Compared to most states, Texas has seen a very little recent change in office-holders elected statewide:
The Railroad Commission and statewide court races haven’t been quite as static. Republican Jim Wright managed to successfully primary Ryan Sitton for his Railroad Commission spot in 2020, and some retirements and federal appointments have resulted in a bit more change in the Texas Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals, but even there reelection has been the norm.
This year, however, the logjam at the top of the ticket finally seems to be breaking up. Hegar is stepping down to become A&M system chancellor, with Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick running to succeed him as Comptroller, along with former state senator Don Huffines. And now Paxton is saying that he might run for Cornyn’s senate seat in 2026.
Attorney General Ken Paxton is nearing a 2026 bid for U.S. Senate against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), depending on if he can obtain $20 million in fundraising commitments in the next couple of months.
On a trip to Washington, D.C. during which he met with various parties, including the White House, Paxton interviewed with Punchbowl News to discuss the long-rumored 2026 bid.
“I think I can win if I have $20 million. I’ve run these primaries in Texas before. I honestly don’t see how [Cornyn] overcomes his numbers,” he told Punchbowl.
Public polling has been fairly scant on the matchup. The Texas Politics Project’s poll earlier this month put Paxton’s net approval rating at +51 percent among Republicans compared to Cornyn’s +28 percent.
A Hobby School of Public Affairs poll from February showed both candidates registering around 70 percent among Republicans who said they’d “definitely consider” or “might consider” voting for them in the 2026 primary; 15 percent said they’d never vote for Cornyn in the primary, while 19 percent said that about Paxton.
Paxton added, “I think it’s just time. He’s had his chance. He hasn’t performed well, and the voters know it. You can go a long time without people paying attention. And they’re paying attention now. If the numbers were the other way, I wouldn’t be sitting here.”
The coveted endorsement from President Donald Trump will be key in the race. Three years ago, Paxton eventually received Trump’s backing after the then-former president very much considered backing his primary challenger George P. Bush. Cornyn received Trump’s backing in 2020 when he dispatched Dwayne Stovall and the GOP primary field by a mile.
Paxton has long cozied up to Trump, and has been among his most active allies in legal fights across the board. But Cornyn has increasingly appealed to Trump as the 2026 election gets closer, and he’s expected to have the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee with its deep pockets supplementing his own.
There’s long been disgruntlement about Cornyn among movement conservatives who think he’s a squish on a wide range of issues, from the Second Amendment to limiting illegal immigration, though Cornyn seems to have repented of his previous record of playing footsie with “comprehensive immigration reform” (i.e. illegal alien amnesty). Despite those misgivings, Cornyn has consistently trounced underfunded primary challengers like Dwayne Stovall and Steve Stockman by comfortable margins.
Paxton would be a different kettle of fish.
With his record of suing both the Obama and Biden Administrations for their unconstitutional, radical left-wing policies, Paxton is much more popular with the Republican base than Cornyn. Also, with all his previous legal issues resolved and the dramatic failure of the Dade Phelan-led impeachment effort against him, Paxton is better positioned to run than ever. But, as the above list of long-tenured officials shows, successfully primarying a statewide Republican in Texas is an extremely difficult proposition. Cornyn has already said that he’s running for a fifth term, and he’ll still have all the advantages of incumbency, including juicy campaign contributions from a wide variety of business and special interest PACs.
Another potential Cornyn primary challenger is U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt. Hunt is sufficiently conservative, but I don’t see him gaining much traction against two heavyweight opponents like Cornyn and Paxton, both of whom have already run multiple successful statewide campaigns.
If Paxton runs, the 2026 senate race will be very interesting…