Posts Tagged ‘Demograhics’

Texas Statistics Roundup

Monday, February 5th, 2024

Longtime readers will remember that I used to do a regular Texas vs. California roundup of the respective directions of the two biggest states in the union, until that just became too big a pain to keep doing. We now have enough data of how Democrats have ruined single party California to just take it for granted that its slide into the toilet will continue unabated.

But the latest data on how Texas continues to grow by leaps and bounds is worth taking a look at.

  • The state population continues to grow.

    New population estimates have been released, and once again Texas gained far more residents than any other state. The US population increased by a little more than 1.6 million people during the 12 months ending in July 2023. That’s a rise of just 0.5%, but it’s better than the 0.4% increase in 2022 or 2021’s 0.2% gain. Migration was up, and there was a drop in deaths (though they remain well above pre-COVID levels).

    About 87% of the increase was concentrated in the South. More than 706,000 people were added to the region due to net domestic migration, with almost 500,000 from net international migration.

    The increase in Texas was 473,453 (about 1,300 people per day), followed by Florida (up 365,205). South Carolina and Florida were the two fastest-growing states in percentage terms, increasing by 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively. The Texas pace was just slightly under 1.6%.

    Eight states saw their population fall in 2023 including California (‑75,423), Hawaii (‑4,261), Illinois (‑32,826), Louisiana (‑14,274), New York (‑101,984), Oregon (‑6,021), Pennsylvania (‑10,408), and West Virginia (‑3,964).

  • Next up: Texas is the second youngest state in the union. At an average age of 36, Texas is only behind Utah at 32 (which I’m presuming is all those marriage and children-minded Mormons).
  • Finally, in an important economic indicator for the state, the Texas oil and gas industry set new production records.

    Texas’ oil and gas industry continued to one-up itself in 2023, setting new records for production, exports, taxes paid, and more, according to a new report.

    The Texas Oil and Gas Association’s (TXOGA) 2023 annual report showed the state’s industry produced 5.5 million barrels per day of crude oil and 31.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas — both the highest in the U.S. If it were its own country, Texas would place fourth on the hierarchy of oil-producing nations behind the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

    “American energy leadership starts in Texas and our nation, our economy and our world are better because of the unparalleled stewardship of Texas oil and natural gas companies,” said TXOGA President Todd Staples.

    “2023 was such a blockbuster year that the Texas oil and natural gas industry effectively rewrote its record book, clocking unmatched economic and energy achievements across the board.”

    According to TXOGA, members of the industry paid over $9 billion in oil and gas severance taxes to the state in 2023 — revenues that fund the state’s savings account and highway fund. Overall, $26.3 billion in state and local taxes were paid by oil and gas companies last year, edging out 2022’s previous record high.

    TXOGA listed out property taxes paid by the industry broken down by county and school district.

    The industry continues its strong rebound from the global turmoil wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic, during which West Texas intermediate prices plunged to negative levels. In 2022, the industry accounted for 6 percent of the state’s gross domestic product.

    The industry employs over 480,000 people in Texas with an average annual wage of $124,000.

    Just as in previous years, the Texas formula of freedom, low taxes, low regulation, the rule of law and small government continues to pay dividends.

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    Posted in Democrats, Regulation, Republicans | 4 Comments »

    China’s Last Year?

    Saturday, May 21st, 2022

    Peter Zeihan is back with another provocative video (filmed at the Eisenhower Naval School) that suggests that China faces such massive problems that collapse may be imminent. “I see China with not just a demographic failure, but a failure of leadership, a failure of policy, an agricultural failure, and an energy failure, all at the same time. It is
    entirely possible that this is the last year of the People’s Republic.”

    Some of this (especially the demographic collapse) we’ve covered here before. Takeaways:

  • “China was already the fastest aging society in human history with the biggest sex imbalance. We already knew that their economic model would not match up with this demography this decade, we always knew that the economic collapse of China was coming.” And that was before we found China had over-counted their prime working age population by 100 million.
  • “I don’t see how China survives as a single political entity, much less a globally significant one. I don’t see how it survives this decade with these numbers, because this suggests that the Chinese population peaked back in 2003, and that Chinese economic efficiency probably peaked around the same time.”
  • Chinese labor is no longer cost-competitive with other Asian countries like Thailand or The Philippines, or Mexico. “This is the fastest labor [wage] appreciation in human history, including during the black death, including during all wars. So we’re looking at a 15-fold increase since 1999, [while] their labor effectiveness productivity is probably only increased by a factor of two, maybe three.”
  • “There is not an industrial process that is done in China that can’t be done in North America at a lower cost, because our labor is so much more productive, our energy is so much cheaper, our supply lines are so much shorter and you can produce stuff where people actually live.”
  • “The only reason we think of China as a major industrial player is because of the sunk cost of the preexisting industrial plant.”
  • “You don’t rebuild that somewhere else overnight. But it is happening. The United States is already in the process as its fastest industrialization, even faster than what we did during World War II.” That’s some mighty bold talk, but the U.S. population is roughly 2.5X larger than at the start of World War II.
  • “We probably need to double the size of our industrial plant in the next 5-10 years. That’ll be awkward, expensive, inflationary, but on the other side of it, we will have a far more insulated and secure supply chain system. The problem is just getting from here to there, and that is not a straight line.”
  • He reiterates all the reason why Russia’s debacle in Ukraine has China freaking out about their fading chances for taking Taiwan.

    The Chinese plan has always been to let the Russians go first, just as a proof of concept. So their thinking was a fast war that conquers Taiwan in a matter of days, that imposes a done deal upon the world, and everyone just sucks it up and takes it, because China is too economically powerful to be challenged. And once you hold the territory, there’s no point in going to a broad scale war against the Chinese when it’s already happened. That’s always been their plan.

    Oh my.

    With the Russians, they have had every aspect of all of their planning for the last 40 years set on fire and burned to ash in less than a month. So number one it will not be a quick war, because Ukraine was one of the world’s less militarily competent countries in the first place…

    I think this statement may have been true in 2014, but I don’t think it was true by the time Russia invaded. Ukraine professionalized and modernized their military with considerable help and guidance from western militaries, and developed a competent officer and NCO core (partially thanks to experience with the low-intensity conflict in Donbas).

    …and they’re still holding out against the Russians. Taiwan has been preparing for this war since 1955. Taiwan has a moat. Taiwan has a nuclear program that started in 1974, so if we have a two-month accumulation of Chinese forces getting ready to push, the Taiwanese will see it because this is the only national security question that they pay any attention to, and they will make a nuclear device. And so the only way that the Chinese can even make an attempt on Taiwan is to text all of their soldiers at the same time and just say everyone get to the coast take a fishing boat with your buddies and start moving on Taiwan. They know it is going to cost them a million troops just to get there.

    I find this scenario unlikely, and even less likely to succeed.

  • “Now they know from Ukraine that it’s not going to be a pushover. [Taiwan] is mountainous, it’s forested as opposed to Ukraine, which is flat and open.”
  • Then there are the sanctions:

    Russia has many flaws, but they’re a massive producer of food and energy products. If you put the sanctions that we have put against Russia onto China, oh my. China imports 85% of their energy, 85% of that from the Persian Gulf, and they import 85% of inputs that are necessary to grow their food. So you would have an industrial collapse, a civilizational breakdown, and mass famine within six months, and then you would probably lose a half a billion Chinese over the course of the next year to famine.

    Again, I think this is overstated, as there would be enough countries willing to break sanctions, and enough radical actions China could take (conquer Mongolia and parts of Siberia for farming, throw off all Pacific fishing limits, etc.) to avoid the worst case famine scenario. Not that they wouldn’t be in a world of hurt…

  • The one that has scared the Chinese the most are the boycotts. BP and Halliburton didn’t have to leave, they weren’t doing anything that was sanctioned, but the super majors and the oil services firms and countless other firms left on a moral imperative prompted by individual shareholders and consumers. And in China, the idea that the average Joe or Jane can influence policy is so antithetical to their mindset that they had no idea this was even possible, much less it was going to happen. So everything that the Chinese have based their system and their strategic policy on for the last 30 years has been proven in the last two months to be utterly wrong.”

    • My judgement of Zeihan’s analysis is that he’s more right than wrong, but has a tendency to overstate his case. Still, a worldwide inflationary spiral and energy shortage is the sort of thing that’s likely to destabilize a lot of governments worldwide, and China’s economy is built on more smoke and mirrors than most.

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    Posted in Communism, Economics, Foreign Policy, Military, video | 27 Comments »

    Barry Smitherman Is Not Helping Himself

    Tuesday, September 10th, 2013

    In the last two weeks, Barry Smitherman has put his foot in it twice, committing unforced errors in his quest to move up from the Railroad Commission to the Attorney General’s office.

    First, he said that America’s low birth-rate was a long-term threat to the nation and that many aborted babies “would have voted Republican.”

    The first assertion is plausible (albeit a long-term concern), but very far indeed from the purvey of the Texas Attorney General. The second statement, in addition to being statistically dubious (minorities tend to both have abortions and vote Democratic at a much higher rate than whites), is offensive because it takes a profound moral issue and trivializes it by turning it into a partisan issue.

    Smitherman could easily have avoided the problem by merely stating “I am strongly Pro-Life, and as Attorney General I will protect the unborn and defend Texas laws restricting abortion.” This is a plausible, principled, focused response that presents a much smaller attack surface for the opposition.

    As if shooting himself in the foot wasn’t sufficient, Smitherman promptly took his gun out of the holster again, took aim, and shot himself in the other foot, stating:

    “We are uniquely situated because we have energy resources, fossil and otherwise, and our own independent electrical grid. Generally speaking, we have made great progress in becoming an independent nation, an ‘island nation’ if you will, and I think we want to continue down that path so that if the rest of the country falls apart, Texas can operate as a stand-alone entity with energy, food, water and roads as if we were a closed-loop system.”

    With just a little editing, Smitherman could have sounded far-sighted rather than kooky, emphasizing keeping Texas prosperous, and our infrastructure working, no matter the challenges or difficulties in the rest of the nation. However, when you start speaking of “an independent nation,” then you’ve stopped making sense and started to play footsie with the “Secede!” kooks.

    As a science fiction writer, I can spin a number of vaguely plausible (but unlikely) scenarios in which Texas might secede from the United States. Hell, I can even think of situations where I might push for such action myself (if the feds abolished private property and civilian firearms ownership, I’d be headed for the barricades). What all those scenarios have in common is that none of them are particularly likely, certainly not in the short term, and probably not in the medium term even. (And good freaking luck “seceding” from hyperinflation, a far more likely “doomsday” scenario than any which result in Texas becoming its own country again.)

    Look, I’m a native Texan. I’m proud of the state’s heritage as an independent nation, and do believe that (if we had to) Texas could succeed and thrive as an independent nation. But talk about secession (and the “War of Northern Aggression”) is only get a rise out of the yankees, and no one who takes it seriously should be holding statewide elective office. The United States of America will survive Obama, and there’s a difference between prepping and conspiratorial doomsday mongering. (And “closed-loop” economic autarky is loser economics.)

    Moreover, even in that extremely unlikely scenario, I fail to see how the Attorney General of Texas would have a leading role in such preparations. The fact that Smitherman brought it up suggests (again) that he lacks the focus and message discipline necessary to be Attorney General.

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    Posted in Elections, Texas | 1 Comment »

    Texas to Gain Four House Seats in Redistricting

    Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

    The census data has finally been released, and Texas will gain four seats in the U.S. House. (Here’s a map breaking down which districts have gained or lost population, and by how much.) Keep in mind that at least one or two of those seats will have to be “majority minority” Hispanic seats to comply with the Voting Rights Act.

    The only other state to gain more than one House seat was Florida, which gained two. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington state each gained one.

    Ohio and New York will each lose two seats, while Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will each lose one.

    The total U.S. population is now 308,745,538, a 9.7% increase from 2000.

    The states gaining seats are predominately Republican, while the states losing seats are predominately Democratic, a trend that’s been going on since at least the 1980s. This, along with newly Republican majorities in many of the statehouses that will control redistricting, is the reason some analysts believe that Republicans will control the House at least through 2012, and possibly beyond.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »

    Mark Steyn on The Greek’s Welfare State Tragedy (And Our Own)

    Sunday, February 28th, 2010

    I’ve talked about the problems facing countries like Greece and Spain before.

    The problem with this Mark Steyn piece isn’t what to quote, but rather what not to quote. It’s filled with the usual Steyn pith, vigor, and remorseless demographic logic.

    While President Obama was making his latest pitch for a brand new, even more unsustainable entitlement at the health care “summit,” thousands of Greeks took to the streets to riot. An enterprising cable network might have shown the two scenes on a continuous split screen – because they’re part of the same story. It’s just that Greece is a little further along in the plot: They’re at the point where the canoe is about to plunge over the falls. America is further upstream and can still pull for shore, but has decided instead that what it needs to do is catch up with the Greek canoe. Chapter One (the introduction of unsustainable entitlements) leads eventually to Chapter 20 (total societal collapse): The Greeks are at Chapter 17 or 18.

    What’s happening in the developed world today isn’t so very hard to understand: The 20th century Bismarckian welfare state has run out of people to stick it to. In America, the feckless insatiable boobs in Washington, Sacramento, Albany and elsewhere are screwing over our kids and grandkids. In Europe, they’ve reached the next stage in social democratic evolution: There are no kids or grandkids to screw over.

    Snippage.

    So you can’t borrow against the future because, in the most basic sense, you don’t have one. Greeks in the public sector retire at 58, which sounds great. But, when 10 grandparents have four grandchildren, who pays for you to spend the last third of your adult life loafing around?

    Snippage.

    When seeking to ingratiate himself with conservative audiences, President Ford liked to say: “A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything you have.” Which is true enough. But there’s an intermediate stage: A government big enough to give you everything you want isn’t big enough to get you to give any of it back. That’s the point Greece is at. Its socialist government has been forced into supporting a package of austerity measures. The Greek people’s response is: Nuts to that. Public sector workers have succeeded in redefining time itself: Every year, they receive 14 monthly payments. You do the math. And for about seven months’ work – for many of them the workday ends at 2:30 p.m. When they retire, they get 14 monthly pension payments. In other words: Economic reality is not my problem. I want my benefits. And, if it bankrupts the entire state a generation from now, who cares as long as they keep the checks coming until I croak?

    We hard-hearted, small-government guys are often damned as selfish types who care nothing for the general welfare. But, as the Greek protests make plain, nothing makes an individual more selfish than the socially equitable communitarianism of big government. Once a chap’s enjoying the fruits of government health care, government-paid vacation, government-funded early retirement, and all the rest, he couldn’t give a hoot about the general societal interest. He’s got his, and to hell with everyone else. People’s sense of entitlement endures long after the entitlement has ceased to make sense.

    Read the whole thing.

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    Posted in Economics, Foreign Policy, Welfare State | 5 Comments »