made a dash for Moscow.

    The announcement, carried by the Tass news agency, came shortly after embittered warlord Prigozhin announced his men were turning back from Moscow to avoid a devastating civil conflict. In a voice recording posted to his Telegram channel, Prigozhin said his troops would turn back after advancing within 200 kilometers of the capital.

    It was the culmination of an extraordinary day, in which Putin had accused the Wagner group of “treason” and said that their uprising risked tipping Russia into civil war.

    Prigozhin, smarting over the Kremlin’s handling of the war in Ukraine, announced early on Saturday that his mercenaries had seized the major southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, a logistics hub for Putin’s war, and threatened to push on to Moscow. Wagner forces also appeared to be well established in the city of Voronezh, 500 kilometers south of the capital.

    Well, that’s a disappointment to all of us who thought it would allow Ukraine to liberate itself from a distracted Russia.

    Prigozhin’s coup didn’t even last the three days of the 1991 Soviet coup…

    Update 2: Oryx has a list of equipment lost during the coup.

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