Open Carry has passed both the House and Senate. It’s now headed to the desk of Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who has said he’ll sign it.
“House Bill 910 [warning: 46 page PDF] from state Rep. Larry Phillips, R-Sherman, would allow license-holders to carry handguns openly in a hip or shoulder holster, changing current law requiring that such weapons be concealed.” The “cop stop” amendment has evidently been stripped from the final bill.
That’s the title of the press release the Abbott campaign just sent out. Details from that release:
$35.59 million cash on hand for the fundraising period ending on June 30th – the highest cash on hand amount ever reported by a Texas candidate. Since January 1st of this year, Texans for Greg Abbott has raised $16.6 million. For the current reporting period running from February 23rd-June 30th, Abbott reported raising $11.1 million. Greg Abbott’s fundraising is coming from Texas: 95 percent of Abbott’s contributions came from within the state.
That last line is a direct jab at Wendy Davis’ Hollywood fundraising trips. The farther she goes from Texas, the more they like her…
The fat lady isn’t just warming up, she’s already striding out on stage in full Valkyrie gear…
We’re already seeing some fallout from the Supreme Court’s Shelby County vs. Holder decision (the complete text of which is now online).
According to Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, the Voter ID law will take effect immediately.
“With today’s decision, the State’s voter ID law will take effect immediately. Redistricting maps passed by the Legislature may also take effect without approval from the federal government.”
What remains unclear is whether the State of Texas can declare the 2011 redistricting maps valid without further court challenge. There’s currently a bill before Gov. Perry to confirm the 2012 interim maps as the official maps. However, that passed the Texas House and Senate before the Supreme Court ruling. Perry may well decide to veto the measure in order to go with the 2011 maps, which would be more favorable to Republicans.
I attended Tony Dale‘s fundraising luncheon, and snapped a few pictures of the swells assembled there. Click to embiggen.
First, the lovely and talented Holly Hansen of Williamson County Conservative, who I finally got to meet in person! We’ve only been trading blog links for two years. Next to her is Cedar Park Mayor Matt Powell.
Congressman John Carter and Williamson County Commissioner Lisa Birkman.
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott.
Abbott next to Your Humble Blogger and his freakishly long torso.
And naturally, since this was a luncheon for Tony Dale, none of the pictures I got of him came out. Go figure. But don’t let that stop you from voting for him…
Edited to Add: Tony Dale was kind enough to send this picture along:
Word is he’s considering a run in 2014.
Could Kinky get nominated? Sure. You saw how little effort it took to run as a Democratic statewide for the Senate, and Kinky starts off with greater name recognition than any of the Dems in that race. There’s little indication any prominent Democrat wants to go through the meat-grinder of a statewide race (though if I were to guess, trial lawyer Jason A. Gibson, who launched an abortive Senate bid before Sadler got stamped with the union label, might make a run). Kinky’s probably to the right of the Democratic primary electorate, but I don’t see anyone with his name recognition talking about a run.
Could Kinky do better than he did in 2006? Sure. Kinky only got 12.5% of the vote, coming in fourth. Even Democrat Chris Bell did better in that four-way race, pulling in just shy of 30% of the vote. That’s probably his absolute floor if he gets the Democratic nomination, and it’s probably closer to 40%.
Could Kinky win? Doubtful, but not impossible. Save for 2006, Democratic gubernatorial candidates have pulled in between 40% (Tony Sanchez) and 42% (Bill White) of the vote against Rick Perry. Perry clearly damaged his popularity with the missteps of his abortive Presidential run (and, to a lesser extent, his endorsement of David Dewhurst’s failed senatorial campaign), though probably not enough to lose to Kinky (or any other Democrat), assuming he runs again. But two years is a long time, both good and bad. Perry has time to recover, but also to make a catastrophic error or fumble a crisis. And while it’s not nearly as widespread as the MSM would like you to believe, there is a certain amount of Perry fatigue among even Republican voters. Perry’s already the longest serving Governor in Texas history, having replaced George W. Bush on December 21, 2000. That’s an awful long time for anyone to be in the same office, and there are plenty of people ready to make the argument that it’s too long.
Will Rick Perry run again in 2014? Answer cloudy, ask again later. Maybe even Perry doesn’t know yet. Word is that Attorney General Greg Abbott is itching for the office, and may run even if Perry doesn’t opt to retire. If I had to guess, I think it’s slightly more likely that Perry retires than that he runs again. He has nothing left to prove at a statewide level. Dewhurst’s implosion proved that even the most well-heeled Texas incumbents are vulnerable to a challenge from the right. Perry has very little to gain and much to lose from hanging on, and a Perry-Abbott race would be a brutal smackdown that could go either way. It would probably be in Perry’s best interest to assume that Texas A&M Presidency rumor has the diehard Aggie angling for as his post-gubernatorial sinecure, and possibly contemplate another Presidential run at the end of Romney’s second term. But Perry would hardly be the first politician to stay in office too long.
Another gubernatorial run might not be good for Kinky, but it would be be good for the Texas Democratic Party, which resembles a moldy thing in a jar more than a viable alternative. Kinky might (might) even be able to shake off the stultifying far-left political correctness that has rendered the party uncompetitive in statewide races.
It would also be good for the Republican Party of Texas; once you get past the Tea Party, there’s no one left to keep them honest.
I’ve been reading up a bit more on the compromise redistricting lines released by the San Antonio district court. Texas Attorney General Greg Abbot was able to keep most of what the legislature passed, and the Governor signed, intact, but a few changes were made to satisfy Democratic demands to win in court what they couldn’t at the ballot box settle lawsuits by various minority interest groups under the provisions of the Voting Rights Act.
Though U.S. Congressional Districts, State Senate Districts, and State House districts were all affected by the new maps, I want to focus on three U.S. Congressional Districts, including some shown in this map here:
All in all, Texas Republicans expect to pick up two to four U.S. Congressional seats thanks to redistricting, which looks extremely doable.
And now we finally have election dates:
It’s only a few days after she announced her retirement, but several serious contenders are getting a lot of buzz for Kay Baily Hutchison’s Senate seat:
And that’s just the first batch of names to be floated, and says nothing of random billionaires or old Republican warhorses jumping into the race.
The Democratic names being floated are a far less imposing bunch: San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia, ex-Congressman Chet Edwards, and former Comptroller John Sharp. Edwards got trounced in the most recent election, while Sharp was defeated by Dewhurst in his run for Lieutenant Governor in 2002, and it’s hard to treat someone as a serious candidate who haven’t updated their twitter feed in almost a year and who let his campaign website (http://www.johnsharp.com/) lapse.
In related news, Democratic Senator Kent Conrad, of deeply red North Dakota, announced he was declining to run in 2012 as well, which means Democratic chances to hold onto the seat probably just went from slim to none.