Posts Tagged ‘Wendy Davis’
Tuesday, April 15th, 2014
Well, this can’t be good news for Team Wendy:
Texas women prefer Republican gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott to self-styled feminist Democratic hopeful Wendy Davis, according to a new survey from a left-leaning polling firm.
According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Davis’ favorability rating is upside down with women, while Abbott is right side up.
Thirty-two percent of women view Davis favorably, while 46 percent view her unfavorably, and 22 percent were not sure. But 35 percent of women viewed Abbott favorably, and only 27 percent said they viewed him unfavorably. Thirty-eight percent weren’t sure.
Abbott also took 49 percent of the female vote in a head-to-head matchup, compared to 41 percent for Davis, with 11 percent unsure.
Also this:
“Women get exhausted with women candidates who say they are pro-woman and then run on issues that real women don’t say are most important to them,” Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway told The Daily Caller.
She added that this is another indication that the Democrats’ “war on women” narrative has run its course.
Let’s hope so.
Poor Wendy. She didn’t start out alienating her supposed base, but she got there as fast as possible…
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, Greg Abbott, polls, Wendy Davis
Posted in Democrats, Texas | 1 Comment »
Friday, April 4th, 2014
My taxes and family health issues have curtailed blogging somewhat, so here are some statewide race updates, some of which stretch back to just after the primary:
The Weekly Standard covers the Abbott campaign.
One Abbott supporter in Edinburg, former state representative Aaron Peña, is a Democrat-turned-Republican with strong ties to the valley. He says his fellow Hispanic Texans may vote Democratic, but they are traditionalists on cultural issues, including abortion. Davis may be popular with the liberal set in Austin, but she doesn’t offer much to Peña’s constituents, he says.
Also this:
Davis herself doesn’t appear to be making much effort to court the Valley vote, or any vote for that matter. She’s noticeably inconspicuous on the trail, and even friendly media have a hard time finding her.
Davis gives a speech in Midland to sparse attendance. “Davis showed up to an almost empty room but despite the crickets, she told me she felt comfortable.” Ouch!
How Davis benefited from her law firm doing government bond work while she was a state senator.
At least she’s changed her logo from the sinking ship, even if the new logo looks a little familiar…
“Two Dewhurst aides quit amid campaign feuding about tactics.” This is not exactly the sign of a well-oiled campaign machine…
Paul Burka even goes so far as to say that Dewhurst is toast: “The reality is that Dewhurst has been politically dead since the night of the Wendy Davis filibuster, and he has no hope to retain his office. Unless something very strange happens, Dan Patrick is a lock to be the state’s next lieutenant governor.” I’d say he’s been politically dead since losing to Ted Cruz in 2012…
Rick Casey not only thinks Dan Patrick will win, he thinks “Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick will be more powerful than Gov. Greg Abbott.” Agree on the first, disagree on the second, mainly because Greg Abbott is a lot more formidable than Dewhurst. It’s an interesting piece, despite making (I believe) some subtly wrong assumptions about Tea Party politics.
State of play piece by Ross Ramsey.
Movement conservatives in Texas — a label that includes fiscal and social conservatives, Tea Partyers and the religious right — seem to be forming up behind Dan Patrick, a state senator running for lieutenant governor; Ken Paxton, a state senator running for attorney general; and Wayne Christian, a former state representative running for railroad commissioner. Each finished ahead of the establishment candidate in his race — in Patrick’s case, the incumbent lieutenant governor, David Dewhurst.
Ramsey also notes money switching to conservative challengers. Plus this: “Every Republican senator has probably given some private thought to state Sen. John Carona’s loss to Donald Huffines, and that kind of private thinking often leads to changed voting patterns.”
Dan Patrick endorsed by Buc-ees. If they throw in free fudge, this race is so over…
Mike Huckabee endorses Ken Paxton. That probably means more to Huckabee than Paxton…
14 Texas state house republicans ask Dan Branch to withdraw.
Democratic Agricultural Commissioner candidate Kinky Friedman calls marijuana farms the future of Texas.
Tags:2014 Attorney General's Race, 2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, Dan Branch, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst, Elections, Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, Kinky Friedman, marijuana, Midland, Mike Huckabee, Paul Burka, Republicans, Rick Casey, Ross Ramsey, Texas, Wendy Davis
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 2 Comments »
Tuesday, March 25th, 2014
Short answer: No. Especially not this year. But Ross Ramsey is probably correct in saying that Kinky Friedman’s run for Agricultural Commissioner has a better chance of winning statewide than any other Democrat. Kinky has higher name recognition and fewer strong negatives than Wendy Davis or anyone else running.
Too bad for him that Democrats are still bitter at him over “ruining” their one chance to take out Rick Perry.
Kinky is a genuine Texas original, and there are a few Republicans I can see myself voting for Friedman over. Unfortunately for him, however, Sid Miller (the likely Republican runoff winner) isn’t one of them.
Of course all this talk may be premature, since Friedman still has to get past primary opponent Jim Hogan on May 27.
However, I believe that Ramsey is wrong when he states that “Friedman’s idea of legalizing marijuana and making it a cash crop in Texas is out of the mainstream and cannot possibly be a winning issue in a Texas election.”
In fact, there is significant sentiment for marijuana legalization on the “libertarian/Tea Party/Leave me the hell alone” right, partially on Tenth Amendment grounds, and there the “legalize it, regulate it, and tax it” sentiment has been respectable on the right at least since 1992 or so. Certainly marijuana legalization wouldn’t pass the legislature, but I believe that in a (theoretical) statewide referendum would come a lot closer to passage this year than Wendy Davis will come to being elected.
Tags:2014 Election, Agricultural Commissioner, Democrats, Jim Hogan, Kinky Friedman, Tenth Amendment, Texas, Wendy Davis
Posted in Democrats, Texas | No Comments »
Monday, March 17th, 2014
Will Franklin has dug even deeper in to the primary voting statistics and they are, if anything, actually worse than previously reported (which were already plenty bad).
A few examples:
Her vote totals were down in the Rio Grande Valley when compared with Bill White.
Bill White’s two Hispanic opponents in 2010 received 2.83% and 4.95% of the statewide primary vote, compared to Davis Opponent Ray Madrigal pulling in just under 21% despite no fundraising and minimal campaigning.
“Despite Wendy Davis’ massive, hyped, well-funded, all-star staffed voter registration effort with Battleground Texas and millions of dollars from out-of-state, today there are 45,000 fewer Texans registered to vote than in November 2012.”
“In Texas’ 5 most populous counties, there were 12,897 fewer total Democratic votes than in 2010 and 62,469 fewer than in 2002.”
“In a practically uncontested primary, Wendy Davis spent more than Bill White in a contested primary, to achieve poorer primary results.”
The total vote margin Greg Abbott received in Harris County alone is almost double the vote margin Davis earned in the five largest counties she won more votes than Abbott in.
Read the whole thing.
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, Battleground Texas, Bill White, Democrats, Elections, Texas, Wendy Davis, WILLisms
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Texas | No Comments »
Saturday, March 8th, 2014
Ace of Spades, showing considerable time, effort, and a somewhat shaky grasp of MS Paint, has produced a single, superginormous .PNG that will annoy everyone without a 30″ Apple Cinema Display that shows, in great detail, why Wendy Davis is doomed.
It’s essentially a color-coded county-by-county breakdown map of Texas that shows negligible voter growth in the most heavily Democratic counties since the Ann Richards—Clayton Williams gubernatorial election of 1990, while East Texas has flipped Republican and the big suburban Republican counties have grown tremendously as of the 2010 Rick Perry-Bill White gubernatorial election.
“The GOP margin out of Montgomery Co ALONE almost completely negates that of the D’s in Harris, Travis, and Bexar Cos combined, falling just 1300 votes short!” [all sic from the PNG]
For those outside the state who may not immediately twig to what that sentence is saying: A single suburban county north of Houston has enough of a Republican margin to negate the Democratic advantage in Houston, Austin and San Antonio combined.
Red areas have gotten redder, blue areas have flipped red or gotten pink, even deep urban areas are less Democratic than they were two decades ago, and the few counties in the Rio Grande Valley who have stayed deep blue have barely added new voters.
All that adds up to Wendy Davis being slaughtered in November.
And Ace’s map only goes up to 2010. Since then, things have gotten even worse for Democrats.
Hey Ace: Is there any reason you couldn’t have stacked the two Texas images vertically? Are you in the pay of the Big Monitor Lobby? Inquiring minds want to know!
Tags:2010 Election, 2014 Election, Ace of Spades, Ann Richards, Bill White, Clayton Williams, Rick Perry, Texas, Wendy Davis
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Thursday, March 6th, 2014
The Texas Tribune has a fascinating chart up showing the cost per vote for Texas races.
A few highlight:
Wendy Davis spent $4,172,161.26 to garner 432,056 votes, or $9.66 a vote.
Greg Abbott spent $8,109,379.17 to garner 1,219,831 votes, or $6.65 a vote.
David Dewhurst spent $4,093,809.73 for 376,164 votes, or $10.88 a vote.
Dan Patrick spent $4,891,374.86 for 550,742 votes, or $8.88 a vote.
The highest amount per vote was spent by Republican Chart Westcott for state House District 108, spending an eye-popping $1,197,762.24 for a measly 3,709 votes, or $322.9 per vote (which did get him into the runoff). Second biggest amount spent for vote? House Speaker (and Tea Party foe) Joe Straus House District 121 (R) spent $2,578,942.72 to get 9,224 votes, or $279.59 a vote. I guess Straus’ special interest backers consider it money well-spent.
Most effective use of money? The two sitting Supreme Court incumbents who didn’t spend anything:
Jeff Brown received 820,558 votes for zero spent.
Phil Johnson received 731,247 votes for zero spent.
Incumbency + Ted Cruz Endorsement = millions, evidently (at least in judicial races).
Now I’m going to post this just to get myself to stop playing with those figures…
Tags:Chart Westcott, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst, fundraising, Greg Abbott, Joe Straus, Ted Cruz, Wendy Davis
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Wednesday, March 5th, 2014
Will Franklin has an interesting piece up detailing just how poorly Democrats did in primary turnout on Tuesday, noting that both the Democratic Party total, and Wendy Davis’ numbers compared to Bill White, were down significantly from 2010. By contrast, “Abbott received 1,219,831 votes, or 91.50% in a four-way primary race. 1,333,010 Republicans voted in the 2014 primary.”
For all the money BattleGround Texas is pouring into the state, Democrats are doing worse than they did in 2010.
Although Franklin doesn’t go into the 2012 numbers, I’d also like to note that overall Democratic votes are down from 590,164 in 2012 to 546,480. Normally a presidential election year will have higher numbers, but there were no big-money, hotly contested races at the top of the Democratic ticket that year. Turnout should have been up this year. It wasn’t.
More Will Franklin:
In short, there is a partisan enthusiasm gap in Texas, and Republicans are winning it. Democrats have years of soul searching and retooling to do before they’ll even sniff winning their first statewide race since the early 90s. Anointing someone known almost exclusively for filibustering on behalf of elective late-term abortion post 5 months of pregnancy may have set the Democrats’ plan back at least one full election cycle, if not more.”
Read the whole thing.
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, Bill White, Elections, Greg Abbott, Texas, Wendy Davis, WILLisms
Posted in Elections, Texas | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, March 5th, 2014
A very brief look at last night’s primary results:
John Cornyn won, but couldn’t break 60% against a field of underfunded challengers.
The Democratic Senate runoff is going to be between the big-spender David Alameel and the LaRouche candidate Kesha Rogers.
As expected, both Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis won their gubernatorial primaries. But Abbott garnered 91% and over 1.2 million votes, the most of any candidate for any office. By contrast, Davis got 432,000 votes and won 79% of the vote against underfunded challenger Ray Madrigal, indicating a distinct enthusiasm gap despite Davis’ nationwide MSM cheer-leading corps.
Dan Patrick’s early lead over incumbent David Dewhurst in the Lt. Governor’s race held up. Patrick pulled in 550,742 votes for 41.5% of the vote, while Dewhurst got 376,164 votes for 28.3%. Maybe Dewhurst can carpet-bomb the runoff with money, but that’s an awful big gap to make up. We knew that Dewhurst losing to Cruz in 2012 hurt him; now we know how much.
Ken Paxton takes the lead into the runoff with 566,080 votes over Dan Branch’s 426,561.
Glenn Hegar is hovering right at the threshold of beating Harvey Hildebran outright in the Comptroller race.
George P. Bush garnered 934,501 to win the Land Commissioner primary…or over twice as many votes as Wendy Davis.
Sid Miller (410,273) and Tommy Merritt (248,568) are heading for a runoff for Agricultural Commissioner, leaving Joe Straus ally Eric Opiela out in the cold.
All the Ted Cruz-endorsed Supreme Court incumbents won their races.
Super-tight runoff in U.S. House District 23 between Francisco “Quico” Canseco and Will Hurd to face Democratic incumbent Pete Gallego. Canseco held the seat before Gallego, and whoever wins the runoff has a good chance of taking the swing seat back.
Katrina Pierson was unable to unseat Pete Sessions in U.S. House District 32, garnering 36.4% of the vote. As I feared, Sarah Palin’s endorsement came to late to truly capitalize on it in fundraising.
Matt McCall did even better, where he and another challenger kept Lamar Smith at 60.4% in U.S. House District 21. Though they won their primaries, Sessions and Smith might be vulnerable to further challenges in 2016.
As far as I can tell, every U.S. or statewide incumbent Republican either won or is leading their race. Except David Dewhurst.
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, Dan Branch, Dan Patrick, David Alameel, David Dewhurst, Elections, Eric Opiela, Francisco "Quico" Canseco, George P. Bush, Glenn Hegar, Greg Abbott, John Cornyn, Katrina Pierson, Ken Paxton, Kesha Rogers, Matt McCall, Pete Sessions, Republicans, Sid Miller, Ted Cruz, Texas, Tommy Merritt, Wendy Davis
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Monday, March 3rd, 2014
With primary voting upon us tomorrow, it looks like I’ve run out of campaign to cover. Here then is a quick, scatter-shot batch of snippets on various races:
Wendy Davis is super popular…just not in Texas. “27 percent of the money Davis raised in the last filing quarter came from donors outside Texas, compared to just 2 percent of Abbott’s total.”
In the Comptroller race, Glenn Hegar seems to have have racked up the lion’s share of conservative endorsements, and is also winning the money race over Harvey Hilderbran (who has mostly racked up the endorsements of business groups, newspapers, and “shill” groups like Steve Holtz’s “Conservative Republicans of Texas“). 2010 Gubernatorial hopeful Debra Medina is also polling strongly despite having raised relatively little money, I didn’t think she was ready for primetime in 2010, but Comptroller is probably a great spot for a Libertarian. I’d vote Hegar over Medina, but I’d vote both over Hilderbran.
The Agricultural Commissioner’s race is easier to narrow down with who not to vote for, namely J. Allen Carnes, who voted Democratic until 2012, and “donated to Texas Democrats Pete Gallego, Henry Cuellar, and Ciro Rodriguez.” Also who to vote against: Eric Opiela, AKA Joe Straus’ lawyer. By contrast, Sid Miller seems to have racked up an impressive list of endorsements.
In the Land Commissioner race, George P. Bush does have a primary opponent in David Watts, who has actually racked up a fair number of endorsements. Plus Paul Burka isn’t impressed with George P. Bush’s campaign (and Burka may even be right for a change).
Lt. Governor race roundup. if the Chronicle paywall won’t let you in, search for the first sentence on Google news. Here’s some damning-with-faint-praise for Todd Staples: “‘Staples becomes a plausible alternative if you don’t have Dewhurst in the race,’ Henson said. ‘My impression is that he is well-liked in the Capitol special-interest community.'” Ouch!
Here’s your biannual reminder that Texas mainstream media outlets almost always endorse the most liberal candidate.
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, David Watts, Debra Medina, Eric Opiela, George P. Bush, Glenn Hegar, Greg Abbott, Harvey Hilderbran, J. Allen Carnes, Joe Straus, Media Watch, MSM, Paul Burka, Republicans, Sid Miller, Steve Holtz, Texas, Todd Staples, Wendy Davis
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Wednesday, February 26th, 2014
It’s a mere six days before the March 4 primary, and I haven’t covered the various statewide races nearly as well as I would have liked. (Maybe Ukraine will refrain from blowing up this week.) So I’ll try to catch up with some statewide race update, including a summary of the current state of play for those just tuning in, as well as some race tidbits (some of which are, alas, fairly musty). First up: The Governor’s Race.
Gregg Abbott is a better, more focused candidate with a better organization in a deep red state. Abbott has both experience running successful, high-profile statewide races, has a solid record of achievement as Attorney General, and unquestioned conservative credentials. I’ve seen Abbott work a room in person, and he’s very good at it. He has all Rick Perry’s strengths and none of his weaknesses. He came into the campaign with a hfty warchest and continues to raise money at a record pace.
Wendy Davis, by contrast, is a photogenic white woman whose main claim to fame is her filibuster in support of unlimited late-term abortions. Davis had a fairly indifferent record as a State Senator, and called herself a Republican back in the 1990s. She has been fundraising at a more-than-respectable clip, and pulling in impressive amounts of out-of-state liberal special interest money. She probably has more enthusiasm at the liberal grassroots level than any statewide top-of-the-ticket candidate since Ann Richards. Her campaign has frequently seemed very poorly organized, and indifferent or hostile to potentially friendly reporters. Her fibs about her life story and unconvincing flip-flops on guns and late-term abortions may have hurt here with swing voters, but don’t appear to have dampened the enthusiasm of her liberal base. She’s aided in her campaign by Battleground Texas, a well-funded attempt to “turn Texas blue” by registering more Democrats.
Obviously, Abbott is going to win the Republican nomination, and, despite her many stumbles, Davis is going to win the Democratic nomination. Abbott is going to cream her in November.
Now some race tidbits:
Abbott holds an 11 point leader over Davis in the latest polls.
Gregg Abbott raised $2.5 million in the latest filing period, and has $30 million cash on hand.
In case you missed it before: Abbott outraised Davis 3-1 in January. Davis’ claimed advantage comes from counting Battleground Texas totals as her own.
Speaking of BattleGround Texas, did they break the law?
Abbott and the Texas Republican Party aren’t taking Battleground Texas efforts lying down. “Abbott…has 50 paid staff members doing grass-roots outreach.”
Davis’ actual campaign finance report
Greg Abbott on ObamaCare.
Ted Nugent apologizes.
For all her walkback on late-term abortions, it’s still the pro-abortion crowd who is giving Wendy Davis the big bucks.
“Wendy Davis is no Ann Richards.” To be fair, Ann Richards wasn’t really Ann Richards either, but she was a whole lot better at faking it…
Davis gets a New York Times Magazine profile…
…which the hard left complains is insufficiently sensitive to radical feminist language demands.
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, Battleground Texas, Greg Abbott, Republican Party of Texas, Texas, video, Wendy Davis
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas, video | No Comments »