Posts Tagged ‘Softbank’

“A Mass Extinction Event For Startups”

Thursday, January 25th, 2024

The Biden recession and other trends made 2023 a horrible year for startups.

  • “Big startups are shutting down. According to PitchBook, more than 3,000 private venture backed startups failed in the last year.”
  • “Of the startups raising money, 19% were funded at a lower valuation than in prior funding rounds.”
  • “38% of VCs disappeared from dealmaking last year and more than a quarter of a million workers at tech companies were laid off over the same period.”
  • “US corporate bankruptcy filings closed out 2023 with the most filings since 2010. The year has been described as a mass extinction event for startups in the press.”
  • Some of the startup failures Boyle namechecks (Hyperloop, Bird) seemed like stupid ideas from the git-go. “Bird the electric scooter rental company—which was also supposed to reinvent public transportation—filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It was the fastest startup to ever land a billion-dollar valuation, and at its peak was worth two and a half billion dollars. It was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange in September after failing to maintain a market cap of above $15 million dollars for 30 consecutive days.”
  • “Who would have thought that renting scooters to drunk people for a dollar (who would then throw them in a canal on their way home) would be a money losing business? Bird ran up more than $1.6bn in net losses since 2018 before finally running out of money.”
  • Smile Direct Club: $8.9 billion valuation at 2019 IPO. “The stock fell in value over time as the company proved to be unprofitable year after year. The company shut down last month $900 million dollars in debt.”
  • One I never heard of: “The health tech startup Olive AI which reached a peak valuation of $4 billion dollars in 2020 driven by the need for automation in healthcare during the pandemic. The company raised over 900 million dollars from investors. In 2022 the company began laying off staff citing ‘tough economic conditions.’ The company was allegedly trying to raise money when it abruptly shut down in November. Going out of business in 2023 was particularly surprising for a company with AI in its name.” Indeed, AI seems to be the current space where stupid money goes to die.
  • Another one I never heard of: Zume.

    No.

    “Zume – the robot pizza delivery company which had raised $445 million dollars in VC funding, the majority of which came from SoftBank in 2018 at a two and a quarter billion-dollar valuation, shut down this summer.” Stupid, but at least I can see why California companies would invest heavily in food automation with that $16 (and rising) minimum wage.

  • WeWork “set out to revolutionize office real estate – by having an app – which I’m told didn’t work very well, and free beer on tap filed for bankruptcy in November.” I’ve covered WeWork previously.
  • “WeWork and its founder Adam Neumann were the poster boys of how a blitzscaled business model led by a charismatic founder could apply a veneer of technology to an old business idea and attract venture capital funding to achieve a multibillion dollar valuation.”
  • “At its peak, WeWork was valued in private markets at $47 billion dollars. Softbank alone invested 16 billion dollars into the company. Masayoshi Son, SoftBank’s founder, allegedly invested his first $4.4 billion dollars in the shared office space company after Neumann gave him a 12-minute tour of a WeWork in 2016. With such a short tour, it’s unlikely that the free beer even had an impact.”
  • “Softbank – run by Masayoshi Son (Japan’s Cathie Wood) was one of the biggest startup investors in the last decade. They invested in all sorts of non tech companies that were made to look like tech in order to attain a sky-high valuation. According to Bloomberg, the SoftBank Vision Fund alone lost $53 billion dollars over the last two years on startup investments.”
  • “We have seen a very difficult period for startups over the last year or two, but it comes in the wake of probably the best period for VC backed startups in decades. During the decade from 2011 to 2021 VC investment in private start-ups grew more than sevenfold, from 46 billion dollars in 2011 to $345 billion dollars in 2021.”
  • “In 2022 when the federal reserve began hiking interest rates, this money began drying up as investors lost their taste for unprofitable, but high growth, investments.”
  • That investment boom was driven by two things: Low interest rates and “a recent history of profitable exits from VC funded startups like Facebook, Google, Whatsapp and Snap meant that investors were suddenly paying a lot of attention to tech startups – hoping to repeat those successes.”
  • “Venture capital went from being a small asset class run out of offices on Sand Hill Road that had burned investors in the dot com bubble to a massive global asset class like hedge funds or private equity.”
  • The Flu Manchu lockdowns brought investment from “‘working from home’ companies like Zoom and Peloton.” I always thought of Peloton as a lifestyle luxury brand.
  • “People were using apps like Uber and DoorDash for food delivery, and booking rentals on Airbnb to get out of big cities now that they no longer had to turn up in the office.”
  • “While the prior wave of profitable high growth tech stocks had been (one way or another) in the advertising space, or in businesses like cloud computing, the new wave of startups had untested business models—gig economy businesses which attracted a lot of competition and might never flip to profitability—or robot-made pizza which would be cooked on route to a customer’s home.”
  • “A lot of the VC’s possibly believed in many of the questionable investments that have since gone bust, but a venture capital fund isn’t really there to hold on to these investments until the underlying business flips to profitability. They invest at the idea stage with the goal of selling these businesses on to the public when the hype is at its peak.”
  • “They did manage to unload a number of the biggest flops like WeWork – but not at the valuations they were hoping for, and have found themselves holding the bag on a lot of investments that they bought into at peak valuation.”
  • “The huge valuations many of these companies were attaining in the private market may have been more of a function of how much money had flowed into the private tech startup market since 2011 rather than necessarily reflecting the quality of these companies and their business models.”
  • “According to Erin Griffith at The New York Times, $27.2 billion dollars in VC funding had gone into the 3,200 venture-backed companies that went out of business in the first 11 months of 2023.” And that’s just the firms trackable on PitchBook. The true total is almost certainly higher.
  • “That 27.2 billion dollar number excluded many of the largest startup failures that went public, like WeWork, or that found buyers at much lower prices than VC investors had invested at.”
  • “The hype around AI that we have seen in the last year has masked a lot of the losses in the tech space.”
  • “Meta was up 178 percent last year due to a combination of AI hype and cost cutting within their core business. This covers up the 46.5 billion dollars lost on the Metaverse – which no one will venture into, for fear that they run into Mark Zuckerberg.” I strongly suspect that a lot of those VR losses are actually money siphoned off for something else.
  • Despite this, stocks like Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia have hit all-time highs.
  • “One of the negative economic effects of startup shutdowns is that in such an environment it becomes harder for founders with good business ideas to get funding.”
  • “According to PitchBook, the number of active investors in US Venture Capital, which was defined as firms that made two or more deals in the last year, plummeted by 38% in the first three quarters of 2023 compared to the same period the prior year.”
  • Many of the startup failures were zombie companies, those that should have failed earlier but were kept alive by VC money and low interest rates.
  • “No one wants to see firms going out of business, especially startups which are often the most exciting and innovative firms, but if a business model makes no sense, or only works in a zero-interest rate environment, then its disappearance means that capital can again flow in the direction of the best businesses.”

    • (Previously.)

    The startup bust has direct negative effects on me personally, as I’m still between technical writing positions, and a lot of the jobs I’ve gotten over the past two decades have been with startups.





    Tags:, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Economics, video | 13 Comments »

    Nvidia To Buy Arm

    Tuesday, September 15th, 2020

    Fabless chipmaker Nvidia, famed for their graphic chips and bitcoin mining rigs, has agreed to buy Arm (formerly ARM) Holdings from current owner Softbank for $40 billion.

    Arm had $1.9 billion in revenue in 2019, and over 22 billion chips shipped with Arm IP in 2019.

    Arm’s specialty is licensing it chip design IP to other manufacturers to incorporate into their own designs. Arm has a well-earned reputation for producing designs that squeezes the most performance per watt out of a given die sized. Think of it as an all-purpose CPU mix-and-match design kit, allowing companies to quickly design custom chips incorporating their own special sauce without reinventing the wheel for every JTAG port and ring oscillator. Arm-derived designs have come to completely dominate mobile devices, and Apple, who had previously used custom cores incorporating Arm IP into their iPhone and iPad lines, just this year announced that they’re moving from Intel to an Arm-based custom chip for their Macintosh PC line.

    The great thing about Arm is that all they make is money. They license their IP at (for most customers) relatively modest per-chip cost, and most (possibly all) the major chip foundries have licensed their IP for one thing or another. So have most Integrated Device Manufacturers (i.e., chip companies that still run their own wafer fabs, an increasingly pricey proposition), including rival Intel, which has dominated PC CPUs for about an eon of Internet time.

    Nvidia currently uses both TSMC and Samsung for foundry partners, both of which have Arm licenses.

    A lot of the microwave instant-analysis of “Oh, now Nvidia gets more of that sweet Apple business” is probably greatly overstated, and is at best a minor consideration. The sort of highly parallelized vector processing that Nvidia specializes in is increasingly being used in IT centers and high performance computing for a wide variety of tasks, their GPUs either supplementing or entirely replacing traditional CPUs. Nvidia continues to cram an ever-higher number of CUDA cores (designed for highly parallelized tasks) into its chips. Fully integrating Arm’s renowned power-savings techniques into each of those cores, and being the first to take advantage of that technology, is potentially huge.

    All mergers are fought with peril, but if Nvidia pulls off the integration, Intel could be facing the biggest challenge to its dominance since PowerPC and DEC Alpha were pushing it in the late 1990s.

    Tags:, , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »