Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog

While we were looking at the rebel advance on Homs, another rebel force seems to have boiled up to successfully invest Damascus from the south.

Syrian rebel groups reported gains in the country’s south on Saturday, capturing swaths of territory including Daraa, the city known as the birthplace of the country’s 2011 uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, and closing in on the capital, Damascus.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the armed Islamist faction that made stunning gains in the north over the past week, said its forces had begun encircling Damascus after sweeping advances by other rebel groups to the south. The group said that its forces had also carried out an operation Saturday within Homs, a strategic choke point between rebel-controlled areas in the north and the capital.

As its grip on the south crumbled, the Syrian cabinet held an emergency meeting to address the attacks by “armed terrorist gangs” on “a number of cities and regions.” The Syrian military denied that it had withdrawn from areas of the Damascus countryside but said that its forces in the southwestern cities of Daraa and Sweida had “redeployed” to new positions after rebel fighters had “attacked the army’s checkpoints and military points.”

The Southern Operations Room, a newly announced rebel faction in the south, announced its control of the province of Daraa and vowed to “continue until the liberation of Damascus.” Videos posted online and verified by the Agence France-Presse news agency showed a statue of former president Hafez al-Assad being toppled in the city. The Syrian state news agency SANA said that “the sounds heard in some areas of the southern Damascus countryside are of long-range targeting and shooting at terrorist gatherings in Daraa.”

The faction also said Saturday it had taken control of Quneitra, near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in southwestern Syria. The claim could not immediately be independently confirmed. The Southern Operations Room added that its forces were working to “complete the siege of the capital.”

Sweida, a city in southwestern Syria inhabited by members of the Druze religious minority, was under the control of Druze factions on Saturday morning after the army withdrew, said a 29-year-old local activist who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons. The relationship of the southern rebels with HTS remains unclear, but their advance has activated and invigorated local opposition groups.

HTS said Saturday that its forces had captured the city of al-Sanamayn, north of Daraa, and were about 12 miles away from the “southern gate” of the Damascus. The group’s forces have also been closing in on Homs. The Syrian military said forces around Homs and rebel-held Hama have been “carrying out intensive artillery and missile fire on terrorist locations and supply lines, achieving direct hits.”

Here’s a snapshot of the overall military situation, with red for Assad-controlled territory and green for that of the rebels:

And here’s a closer view of the Damascus area:

There’s report after report on Liveumap of Assad forces abandoning various posts throughout the city.

With rebels already in the south of the Damascus and another rebel group coming in from the west, the situation looks pretty dire for Assad.

Here’s a SkyNews video of rebels in the Damascus suburbs toppling a state of Bashar Assad’s father, Hafez Assad:

Notice that many participating in the toppling just seem to be ordinary Syrians, and not members of rebel groups.

It looks like Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah weakened Bashar Assad even more than previously suspected, and Iran’s overreach in supporting so many regional jihadest groups at the same time has left them so dangerously overextended that they will not be able to save their most important regional ally from falling.

This is a fast-moving breaking story, but I’d say there’s a 90+% chance that Assad’s goose is cooked.

Update: Unconfirmed reports that Assad has fled Syria in his private plane and flown to Abu Dhabi. Update 2: Maybe not? “Axios: Israeli security sources report that their intelligence suggests Assad remains in Damascus.”

Update 3: Rebels appear to have taken Homs.

Update 4: Less than a day, and the map has already drastically changed:

Update 5: Israel reportedly hits a Hezbollah column reportedly trying to bugger back to Lebanon.

Update 6: Reuters says that Assad has left Syria.

Update 7: There’s some evidence that Assad’s plane may have been shot down.

Update 8: It appears that Assad has now arrive in Moscow, and that Russia has granted he and his family asylum.