Posts Tagged ‘Wayne Christian’
Saturday, November 12th, 2022
National results were a deep disappointment to Republicans expecting a red wave. What about the results in Texas? Better:
Republicans retained all statewide races.
Incumbent governor Greg Abbott walloped Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke by about a point less than he walloped Lupe Valdez in 2018, the year O’Rourke got within three points of Ted Cruz in the Texas senate race. 2018’s Betomania seems to have slightly raised the floor for Democrats in various down-ballot races, but not enough for them to be competitive statewide. This is O’Rourke’s third high-profile flameout in five years, and one wonders whether out-of-state contributors are getting wise to the game.
Vote totals seem down a bit from 2018, with the governor’s race drawing about 266,000 fewer voters.
Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick increased the margin by which he beat Mike Collier (also his opponent in 2018) from about five points to about ten points.
For all the talk of Ken Paxton being the most vulnerable statewide incumbent, he also won his race over Rochelle Garza by about 10 points, as opposed to a three and half point victory over Justin Nelson (a man so obscure he has no Wikipedia entry) in 2018. (Thought experiment: Could Beto have beaten Paxton this year? My gut says his money would have made it a lot closer than his race with Abbott, but I think he still would have lost by about the same margin he lost to Ted Cruz in 2018. But his lack of a law degree would have worked against him, and I doubt his ego would ever consider running in a down-ballot race like AG…)
In the Comptroller, Land Commissioner and Agriculture Commissioner races, Republicans were up a bit around 56%, and Democrats were down a bit more. (And Dawn Buckingham replacing George P. Bush should be a big improvement.)
Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian had the biggest spread between him and Democratic opponent Luke Warford, 15 points (55% to 40%).
Three Republican statewide judicial race winners (Rebeca Huddle in Supreme Court Place 5, Scott Walker in Court of Criminal Appeals Place 5, and Jesse F. McClure in Court of Criminal Appeals Place 6) were the only statewide candidates to garner 4.5 million or more votes (possibly due to the absence of Libertarian candidates).
Of three closely watched Texas majority Hispanic house seats, only Monica De La Cruz in TX15 won, while Myra Flores (TX34) and Cassy Garcia (TX28) lost.
Though Republicans came up short in those two U.S. congressional seats, statewide they “narrowly expanded their legislative majorities in both the House and Senate.”
In the House, the GOP grew its ranks by one — giving them an 86-to-64 advantage in the 150-member chamber for the 2023 legislative session. The Senate has 31 members, and Republicans previously outnumbered Democrats 18 to 13. The GOP will hold at least 19 seats next session. Democrats will hold at least 11, though they are leading in one Senate race that is still too close to call.
The Republicans’ victories were felt prominently in South Texas, where the GOP won key races after targeting the historically Democratic region of Texas after Democratic President Joe Biden underperformed there in 2020.
In House District 37, now anchored in Harlingen, Republican Janie Lopez beat Democrat Luis Villareal Jr. The seat is currently held by Democratic state Rep. Alex Dominguez, who unsuccessfully ran for state Senate rather than seek reelection. The district was redrawn to cut out many of the Democratic voters in Brownsville from the district to the benefit Republicans. Biden carried District 37 by 17.1 points in 2020 under the old boundaries, but would have won by only 2.2 points under the new map.
Lopez would be the first Latina Republican to represent the Rio Grande Valley in the House.
In another major South Texas victory, Rep. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City, who defected from the Democratic Party and ran this cycle as a Republican, won reelection handily.
In another crucial battle in southern Bexar County, which has traditionally been dominated by Democrats, Republican incumbent John Lujan prevailed over Democrat Frank Ramirez, a former San Antonio City Council member.
Who did well? Incumbent Republican congressman Dan Crenshaw. Remember this ad from 2020? In addition to Crenshaw winning reelection by some 73,000 votes, August Pfluger and Beth Van Duyne won reelection to their districts, and Wesley Hunt, who ran a close-but-no-cigar race for TX7 in 2020, managed to win the race for newly created TX38 this year. (My guess is that, just like Rep. Byron Donalds (FL19) and Rep. Burgess Owens (UT4), Hunt will be blocked from joining the Congressional Black Caucus.)
Is there any sign of black support for Democrats eroding? A bit. In 2018, Democratic Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (one of the very dimmest bulbs in congress) received 75.3% of the vote from her black and Hispanic majority district. In 2020, she received 73.3%. In 2022 (post redistricting), she received 70.7%. Slow progress, but progress none the less.
Unfortunately, corrupt Harris County Democratic head Lina Hidalgo managed to edge her Republican opponent by a mere 15,000 votes.
Leftwing fossil Lloyd Doggett was elected to his fifteenth term in congress, crushing his Republican opponent for the newly created 37th congressional district, while communist twerp Greg Casar (formerly of the Austin City Council) was elected to the 35th, formerly Doggett’s prior to redistricting.
Tarrant County had been trending more purple recently, going for O’Rourke over Cruz there by about 4,000 votes in 2018, and going for Biden over Trump by a mere 2,000 votes (less than .3%). But Abbott beat O’Rourke there by some 25,000 votes.
Jefferson County (Beaumont) is another county that’s flipped back. It went for O’Rourke over Cruz by about 500 votes,and flipped back to Trump over by around 500, but Abbott walloped O’Rouke by over 8,000 votes this year.
The runoff in the Austin Mayoral race will be on December 13 between hard lefty Celia Israel, and soft lefty retread Kirk Watson. If Watson picks up a clear majority of third place finisher Jennifer Virden’s voters (which seems likely), he should win.
As I mentioned in the Liveblog, the social justice warrior slate beat the conservative slate in Round Rock ISD.
This is a side effect of Williamson County, formerly a reliable Republican bulwark, becoming decidedly more liberal as Austin has become a hotbed of radical leftism. Abbott still edged O’Rourke by some 2,000 votes here, but Biden beat Trump by about 4,000 votes in 2020.
If 1978 is the year this election reminds me of nationally, then 1984 is the template year for Texas politics. In 1982, Phil Gramm resigned after Democrats threw him off the House Budget Committee (because why would you want a professional economist on a budget committee?), switched parties, and ran for his own vacancy in a special election as a Republican, winning handily.
Gramm’s switch showed that the time for conservatives to remain welcome in the Democratic Party was drawing to a close, and the way he resigned to run again rather than just switching made him a folk hero among Texas republicans. In 1984, Gramm ran for the senate, walloping Ron Paul, Robert Mosbacher, Jr. (a sharp guy who eventually did better in business than politics) and former Texas gubernatorial candidate Hank Grover in the Republican primary before decisively beating Lloyd Doggett (yep, the same one that’s still in congress) in the general by some 900,000 votes.
Gramm’s victory showed that the political careers of conservative Democrats who switched to the Republican Party could not only survive, but thrive. Between 1986 and the late 1990s, a series of high profile conservative Texas Democrats (including Kent Hance and Rick Perry) would switch from an increasingly radical Democratic Party to the GOP.
So too, this year showed that Hispanic Democrats could leave a party increasingly out of tune with people they represented (largely hard-working, law-abiding, entrepreneurial, conservative, and Catholic) for the Republican Party and win. Republicans may not have flipped terribly many seats in south Texas, but except for recent special election-winner Myra Flores, they held their gains.
The combination of Trump’s distinct appeal to working class Hispanics, deep opposition to disasterous Democratic open borders policies, and Gov. Abbott’s long term dedication to building out Republican infrastructure there have all primed Hispanics to shift to the GOP. Just as it took years for all Texas conservatives and most moderates to abandon the Democratic Party (Republicans wouldn’t sweep statewide offices until 1998), it will take years for the majority of Hispanics to switch.
But if Democrats continue to push open borders, social justice, radical transgenderism, soft on crime policies, high taxes and socialism, expect Hispanics to make that switch sooner rather than later.
That’s my Texas race roundup. If you have any notable highlights you think I should have covered, feel free to share them in the comments below.
Tags:2022 Attorney General's Race, 2022 Election, 2022 Lt. Governor's Race, 2022 Texas Governor's Race, 35th Congressional District, 37th Congressional District, 38th Congressional District, Alex Dominguez, August Pfluger, Austin, Beth Van Duyne, Beto O'Rourke, black, Burgess Owens, Byron Donalds, Cassy Garcia, Celia Israel, Dan Crenshaw, Dan Patrick, Dawn Buckingham, Elections, Frank Ramirez, Greg Abbott, Greg Casar, Harlingen, Hispanics, Janie Lopez, Jesse F. McClure, John Lujan, Ken Paxton, Kirk Watson, Lina Hidalgo, Lloyd Doggett, Luis Villareal Jr., Luke Warford, Mike Collier, Monica De La Cruz, Myra Flores, Phil Gramm, Rebeca Huddle, Rio Grande Valley, Rochelle Garza, Round Rock, Round Rock ISD, Ryan Guillen, Scott Walker (Texas), Tarrant County, Texas, Texas 15th Congressional District, Texas 28th Congressional District, Texas 34th Congressional District, Wayne Christian
Posted in Austin, Border Control, Crime, Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Social Justice Warriors, Texas | 11 Comments »
Wednesday, May 25th, 2022
All the favorites won in yesterday’s statewide Republican primary runoff races:
Ken Paxton clobbered George P. Bush with more than two-thirds of the vote. Paxton won 67.90% to Bush’s 32.10%. Bush went from getting more votes than Greg Abbott in 2014 to garnering less than one-third of the vote in a runoff, and the only sizeable county he won was Travis. Back in 2014, a whole lot of political pundits talked about Bush as though he were some political golden boy destined for higher office. Those notices proved premature. Now everyone is talking about “the end of the Bush dynasty.” Maybe, but that talk may also be premature; that bush has a lot of branches…
Dawn Buckingham also won more than two-thirds of the vote against underfunded challenger Tim Westley.
Wayne Christian didn’t quite get 2/3rds of the vote against challenger Sarah Stogner, but didn’t fall short by much, winning 65.04% of the vote to Strogner’s 34.96%. So that $2 million that transexual West Texas ranching heir Ashley (formerly Andrew) Watt poured into the race may have bought Stogner an extra 2% of the vote.
In other races, Pete Flores beat Raul Reyes in Senate District 24 (as expected), and Ellen Troxclair beat Justin Berry with 56.48% of the vote in State House District 19.
Texas Scorecard notes that in open races, a lot of school choice advocates beat the candidates that Governor Greg Abbott endorsed…
Tags:2022 Attorney General's Race, 2022 Election, Dawn Buckingham, Elections, Ellen Troxclair, George P. Bush, Justin Berry, Ken Paxton, Pete Flores, Republicans, runoff, Sarah Stogner, Texas, Texas Scorecard, Tim Westley, Wayne Christian
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Tuesday, May 24th, 2022
Today is the Texas runoff election. Here is some brief coverage of the races and who I’ll be voting for.
Texas Attorney General: Incumbent Ken Paxton vs. current Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Paxton has campaigned on a solid conservative record and an endorsement of President Donald Trump, while Bush has dropped a bunch of direct mail flyers trying to label Paxton as corrupt. My pick here is strong favorite Paxton, who has constantly followed conservative principles in filing lawsuits against both federal overreach and neglect of enumerated constitutional duties. Moreover, the charges against Paxton have dragged out over seven years, long after the underlying federal charges were dismissed, making it seem more like a political witch hunt and possible Sixth Amendment rights violation than anything resembling justice. George P. Bush has hardly been impressive in his stint as Land Commissioner and doesn’t deserve a promotion.
Texas Land Commissioner: Former Texas Senator Dawn Buckingham vs. Dr. Tim Westley. Buckingham is the pick here, and she’s going to win this one running away, having been endorsed by Trump, Ted Cruz and the NRA, and holding a significant financial advantage over her underfunded challenger. Westley seems like a nice guy, but he has the profile of someone who should start out running in a local race.
Texas Railroad Commissioner: Incumbent Wayne Christian vs. challenger Sarah Stogner. Christian, a solid conservative, is the pick here, endorsed by Cruz, Abbott, Rick Perry and Dan Patrick, and should win this one running away, despite Strogner getting a huge $2 million donation from transexual West Texas ranching heir Ashley (formerly Andrew) Watt Watt), who nurses a grudge against the Railroad Commission. Stogner’s previous donation to Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign against Ted Cruz isn’t helping her case any either…
Texas Senate District 24: Pete Flores vs. Raul Reyes: Flores is the heavy favorite here, having been endorsed by Trump, Cruz, Abbott, Perry and Patrick. Despite all that, I will be voting for Reyes, based on Flores seeming a bit squishy to me, and Reyes receiving the endorsements of Gun Owners of America and several Tea Party groups.
Voting locations:
Williamson County
Travis County
Tags:2022 Attorney General's Race, 2022 Election, Andrew Watt, Ashley Watt, Dan Patrick, Dawn Buckingham, Donald Trump, Elections, George P. Bush, Ken Paxton, Pete Flores, Raul Reyes, Rick Perry, Sarah Stogner, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas 24th Senate District, Tim Westley, Wayne Christian
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 4 Comments »
Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022
There were no real surprises in the results from yesterdays primaries in Texas, at least on the Republican side.
As predicted, incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott cruised to victory with over 66% of the vote, and steams into the general election against Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke (who slaughtered his no-name opponents with over 91% of the Democratic primary vote) with nearly $50 million cash on hand. Allen West and Don Huffines finished distant second and third, with just over and under 12% of the vote.
Incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick pulled in just under 75% of the vote, with all four challengers in single digits.
Incumbent Republican Attorney General got 42.68% of the vote, and is headed into a runoff with Land Commissioner George P. Bush at 22.7%, with Eva Guzman and Louie Gohmert each garnering just over 17%. Basically, all Paxton has to do is grab half of Gohmert’s voters in the runoff, which should be easily doable.
Incumbent Republican Agriculture Commissioner Side Miller garnered 58.5% of the vote, holding off a spirited challenge from James White with 31%. He’ll face Democrat Susan Hays in the general.
Dawn Buckingham garnered 41.3% of the vote, and is headed to a runoff as the overwhelming favorite against Tim Westly, who eked out 14.7% of the vote.
Incumbent Republican Comptroller Glenn Hegar cruised to victory with 81.6% of the vote.
Incumbent Republican Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian was unable to avoid a runoff, garnering 47.1% of the vote, and will now face Sarah Stogner, whose claim to fame is evidently appearing semi-nude in a campaign Tik-Tok. Expect Christian to make short work of her in every demographic except guys who send money via OnlyFans.
The biggest surprise to me among the Democratic primary results was Joe Jaworski (who I expected to cruise to victory) coming in a distant second (19.6%) behind Rochelle Garza (43.2%), an open borders Social justice Warrior type. This is probably just a case of me not paying attention to that race (the last few months have been a bear).
Mark Loewe beat loon Robert Morrow for the Republican nomination for State Board of Education District 5. Gonna be an uphill struggle against Democratic incumbent Rebecca Bell-Metereau for an Austin-centered district.
A Republican runoff between Pete Flores (46%) and Raul Reyes (32.8%) in Texas Senate District 24. Kathy Jones-Hospod is the Democratic nominee.
(Note: I’ve had the Texan News results page crash on me several times…and take out other Firefox windows (like YouTube videos) as a side effect. The Texas Tribune page is an alternate source for results.
Tags:2022 Attorney General's Race, 2022 Election, 2022 Lt. Governor's Race, 2022 Texas Governor's Race, Allen West, Dan Patrick, Dawn Buckingham, Don Huffines, Eva Guzman, George P. Bush, Glenn Hegar, Joe Jaworski, Kathy Jones-Hospod, Ken Paxton, Louie Gohmert, Mark Loewe, Pete Flores, Raul Reyes, Republicans, Robert Morrow, Rochelle Garza, Sarah Stogner, Sid Miller, Texas, Wayne Christian
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Wednesday, May 25th, 2016
A few quick results from last night’s runoffs:
Wayne Christian defeated Gary Gates in the Republican Railroad Commissioner’s runoff, despite Gates dropping considerable money into a dishonest, scorched earth direct mailer campaign against Christian. That makes Gates 0-7 running for office.
Wayne Christian will face Democrat Grady Yarbrough (as well as Libertarian Mark Miller and Green Party candidate Martina Salinas) in November.
Mary Lou Keel defeated Ray Wheless and Scott Walker (not that Scott Walker) defeated Brent Webster in Republican Court of Criminal Appeals runoffs. Keel will face Republican-turned-Democrat incumbent Lawrence Meyers in November, while Walker will face Democrat Betsy Johnson.
Bryan Hughes stomped David Simpson in the Texas Senate District 1 race. Hughes was backed by both Ted Cruz and Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. Hughes has no Democratic Party opposition in November.
In Williamson County runoffs, Laura Barker defeated Warren Oliver Waterman for County Court at Law #2 and Landy Warren defeated Donna Parker for County Commissioner Precinct 1. Warren will face Democrat Terry Cook in November, while Baker faces no Democratic Party opponent.
Tags:2016, Brent Webster, Bryan Hughes, Dan Patrick, Democrats, Gary Gates, Grady Yarbrough, Lawrence Meyers, Mary Lou Keel, Ray Wheless, Republicans, runoff, Scott Walker (Texas), Ted Cruz, Texas, Wayne Christian
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Friday, May 20th, 2016
Someone has to talk about Gary Gates’ dishonest direct mailer campaign against Wayne Christian in the Railroad Commissioner runoff, and since I’m a Texas blogger, and since early voting ends today, I guess that someone is me.
Gates has attempted to paint Christian as some sort of liberal, accusing him of “Obama-style politics” and of wanting to Texas into “Texifornia.” In fact, Christian has a long record as a very conservative state legislator who repeatedly received high marks in conservative rankings and who has racked up an enviable number of conservative endorsements:
While Christian garnered endorsements from conservatives like Michael Williams and Donna Campbell, Gates has been endorsed by liberal Republicans like Byron Cook and Charlie Geren. Says radio host Robert Pratt: “He’s endorsed and backed by the worst of Speaker Straus’ top leadership team.”
Indeed, Gates’ direct mail campaign has been so fundamentally dishonest that I wonder if former David Dewhurst staffers have been behind it.
I’ve been suspicious of Gary Gates since his “Texas Citizens Coalition” newsletter highlighted Straus-supporting legislators like Giovanni Capriglione, Tan Parker, Drew Springer and Jason Villalba. His dishonest scorched-earth flyer campaign is yet another reason why Texans should vote for Wayne Christian for Railroad Commissioner today or May 24.
(In other Railroad Commission news, the The Dallas Morning News didn’t endorse anyone in the Republican runoff, but did mange to endorse…Grady Yarbrough.)
Tags:2016 Election, Elections, Gary Gates, Grady Yarbrough, Joe Straus, Railroad Commission, Republicans, Robert Pratt, Texas, Wayne Christian
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Friday, February 26th, 2016
I’m running out of election season! So here are some quick and dirty Republican Primary recommendations (beyond the very obvious one of Ted Cruz for President) on the last day of early voting:
Statewide Races
Railroad Commissioner: Wayne Christian: Christian is a solid conservative. Gary Gates, who has poured a lot of money into the race (if the number of flyers I’ve received is any indication) concerns me mainly because his Texas Citizens Coalition seems to lean heavily on the Joe Straus wing of the party. (Noted for the record: former senate candidate Grady Yarbrough is one of three candidates running on the Democratic side.)
Texas Supreme Court Place 3: Michael Massengale: Debra Lehrmann isn’t horrible, but Massengale has earned the endorsements of Michael Quinn Sullivan and Texans for Lawsuit Reform.
Texas Supreme Court Place 5: Paul Green: See this post for all the reasons to choose Paul Green over Rick Green.
Texas Supreme Court Place 9: Eve Guzman: Guzman has done a solid job and her opponent has long ties to the Democratic Party (his father was a Democratic state rep) and he was fined by the state bar for actions that “unnecessarily increased the costs and burdens of litigation.”
Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Place 2: Ray Wheless: This recommendation is based mainly on the impressive number of conservative endorsements he’s racked up.
Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Place 5: Steve Smith: Mainly voting for Smith due to his role in litigating Hopwood.
Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Place 6: incumbent Michael Keasler: Keasler is a lifetime Republican and his opponent Richard Davis has run a sketchy, all-but-invisible campaign.
Williamson County Races
Sheriff: William “Bill” Kelberlau: Mainly based on Cahnman’s write-up on the race. “Bill Kelberlau is running to be a constitutional sheriff.” I may not agree with Cahnman on everything, but he’s not a squish. I was willing to consider Robert Chody (who has a strong lineup of Republican endorsements), but then he went and touted his Statesman endorsement on one of his flyers…
District Attorney: Shawn Dick*: I’ve been leery of Jana Duty since at least her 2012 race, and her obvious support from Democrats and unions in that race. Cahnman, again, has more on Duty. And even though Holly Hansen hasn’t updated her site since she moved to Harris County, she has lots of good (which is to say bad) information on Duty as well.
Constable Precinct 1: Vinnie Cherrone: Wins by default as his opponent, Leo Enriquez, has been invisible during the campaign.
County Commissioner Precinct 1: Landy Warren: The candidates were close, and this is one case where Warren emphasizing conservative themes in his flyers pushed me over the top.
*Corrected. I had originally reversed his names, inadvertently making him into the star of Springtime for Hitler in The Producers…
There’s a couple of Williamson judicial races where I’m still seeking additional information, but I don’t want to delay putting this up any longer.
Remember to vote either today or Tuesday!
Addition Resources:
Guide from the Texas League of Women Voters
Community ImpactVoter Guide
Tags:2016 Election, Debra Lehrmann, Dick Shawn, Eve Guzman, Gary Gates, Grady Yarbrough, Michael Keasler, Michael Massengale, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Paul Green, Ray Wheless, Republicans, Robert Chody, Steve Smith, Texas, Wayne Christian, William "Bill" Kelberlau, Williamson County
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 2 Comments »
Tuesday, May 27th, 2014
According to the latest results.
Both Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton were hovering around 64-65% of the vote, which is pretty decisive.
Ryan Sitton is currently winning with 58% to Wayne Christian’s 42% for Railroad Commissioner. That’s a mild surprise to me, but down ballot races are harder to predict, and I did notice a late direct mail push from Sitton.
Sid Miller is currently leading Tommy Merritt 54-46% for Agriculture Commissioner, but they haven’t called the race yet.
On the Democrat’s side, David Alameel beat Larouchite Keisha Rogers fairly handily, 72% to 28%, for the chance to be slaughtered by John Cornyn in the Senate race. And Kinky Friedman appears to have lost to non-campaigning candidate Jim Hogan 55%-45% for Agriculture Commissioner. As to why, maybe Texas Democrats hate one or more of: Marijuana, Jews, country music singers, mystery writers, guys who smoke cigars, or guys named Kinky. Or they still hate him for running as an independent in 2006. Or they like guys with nice Anglo names. Take your pick.
More tomorrow (maybe).
Tags:2014 Attorney General's Race, 2014 Election, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, 2014 Senate Race, Dan Branch, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst, John Cornyn, Ken Paxton, Kinky Friedman, Ryan Sitton, Sid Miller, Texas, Wayne Christian
Posted in Democrats, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Monday, September 9th, 2013
Former Rep. Wayne Christian has joined the Railroad commissioner race.
Christian lost his seat to the Joe Straus-backed Chris Paddie in the Republican primary after losing 80% of his district in redistricting. Christian is already generating some grassroots enthusiasm in a crowded Railroad Commissioner field that already includes Malachi Boyuls, who has drawn some heavyweight support himself, and state Rep. Stefani Carter.
Tags:2014 Election, Malachi Boyuls, Railroad Commission, Republicans, Stefani Carter, Texas, Wayne Christian
Posted in Elections, Texas | No Comments »