Lupe Valdez beat Andrew White 53.1% to 46.9% in the Democratic gubernatorial runoff. In addition to her Metroplex base, Valdez won Hispanic-heavy areas like the Rio Grande valley and 5 of the 6 most popular counties (Dallas, Travis, Bexar, Tarrant, El Paso), something White’s clear strength in Harris County was unable to overcome. Valdez goes on to see if she can top Wendy Davis’ 38.9%.
Lorie Burch beat “other” Sam Johnson 75$% to 25% in the U.S. 3rd Congressional District race. She’ll face (and most likely lose to) Republican Van Taylor in the general. (Previously.)
Jana Lynne Sanchez beat Ruby Faye Woolridge, fueling the narrative that Hispanics are overtaking blacks as the Democratic Party’s key minority voting block, 53.1% to 46.9%, in the U.S. 6th Congressional District race. She’ll face (and likely lose to) Republican Ron Wright in November. (See below.)
In a very closely-watched race, Lizzie Pannill Fletcher slaughtered DCCC target Laura Moser 67.1% to 32.9% in the U.S. Seventh Congressional District. It seems that the DCCC’s #1 priority this year wasn’t winning, but burying anyone with any ties to Bernie Sanders. Fletcher will face incumbent Republican John Culberson in November. Culberson won his 2014 off-year election by a solid 63.3% to 34.5%, but Hillary Clinton carried the district (even as Culberson won by a narrower 56.2%) in 2016.
Mike Siegel beat Tawana Walter-Cadien handily in the U.S. 10th congressional district race, and the right to lose to well-funded Republican incumbent Mike McCaul in November.
Joseph Kopser beat Mary Wilson 58% to 42% in the U.S. 21st Congressional District race. Kopser is a throwback to the sort of candidate the Democrats used to love to run: A rich white businessman with ties to government and the military who could win in swing districts. He’ll face Republican Chip Roy in November (see below).
Sri Preston Kulkarni beat Letitia Plummer decisively in the U.S. 22nd Congressional District race for the right to lose to incumbent Republican Pete Olsen, who won 59.5% of the vote in 2016.
Gina Ortiz Jones beat Rick Trevino with 67.9% of the vote in the U.S. 23rd Congressional District race. The 23rd is the only true swing district in Texas, and Republican incumbent Will Hurd only won by 3,000 votes over former incumbent Pete Gallego in 2016 (a rematch of a 2014 race Hurd won by 2,000 votes). Hurd has a fundraising advantage, but Jones has raised over $1 million herself, and this is likely to be a very competitive race in November.
Julie Oliver edged Chris Perri with 52.2% of the vote in the U.S. 25th Congressional District, and will face Republican incumbent Roger Williams in this solidly Republican district.
Eric Holguin beat Raul (Roy) Barrera by 61.9% in the U.S. 27th Congressional District race, and will face Michael Cloud (see below) to replace disgraced retired incumbent Blake Farenthold.
Mary Jennings Hegar beat Christine Eady Mann with 62.2% of the vote in the U.S. 31st Congressional District race for the right to face incumbent Republican John Carter in November. This is my district, and is still pretty solidly Republican.
Colin Allred trounced Lillian Salerno with 69.5% of the vote in the 32nd Congressional District, and will face incumbent Republican Pete Sessions in November. Sessions had no Democratic opponent in 2016, but Hillary Clinton edged Trump in the district. Probably still solidly Republican.
Republicans
Ex-SEAL Dan Crenshaw walloped Kevin Roberts with just shy of 70% of the vote in the U.S. 2nd Congressional District race, and should easily beat Democratic political newcomer Tod Litton to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Ted Poe in this heavily Republican district.
State representative Lance Gooden edged conservative favorite Bunni Pounds with 53.1% of the vote in the U.S. 5th Congressional District race. He should easily handle Democrat Dan Wood in November to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Jeb Hensarling.
Tarrant County Tax Assessor-Collector Ron Wright beat Jake Ellzey 52.2% to 47.8%, which is a bit closer than I expected. Republican votes totaled twice those of Democrats in this heavily Republican district, so he should have no trouble dispatching Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez in November (see above). (Previously.)
Conservative favorite Chip Roy beat Matt McCall with 52.7% of the vote in the in the U.S. 21st Congressional District, underperforming expectations. Though a solidly Republican district, he’ll have to step it up against well-heeled incumbent Joseph Kopser (see above) if he wants to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Lamar Smith.
Michael Cloud beat Bech Bruun with in 61.0% in the U.S. 27th Congressional District race to replace the disgraced Blake Farenthold. The state legislature made this a solidly Republican district after Farenthold’s surprise win over Solomon Ortiz in 2010, so expect Cloud to easily beat Democratic nominee Eric Holguin (see above).
With over 99% of the Texas primary vote in, there were no alarms and no surprises. All the statewide Republican incumbents won their primaries, though George P. Bush and Sid Miller garnered less than 60% of the vote against underfunded challengers.
Greg Abbott pulled in 90% of the vote, handily beating Barbara Krueger and Larry SECEDE Kilgore, the later of whose 1.3% of the vote gives lie to the theory that Texas is currently a hotbed of secessionist fervor.
Ted Cruz garnered 85% of the vote against four underfunded opponents.
On the far left side of the the aisle, conventional wisdom also triumphed. Lupe Valdez (43%) and Andrew White (27%) are headed to a runoff, leaving Cederic Davis Sr., Grady Yarborough and Seth Payne (and my own runoff prediction) in the dust.
As expected, Beto O’Rourke won over two underfunded challengers, but at a mere 61.8% of the vote, he was hardly the juggernaut Democrats were making him out to be. Liberals have been talking up the chances for their fair-haired boy to take Ted Cruz, but I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it; O’Rourke garnered less than half the votes Cruz did.
Other Democratic race results: For Lieutenant Governor, Mike Collier edged Michael Cooper 52% to 48%, and for Comptroller, Joi Chevalier eeked out a 52% to 48% win over Tim Mahoney.
Other races:
Texas Second Congressional District: Republicans Kevin Roberts and Dan Crenshaw head to the runoff separated by less than a thousand votes in a 9 candidate field. (Previously.) On the Democratic side, lawyer Todd Litton won outright.
Texas Third Congressional District: As predicted, Republican state senator Van Taylor stomped his primary opposition with 85% of the vote, and lesbian-rights lawyer Lorie Burch and “the other” Sam Johnson are headed to a runoff for Democrats.
Texas Fifth Congressional District: Republican state Rep Lance Gooden and former Jed Hensarling fundraiser Bunni Pounds head to the runoff, leaving former Rep. Kenneth Sheets and Ted Cruz regional director Jason Wright behind. Democratic candidate Dan Wood was unopposed in his primary.
Texas Sixth Congressional District: as predicted, Tarrant County Tax Assessor-Collector Ron Wright went into the Republican runoff leading Jake Ellzey 45% to 21%. The top two Democratic contenders, Ruby Faye Woolridge and Jana Lynne Sanchez ended in a dead heat, each with 36.9% of the vote, setting up a bruising black vs. Hispanic runoff.
Texas Sixth Congressional District: As expected, Republican John Culberson won handily, but the real interest there is in the Democratic Party match, where the DCCC-targeted Laura Moser (yes, the DCCC went out of their way to attack a progressive political candidate in their own primary) made the runoff five points behind Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, but way ahead of the establishment-recruited Alex Triantaphyllis. Expect a nasty, no-holds-barred runoff.
Texas Twenty-First Congressional District: As expected, Chip Roy heads into the Republican runoff with a significant lead. However, his runoff opponent is not the expected William Negley, but Matt McCall. (I wonder if name confusion between Matt McCaul and adjacent district Republican incumbent Mike McCaul benefited McCall here.) However, on the Democratic side, Mary Street Wilson came out of nowhere to edge the well-heeled Joseph Kopser by two points going into the runoff, leaving AFL-CIO endorsed former Nancy Pelosi staffer Derrick Crowe on the outside looking in.
In State Senate District 9 Republican primary, which got a lot of attention, Ken Paxton’s wife Angela Paxton beat Don Huffines’ brother Phillip Huffines.
Texas 114th State Congressional District: Lisa Luby Ryan defeats Jason Villalba!
Sadly, both Charlie Geren and Giovanni Capriglione survive to bedevil conservatives.
The Twenty-First U.S. Congressional District, the seat held by retiring Republican Lamar Smith, runs from Austin to San Antonio, encompassing much of the western Hill Country. It’s heavily Republican and largely white, though with a significant Hispanic population.
There are no fewer than 13 Republicans candidates for this seat, including a former U.S. Representatives, Ted Cruz’s former chief-of-staff, a State Rep, two previous candidates, and not one but two candidates who are ex-CIA. Also worth noting: The candidate who has the raised the most money so far is a Democrat.
Republican
Ivan A. Andarza: Austin lawyer and a former or current member of several state boards. That suggests and ability to self-fund that might get him into the runoff…in another race. But I don’t see him making headway in this packed race.
Eric Burkhart: Has an interesting history as an ex-CIA agent. But I can’t tell his current job, and thus don’t see an ability to self-fund.
Former U.S. Congressman Francisco “Quico” Canseco: Unseated Ciro Rodriguez for the U.S. 23rd congressional district in the Republican wave year of 2010, and who was unseated in turn in 2012 by Pete Gallego in 2012. (Disclaimer: I donated money to Canseco in 2010, because I perceived (correctly) that he had a good chance to knock off a Democratic incumbent.) However, Canseco’s fundraising doesn’t even show up in the latest report, suggesting he’ll struggle mightily to make the runoff, name recognition or not.
Mauro Garza: Former Director of Grants and Contracts at the Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research. Nothing about his profile or website suggests he’ll be a serious contender.
Foster Hagen: Has a barely-used Facebook page, and his website is missing. So I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest he’s not going to be a factor…
Texas State Rep. Jason Isaac: Normally being a State Rep at least gives you a good shot to get into the runoff, but probably not here. He’s got some good endorsements (including Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian), but nothing the level of Chip Roy’s endorsements. Has raised $203,050, third among Republicans. A chance to make the runoffs, but it appears to be an uphill struggle right now.
Ryan Krause: Not seeing any indication he’ll be a competitive candidate.
Matt McCall: Already run twice for this seat and got clobbered by Lamar Smith both times. Has raised $168,606, which is not trivial, but I don’t think the third time is the charm for him.
Susan Narvaiz: Formerly lost to Lloyd Doggett in the U.S. District 35 race. Lagging in fundraising, I don’t see her making any headway in this race.
William Negley: Another former CIA member, a former member of Kay Baily Hurtchison’s staff, and backed by deep-pocketed businessman Red McCombs, which explains how Negley raked in $307,127, second only to Chip Roy. A serious contender to make the runoff with Chip Roy.
Al Poteet: A veteran and former CEO of Humana Veterans Healthcare Service. Nice hat, but he’s at the very bottom of fundraising for the race.
Autry Pruitt is a black media commentator. Maybe he’s flown below my radar, but seeing that his fundraising doesn’t even register, probably not.
Chip Roy: Ted Cruz’s former chief of staff, who has been endorsed by both Cruz and Rick Perry, has raised $372,574 (the most of any Republican candidate), and the odds-on favorite in the race. It’s possibly that he wins without a runoff, but with so many candidates in the race that seems unlikely.
Anthony White: Former Marine Colonel. I couldn’t find a webpage, but his Twitter feed has 24 followers…
Democrats
Derrick Crowe: Former Nancy Pelosi staffer. Has a bunch of endorsements. Has raised $119,392, or less than one-sixth what Joseph Kopser has. A solid chance to make the runoff, but it may be hard for him to overcome Kopser’s fundraising muscle.
Joseph Kopser: At $772,335, he’s raised twice as much as anyone in the race, Republican or Democrat. (Notable donors include game designer Richard Garriott, plus lots of lawyers and CEOs in New York, San Antonio, New York City and Washington, D.C. “Kopser is a U.S. Army veteran and has worked in private industry. Leading up to the 2018 primary election, he was serving as president of the advisory and analytics firm Grayline as well as a member of the Defense Council of the Truman National Security Project. His other professional experience includes serving as the director of Texas Lyceum, a member of the board of directors of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce, and the chairman and co-founder of Bunker Labs Austin. Kopser’s military experience includes serving as the department chair and professor of leadership and strategy at Texas Army ROTC and as the special assistant to the Army chief of staff. Kopser spent several years deployed in Iraq. He graduated from Harvard University with his M.P.A. and from the United States Military Academy at West Point with his bachelor’s in aerospace engineering.”
Kopser probably has better chance than Roy of avoiding a runoff, just based on the sheer size of the Republican field. Otherwise, expect a Roy/Negley runoff among Republicans, and Kopser/Crowe runoff for Democrats.