(I would like to claim the title of this post has particular meaning (like a clever allusion to machine politics), but really it’s only there because I’ve already used “Electric Boogaloo” too many times.)
Silly me! I thought we might have final Iowa Democratic caucus results by now! We don’t. Last night, the halted the count with 97% of precincts reporting:
The Iowa Democratic caucuses are coming down to a photo finish as only one-tenth of a percentage point separates Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders with 97% of precincts reported.
The former South Bend, Indiana mayor holds 26.2% of state delegate equivalents as of 12:50 a.m. EST on Thursday, the traditional unit to measure a winner that translates to Democratic National Convention nominating delegates, while the Vermont senator has 26.1%.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden remain in third and fourth place with 18.2% and 15.8% of state delegate equivalents, respectively.
Buttigieg, 38, declared victory early on Monday night based on his campaign’s internal figures, peeving his rivals. The first wave of results showed Buttigieg 2 points ahead of the Vermont senator, but Sanders, 78, declared his own victory on Tuesday by pointing to his lead in the popular vote. Most recent results show that Sanders has support from 44,753 caucus-goers on final alignment, a 2,518-vote lead on Buttigieg’s 42,235.
It appears that @PeteButtigieg will win the #IACaucus delegate race but lose the popular vote to @BernieSanders.
I demand intellectual honesty from the honorable Mayor in refusing all delegates from Iowa as he is on the record opposing the Electoral College. #Buttigieg2020 https://t.co/7WkboosXCF
— Allan Bourdius (@UnrealAllan) February 6, 2020
Unexpectedly!
For some reason, Decision Desk has different numbers. They have it 42,672 for Sanders and 36,718 for Buttigieg. The full counts also have the withdrawn John Delaney getting nine votes, Deval Patrick 49, and Michael Bennet 146, all below “other.”
Not only is extended counting time unbelievable (five old ladies at card tables could have counted every vote by hand by now), but the snafu unfolded in precisely the manner a conspiracy theorist would suggest: To boost Joe Biden (who may end up with no delegates) and Pete Buttigieg (by leaking early counts that just happened to show him in the lead) at the expense of Bernie Sanders (to avoid giving him additional momentum, since he looks extremely likely to win New Hampshire).
Speaking of conspiracy theories, the more we learn about the app meant to count votes, the fishier it seems:
The mobile software developed to tally votes in the Iowa Democratic caucus yesterday has taken center stage in an ongoing controversy over who exactly created it and why it was deployed in such a sloppy state. Now, thanks to Motherboard, we know what the app looks like, and the error screens that specific precinct leaders encountered as they attempted to call in vote totals last night.
The app was created by a company called Shadow Inc., a for-profit software firm that says its mission is to “build political power for the progressive movement by developing affordable and easy-to-use tools for teams and budgets of any size.”
The New York Times reported that many precinct chiefs had trouble simply downloading the app, and Motherboard’s screenshots give hints as to why that might be. The app was not deployed through traditional app stores or even sideloaded using an enterprise certificate. Instead, it was deployed through mobile testing platforms, including Apple’s TestFlight and a similar service that services both iOS and Android called TestFairy. Both platforms are for apps that are not yet finalized.
Testing platforms are common for mobile apps, and are one of many ways in which independent app developers and large software makers can deploy beta software without going through the sometimes rigorous App Store and Play Store review processes. This is primarily to let developers squash bugs and ensure the app can run on a variety of different devices, some of which may be using outdated operating systems and powered by older, less powerful components that may render the app sluggish or just plain inoperable.
In this case, however, it looks like Shadow used test platforms for the app’s public distribution. Motherboard obtained screenshots showing a TestFairy download link for Android, while The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Shadow used TestFlight for iOS devices.
Installing software through a test platform or sideloading onto your device manually both come with security risks, as app store review processes are designed to discover whether a piece of software is hiding malware or does something behind the scenes it’s not supposed to. In the event you do sideload an app or try installing an unofficial version, your smartphone typically warns you of the risks and asks if you want to proceed. It’s also a less stable model for deploying software at scale, which might explain the difficulty precinct chiefs had in downloading the program.
The screenshot from Motherboard also shows that the app was distributed using the TestFairy platform’s free tier and not its enterprise one. That means Shadow didn’t even pony up for the TestFairy plan that comes with single sign-on authentication, unlimited data retention, and end-to-end encryption. Instead, it looks like the company used the version of TestFairy anyone can try for free, which deletes any app data after 30 days and limits the number of test users that can access the app to 200.
So Shadow committed fraud, all right, it’s just a matter of whether they were intentionally screwing voters with an app that changed vote totals, or screwing the Iowa Democratic Party with a shoddy, improperly tested app. Arguing for the incompetence angle is that stuff like (using the free app version rather than the pricey enterprise version) happens in the startup world all the time. Arguing for active malice is the fact that the Buttigeig campaign paid for the app and that Shadow is chock-full of ex-Hillary people:
Nothing to see here folks. Move along…#CorruptDNC #DNCisCorrupt #DNCRigging https://t.co/8JzNXnBMJp
— Dino De Relentless (@DinoDRelentless) February 4, 2020
Also arguing for malice: “DHS Offered To Test Iowa Voting App, Democrats Declined.”
Bonus: There was also a glitch that briefly boosted Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer. The results were so obviously wrong that I believe the proffered explanation making the rounds (transposed spreadsheet columns). But once again
And the vote tallying snafu isn’t the only shaky business that went down in Iowa:
Watch how Buttigieg ‘randomly’ wins this coin toss pic.twitter.com/vn1FEv12l7
— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) February 4, 2020
“You are going to call and I am going to flip”
This dude flips the coin, doesn’t let anyone else check the flip and CALLS IT.
Another fucking fraudulent coin flip.
THEY ARE ALL FRAUDS. #IowaFraud https://t.co/AU80ZjBwPE
— S✪lidⒶrity For☭ver 🌹 (@ComradeStars) February 5, 2020
Remember all those coin tosses that “amazingly” went Hillary’s way in 2016? Other irregularities:
BREAKING: @IowaSOS confirms "inactive" voters kept on voting rolls. Disinfo campaign ignores federal law that requires states clean up rolls. @JudicialWatch data is correct. Best info: Iowa has 8 counties with more names on rolls than eligible voters. https://t.co/RrlSAJLmuM https://t.co/diXrbaAH8b
— Tom Fitton (@TomFitton) February 4, 2020
Mayor Pete’s Iowa app was changing votes.
That is election fraud. Clear and simple.
CNN: pic.twitter.com/WpEKBNC8x1
— BIG STRUCTURAL CERBERUS (@lnteGritty) February 5, 2020
They fucking misreported my precinct. Bernie won 2 delegates in Polk County – Des Moines Precinct 14 in Merle Hay and we fought like hell for them. And @iowademocrats put one of our SDEs in Warren's column but correctly reported vote. #IowaCaucusDisaster #iowacaucus #iowa pic.twitter.com/L5dst7LQj1
— James Payne (@Banalization) February 5, 2020
Initially wasn’t inclined to believe the Iowa dem party deliberately sabotaged #caucus numbers to sandbag @BernieSanders. But day 3, the party is still at 71% results? WTF? This is moving well past “innocent mistakes with the app” and into something deliberate + disgusting.
— David Shuster (@DavidShuster) February 5, 2020
I’ve been resisting the idea that the Iowa debacle was driven by malice, result-manipulation and corruption rather than ineptitude and stupidity — I just hadn’t seen convincing evidence of deliberate fraud — but I’m starting to change my mind: https://t.co/4A1RxTrM5Y
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 5, 2020
I don’t know if there’s fire there, but there sure seems to be an awful lot of smoke…