Over at NRO’s Campaign Spot, Jim Geraghty lists a whopping 117 House races in play. His list includes all of the races I highlighted as as competitive, as well as two from my list of longshots:
- Joseph Donnelly vs. Jackie Walorski for Indiana’s second congressional district.
- Barney Frank vs. ex-Marine Sean Bielat for Massachusetts’ Fourth Congressional District.
Republicans aren’t leading all those races, and there’s no guarantee they’ll actually win the ones they are leading, and even beyond that there’s no guarantee that if they do win, it will be outside the margin of the usual Democratic fraud.
Says Geraghty:
My current assessment is in line with the conventional wisdom: Roughly 100 seats are in play under the broader definition, and it’s hard to see Republicans winning fewer than 40 of them. The ceiling depends on how angry the country is on November 2, but it is pretty darn high . . . 60? 70? 80?
The possible peak of the wave keeps getting larger…