Posts Tagged ‘Texas House District 136’
Tuesday, February 18th, 2020
Early voting in Texas starts today!
Here are some links for research:
The League of Women Voters.
Empower Texans endorsements.
Governor Greg Abbott’s endorsements.
Williamson County early voting locations.
Travis County voting locations.
A Tale of Two Rockeys.
And here are the websites for a few Republican candidates in down-ballot races:
Ryan Sitton, who’s running for the Railroad Commission.
Gina Parker, running for Texas Criminal Court of Appeals Place 3.
Mike Guevara, who’s running to take back Texas State Representative District 136 from John Bucy III.
Tags:2020 Election, 2020 Presidential Race, Austin, Elections, Judicial Elections, Mike Guevara, Primary, PSA, Railroad Commission, Republicans, Texas, Texas House District 136
Posted in Austin, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Thursday, November 15th, 2018
This is going to be a “glass half empty” kind of post, so let’s start out enumerating all the positives for Texas Republicans from the 2018 midterms:
Ted Cruz, arguably the face of conservatism in Texas, won his race despite a zillion fawning national profiles of an opponent that not only outspent him 2-1, but actually raised more money for a Senate race than any candidate in the history of the United States. All that, and Cruz still won.
Every statewide Republican, both executive and judicial, won their races.
Despite long being a target in a swing seat, Congressmen Will Hurd won reelection.
Republicans still hold majorities in the their U.S. congressional delegation, the Texas House and the Texas Senate.
By objective standards, this was a good election for Republicans. But by subjective standards, this was a serious warning shot across the bow of the party. After years of false starts and dead ends, Democrats finally succeeded in turning Texas slightly purple.
Next let’s list the objectively bad news:
Ted Cruz defeated Beto O’Rourke by less than three points, the worst showing of any topline Republican candidate since Republican Clayton Williams lost the Governor’s race to Democratic incumbent Ann Richards in 1990, and the worst senate result for a Texas Republican since Democratic incumbent Lloyd Bentsen beat Republican challenger Beau Boulter in 1988.
O’Rourke’s 4,024,777 votes was not only more than Hillary Clinton received in Texas in 2016, but was more than any Democrat has ever received in any statewide Texas race, ever. That’s also more than any Texas statewide candidate has received in a midterm election ever until this year. It’s also almost 2.5 times what 2014 Democratic senatorial candidate David Alameel picked up in 2014.
The O’Rourke campaign managed to crack long-held Republican strongholds in Tarrant (Ft. Worth), Williamson, and Hays counties, which had real down-ballot effects, and continue their recent success in Ft. Bend (Sugar Land) and Jefferson (Beaumont) counties.
Two Republican congressmen, Pete Sessions and John Culberson, lost to Democratic challengers. Part of that can be put down to sleepwalking incumbents toward the end of a redistricting cycle, but part is due to Betomania having raised the floor for Democrats across the state.
Two Republican incumbent state senators, Konni Burton of District 10 and Don Huffines of District 16, lost to Democratic challengers. Both were solid conservatives, and losing them is going to hurt.
Democrats picked up 12 seats in the Texas house, including two in Williamson County: John Bucy III beating Tony Dale (my representative) in a rematch of 2016’s race in House District 136, and James Talarico beating Cynthia Flores for Texas House District 52, the one being vacated by the retiring Larry Gonzalez.
Democratic State representative Ron Reynolds was reelected despite being in prison, because Republicans didn’t bother to run someone against him. This suggests the state Republican Party has really fallen down on the job when it comes to recruiting candidates.
In fact, by my count, that was 1 of 32 state house districts where Democrats faced no Republican challenger.
Down-ballot Republican judges were slaughtered in places like Harris and Dallas counties.
All of this happened with both the national and Texas economies humming along at the highest levels in recent memory.
There are multiple reasons for this, some that other commentators covered, and others they haven’t.
For years Republicans have feasted on the incompetence of the Texas Democratic Party and their failure to entice a topline candidate to enter any race since Bob Bullock retired. Instead they’ve run a long string of Victor Moraleses and Tony Sanchezes and seemed content to lose, shrug their shoulders and go “Oh well, it’s Texas!” Even candidates that should have been competative on paper, like Ron Kirk, weren’t. (And even those Democrats who haven’t forgotten about Bob Kreuger, who Ann Richards tapped to replace Democratic Senator Lloyd Bentsen when the latter resigned to become Bill Clinton’s Treasury Secretary, getting creamed 2-1 by Kay Baily Hutchison in the 1993 special election, would sure like to.) Fortunately for Texas Republicans, none of the non-Beto names bandied about (like the Castro brother) seem capable of putting them over the top (but see the “celebrity” caveat below).
Likewise, Republicans have benefited greatly from a fundraising advantage that comes from their lock on incumbency. Democrats couldn’t raise money because they weren’t competitive, and weren’t competitive in part because they couldn’t raise money. All that money the likes of Battleground Texas threw in may finally be having an effect.
More on how Democrats have built out their organization:
Under the hood, the damage was significant. There are no urban counties left in the state that support Republicans, thanks to O’Rourke winning there. The down-ballot situation in neighboring Dallas County was an electoral massacre, as was the situation in Harris County.
“This election was clearly about work and not the wave,” [Democratic donor Amber] Mostyn said. “We have been doing intense work in Harris County for five cycles and you can see the results. Texas is headed in the right direction and Beto outperformed and proved that we are on the right trajectory to flip the state.”
“Last night we saw the culmination of several years of concentrated effort by the left — and the impact of over $100 million spent — in their dream to turn Texas blue again. Thankfully, they failed to win a single statewide elected office,” Texas Republican Party chair James Dickey said in a statement. “While we recognize our victories, we know we have much work to do — particularly in the urban and suburban areas of the state.”
The idea that Trump has weakened Republican support in the suburbs seems to have some currency, based on the Sessions and Culberson losses.
That effect is especially magnified in Williamson and Hayes counties, given that they host bedroom communities for the ever-more-liberal Austin.
Rick Perry vs. The World ended a year-long hibernation to pin the closeness of the race on Cruz’s presidential race. He overstates the case, but he has a point. Other observations:
3. What if Beto had spent his money more wisely? All that money on yard signs and on poorly targeted online ads (Beto spent lots of money on impressions that I saw and it wasn’t all remnant ads) wasn’t cheap. If I recall correctly, Cruz actually spent more on TV in the final weeks, despite Beto raising multiples of Cruz’s money. Odd.
4. Getting crazy amounts of money from people who dislike Ted Cruz was never going to be the hard part. Getting crazy good coverage from the media who all dislike Ted Cruz was never going to be hard part.
Getting those things and then not believing your own hype…well if you are effing Beto O’Rourke, then that is the hard part.
5. Beto is probably the reason that some Dems won their elections. But let’s not forget that this is late in the redistricting cycle where districts are not demographically what they were when they were drawn nearly a decade ago.
For all the fawning profiles of O’Rourke, he was nothing special. He was younger than average, theoretically handsomer than average (not a high bar in American politics), and willing to do the hard work of statewide campaigning. He was not a bonafide superstar, the sort of personality like Jesse Ventura, Arnold Schwarzenegger or Donald Trump that can come in from the outside and completely reorder the political system. If one of those ran as a Democrat statewide in Texas, with the backing and resources O’Rourke had, they probably win.
A lack of Green Party candidates, due to them failing to meet the 5% vote threshold in 2016, may have also had a small positive effect on Democrat vote totals in the .5% to 1% range.
None of the controversies surrounding three statewide Republican candidates (Ken Paxton’s lingering securities indictment, Sid Miller’s BBQ controversy, or George P. Bush’s Alamo controversy) seemed to hurt them much. Paxton’s may have weighed him down the most, since he only won by 3.6%, while George P. Bush won with the second highest margin of victory behind Abbott. Hopefully this doesn’t set up a nightmare O’Rourke vs. Bush Senate race in 2020.
Texas Republicans just went through a near-death experience, but managed to survive. Is this level of voting the new norm for Democrats, or an aberration born of Beto-mania? My guess is probably somewhere in-between. It remains to be seen how it all shakes out during the sound and fury of a Presidential year. And the biggest factor is out of the Texas Republican Party’s control: a cyclical recession is inevitable at some point, the only question is when and how deep.
Tags:2018 Election, 2018 Texas Gubernatorial Race, 2018 Texas Senate Race, 32nd Congressional District, 7th Congressional District, Austin, Beau Boulter, Beto O'Rourke, Dallas, Don Huffines, Elections, fundraising, Harris County, Hays County, James Talarico, Jefferson County, John Bucy, John Culberson, Konni Burton, Pete Sessions, Ron Reynolds, Tarrant County, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Democratic Party, Texas House District 136, Texas House District 52, Tony Dale, Williamson County
Posted in Austin, Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Tuesday, May 29th, 2012
Voting Day!
After spending the bulk of my time on the Texas senate race, I’ve spent the last day or so trying to get a handle on some down-ballot races. So here’s who I’m voting for in contested races, starting at the top and providing (very) brief explanations. Hopefully this will be of use to other conservative Republican voters looking for information at the last minute. (Hey, people are busy!)
United States Senator: Ted Cruz, for the many reason I list here.
United State Representative, District 31: Incumbent John Carter. Though not perfect (he was late getting on the anti-SOPA bandwagon), I like Rep. Carter personally, and he’s generally been a very good (and very conservative) Representative.
Railroad Commissioner: I’m leaning toward Roland Sledge, who’s solidly conservative, if a bit goofy. Former Rep. Warren Chisum is also a solid choice. I don’t trust Christi Craddick, who seems to be running on her father’s reputation.
Railroad Commissioner, Unexpired Term: Possibly the toughest race to pick, as both incumbent Barry Smitherman and Greg Parker strike me as very solid conservative choices, and each has picked up some Tea Party endorsements. I lean slightly toward Smitherman based on his impressive array of endorsements.
Texas Supreme Court Place 2: Incumbent Don Willett, a solid conservative with solid endorsements.
Texas Supreme Court Place 2: Incumbent David Medina, endorsed by Texans for Lawsuit Reform.
State Board of Education, District 10: Jeff Fleece, based on endorsements from Holly Hansen and YCT.
Texas State Senate District 5: Charles Schwertner, for the reasons I list here.
Texas House District 136: Tony Dale, who has picked up a solid list of conservative endorsements.
Williamson County District Attorney: John Bradley. The fact that Jana Duty has made so much hay from one trial makes me quite suspicious of her. Once again, Holly Hansen provides needed insight on the race here, here, and here.
Williamson County Attorney: Dee Hobbs, mainly because Jeff Maurice ran as a Democrat as late as 2009.
Williamson County Tax Assessor Collector: Incumbent Deborah M. Hunt. When your opponent can’t be bothered to put up more than a Facebook page…
Williamson County Sherrif: Incumbent James R. Wilson, who has done a good job. His opponent sounds like Grandpa Simpson yelling at a cloud…
425th District Judge: Incumbent Mark Silverstone, based on Rick Perry’s endorsement.
Williamson County Commissioner Precinct 1: Incumbent Lisa Birkman, for reasons outlined here. Holly Hansen also provides compelling arguments why you should favor Birkman over Seitsinger here, and here.
Other Sources of Information
Williamson County Ballot
The List of Young Conservatives of Texas Endorsements
Texans for Lawsuit Reform Endorsements
Texans for Fiscal Responsibility Endorsements
Tags:2012 Election, Barry Smitherman, Charles Schwertner, Christi Craddick, Crime, Deborah M. Hunt, Dee Hobbs, Elections, Greg Parker, Holly Hansen, James R. Wilson, Jana Duty, Jeff Maurice, John Bradley, John Carter, Lisa Birkman, Mark Silverstone, Roland Sledge, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas House District 136, Texas State Senate District 5, Tony Dale, Warren Chisum, Williamson County
Posted in Crime, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Monday, May 28th, 2012
If you’re wondering what this election year is like in Williamson County, I’ve saved all the political flyers I’ve gotten. As usual, click to embiggen.
The most mail I’ve gotten has been for the Lisa Birkman vs. Lee Ann Seitsinger race (which is going to be very close), and the Seitsinger piece comparing Birkman to Obama is probably the most ridiculous attack mailer I’ve received (unless I get one from Dewhurst pushing the amnesty lie tomorrow). Next would probably be Jana Duty vs. John Bradley for the Williamson County District Attorney race, and the State Senate District 5 (Charles Schwertner vs. Ben Bius) and House District 136 (Tony Dale vs. Paul Matthews) all ranking ahead of the U.S. Senate race. I don’t think I’ve received a single flyer from Tom Leppert or Craig James.
Tags:2012 Election, Ben Bius, Charles Schwertner, David Dewhurst, Elections, Jana Duty, Lee Ann Seitsinger, Lisa Birkman, pics, Republicans, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas House District 136, Texas Senate Race, Texas State Senate District 5, Williamson County
Posted in Austin, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
