Putin evidently expected his “special military operation” (i.e., his illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine) to be over in three days. In a grim milestone and testament to wide-ranging Russian incompetence and the superiority of NATO weapons and Ukrainian ingenuity, that conflict just hit the 1,000 day mark.
Ukraine marked 1,000 days of war with Russia on Tuesday since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his “special military operation” on Feb. 22, 2022, and initiated the largest conflict Europe has seen since World War II.
It isn’t only the scale of the fight that has resembled the infamous war that ended more than 75 years prior to Putin’s invasion. Parents loaded their children onto trains in the early days of the war, veins of trenches have scarred eastern Ukraine, and cities and towns have been completely decimated by air, land and sea-based bombardments.
But the war has done more than remind Western leaders of the global repercussions that come when major nations enter into mass conflict. A new type of warfare emerged out of the fight in Ukraine and the reliance on cheaply made drones to target cities, troop locations and military equipment that cost millions, cemented a new era in combat strategy.
The war has been a war crime for Russia, a bloody tragedy for Ukraine, and a resounding success for NATO, as Russia has used up the majority of the weapons and equipment it inherited from the Soviet Union. Russia has been grinding away for the last two of those years for what have essentially been infinitesimal gains at high cost.
Some think Trump is going to bail out Putin, but Trump sees everything from a negotiating/persuasion/bargaining perspective (along with tit-for-tat game theory), and Trump’s strategy is to threaten what his opposite number holds most dear before dangling a carrot.
I predict that any Trump-led negotiations will be…interesting.
If you’ve been reading this blog for any length of time, then you’ve probably run across the occasional Mark Felton video, most likely in a LinkSwarm. He usually covers interesting historical military tidbits, but here he veers into contemporary American territory to ask: What sort of gun does Donald Trump carry?
“Donald Trump was issued with one of the rarest gun licenses available in the United States: An unrestricted concealed carry handgun permit in New York City, well known for its very restrictive gun laws in comparison with many other parts of the US.”
“Trump was issued this very rare permit by the New York City Police Department, and it is usually only granted in New York City to retired police or federal law enforcement, or to a person whose need for such a permit is clearly demonstrated.”
“Very often these licenses also go to very wealthy and politically connected New Yorkers, and Trump has certainly been one of those for a very long time.”
“Did Trump prior to becoming president for the first time in 2016 actually conceal carry in the Big Apple?”
Trump: “The way I view it, if nobody has guns, then only the bad guys have them, and they aren’t giving up their guns.”
“He told an interviewer that he owns two handguns, one a .45 caliber Heckler and Koch semi-automatic, supposedly a USP, a German military service pistol made for the Bundeswehr and very popular worldwide.”
The USP carries 12 rounds and weighs “26.4 oz without the magazine.”
Felton suggests “the weapon is not easily concealed, however, and commentators have suggested that Trump’s USP is a nightstand gun.” Maybe, but if Trump purchased the gun in the 1990s, standard 1911s were considered an acceptable carry choice at the time because carry and ultracarry choices weren’t nearly as widely available as they are today.
“Trump, however, does own a weapon deliberately designed as a conceal carry piece: a Smith & Wesson 642 hammerless Airweight .38 Special, a five round revolver. It has a cylinder, and Trump uses .38 Special +P ammunition.”
“Due to having a fully enclosed hammer to prevent snagging on clothing, the 642 is double action only, with a fairly long trigger pull. It is a snubnose barrel, and can fit a variety of grips. Many off-duty NYPD officers carry the 640 or 642 as a conceal carry weapon, or as a backup gun, and it weighs around 22 1/2 oz, with the alloy version even lighter at just 15.8 oz.”
Felton’s search for evidence Trump actually carried the gun is inconclusive.
In his Joe Rogan interview, President Trump said that his biggest mistake from his first term came from appointing “disloyal” people to important positions based on advice from career Republican politicians. So naturally this time around he’s picking people based in large measure on personal loyalty to him. The result is a much better cabinet than his first, but not a perfect one. I’ll go through the top picks with quick reaction on each.
Secretary of State: Marco Rubio. Meh. Marco has always struck me as an intellectual lightweight. He will doubtless be a much better Secretary of State than Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first choice, as well as all Democratic secretaries of state back to at least Cyrus Vance (if not further), but in terms of actual ability I’m not sure he’s better than Trump’s second Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. I would prefer someone like Victor Davis Hanson. Or even (dare I say it?) Rick Perry. This also starts the run of “Sure is a lot of people from Florida on this list.”
Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth. “Before joining Fox in 2014, Hegseth served as an Army National Guard captain in Afghanistan and Iraq and earned the Bronze Star medal for his service in the latter.” I don’t watch Fox (or network or cable news in general), so I wasn’t previously aware of him, but he wants to completely purge wokeness and DEI, so I’m firmly on Team Hegseth now.
Attorney General: Florida congressman Matt Gaetz. Boy, this one really has the left freaking out. As well it should. While I’m confident Gaetz has the steel to launch investigations of the Russian collusion hoax, the Trump assassination attempts, the lawfare waged against him, censorship efforts, January 6, etc., I worry that he hasn’t run a state attorney generals office, and thus won’t know how best to bring “resistance” staffers to heel. I suspect a seasoned Republican state attorney general like Ken Paxton might have been a better choice, but Texas conservatives won’t complain about getting to keep Paxton in his current job.
Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security: South Dakota governor Kristi Noem. Meh. I liked Noem back when she kept her state open during the Flu Manchu panic, but then she went off tranny pandering by vetoing a bill banning men from women’s sports she had promised to sign. She later made amends, but the initial pander of caving to radical social justice pressure makes me worry that she doesn’t have the necessary gumption for such an important job.
Department Of Government Efficiency: Elon Musk And Vivek Ramaswamy. Putting aside why this isn’t simply the Office of Management and Budget (maybe to staff a new department from the ground up without “resisters”), this one Trump hit out of the park. Both Musk and Ramaswamy are going to bring outsider energy from two guys who simply don’t care what the MSM and the DC chattering classes have to say about them. Ramaswamy is the ideological firebrand that won’t be diverted from the task, and Musk is the radical innovator who’s not afraid to to make rapid, radical changes. Every Republican President since Reagan has said they’re for a balanced budget, yet somehow the goal has eluded every single one of them. Trump did not pursue a budget cutting agenda in his first term, but having been targeted by multiple tentacles of the deep state leviathan, I’m pretty sure he’ll come in with a newfound zeal for chopping the federal government down to size. And Musk has a talent for both management and radical disruption, which the federal government badly needs.
Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard. I’m skeptical this one works out. Tulsi is clearly sharp, and after this election she clearly needs some role in the Trump 2: The Venging administration. And she drive feminists crazy simply by standing there and looking pretty. But directing the national intelligence apparatus, especially one that will be institutionally hostile to reform from the git go, will take a very special, and very tough, director to fill that role, and I’m not sure Gabbard has the intestinal fortitude for the sort of brutal inter-agency knife-fighting necessary to defeat the Deep State. Very few men do, and even fewer women, and having served in the military isn’t sufficient to assure that. For a woman to succeed in this role, she’s going to need to fall somewhere on the Margaret Thatcher to Nancy Pelosi Iron Lady to Stone Cold Bitch spectrum, and I’m skeptical Tulsi meets that threshold. Maybe I’m wrong and she’ll suprise us all.
Robert K. Kennedy, Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. No. Like Tulsi, you have to give him some role, and he probably has some good points to make about over-medication, junk food additives, and how the pharmaceutical industry has misled the public (especially over Flu Manchu vaccines and side effects) and commits regulatory capture of the people who should be overseeing it, but he has too many fringe, scientifically supported ideas, and he seems to support ObamaCare. There’s still a chance this selection works out, assuming the Assistant Director is someone who can keep Kennedy’s worst impulses in check, and having him as the designated bad cop may force the medial industry get its shit together (and give up its push to mutilate children for funny, profit and virtue signaling brownie points entirely). Then there’s this via Instapundit:
God forbid we let RFK Jr. be in charge of HHS, otherwise he might do something crazy like fund experimental gain-of-function research in Chinese laboratories and cause a global pandemic
But this could still blow up in Trump’s face. Rand Paul would have been a much better pick here, assuming he could be persuaded to leave the senate.
Border Czar: Former ICE director Tom Homan. Yeah, he’s got the starch.
Let a thousand ten million deportations bloom.
So I find it a pretty mixed bag.
Athena Thorne notes that all those selected were unfairly targeted by the very agencies they’re being tasked to oversee, and that probably does provide powerful motivation, as well as insight on the types of abuse that need to be rooted out. I’m just not sure that’s sufficient…
All of Ken Paxton’s lawsuits against the federal government have offered the possibility of notable revelations, but this one has the potential to be extra spicy.
Texas sued the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) on Monday attempting to preserve all records pertaining to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into President-elect Donald Trump.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) complaint on November 8 requesting specific records from Smith’s investigation, including “all Communications from any current or former member of the Office of Special Counsel Jack Smith to any New York State governmental office since November 18, 2022,” as well as “documents memorializing the … final reasoning to request that a trial against President-elect Trump to start in January of 2024.”
Texas expressed concerns in court documents that the DOJ’s history with special counsels is “regrettably riddled with attempts to avoid transparency,” specifically referencing Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s infamous Crossfire Hurricane incident in 2020. Mueller’s team allegedly repeatedly wiped their phones after an investigation into the DOJ’s handling of a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) probe into Trump’s purportedly unlawful links to Russia.
The suit filed on November 11 states that Paxton “fears that many releasable records — including those that he sought — will never see daylight. That is not because the DOJ has any legal reason to withhold them…”
“Rather, Attorney General Paxton has a well-founded belief as set forth herein that Defendants will simply destroy the records.”
Paxton states in the filing that since Trump won the election “it is clear that both Jack Smith’s office, and his prosecution of the President, will soon end.” The DOJ’s own policies do not permit bringing charges against a sitting President of the United States as it “would unconstitutionally undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutionally assigned functions.”
“I will not allow the corrupt weaponization of the United States government to be swept under the rug as Jack Smith and others who unjustly targeted President Trump attempt to avoid accountability,” Paxton said in a press release.
Texas’ suit was filed in the United States District Court Northern District of Texas, Amarillo Division.
Obviously I hope Paxton prevails and that Smith (and the entire Biden Administration)’s attempts to illegally wage lawfare against Trump to thwart the will of American voters gets exposed. However (and here we insert the usual I Am Not A Lawyer caveat), it appears that Paxton will have difficulty in establishing standing for the lawsuit to proceed. Trump is not a resident of Texas, and it may be difficult to establish that the State of Texas has suffered direct harm from Smith’s actions.
However, in this case I’m wondering if Paxton has filed the case on a timeline that either the Biden Administration doesn’t respond in time, or that the second Trump Administration can file the response, proving a mechanism by which the Trump Administration settles the lawsuit by releasing all requested documents that may otherwise be held up by claims of executive privilege, garden variety DOJ stonewalling, etc.
It’s an interesting gambit. We’ll see how it plays out…
Tired of enjoying a nice heaping plate of schadenfreude at liberal dismay over Trump’s win? Well, I’m not! Enjoy some of the most confidently smug Democrats declaring that there’s no way Trump can win.
Highlights:
The female “political analyst” who confidently told a liquor store clerk where she was buying champagne that Harris was going to win all the swing states plus Iowa due to abortion, only to cry “racism and misogyny” in the “after” video.
The Tik-Tok electoral votes map guy who confidently predicted Harris garnering 349 votes, including. “It’s gonna be a landslide.” Also: “Some people are telling me to turn Texas to blue.” Democrats have been getting high on the “Texas is about to turn blue” pipe dream for the last two decades…
Nikki Haley back during her Republican presidential primary campaign (Where she managed to win…Vermont. By 3,000 votes.): “If Donald Trump is the nominee, mark my words, we will see a President Kamala Harris.”
Bill Maher predicting Kamala winning the popular vote.
Some MSNBC talking head calmly asserting that “there’s no imaginable world in which Donald Trump would win a popular majority in America.”
Seems like Democrats lack imagination about a whole lot of things…
What a freaking epic (and tiring) week! I waited until Fox and Decision Desk had declared Trump the winner past 1 AM Wednesday morning, and then had to get up a few hours later to get ready to work. So we’ve got more election fallout, Israel bags more terrorist scumbags, Elon Musk and Ron Paul may team up to fight government waste, Texas continues to purge wokeness from public institutions, and a song mystery is solved.
Last time around, Trump squandered his momentum. He passed the tax bill that the establishment GOP wanted, after which they didn’t need anything from him and turned to obstructing him….
Like airplanes on a runway. Trump’s approach this time around should be what he should have done last time: Shock and awe. Shut down departments, fire bureaucrats, exercise emergency powers, all so fast that the establishment’s responses are saturated. Javier Millei’s whirlwind assault in Argentina should be the model, sometimes in specifics but also in general approach. Bureaucrats move slowly; Trump should move fast.
Elon Musk says he can cut $2 trillion easily; do it. Also, set bureaucrats competing with each other for what funds remain. Divide and conquer.
The FBI’s files on its policing of domestic dissent should be opened up, as should the details of the NSA’s illegal domestic spying. Trump should have outsiders investigate possible (likely) prosecutorial misconduct in the January 6 prosecutions – something judges have already raised – and fire those responsible, as well as subjecting them to what other legal consequences may apply. The lesson that the deep state can’t intervene in domestic politics needs to be driven home, and the only way to do that is to ruin a lot of lives on the part of people who deserve to have their lives ruined, from the top of the Justice Department and the intelligence agencies to the bottom. Likewise those involved in social media censorship programs, “Operation Chokepoint” style economic warfare, and the like. Abuse of government power against the citizenry should be treated as a criminal matter, because it is.
Trump should also announce that the federal government is waiving qualified immunity on the part of such officials.
There are lots more ideas – you can submit your own in the comments below, and the much-maligned Project 2025, though not actually a Trump initiative, contains some – and Bloomberg is already warning that if elected Trump will dismantle the White House’s gun control ministry. Oh no!
The specifics aren’t really the point here, though I should probably post another essay just about those. But the point here is rapid action across a wide variety of fronts. Trump should take advantage of the precedents that Biden has set for far-reaching executive action, though you can bet that when he does the press will pretend this is the first time anything like that has ever been done.
The story of how Harris pocketed record sums while failing to gain support from voters will be studied by campaigns for decades to come. Democrats who successfully pressured octogenarian President Joe Biden to pass the torch to the former California senator are now conducting an internal autopsy of the 2024 race, in which Trump raised and spent hundreds of millions of dollars less than Harris.
“A billion dollars paled in comparison to the increased prices Americans were seeing across the country,” Tom Fitton, president of the conservative group Judicial Watch and a longtime Trump ally, told the Washington Examiner. “Voters weren’t fooled.”
The Harris campaign and its affiliated committees dropped more than $654 million on advertising from July 22 to Election Day, whereas Trump spent $378 million, or 57% less, in the same category, according to data from AdImpact.
Future Forward, the $500 million “ad-testing factory” and super PAC that supported Harris, was a reliable clearinghouse for checks from wealthy Democrats such as Reid Hoffman, George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, and Dustin Moskovitz. And anonymous donations, or so-called “dark money,” also benefited Harris at a faster and more substantial clip than Trump thanks to lax federal laws that progressives often criticize but, nonetheless, exploited in 2024.
The Harris campaign declined to comment on its finances. A fuller portrait will be public after the election, as the Federal Election Commission mandates post-general election reports for candidates within 30 days.
In mid-October, the Harris campaign disclosed that it had spent over $880 million this election, almost $526 million greater than the roughly $354 million that the Trump campaign had disclosed spending, according to a Washington Examiner analysis of federal filings. Much of the Harris campaign’s spending was allocated for digital media advertising, polling, and travel from state to state, including to a private jet company called Advanced Aviation.
Payroll and the taxes that accompanied it accounted for $56.6 million of the Harris campaign’s spending. In comparison, the Trump campaign reported spending $9 million on payroll — employing hundreds fewer staff members.
There was also the army of political, digital, and media consultants who were paid over $12.8 million by the Harris campaign, filings show.
One vendor, Village Marketing Agency, received over $3.9 million and reportedly worked to recruit thousands of social media influencers to boost Harris online. Others that scored lucrative consulting gigs from the campaign included the likes of Precision Strategies, a Democratic-aligned marketing agency; Ethos Organizing, founded by former Ohio Democratic Party director Malik Hubbard; and the Biden-allied SKDK communications firm.
Snip.
“Event production” was also a staple spending area of the Harris campaign, which notably hosted a star-studded lineup of musicians from Lady Gaga to Katy Perry for an election eve rally.
The campaign paid more than $15 million, according to federal filings, to companies for such services.
There was $1 million for Oprah Winfrey’s Harpo Productions on Oct. 15 in West Hollywood, California.
Winfrey, a top Harris ally, appeared at a town hall with the vice president in September and was at her final rally in Philadelphia before Election Day.
Viva Creative, a marketing agency that has touted its work with Oprah, comedian Trevor Noah, the Washington Nationals baseball team, and American Express, scooped up $1.8 million from the Harris campaign for event production from September to October. A company called Production Management One in Maryland received $1.7 million, with large payments also going to Vox Productions, Temple University, Wizard Studios North, the Park Hyatt Chicago, and other entities for event production, filings show.
Then there was Majic Productions, a Wisconsin-based company, which has worked the NBA playoffs, the Super Bowl, and at the Bellagio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. The Harris campaign paid that company $2.3 million.
A source familiar with the matter told the Washington Examiner that the Harris campaign spent six figures on building a set for Harris’s appearance on the popular Call Her Daddy podcast with host Alex Cooper. The interview came out in October and was reportedly filmed in a hotel room in Washington, D.C.
In the end, San Francisco mayor London Breed’s recent efforts to crack down on homelessness and crime weren’t enough to save her from the wrath of voters frustrated by years of disorder and talk of a “doom loop” in the famously progressive city.
After 14 rounds through the city’s ranked-choice voting process, Breed lost decisively to Daniel Lurie, a more moderate Democrat and a wealthy heir to the Levi Strauss fortune.
Lurie was ahead from the first round, and after 14 rounds led with 56.2 percent of the vote to Breed’s 43.8 percent, according to the San Francisco Department of Elections.
With San Francisco actually restoring sanity, pretty soon Austin will be the only crazy leftwing city left in America…
“UK Conservative Party elects ‘anti-woke’ Kemi Badenoch as new leader. The UK’s Conservatives on Saturday elected Kemi Badenoch as their new leader, replacing Rishi Sunak after the party’s poor performance in July’s general election. Badenoch, a staunch “anti-woke” advocate, faces the challenge of uniting a divided party while redefining its future.”
Israel seems to be on another winning streak. Israeli Commando Raid Captures Hezbollah Naval Commander….The terrorist, identified by Lebanese media as Imad Amhaz, chief of Hezbollah’s naval operations, was picked by Israeli commandos from the town of Batroun, some 100 miles into the terrorist-held hostile territory.”
Today, the Board of Regents of Texas A&M University System pushed back against “shared governance” with woke faculty members. They voted to end 52 low-performing programs, including an LGBTQ minor.
Over the course of many months, State Rep. Brian Harrison (R-Midlothian) repeatedly criticized DEI courses and the LGBTQ studies minor at Texas A&M. In September 2024, a university spokesperson confirmed that they would deactivate 38 certificates and 14 minors, including the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Queer Studies minor.
On November 7, the Board of Regents unanimously approved the deactivation of these programs by voice vote.
The only question is why it took so long to fight back against the woke mind virus…
Want to be infuriated? “A federal disaster relief official ordered workers to bypass the homes of Donald Trump’s supporters as they surveyed damage caused by Hurricane Milton in Florida, according to internal correspondence obtained by The Daily Wire and confirmed by multiple federal employees.”
“The Grift Is Ending: ESG Fund Managers Being Told To “Keep Their Lawyers Very Close.”
Green New Boom: “Lithium-Ion Battery Recycle Plant Explodes in Missouri.”
RIPeanut. “Outrage Ensues After Beloved Rescue Squirrel Seized By NY, Euthanized.”
Speaking of sickening, you might want to skip to the next LinkSwarm entry if you don’t want to hear about horrific child abuse: “Animator Bolhem Bouchiba was sentenced to 25 years in prison for ordering the torture of children on live streams, paying parents to abuse their own kids.” Now he works for Disney.
Remember all that money to was supposed to flow to semiconductor companies that fabbed chips in America thanks to the CHIPS Act? Well Intel has seen exactly jack and squat from it. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger: “As we said on our [earnings] call, we are disappointed by the time it is taking to get it done: it is well over two years since the CHIPS Act passed and over that period I have invested $30 billion in U.S. manufacturing and we have seen $0 from the CHIPS grants.” What are the odds that the money has actually been raked off into the usual Democratic pockets? (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
Followup: “For five years, Mickey Barreto lived in Room 2565 at the storied New Yorker Hotel without paying a dime. But the free ride ended when he was not only evicted, but also charged earlier this year with a criminal scheme to claim ownership of the Midtown Manhattan hotel. Now, two doctors and prosecutors have said that he is not mentally competent to stand trial, and a judge has given him seven days to find inpatient psychiatric care.” (Hat tip: Dwight.) (Previously.)
Kotaku lays off more writers, though ultra-woke leftist Alyssa Mercante evidently left on her own. Evidently they’re down to six fulltime staffers.
Everything you know is wrong. “A new peer-reviewed study led by Sydney-based researchers Stephen Woodcock and Jay Falleti has found that the time it would take for a typing monkey to replicate Shakespeare’s plays, sonnets, and poems would be longer than the lifespan of our universe.”
“Democrats Admit Trump Actually Won In 2020 And Is Now Unable To Serve Third Term.” “We probably should have been more up-front about the fact that we stole the election and Biden was never president, but oh well. Hindsight is 20-20. I guess Kamala wins by default now, right?”
Fallout from Trump’s decisive victory over the Obama Machine continues to land fast and heavy. So let’s do a roundup before the Friday LinkSwarm gets unwieldy.
Harris officially conceded. In a sane world, this would be the end of Democrats “we have to keep Trump out of office by any means necessary” efforts, but alas, the TDS-wrecked Democratic Party is far from sane…
“David McCormick Wins Pennsylvania Senate Seat, Ousting Longtime Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey.” Casey’s team says they still think they can win, so don’t put it past Pennsylvania Democrats to “discover” a whole bunch of “uncounted” ballots…
Tablet’s Park MacDougald calls Trump’s win a landslide.
For months now, they have been saying that mainstream pollsters and pundits predicting a Harris victory were full of it. They were right. The late Harris surge in the polls was a mirage. The stories that recently appeared in outlets such as Politico about massive last-minute swings to Harris among independents, Hispanics offended by a comic’s Puerto Rico joke, and educated women—all of it was bullshit, invented out of whole cloth by Harris campaign operatives and repeated by journalists such as Jonathan Martin as if it were fact. In the end, none of it was real. The election wasn’t even close.
How did Trump do it? We’ve seen some suggestive exit polls showing, for instance, Trump winning more than 40% of the Jewish vote in New York City; that sounds right, but we’d caution that exit polls are notoriously unreliable. County data, on the other hand, is rock-solid…
To put that in simple terms: Pretty much the entire country shifted toward Trump. That includes deep-blue strongholds. The New York Post reported Wednesday morning that Harris was leading New York by a little more than 11% with 95% of votes counted—the worst performance by a Democrat in the Empire State since Michael Dukakis in 1988. Trump cracked 30% in New York City—also the best performance by a Republican since 1988, driven by a 35% improvement in the Bronx relative to 2020 and improvements of 20% and 16.5% in Manhattan and Queens, respectively. Finally, Trump blew the doors off of several heavily minority counties across the country, flipping Florida’s Osceola County (home to a large Puerto Rican population) and Texas’s 97% Hispanic Starr County. He won the latter by nearly 16% after losing it by 5% to Biden—a 21-point swing in four years. It was, as Ryan Girdusky observed on X, the first time Starr County had voted for a Republican since 1892.
We’ve seen some talk of a “realignment election,” with the Republicans broadening their appeal among the multiracial working class while the Democrats become more entrenched in affluent white suburbs. We’ll have to wait for more detailed demographic breakdowns to say for sure, but what the above table suggests to us is something different: a “whole of society” (to borrow a term) rejection of Kamala Harris and her party. Punchbowl’s congressional reporter, Max Cohen, cited a Democratic House source this morning who summed up the result nicely: “This was a total and complete repudiation of the Democratic Party. People are not buying what we’re selling. Period.”
Now that we have the election results, it appears that the gender gap actually shrunk.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won women by a 15-point margin, 57% to 42%. This year, Vice President Kamala Harris won women by a much smaller 8-point, 53% to 45% margin.
But while the gap between men and women actually shrank this year, another gap widened. In 2020, married voters narrowly chose President Donald Trump by a 7-point, 53% to 46% margin. This year that margin grew to 13 points at 56% to 43%.
For all the talk of Trump’s problem with women, Trump actually won married women by three points, 51 to 48. To repeat, Trump won a majority of not just married white women, but a majority of all married women.
Trump also handily won married men 60-38 and he even eked out a victory among unmarried men 49-47. Where Trump got crushed was among unmarried women, who chose Harris (who didn’t get married until age 50, by the way) by a 60-38 margin.
Republicans trimmed the Democratic advantage in Harris County. Harris won Harris County by 5 points, but four years ago Biden won it by 12. Likewise, Ted Cruz lost Harris County (where he lives) by 9 points, but in 2018, the year of Betomania, he lost it by 17 points. As I keep reminding people, Harris County was a competitive Republican county not that long ago, and Bush43 won it in 2004.
The editor in chief of @sciam, Laura Helmuth, has increasingly pushed the publication to take ideological stances on scientific issues, such as gender medicine. Despite evidence that when Nature endorsed Joe Biden, this compromised readers’ trust, she had SciAm endorse Harris. https://t.co/QjyNP17wJw
Voters in the state [reversed] course after previously supporting a measure that lightened penalties for theft and otherwise gutted crime-control efforts in this state. California Proposition 36, also known as the “Allows Felony Charges and Increases Sentences for Certain Drug and Theft Crimes” measure, passed with over 70% of the vote.
Proposition 36 would walk back much of the decade-old Proposition 47, turning some theft misdemeanors into felonies, requiring a warning about a possible murder charge for selling or providing drugs, and creating a new “treatment-mandated felony,” according to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office.
…[T]he Family Business Association of California has called Proposition 47 “catastrophic” for the state, saying homelessness has gone up by 51% and smash-and-grab crimes have cost businesses nearly $9 billion a year. It says Proposition 36 will fix a loophole in Proposition 47 that allows thieves to take less than $950 in property from different stores and remain a misdemeanor.
Under Proposition 36, theft would be classified as a felony offense if the suspect has two or more past convictions for certain theft crimes, such as shoplifting, burglary and carjacking. The sentence would then be up to three years in county jail or state prison.
With 51 percent of the vote reported, Proposition 33—which would have repealed all state-level limitations on local rent control policies—is capturing the support of just 38 percent of voters. The New York Times is declaring the initiative done and dusted.
This is the third failed ballot initiative sponsored by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF) that would have loosened or repealed California’s state-level limits on rent control. Prop. 33 could also be the AHF’s last ballot initiative.
That’s thanks to the apparent (narrow, but not yet confirmed) victory for Proposition 34, which would effectively prevent AHF from spending money on political activism.
Prop. 34 requires beneficiaries of federal discount prescription drug programs to spend 98 percent of their revenue on direct patient care.
AHF benefits from just such a federal program that requires pharmaceutical companies to sell their drugs at discounted rates to hospitals and other organizations that primarily serve low-income patients. Those discount drug–buying organizations are then allowed to bill federal insurance programs like Medicare and Medicaid the standard reimbursement rates for those drugs.
The AHF has benefited handsomely from this program through its network of discount pharmacies serving AIDS patients. It has spent the proceeds on the heterodox pet causes of AHF President Michael Weinstein, which includes supporting rent control policies.
And the beat goes on. “Leftist Arrested for Threatening to Kill Trump and Conservative Christians if Trump Wins.” “Isaac Sissel, a 25-year-old from Ann Arbor, Michigan, has been charged by the Department of Justice following an online threat of political violence.”
Rasmussen crows about getting things right, including trump winning the popular vote. “What you probably heard on the media, over and over again like a mantra, is that Donald Trump has a hard ceiling at 47%. No, he’s been at 49% this entire time. Turns out Kamala Harris is the one with the ceiling. And the reason that it came out that way is because all of their polls are bogus, they’re leftward leaning, they always show that Donald Trump has a favorability disadvantage.” Also:
This is the shill period right here. Boom! All of a sudden Trump dropped a point when Kamala Harris went in the race. It’s like everybody gave her a shove to get her over the starting line, and then they massively shift left. They shilled for Harris all fall, and then right at the end they decided ‘Well, it’s time to save our credibility,’ and Trump, look at that, all of a sudden Trump got this great momentum. Where’d it come from? Oh, he never lost it. This is all fake all here this whole period, and Trump was actually up in the national popular vote and nobody said sorry.
There were apparently no broken water pipes, no 3 AM ballot drops, no other shenanigans so widespread and outlandish that they were able to undo what amounts to a small red wave.
Donald Trump has finally won a Presidential election beyond the margin of fraud. Final polls had Trump winning in all the swing states, and it looks like he won all seven: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. Sometimes Minnesota was included in the list of swing states, but Harris did manage to hold onto that (so I guess the Walz pick did accomplish something). It even looks like Trump will handily win the symbolic popular vote, the first Republican to do so since George W. Bush in 2004.
Republicans have retaken control of the Senate, knocking off Democratic incumbents in Ohio and Montana, picking up West Virginia from the retiring Joe Manchin, will likely pick up Pennsylvania, and currently hold a razor-thin edge in Nevada. Unlike 2016 and 2020, this year Trump had some modest coattails.
This was a very solid win for Trump, but not a GOP landslide on the order of 1984 or 1994. But it does show signs of being a realigning election, with Trump continuing to increase his shares of black and Hispanic voters, as well as working class voters of all stripes.
I should be ecstatic. Actually, I’m more tired and relieved, since it seems like I’ve been running flat out the last two weeks, so I’ll make this short.
Tomorrow we’ll examine whether Democrats have learned anything from this defeat, or if they’re even capable of learning…
Following an awesome 2.5 hour podcast with Elon Musk, Joe Rogan announced his endorsement of Donald Trump.
In a post on X dropping the podcast, Rogan said of Musk “He makes what I think is the most compelling case for Trump you’ll hear, and I agree with him every step of the way. For the record, yes, that’s an endorsement of Trump.”
Trump thanked Rogan:
Nuggets from the interview:
Musk and Rogan discussed how an influx of illegal migrants to swing states followed by some sort of amnesty program would turn the country into a one-party state.
Vote for @realDonaldTrump or the Dems will legalize so many illegals in swing states that this will be the last real election in America. @JoeRogan agrees.
Rogan and Musk both note they were formerly Democrats…
The Georgia Supreme Court quashes a plan to cheat with late ballots in one county. “The Georgia Supreme Court ordered the Cobb board to keep separate the absentee ballots of those voters that are received after the deadline on election day but before November 8 in a secure, safe, and sealed container separate from other voted ballots,’ WSB reported. ‘The court also ordered the board to notify the voters by email, text, or public announcement of the change,” the report continues. At this point, all votes will need to be in by 7 p.m. on Election Day.'” (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
Tomorrow it’s finally election day, so here’s a small pre-election LinkSwarm:
“Fifth Circuit Ruling Restores the ‘Day’ to Election Day. Court finds federal law requires mail ballots to arrive by Election Day and preempts state laws to the contrary.”
A ruling by a federal appellate court returns the “day” to Election Day in at least three states including Texas.
The U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an opinion Friday that federal law requires mail ballots to arrive by Election Day and preempts any state laws to the contrary.
Opinions issued by the Fifth Circuit set precedent for the states of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas, but the court’s ruling is expected to have national impact.
The Republican National Committee and Mississippi Republican Party sued in January to challenge a Mississippi law that counts mail-in ballots that arrive up to five days after Election Day.
Mississippi changed its election laws during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic to extend the acceptance period for absentee ballots.
“Federal law requires voters to take timely steps to vote by Election Day. And federal law does not permit the State of Mississippi to extend the period for voting by one day, five days, or 100 days,” stated Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham, writing on behalf of a three-judge panel:
If only we could get blue states outside the Fifth Circuit to obey those guidelines…
Presently, the Democrat nominee’s presidential bid exemplifies why understanding what a campaign is doing is the best barometer of how a candidate is performing with the electorate—not a poll.
On the micro-level, one can view the Harris campaign’s targeting of individual constituencies, which have traditionally comprised integral parts of the Democrat coalition. From young African-American men to Hispanics to Arab-Americans to Jewish-Americans, the Harris campaign’s assumed, almost unanimous, and necessary support has been lacking. As a result, we see not only an increase in her campaign’s messaging to these constituencies, we see the surreal hectoring of young black males—and males, in general—by surrogates, such as the Obamas. Asking voters to support your candidate indicates your campaign is okay; urging voters to support your candidate indicates your campaign is troubled; criticizing voters as not being “man” enough to vote for your candidate indicates your campaign is cooked. Other targeted messages abound within the Harris campaigns, including the emphasis on increased federal spending within the African-American community (in one of the most patronizingly racist appeals imaginable); abortion (though it is hard to imagine those who believe abortion is the overriding issue not already voting for the vice president); and the big lie about “Project 2025” being Donald Trump’s post-election agenda—all of which are designed to unite and rally a presently eroding and unenthusiastic Democrat voter base.
“Democrats undermined by radical agenda. If Kamala Harris loses, she can reflect on her party’s mania for progressive ideas on immigration, policing and race.”
t wasn’t so long ago that progressives were riding high in the United States. Their radical views set the agenda and tone for the Democratic Party and, especially in cultural areas, dominated discourse. Building in the 2010s and cresting at the start of this decade with the Black Lives Matter protests and the heady early days of the Biden administration, few of their ideas seemed off the table.
Defund the police and empty the jails? Sure! Abolish the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency and decriminalise the border? Absolutely! Get rid of fossil fuels and have a Green New Deal? Definitely! Demand trillions of dollars for a “transformational” Build Back Better bill? We’re just getting started! Promote DEI and the struggle for “equity” (not equal opportunity) everywhere? It’s the only way to fight privilege! Insist that a new ideology around race and gender should be accepted by everyone? Only a bigot would resist!
In reality, a lot of these ideas were terrible and most voters outside the precincts of the progressive left itself were never interested in them. That was true from the get-go but now the backlash against these ideas is strong enough that it cannot be ignored. As a result, politics is adjusting and the progressive moment is well and truly over.
Astute observers on the left acknowledge this, albeit with an undertone of sadness. So how did the progressive moment fall apart? It is not hard to think of some reasons.
Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it. When Joe Biden came into office, he immediately issued a series of executive orders loosening the rules for handling illegal immigrants, a move that was applauded by progressives.
The predictable result was a surge in illegal immigration and the diffusion of these immigrants into overburdened cities, which caused a spike in negative sentiment towards Democrats for letting the situation get out of control. This has resulted in huge advantages for Donald Trump and the Republicans that have continued even as the Biden administration moved in mid-2024 to tighten the border and Kamala Harris runs commercials promising to be tough on border security.
The Democrats should have seen this coming. Polling over the years has consistently shown overwhelming majorities in favour of more emphasis on border security. And now voters are increasingly open to draconian restriction measures. An astonishing 62 per cent of voters in a June CBS News survey supported starting a “new national programme to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living in the US illegally”. Progressives’ failure to understand this reality is a big reason why the progressive moment is over.
Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was another terrible idea and voters hate it too. In the aftermath of the police killing of George Floyd in 2020, the climate for police and criminal justice reform was highly favourable. But Democrats blew the opportunity by allowing the party to be associated with unpopular slogans like “defund the police” that did not appear to take public safety concerns seriously. Democratic non-white and working-class voters tend to live in areas that have more crime and are therefore unlikely to look kindly on any approach that threatens public safety.
A survey conducted for my new report with Yuval Levin, Politics Without Winners: Can Either Party Build a Majority Coalition?, confirmed the strength of these sentiments. By 73 to 25 per cent, voters backed keeping police budgets whole in the interests of public safety over reducing them and transferring money to social services.
Among non-white working-class voters there was a 30-point margin against reducing police budgets, which ballooned to 50 points among moderate to conservative working-class non-whites, the overwhelming majority of this demographic. By contrast, white college-grad liberals favoured reducing police budgets by 20 points. That tells you a lot.
Democrats are the party of voter fraud: “The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has confirmed that hundreds of noncitizens are on Iowa’s voter rolls. And yet, incredibly, the DHS refuses to share who these individuals are with state officials.” Let’s hope its only hundreds…
