Posts Tagged ‘ruble’

What Is Maintaining The Ruble-USD Band?

Monday, April 29th, 2024

I’m hardly an expert in foreign currency exchange, but something odd seems to be happening in the Russian Ruble-U.S. Dollar exchange rate.

Obviously, the ruble has lost value because of the extensive sanctions and cutoff from SWIFT following Russia’s launch of its illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine. For most of the last year, the exchange rate has bounced from a high of 75 rubles to the dollar to a low of just over 100 rubles to the dollar.

However, in the last month, the ruble-dollar exchange rate has traded within an extremely narrow band between just over 90 and just over 94 rubles to the dollar.

That’s a pretty unusual, and pretty narrow, band to be trading in. The question is who, or what, is maintaining that band. Russia could be intervening to make sure the ruble doesn’t go too much above 94, but it wouldn’t make sense for them (if they’re trying to defend the currency) to be sellers on the other side when the ruble appreciates to 90 or less per dollar. Could it be China, trying to move some of the rubles taken in bilateral trade, or some institutional investor somehow stuck with rubles for two two years, unloading them whenever it hits that peg?

But it’s not just the dollar! We see the same thing with the Pound:

And the Euro:

It even seems true of two of Russia’s remaining big trading partners. The Indian rupee:

The Chinese Renminbi/Yuan:

All seem to be trading within very narrow, oscillating bands.

Is it a data artifact? Other currency exchange sites don’t show quite as obvious oscillation, but all do show trading within that narrow band.

I don’t know what to make of it. I don’t know enough to hazard any more educated guesses than that. But someone seems to be manipulating ruble exchange rates, and I’m not sure why.

If you have any ideas, feel free to share them below.

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Posted in Economics, Foreign Policy | 9 Comments »

How Bad Off Is The Russian Ruble?

Saturday, November 4th, 2023

An important but less dramatic aspect of the Russo-Ukrainian War is just what effects the war and resulting sanctions are having on the Russian economy. It’s hard for outsiders to get a handle on just how badly the Russian economy is doing. Since Russia was a net grain and oil exporter before invading Ukraine, it’s not likely to have obvious shortages in food and fuel.

One economic proxy is exchange rates on the Russian ruble, which is now stuck right around 100 to the dollar. But as Joe Blogs explains, Russia has recently undertaken several actions that indicate the situation is worse than just the exchange rates would have you believe.

  • “The Russian authorities have now imposed additional currency controls, which restrict Western companies that sell their Russian assets from taking the proceeds in dollars and Euros. International companies that want to exit Russia now have to sell their assets in rubles, and if they insist on receiving foreign currency for their assets, they face delays or even losses on the sums that can be transferred abroad.” Obviously I have zero sympathy for any western company still doing business in Russia, as they should have extracted themselves shortly after Russia launched their illegal war of territorial aggression in 2022, but it’s hardly going to encourage the ones that remain to put more resources into their businesses there.
  • Russia first started slapping currency controls down when the ruble weakened in July, with various repatriation restrictions and limiting schemes. Also, businesses wanting to get their money out were forced to pay “a contribution to the Russian budget, which is deemed to be ‘voluntary’ but in reality is mandatory, which was recently raised from 10% to 15% of the total transaction value.” The line item on that should probably read “Vlad’s Protection Money.”
  • Plus: “The sale of any Russian assets must take place at a discount of at least 50%.” You lie down with jackals and you wake up with fleas.
  • Various other indignities visited upon foreign businesses doing Russia snipped because, really, screw those guys.
  • Then there are the foreign income controls:

    On October 11 “President Putin signed a decree mandating the reintroduction of capital controls for an undisclosed list of 43 exporting firms. The controls will last for six months, and Russia has not published the list of which companies these measures will apply to. However, they are companies in the fuel, energy, metal, chemical, timber and grain industries. Starting from October the 16th, certain Russian exporters within 60 days from the moment of receiving funds are obliged to credit their accounts in Russian banks with no less than 80% of all foreign currency received in accordance with the conditions of their export contracts. They also required within two weeks to sell on the country’s domestic market no less than 90% of foreign currency revenues credited to their accounts at Russian banks.

  • “President Putin believes that this will solve the problems with the ruble, and stated there are reasons to believe that the ruble rate is fluctuating because foreign currency earnings are not being returned in sufficient volume to mobilize the money supply on the domestic market.” Or, and here’s an alternate theory, rubles are worthless because no one inside or outside the country wants to keep them.
  • “Twelve months ago, one US dollar was trading for 61 Russian rubles, to today it’s trading for 93, which represents a fall in value of more than 50% in the last year, which is an absolute disaster from a currency perspective. The long-term value of the ruble has declined significantly.”
  • “There is absolutely no way that the Kremlin is happy with an exchange rate of 93 to 1.”
  • “Let’s not forget that the current exchange rate has only been achieved after four interest rate rises over the last three months, which means that it’s doubled in a three month period.” Russia’s interest rate is currently at 15%, which is one of the highest in the world.
  • Had Russia not intervened, “the ruble [to dollar exchange rate] could have hit 120 or 130. So Russia is currently doing everything within its powers to maintain the value of the ruble. But even after all of that effort the ruble is trading at its worst level at any time in history” save that right after the Ukraine invasion.
  • With all those rules and declining ruble values, Russian companies have less and less money to spend in international markets, which demand hard currency.

    • Even though sanctions are leaky, Russia’s crashing economy means the ruble is worth less, and Russian companies will find it harder and harder to buy things (like computer chips) on the international market that requires hard currency. And remember that that BRICS currency idea is going nowhere.

    Expect Russia’s economy to continue declining as long as Russia is still trying to occupy Ukraine.

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    Posted in Economics, Military, video | 13 Comments »

    LinkSwarm for October 6, 2023

    Friday, October 6th, 2023

    The job search continues, Buddy is healing nicely from his surgery, and we’ve finally gotten some decent cool weather. This week: More Biden border follies, social justice types getting stabbed by reality, and a double dose of doggy goodness. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • We touched on this earlier this week, but the Biden Administration has done a 180 and will allow Texas to construct a border wall.

    Department of Homeland Security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas waived 26 federal laws Wednesday, allowing border-wall construction in south Texas to resume under the Biden administration for the first time since former president Donald Trump left office.

    “There is presently an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the border of the United States in order to prevent unlawful entries into the United States in the project areas,” Mayorkas wrote in the notice.

    The new construction project will add an additional 20 miles to the border wall in Starr County, Texas, which has been reported as an area experiencing “high illegal entry.” Border Patrol’s Rio Grande Valley sector, in which the county is located, has seen over 245,000 illegal migrants enter the U.S. through that area during fiscal year 2023.

    Among the 26 laws that the DHS waived included the Clean Air Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, and Endangered Species Act, all notable environmental laws that limited further construction of the wall. The project will be funded by a congressional appropriations package from fiscal year 2019, the notice stated.

    The announcement marks a noticeable flip from President Joe Biden’s original stance on the matter. “Building a massive wall that spans the entire southern border is not a serious policy solution,” Biden said in January 2021, ending the national emergency over the border crisis when he first became president.

    While running against Trump in 2020, Biden emphatically stated, “There will not be another foot of wall constructed in my administration.”

    Of course the same overflowing conditions have been plaguing the border throughout the entirety of Biden’s term, but Democratic mayors we’re screaming for relief from their own “sanctuary city” policies until recently. Chalk up another win for Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s illegal alien busing policies.

  • Or maybe not? “Mayorkas Furiously Backpedals After Claiming ‘Acute & Immediate Need’ For Border Wall.”
  • The Biden border invasion, by the numbers.

    3 million people, more or less, were “encountered” by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which includes the Border Patrol, illegally entering the U.S. in fiscal year 2023 (which ended Sept. 30). On Mayorkas’ watch, we have set the record for the highest number of yearly illegal alien encounters in U.S. history. If those caught in 2023 formed a new city, it would the third biggest in America, behind only New York and Los Angeles.

    304,000 illegal aliens were encountered this August alone (the last month for which we have official government numbers). That’s the population of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

    75% of August’s inadmissible aliens were freely let in by President Joe Biden’s Department of Homeland Security. Mayorkas has told the press and Congress many times that the border is not open. But if a door admits three of every four people who attempt to go through it, can we consider it closed? A philosophical question, perhaps. Maybe we can settle on “mostly open,” like the “mostly dead” Wesley in the movie “The Princess Bride” or the “mostly peaceful” riots of 2020.

    Read the whole thing. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)

  • “Satanic Pedophile Extortion Cult Uncovered By FBI After NY Arrest.”

    A November 2021 arrest in Queens, New York led to the discovery of a satanic cult of pedophile extortionists known as 764, which has been linked to significant criminal activity around the globe. The organization, which goes byseveral aliases, was uncovered by the FBI while investigating alarming posts on social media made by 23-year-old Angel Almeida of Astoria, Queens, The Guardian reports.

    Almeida was flagged to the FBI by an anonymous tipster who was concerned over his social media accounts, which contained images of violence against children and animals. In one post, he expressed support for Charleston mass-murderer Dylann Roof. Another post showed him talking around with a shotgun while wearing a “a skull mask and crossed bandoliers of rifle ammunition across his chest with a flag in the background featuring an Order of Nine Angles symbol.”

    Almeida served 18 months in prison for third degree burglary in 2018, and was arrested for being a felon in possession of a firearm. He was detained in Brooklyn’s metropolitan detention center. In February 2023, federal prosecutors filed a superseding indictment on child pornography and exploitation charges related to his involvement in the cult, as well as hundreds of thousands of digital files recovered from his residence.

    In new charges, Almeida is accused of coercing a teenage girl into having sex with an older man, and convincing another girl to cut herself on camera and send it to him.

    In one post, Almeida posts “For the 2k pedophile haters,” showing his finger over the trigger guard of a Taurus handgun.

  • FBI creates “MAGA Extremist” category to target Trump supporters.
  • I haven’t kept up with internal issues in Commie dystopian Venezuela, but evidently they’re having trouble with criminal gangs.

    Early in the morning of September 20, 11,000 members of the Venezuelan security forces deployed around the notorious prison of Tocorón in Aragua state, the home base of the country’s most powerful criminal structure, the Tren de Aragua.

    “The Bolivarian Government informs that the Cacique Guaicaipuro Liberation Operation has been underway since the early hours of the morning. Its objective is to dismantle and put an end to organized crime gangs and other criminal networks operating from the Tocorón Penitentiary, to the detriment of the tranquility of the Venezuelan people,” read an official communiqué.

    Residents living near the prison were awakened by the sounds of armored vehicles speeding towards the prison, in what is one of the largest deployments ever of the Venezuelan security forces.

    The simple fact that the operation, named after a legendary native chief of the 16th Century, needed 11,000 soldiers and officials speaks to the power of the Tren de Aragua and its leader Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, alias “Niño Guerrero,” in Tocorón.

    The prison, which is in the central state of Aragua and home to some 7,000 inmates, is one of the biggest in the country.

    This operation, the first against the Tren de Aragua, and the largest of its kind to date, is a clear show of force by the Venezuelan government.

    Tocorón has long been home to the Tren de Aragua and Niño Guerrero, who ran the prison like his personal fiefdom with the blessing of the prison ministry (Ministerio de Poder Popular para el Servicio Penitenciario). Niño Guerrero, imprisoned for murder, was the “pran” of Tocorón prison, essentially the criminal warden in a system set up by the first Prison Minister Iris Varela, now Vice President of the National Assembly. The pran system saw inmates take control of several prisons across the country in exchange for maintaining order, reducing homicides, and ending jail uprisings.

    This operation might signal the end of the pran system, something suggested in the official communique of the operation, which stated that the operation was to “restore and dignify the penitentiary system.”

    The question now is whether this operation will disrupt the leadership and running of the Tren de Aragua, a transnational criminal structure with thousands of affiliates with a presence not only across Venezuela, but in Colombia, Peru, and Chile. The Tren de Aragua has projected power abroad, riding off the backs of the more than seven million Venezuelans who have fled the economic collapse and authoritarian regime presided over by President Nicolás Maduro.

    What has prompted Maduro to act after years of tolerating the criminal fiefdom of Tocorón? The Venezuelan president has long tolerated criminal structures operating in the country, both Venezuelan and Colombian, because he needed access to criminal rents to maintain the loyalty of key generals and political figures, as the state teetered on the brink of bankruptcy.

    However, since 2020, the Venezuelan security forces have moved against several defiant criminal groups, like the megabanda of Carlos Luis Revete, alias “El Koki,” and dissident elements of the rebel group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC), which set up drug trafficking infrastructure in the Venezuelan department of Apure. The operation against the ex-FARC saw the deployment of significant military forces, which ended up humiliated by the Colombian rebels, who captured eight soldiers and forced a military withdrawal. This might explain the apparent overkill with the Tocorón operation: Maduro clearly did not want any further defeats or humiliations.

  • “Philadelphia Journalist Who Mocked Concern Over Violent Crime In Democrat Cities Shot Dead In Home.”

    A left-wing Philadelphia journalist who mocked concern over rising crime in Democrat-run cities was shot to death in his home.

    Josh Kruger was shot seven times after someone entered his home, shot him at the base of his stairs, and then fled. Kruger ran outside seeking help from his neighbors and collapsed, where police found them after responding to call just before 1:30 a.m. on the 2300 block of Watkins Street.

    Kruger, 39, was rushed to the Penn Presbyterian Medical Center, where he died just before 2:15 a.m.

    No arrests have been made, and there was no sign of forced entry into the home, according to Deputy Police Commissioner Frank Vanore.

    “Either the door was open, or the offender knew how to get the door open,” he said. “We just don’t know yet.”

    Detectives believe his death may have been the result of a domestic dispute or may have been drug-related, according to three law enforcement sources with knowledge of the case. The sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation, said police investigators recovered troubling text messages between Kruger and a former partner. Investigators also recovered methamphetamine inside Kruger’s bedroom, the sources said. -Inquirer

    Snip.

    Kruger frequently mocked conservatives on X, ironically calling Dilbert creator Scott Adams “Nostradamus” on Saturday for predicting that people would be dead “within the year” of Biden’s election.

    Kruger also mocked conservatives concerned over the city’s shootings, which he said were “dropping to levels not seen in years.”

  • Speaking of social justice supporters being shot: “Social justice activist fatally stabbed in front of girlfriend in Brooklyn. The search is on for the man who fatally stabbed Ryan Carson, who dedicated his life to fighting for social justice.” And that’s how social justice says “thank you.” (Hat tip: The Other McCain.)
  • Shellyne Rodriguez, the crazy social justice warrior Manhattan College professor who threatened a reporter with a machete is getting off with no jail time, because of course she is. (Previously.) (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar was carjacked at gunpoint in Washington D.C. on Monday night.
  • “Paxton Endorses Primary Opponents of Incumbent Republicans Who Backed Impeachment. Paxton endorsed David Covey in his race against Speaker Dade Phelan and Wes Virdell in his race against Rep. Andrew Murr.”
  • Ruble hits penny parity again.
  • Starbucks is closing seven San Francisco stores. Gee, I wonder why. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ)
  • Turkish drone gets too close to U.S. troops in Syria. Turkish drone goes boom.
  • Dwight has a pretty nice post on the fallen at the Battle of Mogadishu, AKA Black Hawk Down.
  • It’s a ski jump competition, except for different types of tires. Oh, Japan, don’t ever change.
  • “Senator Feinstein Death Not Expected To Affect Re-election Campaign.”
  • Yo, dawg, we heard you like dogs, so we put your dog on your dog so your dog’s dog can dog while you dog, dawg.
  • The cutest rooster:

    (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)

    • Here’s the tip jar, if you’re so inclined:





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    Posted in Border Control, Democrats, Regulation, Social Justice Warriors, Supreme Court, Texas | 2 Comments »

    Ruble Now A Penny

    Monday, August 14th, 2023

    When Russia launched its illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine in February of 2022, many observers thought western financial sanctions would quickly crash the Russian economy. When Russia was cut out of SWIFT, the Ruble plunged to below a penny against the dollar, but quickly recovered, at least a bit.

    Due to various reasons (gas and oil sales, gold transfers, and the many loopholes EU countries have made for their sanctions), Russia’s economy hasn’t collapsed as quickly as many expected, or hoped.

    But just today, the ruble finally slipped back below the penny-parity line again.

    Russia’s central bank called an extraordinary meeting Tuesday after the ruble crashed through the level of 100 to the dollar for the first time since March of last year as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and international sanctions hit trade.

    Policy makers will publish a statement on the key rate at 10:30 a.m. after the meeting, the Bank of Russia said in a statement, without giving any further details. The central bank hiked its key rate by a percentage point to 8.5% last month, the first increase since emergency measures imposed immediately after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

    The exchange rate has emerged as the barometer of health for an economy battered by shrinking export revenues and its isolation from international financial markets, bringing infighting between the government and central bank into the open.

    The ruble reversed losses after the announcement, traded up 1.8% at 97.6625 at 7 p.m. in Moscow. The currency, which had broken through 101 earlier on Monday, has weakened about 27% this year for the third-worst performance in emerging markets. The central bank had sought to arrest the slump by saying it won’t purchase foreign currency on the domestic market for the rest of 2023.

    Yeah, no one trusts Russia to hold adequate foreign currency reserves a year and a half into sanctions. So that move doesn’t help.

    Lots of meaningless Russian “economy is great” blather snipped.

    Revenues of Russian oil and gas exporters declined to $6.9 billion in July from $16.8 billion in the same period last year, according to the latest central bank data. An easing of restrictions on moving money abroad has also led to accelerated capital flight as Russians race to shift funds into foreign accounts.

    “The weakening of the ruble is the result of the international screws tightening around the Russian economy, but also the cost of keeping the economy going,” said Erik Meyersson, chief emerging-market strategist at SEB AB in Stockholm. “Nobody wants to hold rubles, and the limited supply of foreign exchange from exporters weighs on the currency.”

    Of course, Russia could get out of it’s self-imposed monkey trap by withdrawing its forces from all occupied Ukrainian territory. But I don’t think anyone is hold their breath for that to happen…

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    Posted in Economics, Foreign Policy | 20 Comments »