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LinkSwarm for June 18, 2014

Wednesday, June 18th, 2014

There’s so much news going on in the world that it’s hard to sit down and focus on one story to get a single blog post out of it when there’s another huge story coming down the pike. Iraq, Ukraine, the VA Scandal, the dog eating Lois Lerner’s emails (“Barack Obama has brought us Jimmy Carter’s economy and Richard Nixon’s excuses”); too damn much going on to focus on one thing. So here’s a LinkSwarm instead:

  • Barack Obama is not interested in war, but war is interested in Obama.
  • Obama golfs while the world burns. “Oh Lord, I was born a golfing man!/I get in a round whenever I can…”
  • Obama Administration admits that ObamaCare will cost people more for health care, even with the subsidies.
  • Russia cuts off natural gas supplies to Ukraine.
  • Russian tanks appear in eastern Ukraine.
  • Russia’s top anti-corruption cop decides to take up flying.
  • One reason the IRS went after the Tea Party: Chuck Schumer asked them to.
  • “The Obama administration has reached levels of hitherto unknown incompetence.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • A majority of Americans do not believe that Obama is trustworthy. You don’t say.
  • Another day, another 48 people dead at the hands of Jihadists in Kenya. There are days when 48 people killed at a hotel would top the news…
  • The Obama Administration also released 12 Jihadists in Afghanistan.
  • Won’t someone please think about poor, impoverished Hillary Clinton?
  • The Obama Administration’s intentionally lax border control enforcement is letting letting Mexican gang members waltz into the country.
  • “Thousands of young, poor would-be immigrants—90,000 this year alone—have swarmed across the border, the logical fruition of the entire cynical approach of the Obama administration toward illegal immigration.”
  • Bill Gates wants to propagandize you into accepting illegal alien amnesty. Actually, what Gates and his high tech baron compatriots really want is more H1-B visas, but since that doesn’t help the Democratic Party as much as illegal alien amnesty, it gets rolled into the giant “comprehensive immigration reform” ball.
  • Should Obama have erased the IRS emails Nixon have erased the tapes?
  • Turning point in the Brat campaign: crashing a staged event to prove Cantor was lying about amnesty.
  • “Prostitutes more than double their earnings by moonlighting as currency traders” in Venezuela.
  • Argentina runs out of rope.
  • European cab drivers protest Uber by halting traffic. Result? Uber sees 850% increase in signups.
  • I’m going to boil this down to the essentials: Never open an account with a Georgia bank.
  • But maybe they need to seize your money to pay for all that food stamp fraud.
  • Does anyone really think West Virginia Democratic Senate candidate Natalie Tennant is any more “pro-coal” or “pro-gun” than Bart Stupak was “pro-life”?
  • Another year, another lefty writer caught plagiarizing the work of others. And not just any lefty writer, but a Pulitzer Prize winner to boot…
  • Chelsea Clinton got paid $600,000 by MSNBC. That worked out to $26,724 for each minute she was on the air. In other news, your betters in the overclass really don’t care what you think of the financial compensation one member of the class gives to another…
  • Millions in “urban redevelopment” money in Democratic-controlled Philadelphia ends up in certain people’s pockets with almost nothing to show for it. Try to contain your shock. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • South Carolina university professors: “How dare you make us teach the Constitution?”
  • Violence and subway strike in advance of Brazil’s World Cup.
  • New guidelines for ignoring due process in accusations of college campus sexual assault = Lawsuitapalooza!
  • Erick Erickson calls out Ted Cruz for not endorsing more conservatives.
  • Dwight does some gun geeking for you Smith & Wesson fans.
  • Dear anyone who’s ever self-published their own book: you’re a fascist Ayn Rand supporter, using your evil individualism to bypass the holy gatekeepers of traditional publishing.
  • And if you think that’s the stupidest left-wing essay you’ll read today, think again.
  • There was enough voter fraud in a Weslaco City Commissioner Race for the judge to order a new election. “Some of the disallowed ballots were cast by voters claiming Rivera’s childhood home as their address.” Note: Weslaco is down in the valley right next to Donna, Texas, which had its own voting scandal.
  • Doggies! (Patriotic doggies, no less.) (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • “This harlot-sized ensemble will make you the envy of your trampish posse on your fraudulent wedding day.”

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    Posted in Border Control, Democrats, Foreign Policy, Jihad, Media Watch, Military, Obama Scandals, ObamaCare, Texas, Waste and Fraud | 1 Comment »

    Democrats Can’t Help Wanting to Ban Guns. It’s What They Do.

    Tuesday, December 18th, 2012

    Like a foolish dog returning to eat its own sick, liberals can’t stay away from expressing their long pent-up desire to disarm law-abiding Americans. Their central governing principle is to give more money and power to the federal government (or the UN, when they can get away with it), and independent gun owners stand in their way. The Sandy Hook shooting victims weren’t even in the ground before Democratic lawmakers were calling on Obama to “exploit” (their words) the tragedy to push for more gun control.

    Liberals seem to regard guns like Sauron’s One Ring: as an evil object of magical power that automatically warps and corrupts the user. Frequently, they also seem to see people disagreeing with them as a sign of mental illness. (Check Twitter for how many call 2nd Amendment activists “sick” or “insane.”) I suspect that makes it harder for them to recognize real mental illness. And when they say they want a “dialog” over guns, what they really mean is “Shut up and hand over your guns and I’ll temporarily stop calling you deranged, bloodthirsty killers.”

    When the plan to deter gun use by the criminal and insane starts out “Step 1: Disarm the Sane and Law-Abiding,” I think I see a flaw in their brilliant scheme. It’s as if there were a rash of food poisonings from unlicensed food carts, and the liberal solution was to ban an all food carts.

    Two years ago I said that when push comes to shove, there’s no such thing as a pro-gun Democrat, and this week West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is the prime example, “A” rating from the NRA notwithstanding. Expect any pro-gun Democrats to either undergo a mysterious conversion to the gun-grabbing cause, or get pushed out of the party, just like nominally “pro-life Democrats” either caved (Bart Stupak and his bloc) or were pushed out (pretty much every national election over the last 20 years).

    Other Sandy Hook shooting fallout:

  • David Kopel notes that “Today, Americans are safer from violent crime, including gun homicide, than they have been at any time since the mid-1960s.” (Kopel is author of The Samurai, the Mountie, and the Cowboy, which I recommend for anyone serious about looking at both sides of the debate over gun control.)
  • Remember that the problem of random mass murder is not a new one. “Mass murder was just as common during the 1920s and 30s as it has been since the mid-1960s.”
  • It’s hard to tell from the media reports, but the .223 Bushmaster reportedly used by shooter Adam Lanza does not appear to have any of the cosmetic features covered by the Clinton-era “assault weapons” ban (i.e., any two of a folding stock, pistol grip, bayonet mount, barrel shroud or flash suppressor). Therefore it’s not an “assault weapon.” (The liberal definition of an “assault weapon” is “any gun that looks scary.”)
  • And the result of the Clinton “assault weapon” ban? As per Clayton E. Cramer, “he policy has been tried and found wanting.”
  • Every single recent mass killing save one has taken place in a “gun free” zone.
  • John Lott, author of the essential More Guns, Less Crime, says that we should arm teachers and ban “gun free zones.”
  • Notice how the repeated failure of gun control is always used as the justification for more gun control? Which is pretty much liberal policy on every issue (welfare spending, regulation, etc.) in a nutshell.
  • The record of gun control in reducing crime in other countries is also generally one of failure as well.
  • Here in Austin, the owner of Thai Noodle House (probably the worst Thai restaurant in town) declared that “I don’t care if a bunch of white kids got killed.” Strangely enough this did not win him many friends, and the restaurant is currently closed.
  • For still another view of the problem, read “I Am Adam Lanza’s Mother,” probably the most passed-around article in the blogsphere and Twitter this week.

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    Posted in Crime, Democrats, Guns | 2 Comments »

    LiveBlogging the 2010 Election

    Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

    Live-blogging the election, most recent comments on top.

    12:12 AM: Prediction for tomorr- er, today: Democrats complaining non-stop about how voters are still too stupid to appreciate how awesome they are.

    12:07 PM: A few got away, but this was a very successful night for Republicans. If you had predicted the magnitude of Republican victory any time in 2009, pundits would have laughed at you. Remember, in October of 2008, Daily Kos said ” At this pace, we’re headed toward a 65-70-seat Democratic majority in the Senate by the end of 2010.” The magnitude of the Tea Party turnaround in Republican fortunes is one of the most astonishing political feats of our lifetimes.

    12:00 AM: Some happy thoughts to leave you with:

    • Republican Steve Pearce beats incumbent Democrat Harry Teague in NM 2, which RCP had as a leans Dem seat.
    • Republican Scott Tipton beat incumbent Democrat John Salazar in CO 3
    • Republican Cory Gardner beat incumbent Democrat Betsy Markey in CO 4
    • Just about every office in Wisconsin that could reasonably have a chance to flip Republican did. How do you like your shiny new red state, WisCon?

    11:57 PM: At Midnight all the agents…have to stop blogging and go to bed. I’ll have some more analysis scattered over the next few days.

    10:54 PM: Fox news calls CA for Boxer. No surprise.

    11:48 PM: Murray has a small lead in Washington, but there are a lot of votes still outstanding.

    11:44 PM: Pennsylvania Senate race called for Toomey. Don’t let Harry Reid’s narrow escape keep you from realizing what a huge improvement Toomey is over Arlen Specter. This is a big plus for Pennsylvanians, Republicans, and Americans, and even Democrats (who won’t have Specter as their problem any more come January).

    11:40 PM: Legal pot defeated in California. I would have supported this were I living in California, as I do not think that regulating it is a legitimate concern of the federal government, and the War on Drugs has been an astoundingly expensive failure. But if legal pot can’t win in California, then where can it win?

    11:39 PM: NV called for Reid. Dang.

    11:38 PM: IL Senate race called for Kirk.

    11:37 PM: Blog went down for a while, but Blue Host brought it back up more quickly than I expected.

    11:03 PM: NBC: “The Tea Party has arrived in Washington, DC. The House did everything the Obama White House asked them to, and they paid the price.”

    10:59 PM: Republicans are over-performing expectations of a week ago, but under-performing those of a day or two ago (including mine). It’s shaping up to be a bit worse for Democrats than 1994, which is bad enough (for them), but short of the (deep, scary voice) DEMOGEDDDON some were predicting.

    10:55 PM: Senate Race quick updates:

    • Kirk slightly ahead in IL. (“KHAAAANNNNN!”)
    • Toomey still holding the lead in PA, with not many districts outstanding
    • Rossi/Murray tied in WA; it’s flipped back and forth
    • Reid slightly ahead in NV
    • Boxer up slightly in CA, but voting is early

    10:49 PM: Speaking of Alvin Greene, at least he got his own comic book out of the deal.

    10:46 PM: I’m still amazed the Democrats couldn’t find anyone to run against John Thune in South Dakota. It makes South Carolina Democrat’s choice of Alvin Greene seem slightly less pathetic. At least he showed up.

    10:40 PM: TX23 called for Doggett over Campbell, but 52% is a lot closer that most people expected.

    10:35 PM: Back from walking the dog.

    10:05 PM: Stop! HAMMERTIME!

    10:00 PM: Did I mention that Republican Dan Benisheck took Bart Stupak’s seat? I think I know exactly what circle Dante would place Bart Stupak in…

    9:58 PM: Toomey slips into the lead over Sleestak Sestak. Setak had held the lead virtually all night. Over in the opposition camp, the Daily Kossacks are despondent, saying there are only heavily Republican counties left.

    9:52 PM: “Captain’s Log…I’m tired!” I’ve been staring at glowing rectangles for too long. I’m going to take a break to walk my dog in a few minutes.

    9:49 PM: ABC refusing to call Florida or Ohio Governor’s races for the leading Republicans. I think they’re whistling pass the graveyard.

    9:43 PM: This was announced earlier, but Barney Frank survives, alas. I’m sure he’s already dreaming of new ways to inject taxpayer money into the housing market.

    9:41 PM: Republican Nikki Haley takes South Carolina Governor’s race.

    9:40 PM: Wisconsin Senate seat called for Ron Johnson over Russ Feingold. GOP pickup.

    9:38 PM: Sadly, Cao is going down in LA 2. Still, it’s an overwhelmingly Democrat seat that only went Republican in 2008 due to corruption on the part of William “cold 90 grand” Jefferson.

    9:36 PM: Dana Loesch is on ABC. She looks pretty hot. (Note: This was the point in the evening when my internal censor decided to pack up and go on vacation.)

    9:31: Ha! Barletta over Kanjorski. Also, “Red Barchetta” over “The Camera Eye.”

    9:29 PM: Hingham, Mass, suffers from excess of Kitty litter.

    9:25 PM: Fox 7 interviewing Larry Gonzalez. He looks excited, articulate, and sweaty. “Oh my gosh.” :-)

    9:23 PM: Man, that CBS theme music of repeating flute riffs is annoying. Like a pastiche of Philip Glass written by someone who hates Philip Glass.

    9:22 PM: Katie Coric: “Some think Haley Barbour is a future GOP Presidential candidate.” Yeah, some people on a very poor grade of crack…

    9:21 PM: PA Senate still too close to call. IL Senate still too close to call. WI too close to call. CO too close to call. NV too close to call. Still, I have the distinct feeling Republicans won’t take the Senate.

    9:18 PM: ABC has finally decided to grace us with election news. Ed Rendell is spinning madly that Democrats aren’t losing bad as some people expected.

    9:17 PM: Though CBS has a well-known liberal bias, their House race tracker is fairly well laid-out.

    9:14 PM: Fox 7 has Texas congressmen Chet Edwards, Solomon Ortiz and Ciro Rodriguez all losing. As well as 20 Democrat state House incumbents going down.

    9:11 PM: Hmmm. CBS has Republican Thomas Reed beating Matthew Zeller in NY29, despite Zeller’s total currently being higher than Reed.

    9:07 PM: Flores winning big over Chet Edwards for TX-17.

    9:02 PM: More local Texas updates from KEYE: Doggett back up over Campbell, but only by 5,000 votes. Larry Gonzalez maintaining 59-39% lead over Moldanado.

    9:00: Democrat Bill White concedes in Texas.

    8:55 PM: Republican Dennis Ross over Dem Lori Edwards in FL 12. (GOP hold.)

    8:53 PM: Palin: “Delaware is a deep blue state. Exit polls show Castle would have lost on Delaware the same way O’Donnell did. The Tea Party didn’t cost the GOP that race.”

    8:51: Fox predicts GOP picks up PA Governorship.

    8:51: Palin now slamming the “lamestream” media.

    8:50: Palin just admitted she might run for President.

    8:49: Fox: “Is Marco Rubio a possible Vice Presidential candidate?” Palin: “He’s a possible Presidential candidate.”

    8:47 PM: Palin says the Tea Party movement is libertarian in character. “They’re not going to Washington to raise taxes.”

    8:45 PM: Sarah Palin being interviewed on Fox right now. Like Bush, I think it’s her accent that’s the source of the American left’s instant, irrational rage against her.

    8:45 PM: Republican Rigell over Nye in VA02.

    8:40 PM: RCP has Republicans picking up North Dakota Senate seat (as expected).

    8:37: PA, NV senate races still too close to call.

    8:33 PM: CBS: Republican Steve Southerland over incumbent Dem Allen Boyd in FL 02.

    8:30 PM: Houston Chronicle calls Governor’s race for Perry. No surprise.

    8:27 PM: Fox: Vitter holds on in LA.

    8:23 PM: KVUE: Larry Gonzales over Moldanado in early voting for the Texas House District 52 race!

    8:23PM: KVUE: Texas news starts coming in: Perry kicking White 59% to 39%. Whoa! Campbell up over Doggett??? (only 5% in, though)

    8:16 PM: NBC saying Ohio’s Governor’s race is closer than [insert cornpone Dan Rather saying here]

    8:13 PM: Fox predicting: 239 Republicans in the House, 196 Democrats.

    8:12 PM: Fox News predicts Republican takeover of the House. Booyah! Take that Nancy Pelosi! But pretty much everyone to the right of Daily Kos predicted that.

    8:09 PM: Republican Charles Fleischmann holds on to Zach Wamp’s seat. I just like typing “Zach Wamp.” ZACH WAMP!

    8:08 PM: Tom Brokaw just called the American electorate a “wild bull.”

    8:05: Foxnews.com has Republican jeff Duncan picking up Gresham Barrett’s SC 03 seat.

    8:01 PM: Nice of you to join us, Fox News.

    8:00 PM: Republican Lou Barletta edging Democrat Paul Kanjorski in PA-11, but the lead is small and only a small number of districts have reported.

    7:55 PM: Republican Young over Democrat Hill in IN9, according to RCP Donnelly/Walorski still too close to call.

    7:50 PM: Sadly, they’re calling it for Democrat Manchin in the West Virginia Senate race. There’s one prediction I missed.

    7:47 PM: Arkansas Woman Forges Judge’s Signature to Buy Mustang. Not election-related, but man, that’s some turbo-charged stupid…

    7:41 PM: As a reporter, getting caught conspiring against a Republican candidate gets you: A.) A Pulitzer, B.) A job with MSNBC, or C.) A pink slip. (Of course, they might still get the MSNBC jobs…)

    7:39 PM: “Election Alert: Fox News Projects Republican John Boozman Defeats Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.” Almost as shocking as a Mike Tyson victory over Woody Allen.

    7:36 PM: Republican Griffith over Dem Boucher in VA 09.

    7:31 PM: As part of their non-election, ever-so-important “Trapped in an Elevator” coverage, PBS is showing footage of the World Trade Center collapse. I’m sure Democrats are calling up PBS execs. “You’re not helping!”

    7:27 PM: They’re also calling IN 08 for Republican Buschon.

    7:25: CBS has Sandra Adams beating Suzanne Kosmas 60% to 40% in FL 24. Kosmas was an ObamaCare flipper, though not one of the Stupak group.

    7:15 PM: Pause for pizza.

    7:13: Drudge: REPUBLICANS WIN SENATE SEATS: AL, FL, GA, IN, OH, KY, MO, NH, SC…
    DEMS WIN: CT, DE, MD…
    TOO CLOSE TO CALL: PA, IL…
    No real surprises there…

    7:09: ABC: Bucshon over Van Haaften 55% to 39% for IN 06, but Donnelly up over Walorski 49% to 46% with 56% reporting.

    7:06 PM: “Fox News Projects GOP Marco Rubio Wins Fla.”
    Hey, Charlie Crist:

    7:02 PM: Well, thank God for PBS and their focus on public-minded–CLICK. “Trapped in an Elevator.” Your tax dollars at work.

    7:00 PM: Glee, Fox? Dancing with the Stars, ABC? On election night? Thanks for NOTHING!

    6:58 PM: Jackie Walorski up over Stupak-bloc flipper Joe Donnelly 53% to 42% with 19% of the vote in.

    6:51 PM: Foxnew.com has Frank Guinta up over incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in NH1 by 12,585 to 10,348. If anyone had Shea-Porter on their endangered list, I must have missed it.

    6:49 PM: Alan Grayson (FL-08) is down 63 percent to 29. Can you hear my crazy now?

    6:47 PM: Drudge predicting a 50 seat GOP pickup in the House.

    6:44: PBS has Robert Hurt up over Dem Golden Boy Tom Perriello by 55%, in Virginia, despite national Dems pouring millions into the race. But the returns may not be representative of the district as a whole.

    6:42 PM: Nancy Pelosi is still saying the Democrats will keep the House. Also thinks Dallas Cowboys will win the Superbowl.

    6:39 PM: Coats beat Stupak-bloc flipper Brad Ellsworth, who left his seat to run for the Senate. How’s that ObamaCare working out for you?

    6:35: DeMint called in SC, but he’s only at 55% right now, which has to be a disappointment considering the quality of his opponent.

    6:30 PM: PBS calls race for Republican Portman in Ohio. KLRU is the only broadcast station in Austin showing news right now.

    6:29 PM: Minnesota Democrats using the mentally handicapped to commit vote fraud. Must not make joke. Must not make joke. Must not make joke…

    6:23 PM: Moving the TV into the office. Old 36″ tube. Weighs approx. 3 metric tons.

    6:13 PM: Drudge exit polls via Instapundit:

    Tea for Three: Coates, Paul, DeMint Win Senate Seats…

    EXIT POLLS:

    IL 49-43 Kirk [R]… NV TIED…

    Arkansas: Boozman (R) over Lincoln (D)
    California: Boxer [D] over Fiorina [R]
    Florida: Rubio [R] over Crist [I], Meek [D]
    Ohio: Portman (R) over Fisher (D)
    North Dakota: Hoeven (R) over Potter (D)
    Wisconsin: Johnson (R) over Feingold (D)

    6:11 PM: Whoa, that was quick. ABC, Fox, and NBC are already calling the Senate races for Rand Paul in Kentucky and Dan Coats in Indiana.

    6:07 PM: The Fark election thread, for one of the few venues on the Internet where both left and right gather to drink heavily and troll each other.

    6:00 PM: Greetings Instapundit readers! Damn he’s fast. Within minutes of me dropping him an email the link was up. It’s like that Warner Brothers cartoon when the wolf writes off for an anti-smoking kit, and when he goes out to mail the letter the postman drive out, snatches the letter from his hand, hands him the kit and drives off…

    5:56 PM: The Washington Examiner on races to watch.

    High turnout in West Virginia.

    The Democratic wailing and rending of garments has already begun.

    Kathryn Jean Lopez of NRO predicts a flip of 80 House seats for the GOP (among other NRO writer predictions at that link).

    Iowahawk brings the election funny.

    12:50 PM: Gallup is reporting a 19 point “enthusiasm gap” among likely voters, the biggest ever on record.

    12:10 PM: Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard weighs in with a prediction (based on his models and Gallup’s final numbers) of Republican House gains of about 75 seats.

    Jim Geraghty makes my prediction of a 67-seat House pickup look pessimistic by predicting a Republican net pickup of 70 House seats. And he’s been following individual races a lot more closely than I…

    Attention the Internets: I will be liveblogging the 2010 election starting around 7 PM CDT and running until who knows when.

    Expect heavy snark with gusts of full-blown schadenfreude reaching 75 miles per hour.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Media Watch, Republicans | 6 Comments »

    BattleSwarm Blog’s Election Prediction for 2010: GOP Gains 67 House Seats, 10 Senate Seats

    Monday, November 1st, 2010

    With the election tomorrow, I thought it was high time to offer up my own election predictions.

    I have carefully and scientifically evaluated each and every House and Senate race, taking into account length of incumbency, previous voting trends for each district and state, fund-raising advantage, the most recent polls, and the fact that every preceding clause in this sentence prior to this one has been a complete and utter lie.

    I have looked at a lot of polls and data but damn, there are only so many hours in the day. My predictions are based on general national mood, gut-feeling, and detailed looks at trends for select races.

    This is going to be worse for the Democrats than 1994. The rise of the Netroots and the overwhelming support among the traditional news media dangerously blinded liberal insiders from how badly out-of-sync with the rest of the country they had become, and their insistence to push onward with ObamaCare despite widespread opposition and a lousy economy turned what was already going to be a bad year for them into a once-in-a-lifetime political slaughter.

    I predict that the Democrats will lose 67 House seats.

    As I admitted above, that’s not a wild-assed guess, but a guestimate based on current polling data and news on individual races. I don’t see Republicans gaining less than 50 seats, and there’s an outside possibility they could get 100. To my mind, it’s much more likely they’ll gain more than 67 than less than 50.

    Among the individual House races, I predict all the Stupak-bloc flippers except Marcy Kaptur (who had the luck to draw Nazi Uniform Guy as her opponent) and Jerry Costello (much as I appreciate GOP candidate Teri Newman popping in to say the race is tied, I just don’t see any traction at all in a 54% Obama district; I’d love to be surprised) will lose, including:

    1. Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana
    2. Indiana’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by Brad Ellsworth)
    3. Michigan’s open 1st congressional seat (formerly held by Bart Stupak)
    4. James Oberstar of Minnesota
    5. Steve Driehaus of Ohio
    6. Charles Wilson of Ohio
    7. Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania
    8. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania
    9. Solomon Ortiz of Texas

    Additionally, I’m predicting that all of the following Democrats representing districts that voted for McCain in 2008 lose their jobs:

    1. Bobby Bright of Alabama
    2. Arkansas’ open 1st congressional district (formerly held by Marion Barry (AKA “the other Marion Barry”))
    3. Arkansas’ open 2nd congressional district (formerly held by Vic Snyder)
    4. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona
    5. Harry Mitchell of Arizona
    6. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona
    7. John Salazar of Colorado
    8. Betsy Markey of Colorado
    9. Allen Boyd of Florida
    10. Suzanne Kosmas of Florida
    11. Jim Marshall of Georgia
    12. Baron Hill of Indiana
    13. Ben Chandler of Kentucky
    14. Louisiana’s open 3rd congressional district (formerly held by Charlie Melancon)
    15. Frank Kratovil of Maryland
    16. Ike Skelton of Missouri
    17. Travis Childers of Mississippi
    18. Gene Taylor of Mississippi
    19. Mike McIntyre of North Carolina
    20. Heath Schuler of North Carolina
    21. Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota
    22. Harry Teague of New Mexico
    23. Michael McMahon of New York
    24. New York’s open 29th congressional district (formerly held by Eric Massa)
    25. John Boccieri of Ohio
    26. Zack Space of Ohio
    27. Christopher Carney of Pennsylvania
    28. Mark Critz of Pennsylvania (serving the remainder of the late John P. Murtha’s term)
    29. John Spratt of South Carolina
    30. Stephanie Sandlin of South Dakota
    31. Lincoln Davis of Tennessee
    32. Tennessee’s open 6th congressional district (formerly held by Bart Gordon)
    33. Tennessee’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by John Tanner)
    34. Chet Edwards of Texas
    35. Tom Perriello of Virginia
    36. Rick Boucher of Virginia
    37. West Virgina’s first district (held by Allan Mollohan, who was defeated in the Democratic primaries)

    That’s 46 seats right there, and I think there’s easily another 21 seats to be had in districts that went narrowly for Obama in 2008 to provide the final margin of victory.

    I predict that the Democrats will lose 10 Senate seats.

    The Senate is a tougher nut to flip this year, and as I set down to gauge Republican chances, I was shocked to find that, despite insider predictions, I actually had them winning ten seats to take control of the Senate. Running down the Senate races that Real Clear Politics shows as tossups I was only getting nine seats, but then I remembered that Blanche Lincoln is losing so badly in Arkansas that they had that down as a safe Republican flip.

    Republicans should take over the following ten Senate seats:

    1. Arkansas
    2. Colorado
    3. Illinois
    4. Indiana
    5. Kentucky
    6. Nevada
    7. Pennsylvania
    8. Washington
    9. West Virginia
    10. Wisconsin

    Much as I’d like to see an upset in California, I don’t see Carly Fiorina getting any traction in an overwhelmingly blue state; I think the out-migration of California’s best and brightest due to the high tax rates, crummy economy, the overwhelmingly powerful public sector unions and a near-bankrupt government (all related phenomena) has, ironically, made Californian even bluer.

    The two races of the ten that will be most difficult for Republicans to pull off are Washington and West Virginia. Washington may be the tightest, simply because the Left Coast is so blue, but Rossi has been steadily gaining on Murray, and actually pulled ahead in the latest PPP poll. And PPP usually has a Democratic bias, so in a wave election, you have to give it to the Republican if polling is within the margin of error.

    In West Virginia, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a victory for Republican John Raese even though Joe Manchin is up four points in the most recent poll, for the following reasons:

    • McCain won West Virginia by 13.1 points in 2008, which was four points above the poll RCP average. Asking Manchin to run 14 points better in 2010 than Obama did in 2008 is a pretty tall order.
    • The state has been trending Republican for years. It went for Clinton over both Bush41 and Dole, but for Bush43 over Gore by 6.3%, and Bush43 over Kerry by 12.9%.
    • West Virginia fits the classic demographic pattern for “Reagan Democrats”: It’s 94.4% white, and is relatively rural and blue collar, and with a household income significantly below the national average. Those are the very voters that are abandoning Democrats this year.
    • Along those same lines, Hillary Clinton beat Obama handily here in 2008, even though Obama had all but clinched the nomination at the time. West Virginia voters fit the classic “Jacksonian” profile, the portions of the Democratic base that has been most alienated by Obama’s policies.
    • Say what you will about the late Senator Robert Byrd, but he was extraordinarily popular in his home state right up to the end. But his name isn’t on the top of the ballot this time around, and without that reminder of their old “born and bred” Democratic allegiance to remind them, 2010 may finally be the year when remaining West Virginia conservative Democrats make the switch to the GOP.
    • The areas that have been most fruitful for Democratic fraud efforts in the past have been urban enclaves with strong Democratic minority machine politics, which are pretty much absent here.
    • Logic dictates that if that this truly is a nationalized “wave” election, it will show up strongly here.

    Honestly, I think the Democrats taking the Washington senate seat is more likely that West Virginia.

    So the Republicans take both House and Senate in an electoral slaughter unprecedented in modern times. So I have foretold, and so it shall be!

    And if you disagree, post your own predictions below.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, ObamaCare, Republicans, Texas | 6 Comments »

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