Eric Weinstein sat down with the Triggernometry guys (Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster) to talk about the 2024 election and the Democrat Party’s radical diversion from “Democracy.”
Posts Tagged ‘video’
Marvel Rivals Censors On Behalf Of Communist China
Tuesday, December 31st, 2024Video game YouTuber Asmongold documents some interesting behavior in the new video game Marvel Rivals: It censors your text messages if you try to say anything critical of Communist China.
Marvel Rivals is a “third person hero shooter” that’s just been released featuring Marvel characters. Unusually in a year in which AAA video game titles lost the companies releasing them big money due to gamers rejecting them for being woke, Marvel Rivals has garnered generally good reviews.
Like many games, it has a chat system. But testing other reports on the game, Asmongold verified that it will not let you post such messages as:
It flags all these as “text contains inappropriate content.”
I’m sure it will come as no surprise to you that Marvel Rivals was developed and published by Chinese developer NetEase Games for Marvel Games.
Remember, when you subcontract IP development to China, you’re importing censorship…
China’s Population Only 600 to 800 million?
Saturday, December 28th, 2024We’ve previously covered that China’s demographics are in severe decline and that China’s GDP may be overstated by 60%. Now a researcher says that China’s population could be overstated by 37-50%.
(Before we dig in, two caveats: First, the channel is Lei’s Real Talk, from someone who came over from communist China and was a student in the U.S. during the Tiananmen Square crackdown, but she doesn’t use her full name, which she says is to protect her family back in China. Second, she’s using AI to answer some of her questions. Still, the math-based questions don’t seem conducive to the “AI hallucinations” we see elsewhere, but some caveat lictor seems in order.)
Given the GDP overstatement estimates, this enormous overstatement of China’s population seems plausible. It also makes all those wild claims of “China will soon overtake the US economically” look even more ridiculous.
China’s “one child per couple” policy will be seen by future generations as one of the greatest self-inflicted catastrophes in history.
ASML Exits, China Screwed
Thursday, December 26th, 2024I’ve previously talked about China’s difficulties in catching up to the west in semiconductor manufacturing here, here, and here, among other places. To summarize: Western nations have an advanced, highly interconnected semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem that China doesn’t have the technical expertise to replicate. In particular, China has nothing like ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (AKA a “stepper”) necessary to build the most advanced chips with the smallest feature geometries.
Here’s a piece with ASML’s CEO talking about just how far China is behind.
Though advancements that SMIC and Huawei have made in the semiconductor sector in recent years are pretty impressive, the companies are 10 to 15 years behind industry giants like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, said Christophe Fouquet, chief executive of toolmaker ASML. It’s well known that even with the best-in-class DUV tools, Chinese fab SMIC will be unable to match TSMC’s process technologies cost-effectively. This is because Chinese companies cannot access leading-edge EUV lithography tools.
“By banning the export of EUV, China will lag 10 to 15 years behind the West,” said Christophe Fouquet in an interview with NRC (machine translated). “That really has an effect.”
ASML has never shipped its EUV tools to China due to the Wassenaar Arrangement, despite SMIC’s reported order for one EUV machine. The details remain unclear, but ASML did not deliver the machine to the Chinese foundry due to US sanctions. However, ASML kept shipping advanced DUV lithography tools, such as the Twinscan NXT:2000i, which are capable of producing chips on 5nm and 7nm-class process technologies.
As a result, SMIC has been producing chips for Huawei using its 1st-generation and 2nd-generation 7nm-class process technology for years now. This has certainly helped the Chinese high-tech giants weather U.S. government sanctions.
Having understood that EUV tools are not coming to China, Huawei and its partners have explored extreme ultraviolet lithography themselves with the aim of building their own lithography chipmaking tools and ecosystem, which will take 10 – 15 years at best. For reference, it has taken over 20 years for ASML and its partners from foundational work to complete commercial machines to build the EUV ecosystem.
China thought it had found a way out of the western ban on high end lithography machines. Turns out: Not so much.
When you buy a piece of high-end semiconductor equipment, you’re not just buying the machine, you’re buying the knowledgebase of deep technical expertise of both the on-site technical staff, as well as the process wizards back in Eindhoven, Santa Clara and Tokyo. There are inumerable parameters that need to be just right, and you need to know how to tweak them if the yield goes south. Without that expertise to guide you, the high end machines quickly become worthless.
I can imagine President Trump offering China a grand bargain, in which they stop stealing western technology, stop committing genocide against the Uighers, stop clashing with Philippine ships in the South China Sea, meet its treaty obligations regarding Hong Kong, and let international agencies inspects its high level bioweapon labs in exchange for easing semiconductor sanctions.
I doubt China would take such a deal, as it would be too humiliating for Xi to stand. But I can imagine Trump making it…
Merry Christmas: Stellarscope’s “Silent Night”
Wednesday, December 25th, 2024As is the now annual tradition, enjoy Stellarscope’s version of “Silent Night”:
Merry Christmas!
How Not To Make A Pistol
Saturday, December 21st, 2024Been a while since we did some gun geeking, so here’s Ian McCollum doing a Forgotten Weapons video on all the ways you can screw up while trying to make a new pistol.
There’s many a slip ‘twixt the cup and the lip…
Russia Showing Visible Cracks
Wednesday, December 18th, 2024More than two years into Putin’s three day Special Operation, Russia is starting to show extensive cracks in its facade of normalcy.
Russian lawmakers have proposed introducing food ration cards across the entire country in response to rising prices, claiming the idea has a “healthy foundation”, the Moscow Times wrote on Dec. 15.
Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma’s Committee on Financial Markets, endorsed the idea of reintroducing food vouchers reminiscent of those used in the Soviet Union – the proposal, initially suggested by the Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast governor.
Aksakov believes the initiative should be expanded nationwide. The Russian official stated that food vouchers would help “support socially vulnerable groups,” though he did not specify a potential monthly allowance for these cards.
“As of Dec. 9, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development reported annual inflation reaching 9.2%, the highest level since February 2023. However, alternative metrics indicate significantly higher figures,” the publication noted.
Food ration cards in Kaliningrad Oblast are set to roll out in 2025, targeting pensioners with incomes below the subsistence minimum.
On Dec. 10, it was reported that the Kremlin had significantly increased military spending amid a catastrophic collapse of the ruble. The Russian government has allocated unprecedented funds for the war against Ukraine.
For 2025, Russia’s budget includes a 25% increase in military spending, bringing it to 13.49 trillion rubles ($175.37 billion). Military expenditures will account for 32.5% of the budget, an unprecedented level since the Soviet era. By comparison, during the first year of the war against Ukraine, the government spent 17% of its budget on the military. In 2023, this figure rose to 19%, and the 2024 year’s allocation stands at 29.5%.
- Interest rates are expected to hit 23% this month.
- Despite the high interest rates, inflation isn’t going down, running at an official rate of 9% (and unofficially much higher).
- Food staples are up even more, from 12% for bread to 74% for potatoes. Stores are locking up butter to prevent theft.
- Russian business bankruptcies are up 30%.
- Russia’s rail system can’t afford preventive maintenance due to higher interest rates.
- Russia’s current low unemployment is driven by government spending on its war economy, and its not sustainable.
- The military sector is sucking in more and more manpower, leaving fewer and fewer workers for other sectors of the economy hit by higher labor costs, higher interest rates, and higher inflation.
- Unequal distribution of the gusher of war economy money is screwing the poor even harder.
- Even Putin says Russia needs another million workers.
- “There is a shrinking number of people who can keep Putin’s war machine running.”
—is the collapse of Assad’s Syria, an important client state for Russia:
Russia is in a pickle getting its men and equipment home, because it can’t overfly nations hostile to it (most of them), it can’t sail ships home through the Bosporus (Montreux Convention), and it probably can’t get them all the way home up to its Baltic ports because it can’t refuel and resupply at hostile NATO ports (I wonder if a combination of Mediterranean African ports and at-sea resupply could get the job done). Plus Russia has been resupplying its mercenary army supporting Africa’s League of Assholes (Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso) from Syria, and Assad’s fall puts the entire operation in jeopardy.
The stresses on Russia are only going to get worse moving forward. For all the talk that Trump is going to bail Russia out, Volodymyr Zelenskyy evidently doesn’t think so. Plus one of Trump’s key negotiating tactics is to threaten whatever the other party holds most dear to force them to agree to a deal. And given Russia’s numerous manifest weaknesses, Trump is going to go into talks with an awful lot of leverage points…
The Battle Of The Bulge: 80th Anniversary
Tuesday, December 17th, 2024Eighty years ago, on December 16, 1944, Hitler’s last-ditch effort to stave off defeat in World War II got underway. Using the same trick Germany had used twice before (1914 and 1940), they launched a massive offensive push through the Ardennes that came to be known as the Battle of the Bulge. To quote Wikipedia, the source of all vaguely accurate knowledge:
The Germans’ initial attack involved 410,000 men; just over 1,400 tanks, tank destroyers, and assault guns; 2,600 artillery pieces; 1,600 anti-tank guns; and over 1,000 combat aircraft, as well as large numbers of other armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). These were reinforced a couple of weeks later, bringing the offensive’s total strength to around 450,000 troops, and 1,500 tanks and assault guns. Between 63,222 and 98,000 of these men were killed, missing, wounded in action, or captured. For the Americans, out of a peak of 610,000 troops, 89,000 became casualties out of which some 19,000 were killed. The “Bulge” was the largest and bloodiest single battle fought by the United States in World War II and the third deadliest campaign in American history.
Though well-planned and executed, achieving the element of surprise against outmanned and outgunned American forces, German forces soon bogged down due to harsh weather conditions and fiercer-than-anticipated resistance. In particular, the town of Bastogne, through which all seven main roads in the Ardennes highlands converged, was supposed to fall early in the campaign, paving the way to the Meuse River and the ultimate objective of Antwerp beyond. Instead, American forces held off the Germans just long enough for the 101st Airborne and other forces to mount a perimeter defense around Bastogne.
Surrounded on all sides, outnumbered 5-1, low on supplies and ill-equipped for cold weather fighting, American forces were asked to surrender. Brigadier General Anthony McAuliffe answered with one of the most famous replies in the history of warfare: “NUTS!” American forces would stave off repeated attacks, until a resupply airdrop on the 26th and elements of Patton’s Third Army arrived on the 27th to lift the siege of Bastogne.
Another hard month of fighting lay ahead (aided by better weather and America’s overwhelming air superiority) until the “bulge” was entirely eradicated, but after Bastogne, Hitler’s last great gamble had failed.
Here’s the Simple History video overview:
The Battle of the Bulge produced 21 Medal of Honor winners.
See also: