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Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for January 28, 2019

Monday, January 28th, 2019

This week in the clown car update: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg is In, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is All But In, and Bobby Francis O’Rourke is sounding a lot more Hamlet-like than heretofore. And a very, very familiar name is once again making noises about a run…

According to this Zogby poll, everything is coming up Milhouse Biden. Biden leads field with 27%, well ahead of Sanders (18%), Warren (9%), Bloomberg (8%), with Harris and O’Rourke at 6%. McAuliffe, Gabbard and Castro all poll at 0%, behind even John Delaney at 1%.

In an Emerson poll of announced candidates, “Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads the field with 43%, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 19%, and Julian Castro is at 12%, with no other candidate reaching double digits.”

538 has their weeekly update of candidate and potential candidate doings. I haven’t looked at it much because that would be cheating.

Oh, and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz says he’s considering an independent run for President. That would spice things up nicely, and Democrats are livid the he might split the anti-Trump vote. His net worth is estimated at just under $3 billion, so he could probably self-fund a serious run.

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out.
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: “I’m thinking about it.” Oh thanks, that’s just super-helpful…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Twitter feed. Here’s an Esquire piece that says Biden should run so he can lose badly for his perfidious gestures towards bipartisanship…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. No announcement, but this week he did some Trump bashing, so of course the media covered it. If he runs it will be on climate change and gun control, which may not be enough intersectional tofu for the SJW faction. He does well in a Quinnipiac poll of New Yorkers.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. This week Vanity Fair critiques Booker’s style. To be fair, there’s a lot there to critique, but I also get the impression that the media want to knock a potential rival for Kamala Harris’ presumed voting block out early.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s boasting about how he could beat Trump in Ohio and New York. Since Hillary beat Trump in New York, the latter is not much of a boast…
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Official website. Facebook page. Twitter feed. Announced this week. First openly gay Presidential candidate to garner any media attention. Served in the Naval Reserve in Afghanistan. Here’s 538 doing the how he could win thing, but even they sound dubious: “Among adults who identified as Democrats, 73 percent of respondents supported gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research Center survey. Independents were close behind at 70 percent. But the same research found support for gay marriage at 51 percent among black adults, an important part of the Democratic coalition.”
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter feed. He hates the fact that you got a tax cut. Also, NBC does some Hispandering about the “historic” nature of his campaign, without ever mentioning the name “Ted Cruz.”
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Maybe? “Clinton is telling people that she’s not closing the doors to the idea of running in 2020,” Zeleny said on Inside Politics. “I’m told by three people that as recently as this week, she was telling people that, given all this news from the indictments, particularly the Roger Stone indictment, she talked to several people, saying ‘Look, I’m not closing the doors to this.'” Fire up the villager’s torches, boys, Baroness Frankenstein is trying to break out of her crypt! (Hat tip: Red State’s Twitter feed.) Upgrade from “Probably Out.”
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. “De Blasio Dead Last Among NYers’ Picks For President, Poll Shows.” To know him is to loath him…
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. “Democratic 2020 presidential candidate John Delaney on Thursday earned the approval of the Nashua Telegraph’s editorial board in New Hampshire.” That and $5…
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. The left-wing hit pieces against Gabbard are coming fast and furious. “Is Tulsi Gabbard the Jill Stein of 2020? The Democratic candidate’s perplexing, Bannonesque foreign policy and passivity toward Assad may make her radioactive. And then there is the homophobia.” Man, she sure has somebody (probably the Harris campaign) worried…
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, and he managed to cave in enough to end the teacher’s strike.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Official website. Official Twitter feed. “Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is a Bizarrely Wretched Public Speaker. Finally a Woman Who Makes Hillary Clinton Look Authentic by Comparison!”
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. Had a kickoff rally in Oakland. She’s stacking her campaign with ex-Hillary Clinton staffers. Because there’s no way that could possibly backfire.

  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. In Iowa.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He wants to run on climate change, but he’s having to deal with a measles outbreak in his state.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In. “Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know about Amy Klobuchar.” “One of her most influential mentors is former vice president Walter Mondale.” And if that doesn’t say “Electoral Juggernaut”…
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. “I will make a decision by March 31.”
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe. “Oregon senator postpones decision on presidential bid.”
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Considering a run. Headed back to New Hampshire February 2nd.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Addition: Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Dropped Out. I wasn’t including this guy because I didn’t think he had any chance, and evidently he came to the same conclusion. Listing him here only because he was included in that Emerson poll.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe? The machine is in place, but where’s the driver? He’s starting to sound a lot more Hamlet-like. “Beto O’Rourke said Friday that it could take him months to decide whether to run for president, adding that he does not want to ‘raise expectations” about a 2020 bid.” Sure doesn’t sound like someone with a fire in the belly to run. Downgrade from Probably In.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. I’m not seeing any signs of a run.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: All but In. Website. Twitter feed. Reports say he is “set to announce he will run for president in 2020.”
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. “Can we win? There is a path. It’s not an easy path. It’s a steep mountain to climb and I’m up for it. Right now, I have to talk with my family.” Also says there’s a “chance” he could quarterback the Rams next year.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. She wants an unconstitutional wealth tax. In a sign that America’s opioid epidemic has gotten out of hand, George Will calls Warren “Democrat’s Thatcher, if they dare.” Trump Derangement Syndrome is a helluva drug…
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Yet here’s a Rolling Stone interview with him, because I run a full service blog. “In a year when the progressive Democratic platform is coalescing around variations of Medicare-for-All, free college and the Green New Deal, presidential candidate Andrew Yang stands apart — with a bold proposal to provide a ‘Freedom Dividend’ of $1,000 a month to every adult in America.” I look forward to the forthcoming Yang Free Pony Proposal…

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    Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for January 21, 2019

    Monday, January 21st, 2019

    This week in the clown car update: Lots climbing in, one getting out. New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and California Senator Kamala Harris are both In and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey. JR. is Out. Plus a few more no-hope longshots considering a run.

    Before we get to the individual candidates, here’s a table from that January 14 Marist poll on Democratic contenders:

    Usual poll caveats apply, but Biden has a huge advantage over the rest of the field in both favorability and name recognition. And for all the Betomania among the chattering classes, the majority of possible Democratic voters have never even heard of him. Highest unfavorables are Bernie Sanders (bitter Hillary cadres at work there) and Michael Bloomberg. In fact, Bloomberg is alone in having a net favorability rating of zero.

    538 offers up speculation on how longshot Democrats could potentially build a winning coalition, with pentagonal diagrams that look vaguely like cutaways of a Wankel rotary engine. They’re also doing a similar weeekly update of candidate and potential candidate doings that I only noticed when I was about 80% through this post.

    Oh, and National Review says all the Democratic candidates suck.

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out, considering a senate run instead.
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Addition: Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Considering a run. Bennet told Colorado Public Radio he was seriously considering a run, and just changed his Twitter handle from “BennetForCO” to “MichaelBennet.”
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. His completely-devoid-of-interest Twitter feed. There was talk of Biden announcing on Tuesday, but he also has an event in Grand Prairie, Texas on Thursday. Chris Smith at Vanity Fair says Biden is the sell high candidate. Since this comes from Vanity Fair, my working assumption is that it must be wrong…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. Says he’s not too old to run (the same age as Bernie Sanders). That National Review piece says “He doesn’t mesh with the Democratic party we see every day in the national media, but he’s intelligent, shrewd, and willing to spend more money than Croesus on securing the nomination and defeating Trump. Only a fool would dismiss him.”
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. New Jersey law lets him run for both the Presidency and for reelection to the senate simultaneously. He picked up the all-important Jimmy Carter endorsement. This is two Democratic Presidential Clown Car updates in a row I’ve mentioned Jimmy Carter. I’m not such which of the seven seals that opens.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s visiting a bunch of early primary states, including Iowa.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Probably in. Has a Facebook page. This week he got a fawning Washington Post profile.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out. “After two months of considering it, I have concluded that the best way for me to fight for the America that so many of us believe in is to stay in the U.S. Senate and not run for the presidency in 2020.”
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Campaigning in New Hampshire, he says he would not pardon Trump. Also promises not to punch out Mike Tyson.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue. Beautiful plumage…
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. He’s sure acting like he’s running. “People who criticize de Blasio for being more interested in national politics than the local scene aren’t wrong.” Translation: As Mayor, he sucks!
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. Has raised nearly $5 million. I misspelled his name “Delany” last week and nobody noticed. Want to know his views on Israel? I didn’t think so, but here they are anyway.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter feed. Howard Dean says she’s not qualified to be President. And if anyone knows about not being qualified to be President…
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, but it’s sort of hard to run for president when you have to deal with a teacher’s strike.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Official website. Official Twitter feed. Ended 2018 with over $10 million in her campaign bank account.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. She announced today, Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, as befitting the MSM favorite they hope can re-knit the Obama coalition. The New York Times piece says the date was also meant to evoke Shirley Chisholm, the black Democratic congressman who ran for President in 1972, which suggests that Harris will come in 7th against a nominee who eventually loses 49 states to Trump. Evidently she’s leaning toward Crack Charm City as her headquarters. National Review has “Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know about Kamala Harris,” including her being Willie Brown’s mistress, and her anti-civil liberties stance on things like linking collected DNA evidence to family members and charging the parents of truant kids.
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. No real news, so enjoy the delusional fantasy of two USA Today writers calling for a Hickenlooper-Kaisch national unity ticket. I’m sure the notion was very well-received down at the coffee shop nearest the shuttered offices of The Weekly Standard.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter feed. Here he is yammering about climate change in the Washington Post.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Probably Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In, playing “the family wants me to run” card.
  • New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Because we just haven’t had enough of the Clintons…
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe. Right now he’s making “Fundraising is hard!” sounds. Most recently seen banging the impeachment drum over that Buzzfeed fake Russian collusion “bombshell.”
  • Addition: Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Considering a run. Because there just weren’t enough longshot congressmen on this list to update before.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Probably In. Says he’s hitting the road because he’s “in a funk,” and I’m presuming it’s not the James Brown kind. Between this and the Instagram dentist visit, I’m wondering if O’Rouke is going to be the presidential candidate equivalent of The Woman Who Overshares Her Depression On Facebook Fishing For Sympathy, because that would be both really sad and weirdly hilarious. An Oprah interview looms next month.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. I’m not seeing any signs of a run.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: Probably running. He’s in South Carolina for MLK weekend. I think Bernie likes the attention of running for President too much to stop.
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Still considering.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter feed. She’s also visiting South Carolina.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares.

    • Last week I linked to a prediction market website that had Democratic presidential odds. Last week O’Rourke was on top. This week he’s been eclipsed by Harris. Their current ranked odds on the Dem nominee are:

    1. Kamala Harris
    2. Beto O’Rourke
    3. Joe Biden
    4. Bernie Sanders
    5. Elizabeth Warren

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections | 3 Comments »

    Daily Kos: Man, We Sure Love Us Some Old White Heterosexual Millionaires!

    Wednesday, January 9th, 2019

    Lefty site DailyKos has released their first Presidential straw poll of 2019. Results?


    ELIZABETH WARREN 22%
    BETO O’ROURKE 15
    KAMALA HARRIS 14
    JOE BIDEN 14
    BERNIE SANDERS 11
    UNSURE 9
    OTHER 9
    CORY BOOKER 3
    JULIAN CASTRO 1
    KRISTEN GILLIBRAND 1

    So: Of their top five choices, all are straight, four are white millionaires, three are men, three will be over the age of 71 on January 20, 2021, two will be 78 or older, and none are Hispanic.

    The outliers are Kamala Harris, 55, with a net worth of $3,310,537 (a neat trick for someone who has been continuously in government positions since 1990), and Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, 46, with an estimated worth of only $9 million. (Forbes wants us to know that his father-in-law, William Sanders, is probably only worth a mere $500 million. Also, as far as I can tell, William Sanders is not related to Bernie Sanders.)

    The low ranking of Bernie Sanders may be a surprise to those who don’t follow every twist and turn of leftwing politics, but Kos deliberately drove out the Bernie Brigades in 2016 for the high crime of complaining about Hillary rigging the primary.

    So too is the high standing of Warren, whose “Hey, I’m just a common person drinking beer” Instagram video drew such ridicule, surprising.

    For all that Democrats swear up and down they’re the party of “people of color,” and the heavy influence of SJW “intersectionality” on the party’s rhetoric, four out of their top five Presidential candidates sure don’t show it.

    Maybe the real driver of the Democratic Party isn’t intersectionality, but middle-aged feminists looking for the next Hillary. (And maybe the young feminists find O’Rourke “dreamy.”)

    Or maybe I just don’t know enough about Daily Kos biases relative to the rest of the left in 2019. 2016 showed that lots of accepted wisdom about who shows up to vote for who in presidential election primaries was wrong.

    Or maybe straw polls this far out are simply meaningless. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Ben Carson were mopping up straw poll victories back in 2015…

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Social Justice Warriors | No Comments »

    Your Obligatory 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Horse Race Roundup

    Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019

    I hope you appreciate my extreme laziness restraint in not putting a 2020 Presidential Race Roundup up until now.

    Here’s the list of Democrats widely contemplated as be willing to climb into the clown car. I’ve divided them into two categories: Shiny Things and Old Warhorses.

    Shiny Things

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Doubtful. Says she’s open to the idea but hasn’t made any moves to run. Hard to see national donors backing her over Kamala Harris’ more obviously viable campaign.
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out, much to the disappointment of conservative pundits nationwide.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Maybe. He formed an exploratory PAC in 2017 and nobody noticed.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Acting like he’s running, despite no one knowing who he is. As a 36-year old gay white man, he only checks off one box in the Social Justice Warrior sweepstakes. He has twice Andrew Yang’s chance at being elected (2 x 0 = ___).
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: Probably running. Evidently he didn’t want to let Beto O’Rourke take the “can’t win statewide in Texas so might as well run nationally” sweepstakes by default. Has the advantage (unlike O’Rourke) of being an actual Hispanic, but hasn’t made much of a national impression (or even a statewide impression).
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delany: Definitely in. AKA “Who?” Announced in 2017. He’s competing for the same “rich old white guy with the blue collar Catholic background” niche as Joe Biden, assuming that niche even exists for Democrats in 2020. You may think the guy has zero traction, but he’s already raised nearly $5 million.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: Running. As hard-left as Kamala Harris, except younger and prettier (not that any Democratic activist would admit that, even with a gun to their head). Doesn’t have Harris’ fundraising base or national media following. Sanders supporter in 2016, and she could be poised to pick up some Bernie Brigades if Sanders opts out.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run. Hard to see where he finds running room, with Kamala Harris sucking up all the California money. Thomas Bradley is the standard for Los Angeles mayors running for higher office: A series of stinging defeats. But Democrats could do worse, and almost certainly will.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably not. Beto O’Rourke raised a zillion dollars to overperform and still lose in 2018, while Gillum raised far more modest sums to underperform to lose a winnable race.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: Almost certainly in: Hasn’t announced yet, but is acting like a candidate and raising money. The Social Justice Warrior and New York Times (but I repeat myself) favorite.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Probably In. Hasn’t announced, but Ann Althouse thinks he’s running based on this video, and I don’t see any reason for him not to run, with high favorables, strong polling and having just received a zillion fawning national media profiles. The rules used to be that you couldn’t run for President if you lost your last race. But Hillary Clinton ignored that and won the nomination, and Richard Nixon won the presidency despite two high profile losses (the 1960 Presidential race and the 1962 California Governor’s race). And all sorts rules got thrown out with Trump’s election.
  • Incoming New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run, as she won’t turn 35 until October 13, 2024. Duh. Listed only for the sake of completeness.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Probably running. Seen most recently getting pantsed by Nancy Pelosi. Basically Beto without the fake Hispanic name, the senate run, the huge fundraising, or the fawning media coverage. So not like Beto at all…
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Probably running. Why is anybody’s guess. Joking about nuking gun owners may attract media attention, but voting for an unknown white guy with 1980s hair doesn’t seem to be on the Democratic Party activist agenda these days.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. He’s only a multimillionaire, which won’t get it done as an unknown outsider.
  • Wildcard Random Celebrity: You know some Democratic consultants must be looking high and low for “the Democratic Donald Trump,” the celebrity outsider that comes in and takes a crowded field by storm. Who has the gravitas to pull it off? George Clooney or Brad Pitt, maybe. Other A-listers I can think of have too much baggage (Robert Downey Jr.’s drug convictions, Tom Cruise’s Scientology, Ben Affleck/Matt Damon backing #MeToo targets, etc.) to be serious contenders. Dwayne Johnson says he’s not running (and might be a Republican).
  • Wildcard Random Billionaire: No idea who that would be, except it’s not going be to Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos or Bill Gates. (Have you seen those guys speak?) Tom Steyer, maybe. Given the effectiveness his financial backing has had thus far, he could top the John Connelly in 1980 campaign for most money spent for fewest delegates garnered record.

    • Old Warhorses

    Some are old, and some are very old.

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Waffling. Biden has to think he could have taken Trump if he hadn’t left the field to Hillary. He seems to be laying the groundwork for a run. If elected, Biden would be 78 at his swearing-in ceremony.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Maybe. Says he’ll decide in the next couple of months. Can self-fund, but it’s hard to see how a guy less popular than Rudy Guilianni could do what he didn’t, and he’s sure to get dinged by Democrats for having been elected mayor as a Republican, no matter how nominal.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. Spartacus said he’s considering it. He’s probably in because New Jersey law lets him run for both the Presidency and for reelection to the senate simultaneously. Second only to Elizabeth Warren in diminishing his chances in 2018.
  • Outgoing California Governor Jerry Brown: Maybe. His aura smiles and never frowns. But that speculation is from 2017, and Brown would be 82 come inauguration day. Brown first ran for president in 1976 and ran an effective, underfunded insurgent campaign in 1992.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Considering a run. A moderate from a swing state, Brown has the sort of resume Democrats used to consider for President, but these days he’s looking a lot more like the safe Old White Guy VP choice.
  • Pennsylvania Governor Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Maybe. Hasn’t said yes or no. I could cut-and-paste most of the Sherrod Brown verbiage here. His primary appeal is geographic (Trump won Pennsylvania), which doesn’t seem to matter much to Democratic primary voters. [Corrected. – LP.]
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. She wasn’t even healthy enough to run effectively in 2016, how is she going to take the grind in 2020? So I don’t give much credence to reports she’ll run. Her absence has not made Democratic voting hearts grow fonder. If I had to guess, she’s secretly hoping that Democrats end up with a brokered convention and she emerges as the consensus compromise nominee without having to campaign.
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Probably not. Says he’s not running. We know Cuomo lies, but his declaration, and the fact that so many Democratic-friendly media outlets that have previously given him a pass for his sleaze would attack him to boost other (likely non-male and non-white) contenders will probably keep him out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: All but out. Hasn’t announced he’s not running, but he barely even bothers to show up for his current job. Widely loathed with no national base and no notable fundraising prowess. Other than that he’s in good shape…
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: Probably not. Young by warhorse standards, but she’s been a senator since 2009. Says she’s not running, and I don’t see voters crying out to vote for another female senator from New York…
  • Former Vice President Al Gore: No signs of a run, despite certain Democratic insiders openly pining for him.
  • Outgoing Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. Might be able to run as the “Pro Pot Candidate.” Unless that will be…
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He’s running as the “all in on global warming” president, which I suspect has all the activist cachet of a Presbyterian sermon in a Democratic Party dominated by illegal alien activism and victimhood identity politics.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Probably not. Veep picks used to be considered contenders, but Kaine didn’t exactly set the world on fire. Said he wasn’t running right after Trump’s surprise victory, and hasn’t said anything to change minds since.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Considering running. I don’t see him getting much traction, but he’s rich enough (from marrying well) to self-fund. He and Biden would be the only candidates with notable foreign policy experience (disasterous though it was), but when has that mattered in a recent Democratic Presidential primary?
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Considering a run. A strong contender to snag some Clinton feminist cadres, having not made the many missteps Elizabeth Warren has, but it’s hard to see her gain much fundraising traction.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: leaning toward it. Personally I expect the public appetite for a figure so closely linked to the Clintons to be extremely limited in 2020, and I don’t see any running room for him if any of the higher profile Old White Guys run.
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Considering a run. In the Senate since 2009. Can you be an old warhorse if no one knows who you are?
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out. Both she and her husband say she’s not running. For once we should probably take them at their word…
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out. Says he’s not running, and there’s already enough real and potential Massachusetts candidates in the race.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: Probably running. Getting screwed by Hillary and talk of a “socialist wave” in 2018 (deluded though it was) must be steeling his resolve, even though he’s a year older than Joe Biden.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Probably not running. She says she’s not: “In that political structure — all the non-truths, the bullsh*t, the crap, the nastiness, the backhanded backroom stuff that goes on — I feel like I could not exist. I would not be able to do it. It’s not a clean business. It would kill me.” Translation: I’m just too pure for your rough and tumble politics.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. She’s announced she’s running. After years of self-inflicted wounds, I expect her to lose badly.

    • Am I missing anyone here?

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections | 7 Comments »

    What If You Gave a Netroots Nation And Nobody Came?

    Sunday, August 19th, 2018

    Did you know that the Daily Kos-founded Netroots Nation had their annual conference earlier this month?

    If not, that’s OK. Evidently neither did anyone else.

    Netroots Nation bills itself as “the largest annual conference for progressives.” This year’s conference was plagued with nearly empty events, racial incitement and wild radicalism far outside of the American mainstream, including items for sale with threats of violence.

    This year’s conference just wrapped in New Orleans.

    Wait a minute, how do you throw an under-attended conference in New Orleans? I mean, it’s in New Orleans.

    Of course, the dwindling ranks of Netroot Nation are probably packed with dour feminists and vegetarians, so perhaps New Orleans offers less of an appeal to them than you might think.

    Keynote addresses were delivered at Netroots Nation by Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Cynthia Nixon, and self-described democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. These speakers, and the conference’s legion of panelists, pushed an unrelenting new era of racially-focused activism and organizing.

    The problem was, much of the time there was nobody there to hear it.

    The conference was plagued by nearly empty events. “This is What Democracy Should Look Like” was a panel featuring Atima Omara, A’shanti Gholar, and Carol McDonald. With seating for more than 200 at the event, barely 20 Netroots attendees came to hear.

    Also this:

    “Among the topics at Netroots Nation were race, mobilization, race, voting rights, race, and cultural oppression by the dominant patriarchy.”

    Media reports claim Netroots Nation got its usual 3,000 attendees, but I’m not seeing it in these tweeted photos:

    And here’s Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, supposedly a serious Presidential candidate, speaking to what appears to be a half-full luncheon:

    (Speaking of Booker, he claimed that he had no idea this sign he was holding had anything do do with Israel:

    Which means Cory Booker is either a liar or an idiot…)

    I would think that if they had anywhere close to three thousand people, there would be at least one picture from the event that showed at least a thousand people in one room, and I’m not seeing one anywhere online.

    My impression is that far-left organizations like Netroots Nation suffer from one of the same problems plaguing the libertarians: All chiefs and no indians.

    (Hat tip: NiceDeb.)

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