And the latest long-simmering hotspot to flare up overnight is (spins wheel) SYRIA!
Who had their chips on Syria?
The Syria civil war has more or less been frozen for the last, what, two years? That’s not the case anymore, as the anti-Assad forces just launched as massive attack that has Assad’s forces on their heels.
All those green flags are anti-Assad attacks. More from JihadWatch.
Syrian Islamist rebels appear to have made stunning territorial advances against the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad on Friday, re-entering the city of Aleppo for the first time in eight years amid the apparent collapse of government defenses in the area.
Unconfirmed videos on social media suggest that rebel fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other groups captured parts of western Aleppo, which was Syria’s most populous city prior to the country’s ongoing civil war, which broke out in 2011.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged as an al-Qaeda splinter faction, although it now rejects affiliation with the terror group. The United States designated HTS as a foreign terrorist organization in 2018.
The offensive marks the rebels’ most significant advance, following years of stalemate in northwest Syria, with Turkish-backed rebels and HTS holding a narrow strip of territory around the provinces of Idlib and Afrin.
Turkey and Russia signed a ceasefire in 2020 after agreeing to turn Idlib into a “de-escalation zone” in 2018.
There are supposedly some pro-Assad holdouts in Aleppo.
The interesting thing about Syria is a that it’s a back-burner conflict that ties into all the other conflicts in the region. Iran backs Syria, as well as Hamas and Hezbollah, against Egypt. Syria also backs Hezbollah, both against Israel and to maintain a level of control over neighboring Lebanon. Turkey backs some of the jihadist forces fighting against Syria, while others are backed by, I don’t know, pick a random Sunni dynastic petrostate and you’ve probably got fair odds of being right. Russia also backs Syria, and is also its number one arms supplier.
And what do Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Russia all have in common? They’ve all been getting heir asses kicked in regional conflicts, either by Israel or by Ukraine, both of which are backed by the United States.
Now must have seemed like the right time to settle Assad’s hash, with his catspaw Hezbollah absolutely wrecked by Israel and Russia too busy with their own conflict(s) to offer much if anything in the way of aid.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) split off from al Qaeda and has evidently ruthless destroyed any al Qaeda fighters it can find, so…yay? They’re still jihadist scumbags, and have split/merged/changed acronyms five or six times since I last looked at the Syrian Civil War.
A Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led Syria would probably be just as hostile to Israel…but not aligned with Iran.
Half a yay?
Russia responded to the collapse of Assad forces in Aleppo by…buggering out of Hama.
Is the Assad regime about to fall? Maybe, as military collapse can become contagious, but Aleppo is a long way from Damascus. Remember, the Islamic State was racking up victory after victory right up until it wasn’t.
I imagine Assad’s forces will be able to hold the capital, where resistance will stiffen up. Even before then, Homs probably won’t be a cake-walk either, but there’s also speculation that anti-Assad forces will try to take various Syrian post cities, which would put considerable economic pressure on Assad.
Assad looks to be in deep trouble, but he’s slithered out of sticky predicaments before. Odds are he’ll survive this time as well, though no doubt seriously weakened.