Posts Tagged ‘Elections’

Roundup For Today’s Texas Runoff

Tuesday, May 28th, 2024

If you live in Texas, today is primary runoff election day. In particular, Dade Phelan and a whole lot of his coalition cronies are fighting to stay in power, and voters can slam the door shut on them today.

Brad Johnson at The Texan has an overview of what’s a stake in today’s runoff.

House District (HD) 21 is the largest chip on the table and the warring sides in this raging intra-GOP trench war have gone all-in.

Including third-party groups, more than $12 million is likely to be spent on both sides of the clash between Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont) and David Covey. The challenger beat the incumbent by 3 points in the primary, but this round is winner-take-all.

Not only is a legislative seat on the line, but so is a speakership, one that comes with lots of influence for the area — a fact that’s been fashioned into an argument by Phelan and team.

The last time a speaker lost re-election was in 1972, though it was a substantially different circumstance.

Legislative hopes for next session are on the line — both in terms of what Phelan himself hopes to accomplish in 2025 and for everything that may end up on the chopping block should he and other incumbents survive, opening the door for a kind of revenge tour against Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.

Patrick’s legacy as one of the most influential and powerful politicians in Texas history is already cemented. But he never likes losing a fight; he wouldn’t be where he is if he did. To that end, Patrick wants to ensure the speaker with whom he’s feuded so prolifically and publicly meets his political end on Tuesday…and Phelan hopes to deny Patrick what he wants yet again.

The lieutenant governor has likened the speaker to everything under the sun except the first over the wall at the Alamo. And the speaker has returned fire in-kind. Fences can always be mended, but this fence is more like the Great Wall of China or the Trump border wall that was never finished.

Should the speaker escape his political doom tonight, it’s more likely than not that slings and arrows will again be lobbed as the Legislature is eventually brought to a grinding halt.

Whether they’ll admit it publicly or not, more members than one might believe think Phelan will retain the speakership in that scenario; pour one out for all the “the King is dead”-type of columns written right after the primary.

And if Phelan loses tonight, that’ll mark the true beginning of the 2025 House speaker race. Jockeying for position behind the scenes has been going on since November, but at that point it would significantly ramp up.

The bomb-throwing contingent on the right of the House GOP caucus is bigger than it’s ever been and will have a legitimate run at pushing for various reforms. And after their faction won the Texas GOP chairmanship, the political relevance that waxed last year and during the primary waxed further.

Instead of “bomb thrower” I’d call them “the Republican wing of the Republican Party,” the one that actually wants to enact conservative policies and the one that doesn’t want to rule at the head of a Democrat-dominated coalition. Unlike Phelan.

Given widespread Republican dissatisfaction with Phelan’s faction, who is throwing money to keep Phelan’s toadies in office? Gambling interests.

Special interest casino gambling is spending big to protect incumbents who have carried their water in the Texas legislature.

According to campaign finance reports filed on Monday, Sands PAC donated nearly $650,000 in a mixture of races, including returning incumbents, failed candidates, and those taking part in primary runoff elections,

Already defeated incumbent Kronda Thimesch (R-Lewisville) received $54,000 from the PAC following her loss to attorney Mitch Little in the March primary. Drew Darby (R-San Angelo), who notched an unimpressive primary victory in March, received $25,000.

Embattled House Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont) received $100,000 in direct contributions from the Sands PAC and $512,163 in-kind spending, which the Speaker and other candidates obtained from a newly formed and well-funded vehicle for Sands and its owner.

Earlier this week, Texas Scorecard reported on the political spending of the “Texas Defense” PAC, a newly established committee funded by Miriam Adelson, the owner of Sands Casino.

Along with Phelan, the Texas Defense PAC supports embattled incumbents Frederick Frazier, Justin Holland, John Kuempel, and John McQueeney, a candidate for the open seat vacated by State Rep. Craig Goldman.

Frederick Frazier’s felony-plagued candidacy received $496,000 from the Defense PAC and $50,000 from Sands, as did Holland.

Seguin-based State Rep. John Kuempel also received $50,000 from Sands. Kuempel’s father, the late John Kuempel, was a proponent of expanded gambling and authored measures during his time in the legislature to that end.

Alan Schoolcraft, a former lawmaker, is challenging Kuempel and has the backing of Gov. Greg Abbott after Kuempel voted to strip school choice from an omnibus education bill in 2023.

All incumbent lawmakers forced into runoffs (Frazier, Holland, Kuempel) voted to expand gambling in Texas during the 2023 legislative session, despite the issue not being a priority for Texas voters. The only incumbent who missed out on funding and voted likewise was Gary VanDeaver (R-New Boston).

Democrats Jarvis Johnson and Nathan Johnson (no relation) received $50,000 and $9,000 in funding from Sands, respectively.

Today will also decided the runoff between gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera and incumbent Tony Gonzales for the 23rd Congressional District.

Cuellar Aides Flip

Tuesday, May 14th, 2024

Remember the bribery and money-laundering indictment of Texas Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar (TX-28)? Two of his aides just flipped.

Two former consultants to U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar have agreed to plead guilty to assisting the lawmaker in laundering hundreds of thousands of dollars from a Mexican bank.

Colin Strother, the South Texas Democrat’s former campaign manager, and Florencio “Lencho” Rendon struck separate deals with the U.S. Department of Justice in March, where they agreed to cooperate with the investigation.

The first of the two to come clean was Strother, who signed his agreement on March 6. Nine days later, Rendon entered into his deal with federal prosecutors.

In Rendon’s agreement, the operation’s origins are stated to have begun in 2015, when Rendon met with Banco Azteca executives at Cuellar’s behest to discuss supposed regulatory issues facing the bank.

After the meetings, Rendon allegedly signed a contract paying him upwards of $15,000 monthly to provide consulting for an unnamed “U.S.-based media and television company” connected to Banco Azteca.

Strother’s deal details that Cuellar then allegedly commissioned Rendon to meet Strother, where Rendon offered Strother $11,000 a month to participate in a clandestine project that Strother eventually determined to be “a sham.”

Rendon’s agreement notes that he kept $4,000 for his consulting firm, while he expected Strother to keep $1,000 for himself and forward the remaining $10,000 to Imelda Cuellar’s company.

Rendon paid Strother $261,000 total from March 2016 to June 2019. Over $236,000 of those funds were allegedly funneled to Cuellar’s wife, Imelda Cuellar.

Prosecutors believe the transactions were part of an effort by Cuellar to hide the money from required U.S. financial disclosures.

Rendon and Strother have agreed to testify before a grand jury or any other judicial proceeding as part of their plea deals. Both still face up to 20 years in prison and onerous fines for conspiracy to commit money laundering.

Having your bagman flip on you is never a good sign for beating a rap, so I’d say it’s already highly likely Cueller will be going from the House to the big house, especially since a third aide has flipped.

A third person with ties to U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar’s bribery case has pleaded guilty, according to a recently unsealed plea agreement, after the South Texas Democrat was accused of accepting nearly $600,000 in bribes from Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank.

Irada Akhoundova pleaded guilty to unlawfully acting as an agent of the Azerbaijani government and a state-run oil company, a violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, on May 1, according to the plea deal first reported by the San Antonio Express-News. Akhoundova admitted to facilitating a $60,000 payment to Imelda Cuellar, the congressman’s wife, who was also indicted last month.

For nearly 20 years, Akhoundova has served as the president of the Houston-Baku Sister City Association, a nonprofit that builds ties between the Texas city and Azerbaijan’s capital, according to her LinkedIn profile. The plea agreement describes Akhoundova as an active member of the Texas Azerbaijani-American community. The court filing states that she served as the director of a U.S. affiliate of a Baku-based company, from approximately 2014 to 2017.

Unlike U.S. Senators, Governors cannot appoint interim U.S. House members. Article I, Section 2, Clause 4 of the Constitution states: “When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.” According to the Texas election code, U.S. House special elections operate under the same rules as Texas legislature special elections, namely “a special election shall be held on the first uniform election date occurring on or after the 36th day after the date the election is ordered. (b) If the election is to be held as an emergency election, it shall be held on a Tuesday or Saturday occurring on or after the 36th day and on or before the 64th day after the date the election is ordered.” If Cuellar resigns in May, June, or July, presumably Governor Abbott will call a special election for the seat.

In August, the issue starts running up on general election deadlines. By Texas law, a party official has 74 days before an election to remove a candidate’s name from the ballot, but the Texas Secretary of State says August 19 is the date, which looks like 78 days, which matches this doc on filling vacancies. If Cuellar resigns or pleads guilty before that date, Democrats can presumably pick another candidate to run in the November election. Beyond that date, presumably whichever of Republicans Jay Furman and Lazaro Garza Jr. (who are competing in the runoff to challenge Cuellar) is nominated will win the seat, since Cuellar will be ineligible to serve despite his name being on the ballot.

Final thought: Cuellar is the last even nominally pro-life Democrat in the U.S. House. The conspiracy-minded might think this is the only reason the Biden DOJ was allowed to indict him…

Given The Chance, Austin Voters Escape Austin

Tuesday, May 7th, 2024

Not living in Austin, I missed the news that several de-annexation elections were on the May 4th ballot.

In 2017, Texas lawmakers passed a bill stopping cities in large counties from being able to annex areas if residents didn’t want to be part of the city. But between the time the law passed and when it went into effect, many areas were annexed.

Last year, lawmakers passed House Bill 3053 to allow neighborhoods that were annexed during that time period to disannex, if voters approve.

Lost Creek in West Austin is the largest area proposing to deannex itself from the city. It’s been a part of Austin since 2015, but many residents have been petitioning to separate them from the city, claiming they’ve been paying city taxes for services that have been lacking. Neighbors in the area have had to pay for off-duty sheriffs to patrol the area.

The results? Anywhere voters voted (for a couple of propositions, literally no one showed up to vote), they voted to get the hell out of Austin.

Three areas voted to disannex from Austin after saying they’re paying for services they don’t receive.

Katieva Kizer lives on Blue Goose Road in northeast Austin, which is one of the six neighborhoods that voted to leave Austin’s city limits on Saturday.

“The whole time we’ve been with them, it’s been a run around as to who should provide anything,” Kizer said.

Texas passed HB 3053 which stopped cities in large counties from being able to annex areas if residents didn’t want to be part of the city. But between March 2015 and December 2017, many neighborhoods were annexed.

“My grandfather fought the annexation of this little area the whole time here until he died in 2015,” Kizer said. “He was the kind of guy that would call the county … Call the city and tell them, ‘You need to come do things.’”

Kizer said they never got any benefits from the city in the seven years they were annexed and that their roads and water infrastructure deteriorated.

“I did call and contact the city for services, and they’re like, ‘No, we’re not up to date in your area to provide those services,'” Kizer said. “Huge potholes everywhere … They didn’t actually come and fix our road until they started doing new construction in the rest of the area. It was only to benefit the newcomers to the area, not anybody that’s already been here and paying taxes.”

Lost Creek, Blue Goose Road and River Place Outparcels voted to leave Austin on Saturday. Kizer was one of the three people to vote and said there are nine or 10 houses in their 28-acre neighborhood.

“They can’t tell you that every vote doesn’t count because three of us voted, and it could have just been one of us,” Kizer said. “If it was none of us, then it would have stayed the same. So every vote does matter. It does count … Because just the three of us made the decision for all of us.”

Disannexing means they will no longer receive certain city services, like fire or police protection, no street maintenance, public health sanitation, and more.

“There weren’t a lot of things to look forward to or that they were giving us,” Kizer said. “So, the major benefit is that I get to go back to being county taxed.”

Lost Creek, the largest of the neighborhoods at 738 acres, had more than 1,500 people vote with 91% for disannexing. River Place Outparcels, a 212-acre area, only had one person vote for disannexing, and no one vote against it.

The City of Austin seems to have no problem finding money for the homeless industrial complex or funding toy trains, but falls down on basic necessities like fixing potholes.

As foretold by the Historical Records

Until Austin gets its act together (or the charter is revoked), maybe the legislature should let any neighborhood in Austin vote to disannex itself from the People’s Republic…

(Hat tip: Dwight.)

Supreme Court Shuts Down Another Democrat Election Fraud Vector

Wednesday, April 24th, 2024

In many states, Democrats can’t win unless they cheat, and that’s why they want easily-abused universal mail-in voting to become to the norm. To that end, Democrats sued Texas (yet again) over mail-in voting limitations, and once again their lawsuit against election security laws was denied by the Supreme Court.

An attempt to revive the Texas Democratic Party’s 2020 challenge to the state’s mail-in ballot restrictions was denied this week by the U.S. Supreme Court.

The court denied a petition for a writ of certiorari from Joseph Cascino, Marie Sansing, and Brenda Li Garcia — residents of Texas who do not qualify for mail-in voting under current law. They filed their petition back in December.

In Texas anyone may vote early in person, but only those aged 65 or older, disabled, or out of their county of residence during the election may vote by mail.

The trio of petitioners argued that their right to vote is impinged by those limitations and that the 26th Amendment bars any such division of classification between voters.

The case was originally made in 2020 by the Texas Democratic Party, which secured a temporary victory in the trial court. The U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals reversed that decision and the Supreme Court denied an appeal of that reversal.

Represented by the Office of the Attorney General (OAG), Secretary of State Jane Nelson countered, “Some States endorse no-excuse absentee voting; others require in-person voting with narrow exceptions.”

“This diversity of approaches reflects a healthy federalism and accords with the uncontroversial notion that ‘government must play an active role in structuring elections.’”

The court did not issue any opinion or reasoning with the dismissal.

“Many states irresponsibly and unconstitutionally changed their voting policies prior to the 2020 election,” Attorney General Ken Paxton said of the dismissal. “Fortunately, we did things differently in Texas: we fought hard to uphold Texas law and defend the integrity of elections in this State.”

Texas did change its voting policy during the 2020 election — Gov. Greg Abbott used disaster powers to unilaterally extend early voting by a week — and while no ruling declared it unconstitutional, the extension was done without input from the Legislature, which was the very contention of Paxton’s 2020 election suit against other states who similarly changed voting laws through executive order.

Two state senators, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, then-Texas GOP Chair Allen West, and a bevy of then-current or former state representatives sued over the action. The Texas Supreme Court denied their motion for an emergency stay as Paxton was named as one of the attorneys for Texas Secretary of State Ruth Hughs.

Another argument that was denied back in 2020 was that the threat of contracting COVID-19 constituted a disability under the state Election Code; it was also ultimately rejected.

The practical onus for the original lawsuit was Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins’ unsolicited mailing of absentee ballot applications to all voters. That action was halted by the Texas Supreme Court in October 2020.

In Harris County, I’m sure that Lina Hidalgo is very disappointed that vote tabulation sites won’t be able to pull out boxes of miraculously overlooked mail-in ballots to alter tallies at 3 AM on November 5th…

Texas Election Roundup For April 23, 2024

Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024

If you thought “No runoffs in my area, so I don’t have to vote in May,” after the primary election, think again!

  • Come May 4, Texans in large counties have tax appraisal district director elections.

    Many Texans will have their first opportunity to elect representatives to the governing boards of their local appraisal districts, making the agencies that assess property values for tax purposes more accountable to citizens.

    A new property tax relief law, passed last year and approved in November by voters statewide, included a provision for voters in counties with a population of 75,000 or more to elect three new members to their county appraisal district board of directors.

    The three elected board members will serve alongside the five appointed directors and the county tax assessor-collector, who will become an ex-officio board member.

    Directors elected in May will take office on July 1 and serve a term that expires on December 31, 2026.

    Going forward, elected appraisal district directors will be on the ballot in November of even-numbered years and serve staggered four-year terms.

    The five directors appointed by local taxing units (counties, cities, school districts) that participate in the appraisal district will also transition to staggered four-year terms, starting in 2025.

    Property tax consultant Chandler Crouch, who has championed appraisal district reforms for years, told Texas Scorecard, “I believe the legislation that implemented these changes is a direct result of the trouble I’ve experienced and would not have happened if it weren’t for concerned Texans demanding change.”

    Crouch was targeted by his local Tarrant County appraisal district officials after helping thousands of residents protest their property taxes and calling attention to problems within the system.

    In the wake of several scandals, longtime Tarrant Appraisal District Chief Appraiser Jeff Law resigned last September.

    “Over the past few years I’ve seen plenty of corruption at the appraisal district. I believe the problems I encountered would have been dealt with much quicker if we had someone at the appraisal district that was directly accountable to the taxpayers,” said Crouch.

    In addition to adding elected appraisal district directors in the state’s 50 largest counties, the new law puts the directors in charge of appointing members to the appraisal review board.

    The appraisal review board (ARB) is the group of citizens that hears taxpayer protests and resolves disputes between property owners and appraisal districts. Currently, ARB members are appointed by the county’s local administrative judge.

    At least two members of the majority voting for ARB members must be elected directors.

    Any possibility for voters to check tax increases is a good thing.

  • As far as the Williamson Central Appraisal District Board of Directors election, information on these down-ballot races are quite sparse. The candidates are:
    1. Place 1: Hope Hisle-Piper and Jim Buell
    2. Place 2: Mike Sanders and Jon Lux
    3. Place 3: Collin Klein and Mason Moses

    According to this Facebook thread, Buell, Sanders and Klein are running a taxpayer-friendly slate, while Hisle-Piper, Lux and Moses are already appointed members of the board, using a loophole to run for the elected seats. Sanders asserts “If they win, each of them will then hold two positions on the Appraisal Board.” That hardly seems kosher. On that basis, I’m tentatively recommending a vote for Buell, Sanders and Klein, but if you have any countervailing information, please share it in the comments below.

    Note: Early voting for this election has already started and runs through April 30.

  • Travis County also has appraisal district elections, and Don Zimmerman, Matt Mackowiak and Bill May are the obvious choices for conservatives there (though less a vote for May than one against lifetime Democrat Dick Lavine).
  • Both Ted Cruz and Democratic opponent Colin Allred raised around $10 million for their senate race, but Allred has a much higher burn rate.

    The U.S. Senate race in Texas is shaping up to be an expensive bout between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Congressman Colin Allred (D-TX-32), with both candidates posting high fundraising totals and the challenger burning through most of his haul.

    Both candidates announced close to $10 million raised in the April quarterly report last week. The two touted the fact that their contributions came from every — or in Allred’s case, almost every — county in Texas. The pair’s average donations were both around $35.

    Cruz reported $15.1 million cash-on-hand at the end of this period — which includes monies raised into the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Texas GOP itemized for his race — to Allred’s $10.5 million left on hand.

    Cruz’s number is $2.7 million more than he raised in the first two quarters of 2018 combined. Allred’s haul exceeded 2018 candidate Beto O’Rourke’s first-quarter number by close to $3 million.

    Though he posted a record first quarter haul in 2018, the biggest money for Beto’s bid really started flowing in during the spring and summer following the primary; he raised nearly $80 million in that race, and narrowly lost to Cruz, who raised $45 million that cycle.

    Both Cruz and Allred have raised around half of their money in 2024 from within Texas, with big money figures and organizations on both sides of this fight salivating for another high-profile clash. More than 12 percent of Allred’s haul came from California to Cruz’s 32 percent from Virginia, the vast majority of which is due to the GOP’s small-dollar donor interface, WinRed, being headquartered there.

    The Democrats’ version, ActBlue, is headquartered in Massachusetts.

    One of the most interesting factors in these reports is Allred’s burn rate — the amount of money spent relative to what he raised. Allred has plenty of money left over, but he spent 96 percent of his haul, more than two-thirds of which was spent on media advertising.

    I would be lying if I said I was up to date on the latest campaign finance trends, but it’s universally acknowledged that a burn rate that high this far out from the general election is “bad”…

    …and that media buys this far out from the general are fools gold. Maybe Allred thinks he needs to get to the same level of name recognition as O’Rourke did in 2018, but that’s simply not possible. He’d need just as many fawning media profiles as O’Rourke got, and the national media is too busy ramping up the Orange Man Bad machine to do that. This time in 2018, I’d already seen a zillion Beto signs and bumper stickers, and I doubt I’ve even seen five for Allred. And, after all that money and name-recognition, Beto still lost…

    The latest poll on the race from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation — which pegged Allred down 5 points to Cruz — showed the challenger with a +24 net favorability rating to Cruz’s +3. However, Allred’s undecided total was 40 points, showing that there are loads of movable voters who could go either way on him; Cruz’s undecided number was 1 percent.

    Polls this early mean very little. But cash on hand is rarely overrated…

  • Can Brandon Herrera take down Tony Gonzales in the runoff?

    In his nascent bid for Congress, Brandon Herrera is putting two things to the test: embattled Congressman Tony Gonzales (R-TX-23), and the ability of next-generation politicians to overcome statements — and jokes — made on social media.

    Known popularly as “The AK Guy,” Herrera is a YouTuber boasting a large following whose schtick is firing cool guns and teaching his viewers about their characteristics and history. His X bio reads, “Congressional Candidate (R TX-23) YouTuber, Second Amendment Absolutist, VERY Politically Incorrect.”

    The field of Republican primary challengers pushed Gonzales to a runoff, with the incumbent falling 4.6 points away from winning the primary outright; Herrera received 24 percent of the vote, finishing a comfortable second place and securing a runoff against the incumbent.

    Now he’s the last man standing between Gonzales and a third term in Congress.

    But standing between Herrera and the upset is the very reason he has such a large following: his irreverent, and very entertaining, streaming persona. Herrera’s YouTube channel has 3.3 million subscribers and the pinned video is him testing out the “magic bullet theory” related to the JFK assassination — namely that the bullet attributed to the president’s death looks as if it didn’t actually hit anything, let alone a human being.

    But it was a different video that caught the attention of his opponent — and a national media outlet.

    “Rep. Gonzales’ right-wing GOP challenger posted videos featuring Nazi imagery, songs, jokes,” reads a headline from the publication Jewish Insider. The video in question is an informational on the MP-40 submachine gun, developed in Germany during the Nazi Third Reich.

    Discussing the gun, Herrera refers to it as “the original ghetto blaster” and then shows a sardonic black and white montage firing the weapon as the German military marching song “Erika” plays.

    “If the MG-42 was Hitler’s buzzsaw, the MP-40 was Hitler’s street sweeper,” he adds.

    At the end of the video, Herrera says of the sarcastic tone and jokes, “The best way to not repeat history is to learn about history. And the best way that I know to get you guys to learn about history, is make really f—– up jokes about it.”

    In acknowledging the “edgy” humor, Herrera unknowingly handed ammunition to his future political opponents — the effectiveness of which remains to be seen and a potential dagger that Herrera brushed aside.

    “Whereas before you have little statements that can be taken out of context or jokes that were made that would tank careers, it’s no longer that way,” Herrera told The Texan in an interview, suggesting the current political climate has passed the point of caring about such remarks.

    “One of the big catalysts for that change was the way that Trump ran his campaign. I think people related to him and people aren’t really afraid to see that side of elected representatives anymore.”

    About the potential shift, Herrera added, “[Candidates] don’t have to be as squeaky clean, and really, fake as they have been in years past. And I think we’re getting closer to an era of real people.”

    “Being representatives now, which I think is going to be a net positive because people are realizing it doesn’t matter what jokes have been made in the past, and it doesn’t matter if your congressman was caught swearing or something like that. People care about how you vote and I think that’s the core of it. And that should be what people vote on.”

    Is a post-Trump disdain for political correctness going to prevent it from being used on other candidates for edgy humor? Maybe. But a bigger problem for Herrera is that he came out of the primary 21 points behind Gonzales. That’s a large gap to make up, especially since Gonzales is out-raising Herrera. Absent dramatic developments, the vote and money gaps may be too big for Herrera to make up between now and May 29.

  • Speaking of gun policies for candidates, Ammo.com has a roundup of ratings.
  • LinkSwarm For April 12, 2024

    Friday, April 12th, 2024

    It’s been a week of petty frustrations, with simple things like paying for online transactions made impossible by websites that send out the wrong information despite the right information being on file. Speaking of frustration, Americans continue to be battered by high inflation, blacks continue to abandon Biden, and it turns out that the Pope might, just might, be Catholic after all.

  • Core inflation is up yet again.

    A hotter-than-expected consumer price index report rattled Wall Street Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

    Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a measure of underlying prices.

    Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.

    Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said if you take the readings of the last three months and annualize them, you’re looking at a supercore inflation rate of more than 8%, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

    (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • Speaking of inflation, welcome to $7 Tree.
  • Black voters continue to abandon Biden in droves.

    According to a Wall Street Journal Swing State Poll, blacks, especially black males are abandoning Biden in huge numbers.

    While most Black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president. There isn’t comparable WSJ swing-state polling from 2020, but Trump received votes from 12% of Black men nationwide that year, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate.

    That’s an 18 percentage point swing, minimum, for black males, if the national results and the swing state voting is similar.

    By confirmed, I mean those who said they intended to vote for Trump.

    The gap is even larger if we factor in undecided voters. Biden is down by a massive 30 percentage points vs 2020.

  • Biden may not be on the ballot for the Ohio general election because the Democratic National Convention falls too late to certify him.
  • Pope turns out to be Catholic, comes out against child genital mutilation.
  • “Nebraska state Sen. Mike McDonnell announces that he’s switching from Democrat to Republican.”
  • Country musician Jason Aldean refuses to let Biden campaign use hit song “Fly Over States.”
  • Good: A teacher helping her son with homework. Bad: A teacher helping her son force female students into sex trafficking. “Klein Cain High School cosmetology teacher Kedria McMath Grigsby is accused of helping her son, Roger Magee, force the troubled teens into prostitution.”
  • Man driving eighteen-wheeler interntionally crashes into DPS office in Brenham, killing one.
  • Hard evidence that temperature data is being manipulated to show global warming.

    Investigative science writer Paul Homewood last year discovered considerable tampering in 2022 with the recent CET record. He initially found that in version one, the summer of 1995 had been 0.1°C warmer than 2018. In version 2, the two years swapped places with 1995 cooled by 0.07°C and 2018 warmed by 0.13°C. Alerted to these changes, Homewood then analysed the full record from version 1 to 2, and the graph below shows what he found.

    As can be seen, the adjustments up to 1970 are small with ups and downs offsetting each other. Homewood then found that the years from 1970 to 2003 had been cooled markedly, followed by significant rises to 2022. Homewood concludes that “unfortunately it is part of a much wider tampering with temperature globally – and the tampering is always one way, cooling the past and heating the present”. Given that we now know that the Met Office has been using class 4 statistics for two thirds of its database since 2006, the recent higher adjustments would seem to call for clarifying explanations from the state-funded Met Office.

    (Hat tip: Boreptach.)

  • Ukrainian drone attack hits radar site 650km inside Russia.
  • Speaking of drones, China is supplying tens of thousands of drones…to Ukraine. I did not see that coming, but China certainly can use the money.
  • Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick lays out his legislative priorities for 2025.

    Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has announced his interim charges for the Senate, a set of 57 issues he is calling on Senate Committees to investigate and research ahead of the legislative session next year.

    The list of charges runs the gamut of issues conservatives have called on the legislature to address, including property tax relief, protecting Texas land from hostile foreign ownership, and strengthening laws preventing electioneering by school districts and other political subdivisions.

    Some of the biggest reform proposals, however, have been reserved for higher education.

    Patrick has asked the Higher Education Subcommittee to study and make recommendations regarding the role of ‘faculty senates’, antisemitism on college campuses, as well as to review the implementation of a new state law banning DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) in state universities that went into effect earlier this year.

    “The Senate’s work to study the list of charges will begin in the coming weeks and months. Following completion of hearings, committees will submit reports with their specific findings and policy recommendations before December 1, 2024,” said Patrick.

  • When you think Houston Democratic Congresswoman Shelia Jackson Lee has already said the stupidest thing she possibly can, she goes out and proves you wrong.
  • I know you’re shocked, shocked to find out that gun-grabbing opportunist David Hogg’s political group Leaders We Deserve spent way more on administration than backing candidates.
  • Thanks to New York City’s idiotic rent control laws, not only would a hotel guest refuse to pay rent or leave, but a court actually ruled that he was the owner of the hotel.
  • First class stamps are going up to 73 cents. Thanks, Joe Biden.
  • If the commies running Vietnam accuse someone of a crime, I don’t automatically trust them, but Truong My Lan may actually be guilty.

    Behind the stately yellow portico of the colonial-era courthouse in Ho Chi Minh City, a 67-year-old Vietnamese property developer was sentenced to death on Thursday for looting one of the country’s largest banks over a period of 11 years.

    It’s a rare verdict – she is one of very few women in Vietnam to be sentenced to death for a white collar crime.

    The decision is a reflection of the dizzying scale of the fraud. Truong My Lan was convicted of taking out $44bn (£35bn) in loans from the Saigon Commercial Bank. The verdict requires her to return $27bn, a sum prosecutors said may never be recovered. Some believe the death penalty is the court’s way of trying to encourage her to return some of the missing billions.

    The habitually secretive communist authorities were uncharacteristically forthright about this case, going into minute detail for the media. They said 2,700 people were summoned to testify, while 10 state prosecutors and around 200 lawyers were involved.

    The evidence was in 104 boxes weighing a total of six tonnes. Eighty-five others were tried with Truong My Lan, who denied the charges and can appeal.

    All of the defendants were found guilty. Four received life in jail. The rest were given prison terms ranging from 20 years to three years suspended. Truong My Lan’s husband and niece received jail terms of nine and 17 years respectively.

    Snip.

    By 2011, Truong My Lan was a well-known business figure in Ho Chi Minh City, and she was allowed to arrange the merger of three smaller, cash-strapped banks into a larger entity: Saigon Commercial Bank.

    Vietnamese law prohibits any individual from holding more than 5% of the shares in any bank. But prosecutors say that through hundreds of shell companies and people acting as her proxies, Truong My Lan actually owned more than 90% of Saigon Commercial.

    They accused her of using that power to appoint her own people as managers, and then ordering them to approve hundreds of loans to the network of shell companies she controlled.

    The amounts taken out are staggering. Her loans made up 93% of all the bank’s lending.

    According to prosecutors, over a period of three years from February 2019, she ordered her driver to withdraw 108 trillion Vietnamese dong, more than $4bn (£2.3bn) in cash from the bank, and store it in her basement.

    That much cash, even if all of it was in Vietnam’s largest denomination banknotes, would weigh two tonnes.

    Yeah, none of that seems kosher…

  • Memorial Hermann Hospital: No liver transplant for you!
  • How CD sales and rock music both collapsed in the early 21st century.
  • A very interesting O.J. Simpson story:

    (Hat tip: Commenter Kirk.)

  • Strange news from Russia: Chechnya has banned music that’s slower than 80 beats per minute, or faster than 116 beats per minute. Both the Russian and Chechen national anthems are slower than that…
  • “John Tinniswood of Southport, UK is now the world’s oldest man.
  • How a programmer managed to rip off casinos for years. It helped that he worked for the Nevada Gaming Control Board…
  • “New ‘Biden Diet‘ Sweeps Nation: Pay The Same Amount Of Money But Eat 50% Less Food.”
  • Vatican Reluctantly Sides With God On Gender Theory.
  • Adorable prison break.
  • Hit the tip jar if you’re so inclined.





    Conflict Of Interest: You’re Soaking In It

    Thursday, April 4th, 2024

    Remember when the court system at least pretended to be objective? Remember a few months ago when liberals claimed that Clarence Thomas’ wife knowing conservative activists meant he had to recuse himself from everything?

    Here in the real here and now, huge conflict of interest problems with the lawfare cases being waged against President Trump are being deliberately ignored in the headlong rush to convict Trump of something, anything, for any reason before November.

    “Lara Merchan, the wife of the judge presiding over former President Donald Trump’s “hush money” case in Manhattan, once worked for New York Attorney General Letitia James, who brought the massive $350 million civil fraud case against the former president, with the revelation reviving claims of bias and calls for the judge’s recusal.”

    Records reviewed by The Epoch Times show that Ms. Merchan worked for 21 years as a Special Assistant to the AG in New York, including three years under Ms. James. She changed jobs over two years ago.

    Ms. James is a Democrat who fixated on President Trump as she campaigned for New York attorney general, calling him a “con man” and vowing to shine a “bright light into every dark corner of his real estate dealings.”

    She began investigating the former president soon after taking office, eventually suing him for allegedly misleading banks and others about the value of his assets.

    Ms. James eventually won the case on Feb. 16, with New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ordering President Trump and Trump Organization executives to pay $350 million in damages, and barring the former president from doing business in the state for three years.

    Judge Juan Merchan is presiding over a separate criminal trial involving President Trump in New York, in which the former president is accused of falsifying business records in order to conceal a $130,000 “hush money” payoff to an adult performer to stay quiet about their alleged affair.

    But wait! Lara is not the only member of the Merchan family with a conflict of interest in the case.

    The judge’s daughter, Loren Merchan, is president of Authentic Campaigns, a Chicago-based progressive political consulting firm whose top clients include Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who was the lead prosecutor in Trump’s first impeachment trial, and the Senate Majority PAC, a major party fundraiser.

    Authentic Campaigns, and thus the judge’s daughter, is actively making money from this sham attack against President Trump, rendering Judge Merchan conflicted out,” Trump spokesman Steven Cheung told The Post, adding that evidence of bias is even clearer now than it was in August when Merchan rejected Trump’s first recusal motion.

    “The judge should do the right thing and immediately recuse himself in order to show the American people that the Democrats have not destroyed our justice system completely … him continuing to be involved in this Crooked Joe Biden-directed Witch Hunt is a complete violation of applicable rules, regulations and ethics.”

    Evidently the family that TDSes together, stays together.

    It’s conflicts of interest all the way down…

    Is Trump Picking Up Black Voters?

    Thursday, March 21st, 2024

    All polls indicate that the answer is yes. The question is how many.

    CBS News correspondent Nikole Killion interview Azad Ahmad and his girlfriend Alexandra, both of whom voted for Obama in 2012, but both of whom are voting for Trump this year.

  • Alexandra: “My views on certain things have changed.”
  • Alexandra: “Being in a pattern of doing the same thing that I’ve been doing because it’s kind of like second nature. When you go in in a poll, you hit Democrat. Something has to happen. I mean, it’s just so expensive to survive, and we’re planning on having kids. I don’t want to live in a stressful environment, trying to rub two pennies together to try to make it.”
  • Azad: “Post-Obama, I decided that the [Democratic] party just wasn’t suitable to the goals that I had.”
  • Another black voter: “I think president Trump was a bad people’s person, but a great leader. He put our economy in a booming state. He provided a permanent funding for all HBCU.”
  • Despite salting her interviewees with Democrats reciting talking points, a lot of real frustration with Biden and the Democratic Party seeps through.

    I notice, however, that everyone she interviewed was college educated. It woud be interesting to poll blacks worker blue collar jobs. I suspect the support for Trump would be even higher…

    (Hat tip: Zerohedge.)

    Rufo On Rogan: Democrats Destroying Democracy To Save It

    Saturday, March 16th, 2024

    I haven’t reported much on the farce of Democrats tearing through the thicket of law to get at their great devil Donald Trump, mainly because it is such a farce, but here’s Christopher Rufo on Joe Rogan discussing how dangerous and anti-democratic their blood vengeance crusade is.

  • Joe Rogan: “How disturbed are you by what seems to be this acceptance that people have for prosecuting political opponents?”
  • JR: “Because to me, it’s, regardless of what you think about Donald Trump as a human being and the polarizing figure that he is, setting the precedent of trying your political opponents to somehow or another, either put them in jail, or make them seem like complete total criminals in a way that would, for the casual, for the person who’s not reading deep into the headlines.”
  • JR: “The casual Democrat that sees this Trump real estate thing that just happened, where he got fined $365 million. I’ve seen people argue ‘fraud is fraud and this is that and he’s a fraud,’ and then I saw Kevin O’Leary from Shark Tank explain this is what every real estate developer does.”
  • JR: “They say ‘My building’s worth $400 million,’ and then someone comes along from the bank, and they say ‘No, it’s worth $300 million. We’ll give you a loan on $300 million’ or whatever.”
  • Christoper Rufo: “It’s negotiation.”
  • JR: “People overvalue their property all the time. [Someone] has a house and it’s worth $700,000, they decide to list it as $900,000.”
  • Plus the lunacy of a leftist judge saying Mar-a-Lago is worth only $18 million, when a more realistic valuation is well over $1 billion.
  • CR: “We have a democratic system that favors Trump, in the sense that he won in 2016, he’s winning the primary right now for republicans in 2024.”
  • CR: “But you have a bureaucracy that is dead set against him. And the rhetoric amounts to a very odd claim. They essentially say: ‘We want to keep him off the ballot, we want to put him in prison, we want to bankrupt him so he can’t become the president, even if the people support him. We want to deprive the people of making the decision.'”
  • CR: “So you want to take it out of the realm of politics and into the realm of administrative justice or the criminal justice system, and adjudicate it in that way on bogus pretexts.”
  • CR: “Who actually rules in this country? Is it the American people who get to decide by their vote who represents them in the government? Or is it the permanent bureaucracy that has accumulated so much power?”
  • CR: “I’m of the mind that the people should decide, not the bureaucracy. And this is a contest where Democrats are saying essentially we have to destroy democracy in order to save democracy.”
  • Evidently there’s no undemocratic Rubicon Democrats won’t cross, no bridge they won’t burn, to destroy democracy in the name of saving it from Orange Man Bad.

    More Texas 2024 Primary Results Tidbits

    Thursday, March 7th, 2024

    Now that the dust has settled a bit, here are some more election tidbits from Tuesday’s primary, most gleaned from The Texan’s tracking page.

  • President Trump got more than twice as many primary votes as Joe Biden.
  • Ted Cruz got more than twice as many votes (1,979,327) as all the Democratic Texas Senate candidates combined (964,250). And even more votes than Trump (1,808,823).
  • Trump and Cruz both won all 254 Texas counties. Joe Biden lost sparsely populated Loving County to Frank Lozada one vote to zero, and King County (small and overwhelmingly Republican) either hasn’t reported Democratic votes or didn’t hold a Democratic primary. (Both Trump and Cruz got over 70 votes in Loving County.)
  • Republican incumbent Christi Craddick won her Railroad Commissioner’s race without a runoff at 50.4%.
  • If you compare the topline race primary results of 2022 (Texas Gubernatorial race) to the Presidential primary results of 2024, Republican votes are up just over 365,000 (2,323,754 in 2024 vs. 1,954,172 for 2022), but Democrats are down over 96,000 votes (979,179 for 2024 vs. 1,075,601 for 2022).
  • The Ken Paxton slate for the Court of Criminal Appeals (David Schenck, Gina Parker, and Lee Finley) all won over their respective incumbents fairly handily.
  • The previously reported Gonzalez/Herrera runoff was the only Texas U.S. House race where the Republican incumbent was pulled into a runoff; all the others won with ease.
  • 2022 saw Republican Monica De La Cruz beat Democrat Michelle Vallejo in U.S. House District 15, the only swing district in Texas after redistricting, by nine points. November is going to see a rematch between the two, as both won their primaries. Given the ongoing border crisis (TX15 runs down to Rio Grande Valley) and both Texas Republican and Trump inroads into Hispanic voters, I would not expect Vallejo to improve on her previous showing.
  • Harris County DA Kim Ogg lost her Democratic Party primary to the more radical, Soros-backed Sean Teare. “Although Ogg had financial support from billionaire donor and criminal justice reform activist George Soros during her first campaign in 2016, Soros did not assist Ogg in her 2020 re-election bid and threw his support to Teare this election cycle. The Soros-funded Texas Justice and Public Safety PAC spent over $1.5 million in the final weeks of the campaign to help Teare unseat Ogg.” Democrats also seethed that Ogg let investigations of corruption among Judge Lina Hidalgo’s staffers go forward. How dare she not treat Democrats as above the law? Teare will face Republican nominee Dan Simons, a former assistant district attorney and defense attorney, in November. Bonus: Ogg had trouble voting because her lesbian girlfriend already cast her ballot for her. As commentor Leland noted, does Harris County not follow Texas voter ID laws?
  • Travis County residents are evidently delighted with more rapes and murders, as they just voted to keep Jose Garza DA.
  • School choice was a big winner Tuesday.

    The 2024 primary election was a major success for school choice advocates in Texas. Several opponents of education reform lost outright, others went to runoffs, and still more were electorally weakened.

    Corey DeAngelis, a school choice advocate and head of the American Federation for Children Victory Fund, released a statement touting six wins and four forced runoffs in the 13 races where his PAC was engaged.

    Throughout multiple called special sessions in 2023, the Republican-led House alternatively delayed and killed Gov. Greg Abbott’s efforts to create school choice in Texas. Ultimately, these efforts culminated with 21 Republicans voting for an amendment by John Raney (R-College Station) to strip school choice from an omnibus education measure.

    Accounting for retirements and with the runoffs still to be decided, only a handful of incumbent Republicans who sided with the teachers’ unions to kill school choice during the legislative session will be returning to Austin in 2025.

    As covered yesterday, anti-school choice incumbents defeated include Reggie Smith, Travis Clardy, Glenn Rogers, Ernest Bailes and Steve Allison, while those driven into run-offs include Justin Holland, John Kuempel, Gary VanDeaver and DeWayne Burns

  • Some State Board of Education news. “Pat Hardy, a former teacher and a veteran representing District 11, which covers parts of Fort Worth, lost her seat to challenger Brandon Hall, a youth pastor.” Also: “Another incumbent, Tom Maynard of District 10, which includes Williamson and Bell counties, will go into a May 28 runoff against Round Rock school board member Mary Bone, who describes herself as a conservative champion for Texas kids.” If Bone wins, she’ll probably make a good State Board of Education member, but Round Rock ISD desperately needs more conservatives on the board.
  • Williamson County primary results. I didn’t see any surprises there.
  • Things that make you go “Hmmmm”: “Potential Speaker Candidate Hired by Bank with Ties to Bonnen and Phelan.”

    A lawmaker rumored to be eyeing the speakership in the Texas House is employed by a bank that has connections to current House Speaker Dade Phelan and disgraced former Speaker Dennis Bonnen.

    State Rep. Cody Harris, a Republican from Palestine, was first elected to the House in 2018. At the time, he was a real estate broker for Liberty Land & Ranch LLC.

    In August of 2021, however, Harris added a new item to his resumé—Vice President of Business Development for Third Coast Bank.

    The career change is notable given the bank’s ties to the current and former speaker.

    In late 2019, Third Coast Bank acquired Heritage Bank, where Bonnen had served as President, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer. He currently sits on Third Coast’s Board of Directors.

    Phelan’s brother Lan Phelan was a director of Third Coast from 2013 until at least 2016, according to filings with the secretary of state. A 2021 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed that the bank’s Beaumont location was leased from Phelan’s family investment firm.

    Additionally, the most recent personal financial statement from Dade Phelan shows that he owns shares in Third Coast.