Posts Tagged ‘Military’

Russia Showing Visible Cracks

Wednesday, December 18th, 2024

More than two years into Putin’s three day Special Operation, Russia is starting to show extensive cracks in its facade of normalcy.

  • Would you believe the return of food rationing?

    Russian lawmakers have proposed introducing food ration cards across the entire country in response to rising prices, claiming the idea has a “healthy foundation”, the Moscow Times wrote on Dec. 15.

    Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma’s Committee on Financial Markets, endorsed the idea of reintroducing food vouchers reminiscent of those used in the Soviet Union – the proposal, initially suggested by the Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast governor.

    Aksakov believes the initiative should be expanded nationwide. The Russian official stated that food vouchers would help “support socially vulnerable groups,” though he did not specify a potential monthly allowance for these cards.

    “As of Dec. 9, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development reported annual inflation reaching 9.2%, the highest level since February 2023. However, alternative metrics indicate significantly higher figures,” the publication noted.

    Food ration cards in Kaliningrad Oblast are set to roll out in 2025, targeting pensioners with incomes below the subsistence minimum.

    On Dec. 10, it was reported that the Kremlin had significantly increased military spending amid a catastrophic collapse of the ruble. The Russian government has allocated unprecedented funds for the war against Ukraine.

    For 2025, Russia’s budget includes a 25% increase in military spending, bringing it to 13.49 trillion rubles ($175.37 billion). Military expenditures will account for 32.5% of the budget, an unprecedented level since the Soviet era. By comparison, during the first year of the war against Ukraine, the government spent 17% of its budget on the military. In 2023, this figure rose to 19%, and the 2024 year’s allocation stands at 29.5%.

  • And how is the rest of the Russian economy doing? The parts supporting the war are doing great, but the rest is overheating due to inflation and crumpling under the load of high interest rates.

    • Interest rates are expected to hit 23% this month.
    • Despite the high interest rates, inflation isn’t going down, running at an official rate of 9% (and unofficially much higher).
    • Food staples are up even more, from 12% for bread to 74% for potatoes. Stores are locking up butter to prevent theft.
    • Russian business bankruptcies are up 30%.
    • Russia’s rail system can’t afford preventive maintenance due to higher interest rates.
    • Russia’s current low unemployment is driven by government spending on its war economy, and its not sustainable.
    • The military sector is sucking in more and more manpower, leaving fewer and fewer workers for other sectors of the economy hit by higher labor costs, higher interest rates, and higher inflation.
    • Unequal distribution of the gusher of war economy money is screwing the poor even harder.
    • Even Putin says Russia needs another million workers.
    • “There is a shrinking number of people who can keep Putin’s war machine running.”
  • Speaking of Russia’s illegal war of territorial aggression, just how is that going? Given that Russia now has 63-year old recruits, I’ve got to guess not that well.

  • Also, two Russian oil tankers sank in the Kerch Strait, reportedly because they were river going vessels, and thus not rated for seaborne stresses. That suggests that Russia’s oil transportation capability is in serious trouble.
  • Also in serious trouble: Russia’s arms export industry, thanks to how poorly their arms have performed in Ukraine.

  • Finally, largely (though not entirely) unrelated to the Ukraine quagmire—

    —is the collapse of Assad’s Syria, an important client state for Russia:

    Russia is in a pickle getting its men and equipment home, because it can’t overfly nations hostile to it (most of them), it can’t sail ships home through the Bosporus (Montreux Convention), and it probably can’t get them all the way home up to its Baltic ports because it can’t refuel and resupply at hostile NATO ports (I wonder if a combination of Mediterranean African ports and at-sea resupply could get the job done). Plus Russia has been resupplying its mercenary army supporting Africa’s League of Assholes (Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso) from Syria, and Assad’s fall puts the entire operation in jeopardy.

  • The stresses on Russia are only going to get worse moving forward. For all the talk that Trump is going to bail Russia out, Volodymyr Zelenskyy evidently doesn’t think so. Plus one of Trump’s key negotiating tactics is to threaten whatever the other party holds most dear to force them to agree to a deal. And given Russia’s numerous manifest weaknesses, Trump is going to go into talks with an awful lot of leverage points…

    The Battle Of The Bulge: 80th Anniversary

    Tuesday, December 17th, 2024

    Eighty years ago, on December 16, 1944, Hitler’s last-ditch effort to stave off defeat in World War II got underway. Using the same trick Germany had used twice before (1914 and 1940), they launched a massive offensive push through the Ardennes that came to be known as the Battle of the Bulge. To quote Wikipedia, the source of all vaguely accurate knowledge:

    The Germans’ initial attack involved 410,000 men; just over 1,400 tanks, tank destroyers, and assault guns; 2,600 artillery pieces; 1,600 anti-tank guns; and over 1,000 combat aircraft, as well as large numbers of other armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). These were reinforced a couple of weeks later, bringing the offensive’s total strength to around 450,000 troops, and 1,500 tanks and assault guns. Between 63,222 and 98,000 of these men were killed, missing, wounded in action, or captured. For the Americans, out of a peak of 610,000 troops, 89,000 became casualties out of which some 19,000 were killed. The “Bulge” was the largest and bloodiest single battle fought by the United States in World War II and the third deadliest campaign in American history.

    Though well-planned and executed, achieving the element of surprise against outmanned and outgunned American forces, German forces soon bogged down due to harsh weather conditions and fiercer-than-anticipated resistance. In particular, the town of Bastogne, through which all seven main roads in the Ardennes highlands converged, was supposed to fall early in the campaign, paving the way to the Meuse River and the ultimate objective of Antwerp beyond. Instead, American forces held off the Germans just long enough for the 101st Airborne and other forces to mount a perimeter defense around Bastogne.

    Surrounded on all sides, outnumbered 5-1, low on supplies and ill-equipped for cold weather fighting, American forces were asked to surrender. Brigadier General Anthony McAuliffe answered with one of the most famous replies in the history of warfare: “NUTS!” American forces would stave off repeated attacks, until a resupply airdrop on the 26th and elements of Patton’s Third Army arrived on the 27th to lift the siege of Bastogne.

    Another hard month of fighting lay ahead (aided by better weather and America’s overwhelming air superiority) until the “bulge” was entirely eradicated, but after Bastogne, Hitler’s last great gamble had failed.

    Here’s the Simple History video overview:

    The Battle of the Bulge produced 21 Medal of Honor winners.

    See also:

  • Five Things Bbout The Battle of the Bulge
  • The Battle of the Bulge: A Helmet Full of Beer
  • Memorial Day: Remembering Henry F. Warner
  • Is Damascus Falling? Update: Yep.

    Saturday, December 7th, 2024

    While we were looking at the rebel advance on Homs, another rebel force seems to have boiled up to successfully invest Damascus from the south.

    Syrian rebel groups reported gains in the country’s south on Saturday, capturing swaths of territory including Daraa, the city known as the birthplace of the country’s 2011 uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, and closing in on the capital, Damascus.

    Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the armed Islamist faction that made stunning gains in the north over the past week, said its forces had begun encircling Damascus after sweeping advances by other rebel groups to the south. The group said that its forces had also carried out an operation Saturday within Homs, a strategic choke point between rebel-controlled areas in the north and the capital.

    As its grip on the south crumbled, the Syrian cabinet held an emergency meeting to address the attacks by “armed terrorist gangs” on “a number of cities and regions.” The Syrian military denied that it had withdrawn from areas of the Damascus countryside but said that its forces in the southwestern cities of Daraa and Sweida had “redeployed” to new positions after rebel fighters had “attacked the army’s checkpoints and military points.”

    The Southern Operations Room, a newly announced rebel faction in the south, announced its control of the province of Daraa and vowed to “continue until the liberation of Damascus.” Videos posted online and verified by the Agence France-Presse news agency showed a statue of former president Hafez al-Assad being toppled in the city. The Syrian state news agency SANA said that “the sounds heard in some areas of the southern Damascus countryside are of long-range targeting and shooting at terrorist gatherings in Daraa.”

    The faction also said Saturday it had taken control of Quneitra, near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in southwestern Syria. The claim could not immediately be independently confirmed. The Southern Operations Room added that its forces were working to “complete the siege of the capital.”

    Sweida, a city in southwestern Syria inhabited by members of the Druze religious minority, was under the control of Druze factions on Saturday morning after the army withdrew, said a 29-year-old local activist who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons. The relationship of the southern rebels with HTS remains unclear, but their advance has activated and invigorated local opposition groups.

    HTS said Saturday that its forces had captured the city of al-Sanamayn, north of Daraa, and were about 12 miles away from the “southern gate” of the Damascus. The group’s forces have also been closing in on Homs. The Syrian military said forces around Homs and rebel-held Hama have been “carrying out intensive artillery and missile fire on terrorist locations and supply lines, achieving direct hits.”

    Here’s a snapshot of the overall military situation, with red for Assad-controlled territory and green for that of the rebels:

    And here’s a closer view of the Damascus area:

    There’s report after report on Liveumap of Assad forces abandoning various posts throughout the city.

    With rebels already in the south of the Damascus and another rebel group coming in from the west, the situation looks pretty dire for Assad.

    Here’s a SkyNews video of rebels in the Damascus suburbs toppling a state of Bashar Assad’s father, Hafez Assad:

    Notice that many participating in the toppling just seem to be ordinary Syrians, and not members of rebel groups.

    It looks like Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah weakened Bashar Assad even more than previously suspected, and Iran’s overreach in supporting so many regional jihadest groups at the same time has left them so dangerously overextended that they will not be able to save their most important regional ally from falling.

    This is a fast-moving breaking story, but I’d say there’s a 90+% chance that Assad’s goose is cooked.

    Update: Unconfirmed reports that Assad has fled Syria in his private plane and flown to Abu Dhabi. Update 2: Maybe not? “Axios: Israeli security sources report that their intelligence suggests Assad remains in Damascus.”

    Update 3: Rebels appear to have taken Homs.

    Update 4: Less than a day, and the map has already drastically changed:

    Update 5: Israel reportedly hits a Hezbollah column reportedly trying to bugger back to Lebanon.

    Update 6: Reuters says that Assad has left Syria.

    Update 7: There’s some evidence that Assad’s plane may have been shot down.

    Update 8: It appears that Assad has now arrive in Moscow, and that Russia has granted he and his family asylum.

    LinkSwarm For December 6, 2024

    Friday, December 6th, 2024

    Greetings, and welcome to the Friday LinkSwarm! This one will be huge, since I didn’t do one last week. Biden pardons his crackhead/bagman son, Holman is serious about deporting illegal aliens, Trump taps some Texans,

  • Did you hear that, after swearing up and down that he would never pardon his son Hunter Biden, Joe Biden pardoned his son Hunter Biden? “Joe Biden’s pardon covers the time period from January 1, 2014 to December 1, 2024, relieving his son of any crimes he “may have committed or taken part in” over an 11 year period.” Wow, it’s almost like Joe was running a pay-for-play foreign influence peddling operation and Hunter was his bagman
  • And now Democrats are shocked, shocked at the Biden pardon. So all of them are idiots, suckers or liars. (Or all three.) (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Enjoy all these liberal talking heads swearing up and down Biden would never pardon Hunter.
  • Last federal case against Trump dismissed. The lawfare against Trump was always a kangaroo court abuse of power.
  • Everything is coming up Trump and the resistance is crumbling.

    Not only is Donald Trump returning to the White House, not only do Republicans have 53 Senate seats and about 220 seats to control the House of Representatives, but Republicans now control almost 55 percent of state legislative seats nationwide. Republicans won control of the Michigan state house of representatives, and the Minnesota state house of representatives shifted from a 70–64 Democratic advantage to a 67–67 tie. (Rough year for Tim Walz all around.) Twenty-three states have Republican governors and GOP-controlled state legislatures, just 15 states have the Democratic equivalent, and twelve states have divided governments.

    If the election of Trump came as a shock to Democrats, it is perhaps even more shocking that, at least for now, a solid majority of Americans are giving the incoming president the benefit of the doubt. The latest Economist/YouGov poll found 51 percent of Americans have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Trump, the highest level going back at least as far as the start of his first term as president. For a long, long stretch, that number was around 40 percent.

    This weekend a CBS News poll found that 59 percent of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the transition. Perhaps this figure reflects that Trump’s announced cabinet picks have something for everyone. For hawks, there’s Marco Rubio. For doves and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, there’s Tulsi Gabbard. For those who see the Covid vaccines as “a gift from God,” there’s the surgeon general nominee, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat. For those who hate vaccines and erroneously believe they cause autism, there’s Robert F. Kennedy Jr. For those who love dogs, there’s attorney general nominee Pam Bondi, who adopted a dog abandoned during Hurricane Katrina. For those who hate dogs, there’s Kristi Noem.

    That CBS poll also found that “there seems to be a sense of exhaustion, as fewer than half of Democrats feel motivated to oppose Trump right now.” And who can begrudge Democrats exhaustion after an election cycle that arguably started a week after the midterm elections? Saul Alinsky warned in Rules for Radicals, “A tactic that drags on for too long becomes a drag. Commitment may become ritualistic as people turn to other issues.”

    Evidently nine years of Trump Derangement Syndrome can be exhausting…

  • Trump’s new border czar Tom Homan isn’t fooling around.

    You’re in the country illegally, you’re not off the table. I mean we’ve been looking for fugitives. There’s over a million illegal aliens in this country who got due process at great taxpayer expense, were ordered removed by a judge, and failed to leave.

    We’ll be moving on to those who may not be a criminal, may not be a fugitive, but they entered this country illegally, which is a crime. And they’re here illegally and they’re not off the table.

  • Denver mayor Mayor Mike Johnston says he’s going to resist the enforcement of immigration law in his city. Homan: Get ready to go to jail.
  • Speaking of people who should be going to jail for blocking immigration enforcement: “California Allegedly Threatens Police Officers Over Deportation Compliance. CA mayor: The State of California “is threatening to take pensions and charge police officers with felonies if they comply with federal deportation laws.”

    Bill Wells, the mayor of El Cajon, California, claimed in a Monday post on X that the State of California “is threatening to take pensions and charge police officers with felonies if they comply with federal deportation laws. While the Trump administration is working to enforce immigration laws, California seems intent on blocking these efforts.”

    Wells makes it clear that El Cajon, a city of approximately 100,000 people located 17 miles east of San Diego, is not a sanctuary city and that his police officers “are being put in an impossible position.”

    Maybe Homan can start preparing an indictment against Gavin Newsom.

  • Strangely enough, Brian Williams gets it.

    It’s insulting when members of the working class, which the Democratic Party has lost entirely in our lifetimes, to insist the economy is doing great. A 12-pack of Bounty is $40. Rich folks don’t feel that…

    I think telling them that the Nasdaq is gangbusters is further insulting. It’s insulting, the biggest unforced error of the Biden administration, by far, was the border. To tell people that it’s not a problem is insulting. For the working class to see incoming migrants getting welcome bags, debit cards, and motel rooms is probably insulting as well …

    They handed out camo hats that said ‘Harris-Walz’ the Democrats were kind of charmed by that. Their party has gone quinoa and the rest of America is eating at Cracker Barrel … it was an ironic use of something that millions of Americans put on their heads to start their day every day.

  • It’s about damn time: “Voters ‘abandoning’ the Democratic Party.”

    Harvard University’s celebrated pollster John Della Volpe has a message for the new leader of the Democratic Party: Move fast with proven solutions for voters who are hurting, or the party is doomed.

    “Millions of Americans aren’t shifting right — they’re walking away. They’re abandoning a Democratic Party and democratic system they believe abandoned them first. This isn’t realignment — it’s abandonment,” the pollster known for his surveys of the youth vote said.

    In a memo to the incoming leader of the Democratic National Committee posted on his Substack, “JDV on Gen Z,” Della Volpe was blunt in his assessment of the nation and the 2024 election. The bottom line for the Democrats, he said, is that it needs a massive reinvention and focus on kitchen-table issues and less on wokeness.

    “This post-election analysis should not start with the question about moving left or right. It must begin by filling the vacuum of unaddressed daily struggles before it gets filled with something else. The typical response will be to fill that vacuum with new policies, messages, or words. But that’s precisely backward. Before we can talk about solutions, we need to rebuild trust. Before we can restore trust, we need to listen. Really listen,” he wrote.

    (Hat tip: Instapundit.)

  • So what did the Harris campaign get wrong? According to the campaign itself, absolutely nothing.

    (Hat tip: Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit.)

  • What happened to those missing 4 million 2020 presidential votes? (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • “NYT & Bloomberg Bury Rutgers Study Showing DEI Makes People Hostile.

    Corporate media outlets have buried, downplayed, or otherwise shelved a new study which reveals that “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) policies cause people to become ‘hostile’ – essentially seeing racism where none exists.

    The new study from the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) and Rutgers University found that people exposed to DEI talking points about race, religion and gender form integroup hostility and authoritarian attitudes towards others.

    “What we did was we took a lot of these ideas that were found to still be very prominent in a lot of these DEI lectures and interventions and training,” said NCRI Chief Science Officer Joel Finkelstein, a co-author of the study. “And we said, ‘Well, how is this going to affect people?’ What we found is that when people are exposed to this ideology, what happens is they become hostile without any indication that anything racist has happened.”

    Researchers exposed 324 participants to two sets of reading material; a racially-neutral text about corn, or the writings of race-baiters Ibram X. Kendi or Robin DiAngelo. The participants were then exposed to a racially neutral scenario in which a student was rejected from college.

    Social justice always makes everything worse.

  • Tablet offers a deep dive into the minority voter switch to the Republican Party.

    President Donald Trump’s return to power earlier this month was remarkable—among other reasons—for the breadth of the coalition that powered it. As Armin Rosen has documented for Tablet, by many measures Jews swung toward Trump, particularly in pivotal precincts. But they were just part of a minority-group wave: Exit polling and precinct analysis suggest large increases in the Black, Hispanic, and Asian vote for Trump.

    Although Trump did not win outright majorities of any of these groups, Harris’ underperformance still marks a remarkable shift. The president slandered as a racist and antisemite outperformed prior Republicans among minorities of all types: Why?

    One easy answer, of course, is the uniform rightward swing of the electorate, fueled by anger over inflation, an uncontrolled border, and Harris’ barely hidden far-left views. And future elections will probably see some bounce back.

    But this argument misses the longer trend: Minority voters, once Democratic stalwarts, have been inching toward the GOP for decades. As the Financial Times’ John Burn-Murdoch has showed, the GOP share of the nonwhite vote has been rising on and off since the 2000s. That mirrors trends among Jews: Over the past several elections, the Democratic share of the Jewish vote has shrunk, from around 80% in the 1990s and 2000s to around 70% in the 2010s and 2020s.

    As the Jewish demographer Milton Himmelfarb famously wrote, Jews earn like Episcopalians, but vote like Puerto Ricans. If Puerto Ricans and Jews are both moving right, though, then maybe they’re moving right for similar reasons. Explanations that rely on Democratic antisemitism or affection for socialism are special pleading. The neater explanation is that the same social forces are pushing Black, Hispanic, Jewish, and other minority voters toward the Republicans.

    Why are minority groups moving right? As a body of political science argues, the answer is the breakdown of the social institutions that kept them voting for group over ideology. Among Jews, a similar, albeit reversed, phenomenon might be happening: The collapse of Jewish communal life might be giving Jews permission to break from the old ideological consensus.

    If that’s true, though, it has profound implications for the political future—of the Jews and everyone else.

    In a sense, the question is not why minority voters are moving right, but why they have stayed left for so long. After all, Black and Hispanic Democrats are more moderate ideologically than their white Democrat peers. And the ideological gap between white and nonwhite Democrats has only grown in recent years—implying Black and Hispanic voters should be more willing to swing between parties. Yet in 2020, for example, 60% of Black voters who identified as conservative voted for Joe Biden, compared to 9% of white conservatives. Why?

    The conventional explanation for this phenomenon is what political scientists call “linked fate,” the tendency of group members to see their individual well-being as linked to the overall well-being of the group, and so to consider group interest in making electoral decisions. Even if a Hispanic voter would prefer conservative policies, for example, she may still vote for the Democrats under the theory that Hispanic group interest is served by doing so. Such thinking is most common among Black Americans, but has been shown to explain Latino voting behavior as well.

    The sense of linked fate, though, is in part socially constructed. Minority voters don’t consider their fates to be linked in a vacuum—they reach that conclusion thanks, in part, to the work of social institutions. In their recent book Steadfast Democrats: How Social Forces Shape Black Political Behavior, political scientists Ismail White and Chryl Laird look specifically at Black political identification, including with the Democratic Party. They argue that Blacks’ lopsided support for Democrats is driven by social pressure from the broader Black community.

    “The steady reality that Black Americans’ kinship and social networks tend to be populated by other Blacks,” White and Laird write, “means they persistently anticipate social costs for failing to choose Democratic politics and social benefits for compliance with these group expectations.” They show in survey evidence and experiments that Black voters change their behavior when around other Black people—a proxy for the effect of social pressure in general. This “social constraint” strategy helps ensure that Black voters vote their racial identity, even when doing so is apparently at odds with their ideology.

    Though it may sound unusual, this is a perfectly rational political strategy for minority groups in a large, pluralistic democracy. Being able to deliver lopsided group margins is one way a minority group’s leaders can curry favor with a party. Indeed, White and Laird identify tendencies toward social constraint among “Southern whites, white evangelical Christians, trade union members, and certain localized racial and ethnic groups.” Social constraint is not necessarily an exception—to the extent that any group has its own political interests, it has a reason to suppress dissent in the ranks.

    Can the “social constraint” model explain Jewish voting patterns? As I’ve argued previously, one way to understand Jews’ strong support of Democrats is our unusually strong ideological commitments. Since at least the 19th century, Jews in America have been more left wing than the general public. And they associate those values with their identity. When asked by Pew what things were most essential to being Jewish, a majority of respondents listed “working for justice/equality” as a key component of their identity, with an even larger majority among the non-Orthodox.

    But ideology, like partisanship, can be socially constructed. Jews have a strong sense of in-group identity, with 85% saying they have “a great deal” or “some” sense of belonging to the Jewish people. Most Jews have at least some close friends who are Jewish; 29% say all or most of their close friends are Jewish. And Jews are highly concentrated geographically, with roughly half of American Jews living in the New York, Los Angeles, Miami, or Philadelphia metropolitan areas alone.

    Collectively, those facts suggest that—like Blacks, and other ethnic minorities—Jews’ “kinship and social networks tend be populated by” other Jews. Even in the non-Orthodox world, a Jewish person’s interactions with both fellow Jews and Jewish institutions may serve to reinforce his ideological commitments. After all, what right-leaning Jew has not been once or twice told his views are a shanda?

    If social pressures produce in-group conformity among minority voters, then it stands to reason that they produce ideological conformity among Jews, too. But what happens to that conformity when the social pressures start to break down?

    If you wanted to pack the history of the 21st century thus far into a single sentence, you could do worse than “20th-century social institutions collapsed.” As political scientist Robert Putnam has repeatedly argued, Americans have seen a steady decline in “social capital,” the network of interpersonal relationships that provide them informal means of individual security and advancement. The families, churches, and community groups which sustained that capital are in more or less continuous decline. That decline, though, has meant not just a reduction in the available stock of social capital, but also in those institutions’ ability to shape behavior—in their ability to impose social constraint.

  • How the great illegal alien deportation will occur.

    Decades of unwillingness to enforce immigration laws were driven by the desire of some for cheap, controllable labor, and of others for a new client class that would shift political power to the Democratic Party. The culmination of that process under Biden became entwined with the identity of the party and its ideological activists who sincerely believe that national borders are an expression of racism and that turning away foreigners who want to move here illegally is immoral. The belief in unlimited, lawless immigration has become a litmus-test issue for the activist left, like hostility to the existence of law enforcement itself.

    And because most voters naturally consider that insane, we now see broad public support, including among first-generation migrants, for “mass deportation” and an electoral mandate for what the president-elect has promised will be the “largest deportation effort in American history.”

    Restoring credibility after decades of deceit will take time, cost money, get tied up in courts, and inevitably involve an unfortunate measure of human suffering, the images of which will be ruthlessly exploited for political purposes by the media and the interests they serve. But it’s neither the Manhattan Project nor the D-Day landings—it’s simply a matter of enforcing existing law consistently and without apology, which is the legal and popular mandate the American people have given the incoming administration.

    Herewith a look at what’s likely to be involved.

    When your tub is overflowing, you first turn off the tap. Mass impunity at the border will be the first thing to stop, because there’s no point to deporting people if it’s easy for them to return.

    What drove the crisis under Biden was a policy of catch-and-release—millions of border-jumpers were simply waved into the country by a Border Patrol that the current administration turned into the equivalent of Walmart greeters. The illegal migrants told their friends back home, and more came. Human-trafficking cartels turned it into a massive business.

    There are two ways to end catch-and-release: 1) detain illegal border-crossers until they can be repatriated, or 2) if they make an asylum claim, ensure that they wait across the border in Mexico for their court dates.

    Option 1 will require a significant increase in spending and logistical assistance from the U.S. military. The Biden administration has consistently reduced DHS’s detention capacity, closing government-owned facilities and canceling contracts with private firms and county jails. That pattern will have to be reversed.

    Option 2 is cheaper and easier, but requires Mexico’s consent, because the country has no obligation to take back non-Mexican migrants, which account for the majority of attempted crossings. In late 2018, this option was instituted as the “Migrant Protection Protocols” (commonly known as “Remain in Mexico”); Mexico went along with it after President Trump threatened punishing tariffs on its exports to the U.S.

    It was successful almost overnight. In January 2021, Biden canceled the program.

    Despite the fact that Mexico’s new president is more of a conventional leftist than her predecessor, she is likely to be cooperative with the new Trump administration’s demands to restore Remain in Mexico, given that the U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is up for review in 2026. Access to the U.S. market is far more important to Mexico than any rhetorical solidarity with foreigners using its territory as a means of entering the U.S.

    These and other measures (such as “safe third country” agreements requiring migrants to have applied for asylum in one of the countries they passed through before reaching the U.S. border) will succeed in stabilizing the border. But what about those already here? Sending back people who’ve just recently snuck across the border is one thing, but finding and removing those already in the interior is something else altogether.

    The Biden administration has released into the country close to 6 million foreigners with no legal right to enter, and another 2 million are believed to have eluded the overwhelmed Border Patrol, the so-called gotaways.

    They join a large illegal population already here, though because of constant churn in the illegal population (people returning home, dying, or obtaining a green card), these numbers can’t simply be added to prior estimates. Census Bureau data suggests there are now at least 14 million total illegal aliens—given the imprecision of such estimates, the real number could easily be 15 or 16 million, though higher numbers bandied about by some Republican politicians of 30 or 40 million are implausible.

    The opponents of immigration enforcement want to make this seem like an insuperable problem. The American Immigration Council, the think tank of the immigration lawyers’ lobby, has estimated it would cost close to a trillion dollars over a decade to return the illegal population to their home countries.

    Vice President-elect Vance addressed this counsel of resignation and surrender by likening the problem to “a really big sandwich. It’s 10 times the size of your mouth. How are you possibly going to eat the whole thing?”

    His answer:

    you take the first bite and then you take the second bite, and then you take the third bite. Let’s start with the first million who are the most violent criminals, who are the most aggressive. Get them out of here. First prioritize them, and then you see where you are, and you keep on taking bites of the problem, until you get illegal immigration to a serviceable point.

    Starting the deportation effort by focusing on criminals is both politically astute and simplest to manage. The Biden administration has reduced deportations of criminals by 67% compared to Trump I, so there’s nowhere to go but up. Criminal aliens are picked up every day by police in the normal course of their duties for all manner of nonimmigration crimes. Taking them off the hands of local law enforcement—either as an alternative to prosecution or after they’ve completed their sentences—is a no-brainer.

    Read the whole thing. The people who say it’s impossible are simply lying because they don’t want it done.

  • “California’s fast food industry shed more than 6,000 jobs after Democratic lawmakers passed a bill mandating a $20 minimum wage for most fast food and counter service restaurants in the state.”
  • Related: “More than 96% of all new jobs in California in the last two years have been government work.”
  • UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson gunned down in Manhattan.
  • Trump nominates two Texans to his cabinet.

    President-elect Donald Trump has begun to fill out his cabinet with new names coming each week, and two recent nominations have strong ties to Texas.

    Nominated to be Secretary of the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Trump has tapped former member of the Texas Legislature, Scott Turner.

    Turner served as a member of the Texas House from 2013 to 2017 — he challenged then-House Speaker Joe Straus, but ultimately lost his run for the gavel.

    Trump in his first administration appointed Turner to head the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council.

    The 2025 President’s Budget has requested $72.6 billion for HUD and $185 billion over 10 years for “affordable housing investments.”

    Another recent Texan to be nominated for the upcoming Trump cabinet is President and CEO of America First Policy Institute Brooke Rollins.

    A native of Glen Rose, Rollins has been chosen as the nominee to become the next Secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

    “Brooke’s commitment to support the American Farmer, defense of American Food Self-Sufficiency, and the restoration of Agriculture-dependent American Small Towns is second to none,” Trump wrote on TruthSocial.

    Rollins held previous positions in the first Trump administration, as well as being president of the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

    I like Turner’s starch in running against Straus, and Rollins helped turn TPPF into a think tank power house, so both seem like good picks for Trump. And you’ve got to balance out all the Floridians somehow…

  • Democrat megadonor John Morgan says Kamala was clueless and thought she was Obama. Plus: Barron Trump is smarter than Kamala’s entire team, because he urged his father to go on Joe Rogan.
  • Kamala Harris says she’s open to running for President again in 2028.

  • Syrian rebels have evidently taken Hama.
  • Meanwhile, Russia abandoned its Tartus Naval base and its Khmeimim airbase in Syria.
  • And now Syrian rebels are on the outskirts of Homs, the last big city before Damascus itself. If they take it, it will essentially split Assad-controlled Syria into two parts.
  • Trump FCC head pick Brenden Carr says that his main job is to destroy big tech’s censorship cartel. Good.
  • Imagine there’s a link here to the Biden Administration strong-arming Israel into a ceasefire with Hezbollah, only for Hezbollah to start breaking the treaty in, what, an hour?
  • CFO of Ronald McDonald House of the Capital Region fired after allegedly defacing pro-Trump sign.”
  • Ukrainian drones hit oil facility in Kaluga.
  • They also hit a shipyard near the Kerch strait bridge.
  • A new turret toss champion!
  • Russia’s been reduced to using Ladas to attack Ukrainian positions. For those unfamiliar with the name, that’s a brand of Soviet/Russian automobiles. So no armor and precious little reliability…
  • “Philippine VP Sara Duterte publicly threatens to assassinate her country’s President in retaliation if something happens to her.” And impeachment charges have been filed against her. That’s President Fredinand Marcos, jr., AKA Bongbong Marcos.
  • Dade Phelan bows out of the Texas House Speaker’s race. This was after he lost another House ally ahead of Saturday’s GOP caucus speaker vote. State Rep. Trent Ashby announced he was supporting State Rep. David Cook’s bid. “These endorsements bring Cook’s total public commitments to 48, giving him a majority within the 88-member Republican caucus.”
  • Sex trafficking busts in Montgomery county (immediately north of Harris County).

    Montgomery County Constable Ryan Gable announced that a three-day operation this month resulted in numerous arrests associated with prostitution, child trafficking, and drug offenses.

    The constable’s office collaborated with the Houston Police Department and received support from the Human Trafficking Rescue Alliance (HTRA) and the Houston Metro Internet Crimes Against Children (ICAC) Task Force to successfully carry out this operation.

    During a Friday morning press conference, Gable explained working with ICAC was essential, as the internet has become a major platform for those who exploit children and traffic victims for sexual purposes. The partnership between HTRA and ICAC investigations enabled the use of digital forensics and online tracking to uncover trafficking networks. The three-day investigation, dubbed Operation Safe Haven, resulted in numerous arrests and the recovery of one victim.

    The operation’s results include:

    • Seven arrests for prostitution.
    • Three arrests for promotion of prostitution.
    • Four arrests for online solicitation of a minor (including the capture of a registered sex offender).
    • One arrest for child trafficking.
    • One arrest for unlawful possession of a firearm by a convicted felon.
    • One arrest for evading law enforcement.
    • One arrest for possession of a prohibited weapon.
    • Two arrests related to drug offenses.
    • One juvenile recovered.
  • “An illegal alien from Guatemala has been arrested in Massachusetts and charged with raping a child. Mynor Stiven De Paz-Munoz, 21, entered the country illegally in the Eagle Pass area in September 2020. He was arrested in Boston by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement earlier this month.”
  • Harris county judges are breaking state law by terminating probation for sex offenders.
  • “California assistant principal charged with molesting 8 elementary school children….David Lane Braff Jr., 42, was charged Friday with 17 counts of “lewd acts” on children under the age of 14. The alleged abuse occurred between 2015 and 2019 while Braff was employed as a counselor at McKevett Elementary School in Santa Paula. At the time of his arrest, Braff was serving as an assistant principal at Ingenium Charter Middle School in Los Angeles.”
  • Democratic Boston City Councilwoman Tania Fernandes Anderson arrested on federal kickback charges. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. “‘Defund The Police’ Activist Charged With Misusing Over $75,000 Donations On Vacations & Shopping Sprees…”Brandon Anderson misused charitable donations to fund lavish vacations and shopping sprees, and the Raheem AI board of directors let him get away with it.”
  • “[State Sen. Lois Kolkhorst (R–Brenham)] Files Legislation Mandating Utilization of E-Verify in Texas.”
  • Progress: “Southwest Airlines Agrees To End DEI Employment Practices In Response To Lawsuit.”
  • Nothing of value was lost obit: Liberian rebel Prince Johnson, who (among other atrocities) cut off Samuel Doe’s ears, cooked them, and then served them to Doe. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • In Canada: Arrested for Reporting While Jewish.
  • While other companies are running away from wokeness, Geico (which used to be a refuge from Progressive’s leftism) is forcing it down employees throats.

    Maybe you need to look at the emu guys…

  • Vox media lays off more staff.

  • Speaking of mismanagement, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares resigned over crashing Jeep and Ram Dodge sales. Here’s a hint for the next CEO:

  • “Washington Commanders Agree To Un-Cancel Redskins Logo.”
  • Australia hates car culture.
  • How George R. R. Martin put up his own money to adapt our mutual friend Howard Waldrop’s short fiction into movies.
  • Critical Drinker finally has a chance to review Wicked and…actually likes it.
  • A pretty cool Rick Beato interview with Yes keyboardist.
  • 10,000 vs. 300-ton hydraulic press.
  • The first house here redefines “busy.”
  • Remember the Rick & Morty where Rick invented a self-aware robot that was crushed when it found out its only purpose was to pass butter? Now there’s a Kickstarter for an AI-powered butter passing robot.
  • “Trump Announces Plan To Annex Canada And Rename It ‘Gay North Dakota.'”
  • “Biden Pardons Hunter For Anything He Might Do Tonight Between 2:30 and 4:17 AM Outside The Capitol Heights Applebee’s.”
  • “Musk Announces Plan To Buy MSNBC And Turn It Into A News Network.”
  • “Scholars Discover Little-Known Bible Verse Authorizing Divorce If Spouse Plays Christmas Music Before Thanksgiving.”
  • This parody trailer for Snow Woke proves that AI had gotten really good at produce convincing clips of a scantily-clad Gal Godot.
  • Not new, but enjoy these pictures of Eris the Borzoi, the dog with the world’s longest nose.
  • Syria’s Civil War Unfreezes

    Monday, December 2nd, 2024

    And the latest long-simmering hotspot to flare up overnight is (spins wheel) SYRIA!

    Who had their chips on Syria?

    The Syria civil war has more or less been frozen for the last, what, two years? That’s not the case anymore, as the anti-Assad forces just launched as massive attack that has Assad’s forces on their heels.

    All those green flags are anti-Assad attacks. More from JihadWatch.

    Syrian Islamist rebels appear to have made stunning territorial advances against the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad on Friday, re-entering the city of Aleppo for the first time in eight years amid the apparent collapse of government defenses in the area.

    Unconfirmed videos on social media suggest that rebel fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other groups captured parts of western Aleppo, which was Syria’s most populous city prior to the country’s ongoing civil war, which broke out in 2011.

    Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged as an al-Qaeda splinter faction, although it now rejects affiliation with the terror group. The United States designated HTS as a foreign terrorist organization in 2018.

    The offensive marks the rebels’ most significant advance, following years of stalemate in northwest Syria, with Turkish-backed rebels and HTS holding a narrow strip of territory around the provinces of Idlib and Afrin.

    Turkey and Russia signed a ceasefire in 2020 after agreeing to turn Idlib into a “de-escalation zone” in 2018.

    There are supposedly some pro-Assad holdouts in Aleppo.

    The interesting thing about Syria is a that it’s a back-burner conflict that ties into all the other conflicts in the region. Iran backs Syria, as well as Hamas and Hezbollah, against Egypt. Syria also backs Hezbollah, both against Israel and to maintain a level of control over neighboring Lebanon. Turkey backs some of the jihadist forces fighting against Syria, while others are backed by, I don’t know, pick a random Sunni dynastic petrostate and you’ve probably got fair odds of being right. Russia also backs Syria, and is also its number one arms supplier.

    And what do Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Russia all have in common? They’ve all been getting heir asses kicked in regional conflicts, either by Israel or by Ukraine, both of which are backed by the United States.

    Now must have seemed like the right time to settle Assad’s hash, with his catspaw Hezbollah absolutely wrecked by Israel and Russia too busy with their own conflict(s) to offer much if anything in the way of aid.

    Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) split off from al Qaeda and has evidently ruthless destroyed any al Qaeda fighters it can find, so…yay? They’re still jihadist scumbags, and have split/merged/changed acronyms five or six times since I last looked at the Syrian Civil War.

    A Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led Syria would probably be just as hostile to Israel…but not aligned with Iran.

    Half a yay?

    Russia responded to the collapse of Assad forces in Aleppo by…buggering out of Hama.

    Is the Assad regime about to fall? Maybe, as military collapse can become contagious, but Aleppo is a long way from Damascus. Remember, the Islamic State was racking up victory after victory right up until it wasn’t.

    I imagine Assad’s forces will be able to hold the capital, where resistance will stiffen up. Even before then, Homs probably won’t be a cake-walk either, but there’s also speculation that anti-Assad forces will try to take various Syrian post cities, which would put considerable economic pressure on Assad.

    Assad looks to be in deep trouble, but he’s slithered out of sticky predicaments before. Odds are he’ll survive this time as well, though no doubt seriously weakened.

    USA vs. Russia: Who Wins?

    Saturday, November 30th, 2024

    A certain commenter on a certain thread asserted that the Russo-Ukrainian War continued because “Putin determined that he could thoroughly degrade the military power of the United States.”

    Yeah. No.

    Rather than a detailed, point-by-point refutation, I’m going to let Habitual Linecrosser do they heavy lifting on this one.

    Plus Thanksgiving weekend is seriously impacting my blogging bandwidth, so it’s going to be a few days before you get any sort of LinkSwarm…

    LinkSwarm For November 22, 2024

    Friday, November 22nd, 2024

    The Trump witchunt trial is suspended, PA Democrats give up the steal, the ruble collapses, a real estate developer is busted for bribery, thrash metal TDS, and an unexpected voice of sanity and reason from…Cenk Uygur?

    It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • New York Judge Indefinitely Postpones Trump Hush-Money Sentencing, Will Consider Dismissing Case.” Why, it’s almost as if the entire farcical trial was a witch hunt from the beginning.

    Judge Juan Merchan indefinitely postponed the sentencing hearing in President-elect Donald Trump’s New York criminal case, which had been planned for next week, in light of Trump’s election.

    Merchan is giving Trump’s legal team more than a week to file its motion asking for a dismissal under the argument that his return to office provides him a new host of immunity-related defenses.

    Trump’s lawyers will be required to file by December 2, after which Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg will have until December 9 to respond.

    Snip.

    While Trump could face up to four years in prison, the more likely sentence in the case — should it move forward — would be probation, which could include some combination of a fine or community service, as the former and future president is a first-time offender.

    “Just as a sitting President is completely immune from any criminal process, so too is President Trump as President-elect,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in a letter filed Tuesday.

    Trump’s team had requested a December 20 deadline to file.

    Bragg, for his part, has argued in favor of freezing the case for the entirety of Trump’s term in office, and then revisiting the sentencing at the end of Trump’s tenure.

    But Trump attorneys Todd Blanche and Emil Bove have argued dismissal of the case “is necessary under the Constitution and federal law to facilitate the orderly transition of Executive power — and in the interests of justice — following President Trump’s victory in the Electoral College and the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential election.”

  • Democrat Bob Casey realizes he won’t be able to cheat his way to victory and concedes after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court reiterates that no, you’re not allowed to illegally count the ballots we’ve already declared illegal.
  • The Harris campaign spent $12 million doing polling on her strengths and weaknesses. I’m going to guess that the amount Trump spent on polling his strengths and weakness was “zero.”
  • Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration as Trump’s Attorney General, and former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is the new nominee.
  • Heh:

    (Hat tip: Instapundit.)

  • Musician turns Democrat freakouts into epic thrash metal:

  • Are we running out of gunpowder? (Hat tip: KR Training.)
  • To paraphrase Instapundit, we’ve entered some sort of hellworld where Cenk Uygur is a voice of moderation and reason, calling out far left pollster Allan Lichtman for blowing his election call, whereupon Lichtman shrieks that Uygur is committing “blasphemy” against him. Everyone and their dog has posted this, but I’m linking to the Asmongold clip because his seems to be the shortest.
  • Ukraine hit a military manufacturing facility 1,279 km from the Ukrainian border in a drone strike.
  • The Russian ruble hit a two year low against the dollar.
  • Trump intends to squeeze Iran.

    US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is preparing to reinstate its “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran, targeting Tehran’s economic stability and its ability to support militant proxies and nuclear development, The Financial Times reported on Saturday, citing sources close to the transition team.

    The sources revealed that the administration plans to impose stricter sanctions, particularly on Iran’s oil exports, which serve as a critical revenue source.

    The anticipated sanctions could drastically reduce Iranian oil exports, which currently exceed 1.5 million barrels per day, up from a low of 400,000 barrels per day in 2020. Experts suggest that these measures would severely impact Iran’s economy. Bob McNally, an energy consultant and former US presidential adviser, indicated that reducing exports to a fraction of current levels would leave Iran in a far worse economic position than during Trump’s first term.

  • The Danish Navy is following a Chinese ship suspected of severing communication cables in the Baltic Sea.
  • In a followup to yesterday’s story, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has ordered state entities to divest from investments in Communist China. “One investment group specifically highlighted in Abbott’s letter is the University of Texas/Texas A&M Investment Management Company (UTIMCO), which manages billions of dollars in assets for both university systems. UTIMCO has come under scrutiny after a Texas Scorecard investigation revealed its investments in more than 50 Chinese companies.”
  • Laken Riley’s illegal alien murderer convicted and sentenced to life without parole. Oh, and he had previously enjoyed a taxpayer-funded stay at the Roosevelt Hotel and a flight to Georgia. Thanks, Joe Biden.
  • El Salvador’s gang prison doesn’t play around. A whole lot of this would (rightfully) be considered cruel and unusual punishment, but we should veer more in this direction rather than putting illegal alien rapists up in hotels…
  • Michael Johnston, the mayor of Denver, “is “suggesting the use of force against ICE agents who are carrying out the lawful actions of the U.S. government.”
  • “Dallas Developer Pleads Guilty to Bribing City Council Members.”

    Sherman Roberts, who led the City Wide Community Development Corporation, was indicted four years ago for a bribery scheme involving former Mayor Pro Tem Dwaine Caraway and former City Council Member Carolyn Davis for their support of loans and low-income housing tax credits for his apartment projects.

    He now faces up to five years in prison and is expected to be sentenced in March.

    Roberts paid Davis several thousand dollars in cash, and promised future payments after her council tenure ended, in return for Davis’ support of his projects — Serenity Place, Runyon Springs, and Patriot’s Crossing — according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Texas.

    Roberts was a Democratic Party donor, but in fairly piddling amounts for a real estate developer…

  • Middle School Principal Arrested for Possession of Child Pornography…Chad Dwight Barrett, a 56-year-old principal at Hardin Junior High School in Liberty, was arrested on November 14 following a police investigation that found he sent a student an inappropriate video.”
  • “Incoming Lawmaker Files Legislation to Allow Death Penalty for Sex Crimes Against Children.” Would need to see the details, but clearly scumbags raping small children deserve to die…
  • Repeat criminal told sheriff it would take “his tank and his helicopter” to get him out of his house, but in the end all it took was a needle.
  • Southern Poverty Law Center tries to dox Not The Bee staffers over #WrongThink.
  • Advanced Auto Parts closes all of it’s California stores. Thanks, Gavin Newsom.
  • Carmakers stopped making affordable cars in order to underwrite their move into electric cars. Result: They can’t sell cars and their overflow lots are full.
  • The DOJ wants Google to sell off Chrome. Well, that would be a start in addressing their monopoly position in Internet searches, but would hardly be sufficient. They should also have to spin off YouTube. And because consumers were directly harmed by their monopoly, they should be required to add 2GB of storage a year for every Gmail user for 20 years, he said self-interestedly. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • The time of the turning: “Sold-out NYC crowd ERUPTS, chants USA as President Trump attends UFC 309 with Elon Musk, RFK Jr, Speaker Johnson.”
  • Austin governance at its usualist: “CapMetro puts dozens of electric buses in storage amid manufacturer’s financial collapse. (Previously.) (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Shocking news from the world of science: Weed isn’t good for you. “According to their findings, exposure to cannabis was associated with a range of cancers – breast, pancreatic, liver, thyroid, testicular and lymphoma – that also develop quickly and are more aggressive.”
  • Sweden’s Gender Equality Minister Paulina Brandberg is deeply afraid of…bananas.
  • Service for a hypercar costs more than the purchase price of a non-hyper car.
  • Thomas E. Kurtz, creator of BASIC, RIP. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Enjoy the Honest Trailer for Megalopolis, with bonus Teen Girl Squad reference.
  • Interesting video on attempts to replicate flickering firelight using electric bulbs. (This is what I currently use for the Halloween season, and it’s adequate for my needs.)
  • The TDS doctor is in.
  • “Trump Worried Everyone Will Quit Before He Can Tell Them ‘You’re Fired.'”
  • “Fattest, Sickest Country On Earth Concerned New Health Secretary Might Do Something Different.”
  • “After Illegal Immigrant Found Guilty Of Murder, Dems Sentence Him To Flying Coach.”
  • “Sunny Hostin Forced To Read Legal Notice Acknowledging Nothing Said On ‘The View’ In Its Entire History Has Ever Been Remotely True.”
  • “Before DOGE Cuts Funding, NIH Working Feverishly To Complete Study On The Effects Of Giving Meth To Jetpack-Wearing Hamsters.”
  • That’s a happy puppy.

  • Will DEI Die?

    Wednesday, November 20th, 2024

    With Trump’s victory and the belated realization that wokeness has pushed the normies Too Far, there’s talk that the poison of social justice will finally die a well deserved death in the name of improving Democratic Party election chances.

    I remain skeptical.

    With the woke retreating to Bluesky in order to further isolate themselves from #WrongThink and all those hateful, hateful facts, it seems like the woke will be clinging more bitterly to their anti-rational, low calorie religion substitute than ever before.

    Still, there are some signs of progress here and there, so let’s cover a few instances of pushback against wokeness.

  • Trump II will have a chance to purge wokeness from the federal bureaucracy, but it’s going to be a long, hard struggle.

    As president elect, Donald Trump has already begun discussing his plans to weed out “Marxist diversity, equity, and inclusion bureaucrats” from the nation’s universities and to take aim at schools that continue to discriminate by race “under the guise of equity.”

    But dismantling the federal government’s massive DEI bureaucracy, which has ballooned under the direction of President Joe Biden, and rooting out illiberal and unconstitutional racial preferences the Left has deeply embedded into the government and into law will be a yearslong effort, conservative civil-rights lawyers and activists told National Review.

    “This is not a short-term project,” said Dan Morenoff, executive director of the American Civil Rights Project, which specializes in fighting identity-based discrimination.

    Undoing the Biden administration’s “Equity Agenda” will take not only executive orders from Trump, but also congressional action, efforts by Trump-appointed agency heads, notice-and-comment rulemaking, and likely continued lawsuits from civil-rights groups.

    “The president has some real power to get this ball rolling and to dictate where the ball is going, but there are things that are going to take some additional steps,” Morenoff said.

    Taking office in the wake of George Floyd’s killing in Minneapolis and the racial-justice riots that engulfed many American cities, Biden — who owed his presidency to support from the black community — made so-called equity an immediate priority.

    On his first day in office, Biden signed Executive Order 13985, or Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government, in part to combat the “systemic racism” he claimed still plagues the nation’s institutions. But even as his administration lost repeatedly in the courts and voters soured on the concept, Biden doubled down with additional orders and a whole-of-government approach to DEI, preferences for select minority groups, and identity politics.

    Biden commanded the heads of federal departments and agencies to establish Equity Teams, which were directed to submit annual Equity Action plans to the White House.

    A report last month from Do No Harm, a medical watchdog, identified over 500 active or planned DEI actions by federal agencies. A new report from Open the Books, a government transparency group, found that the Department of Health and Human Services alone has about 300 staffers dedicated to diversity at an annual cost of $38.7 million.

    Under Biden, aid to small businesses and farmers, contracts, scholarships for students, homeless services, and community-development funds for local governments were all provided with an eye on benefiting certain, often arbitrarily defined, minority groups.

    The Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty (WILL), a conservative law firm that has successfully fought the Biden administration’s discriminatory programs in court, has counted more than 60 programs written into the U.S. Code that continue to provide grants, rebates, set-asides, preferences, waivers, price caps, and discounts based on racial preferences.

    Dan Lennington, a WILL lawyer, said Biden’s plan was to “re-orient the entire federal bureaucracy towards eliminating all racial disparities. And what that meant was that in every area — assistance to farmers, to small businesses, in health care, all facets of American life — Biden directed the federal bureaucracy to treat racial groups differently, to give a benefit to some and not a benefit to others.”

    In addition to signing executive orders, Biden was “tremendously successful” at signing racial preferences into law through the American Rescue Plan Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act, Lennington said. Some of those set-asides have been blocked by the courts, including a loan-forgiveness program for black farmers, but many others remain.

    All Biden’s social justice executive orders need to be cancelled and replaced by Trump, and all statutory instances need to be repealed.

  • William Jacobson and Kemberlee Kaye think that DEI is on life support and Trump can pull the plug.

    With President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, radical and discriminatory Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs could be — finally — on the way out.

    DEI has captured almost every level of education and government.

    Our CriticalRace.org project has documented how deeply DEI permeates higher education, medical schools and even elite private boarding schools.

    The Biden-Harris team itself was birthed by DEI, after then-candidate Joe Biden came under intense pressure to pick a “woman of color” as his running mate.

    His choice, Kamala Harris, fully embraced DEI in her 2024 campaign, even creating Zoom calls for different racial, ethnic and sex-based interest groups: “White Women for Harris,” “white dudes,” “black women” and so on.

    Turns out, voters didn’t buy Harris or the DEI she was selling

    Trump’s win, driven by a broad multi-racial, multi-ethnic, multi-religious coalition, puts DEI on life support.

    It’s time to pull the plug and let DEI die.

    In a July 2023 video posted as part of his Agenda 47 policy series, Trump focused heavily on his promise “to fire the radical Left accreditors that have allowed our colleges to become dominated by Marxist Maniacs and lunatics.”

    Elon Musk, Trump’s new government-efficiency adviser, re-circulated the video this week, indicating its importance in the president-elect’s agenda.

    Focusing on accreditors will make a real difference long-term.

    The US Department of Education has oversight authority over higher education accreditation agencies — and groups like the American Bar Association, for example, use legislative-appointed near-monopoly status as a means of driving DEI into universities and graduate schools.

    Trump has also promised that his Department of Justice will “pursue federal civil rights cases against schools that continue to engage in racial discrimination,” defying the Supreme Court’s landmark 2023 decision outlawing affirmative action in admissions

    We are all for that, but to ramp up the pressure Trump should also empower private parties to pursue those actions.

    Our Equal Protection Project has filed more than 40 civil rights complaints with the Department of Education, leading half of the schools involved to change or drop discriminatory criteria after adverse publicity and public shaming.

    But don’t leave it to slow-acting government agencies alone to do this work: Trump can also work with Congress to empower groups like ours, giving us standing to sue in court in our own name under civil rights laws and agency regulations.

    Individual victims of DEI often fear retribution and will not sue in their own name, so their grievances go unanswered.

    If advocacy groups have standing in court, we can pursue their cases while protecting victims’ safety.

    All of the above are systemic changes that will have a lasting impact.

    But the quickest fix should be Trump’s highest priority: Cutting off the supply of money that feeds the DEI industrial complex on campuses and elsewhere.

    People are entitled to their viewpoints, but they are not entitled to federal money to promote discriminatory conduct.

    The federal government must eliminate funding for any program, anywhere in the federal government, that includes race- or ethnicity-based eligibility or preferences — including the use of DEI statements for admission, hiring or promotion.

    Indeed, it’s also time to cut federal funding completely for any institution, public or private, educational or otherwise, that uses such discriminatory DEI criteria.

    This is all good advice, but it’s easier said than done. If you’re going to get that legislation passed, it has to be part of Trump’s first budget where it cane be passed through reconciliation, because wokeness is still the Democratic Party’s religion, and they will filibuster any attempt to purge the bureaucracy. You’ll probably need to at least amend the Pendleton Act as part of the budget process to specify that Administration’s power to lay off employees, and the senate needs to have the starch to let Trump kill off vast swathes of government agencies. No phase outs, no “oh, look at the out-year savings” shenanigans. Hundreds of departments and agencies need to be eliminated, not pruned. Zeros don’t grow back.

  • One of the first purge targets: the military.

    As we recently reported, President-elect Trump pledged to set up a Task Force to look at the infiltration of DEI into the U.S. military…You remember Matt Lohmeier. He is the former Space Force Lieutenant Colonel squadron commander who was fired, forced to resign without a pension just before his retirement date and subjected to an Inspector General investigation within the Pentagon after publishing his bestselling book, Irresistible Revolution: Marxism’s Goal of Conquest & the Unmaking of the American Military, which tore the lid off the military’s obsession with racist and radical “woke” ideologies.

    Matt participated in a seminar Legal Insurrection held in 2022 about DEI seeping its way into the curriculum at the service academies, Saving the Military Service Academies from Wokeness, and I attended an event Matt spoke at in Arizona in the summer of 2023: Matthew Lohmeier – a Tour de Force Supporting our Military Members. Matthew Lohmeier during his presentation:

    And, as we reported, President-elect Trump has pledged to appoint Matt to the Task Force charged with dismantling DEI in the U.S. military. [And] on Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that President-elect Trump is indeed considering cleaning house at the Pentagon:

    Trump Draft Executive Order Would Create Board to Purge Generals:

    The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership.

    If Donald Trump approves the order, it could fast-track the removal of generals and admirals found to be “lacking in requisite leadership qualities,” according to a draft of the order reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. But it could also create a chilling effect on top military officers, given the president-elect’s past vow to fire “woke generals,” referring to officers seen as promoting diversity in the ranks at the expense of military readiness.

    Note how the writer tries to cast this as a negative through the use of the phrase “chilling effect,” but what the writer fails to emphasize is that the current leadership in the Pentagon is all about wokeness and identity politics over merit, to the detriment of the national defense, as we have repeatedly reported:

    • New Documents Detail Air Force’s Plan to Cut Number of White Male Officers
    • Space Force Personnel Chief Walks Back General’s LGBTQ+ Personnel Assignment Policy
    • Air Force Colonel, Selected for Promotion to Brigadier General, Pushes DEI, CRT, and Racist Dogma
    • Next Space Force Commander Grilled Over Firing of Space Force Lieutenant Colonel Matthew Lohmeier
    • Joint Chiefs Chairman Nominee Soft Pedals His Prior Racist Policies in Confirmation Hearing
    • Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley’s Replacement Even More Woke, If That is Possible

    The writer also fails to mention that when Barack Obama took over, he purged 197 Generals and Admirals from the ranks, no doubt to re-make the U.S. military in his image: Obama’s Military Coup Purges 197 Officers In Five Years.

    In any case, given the current crop of senior military officers and their dedication to all things DEI, cleaning house is definitely in order to make sure the U.S. military returns to a focus on engaging with and killing the enemy, not being a laboratory for the latest left-wing social experiments.

    Our military needs real warriors, not social justice warriors.

  • Closer to home, the Texas A&M has approved removal of 52 programs, including an LGBTQ studies minor.

    The Texas A&M University (TAMU) System’s Board of Regents unanimously voted to remove 52 “low-producing” academic programs on November 7, including its controversial “LGBTQ Studies” undergraduate minor, after failing to pass certain threshold requirements recently established by the provost.

    The board proposed a resolution on October 29 to eliminate 14 minors and 38 certificate programs found to be “low-producing” after they “reviewed minors and certificate programs to ensure adequate student interest and demand and to eliminate inefficient and low-producing programs,” according to new course thresholds designed by the Office of the Provost.

    Per the new requirements proposed by Texas A&M University Provost Alan Sams, in order to maintain an active status as an A&M minor, the program must have graduated “a minimum of 10 students” within the past two school years as well as have at least five students plus five graduates enrolled in the current school year — thresholds the LGBTQ Studies and 13 other A&M minors allegedly fail to meet.

    The board directed university President Mark Welsh III to “take actions necessary” for the elimination of such programs, including minors such as LGBTQ Studies, Global Art Design, and Asian Studies, and certificates including Regulatory Science in Food Systems, Cultural Competency, and Landscape Management.

  • Now all we need is follow-through, making sure those previously working to implement woke policies are handed their walking papers.

    Pink slip by pink slip, progress is made…

    1,000 Days Of War

    Tuesday, November 19th, 2024

    Putin evidently expected his “special military operation” (i.e., his illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine) to be over in three days. In a grim milestone and testament to wide-ranging Russian incompetence and the superiority of NATO weapons and Ukrainian ingenuity, that conflict just hit the 1,000 day mark.

    Ukraine marked 1,000 days of war with Russia on Tuesday since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his “special military operation” on Feb. 22, 2022, and initiated the largest conflict Europe has seen since World War II.

    It isn’t only the scale of the fight that has resembled the infamous war that ended more than 75 years prior to Putin’s invasion. Parents loaded their children onto trains in the early days of the war, veins of trenches have scarred eastern Ukraine, and cities and towns have been completely decimated by air, land and sea-based bombardments.

    But the war has done more than remind Western leaders of the global repercussions that come when major nations enter into mass conflict. A new type of warfare emerged out of the fight in Ukraine and the reliance on cheaply made drones to target cities, troop locations and military equipment that cost millions, cemented a new era in combat strategy.

    The war has been a war crime for Russia, a bloody tragedy for Ukraine, and a resounding success for NATO, as Russia has used up the majority of the weapons and equipment it inherited from the Soviet Union. Russia has been grinding away for the last two of those years for what have essentially been infinitesimal gains at high cost.

    Not to mention the damage to the Russian economy. Interest rates are at 21%, the ruble is worth a penny, commodity prices are soaring, and corporate bankruptcies.

    Some think Trump is going to bail out Putin, but Trump sees everything from a negotiating/persuasion/bargaining perspective (along with tit-for-tat game theory), and Trump’s strategy is to threaten what his opposite number holds most dear before dangling a carrot.

    I predict that any Trump-led negotiations will be…interesting.

    Team Personal Loyalty

    Thursday, November 14th, 2024

    In his Joe Rogan interview, President Trump said that his biggest mistake from his first term came from appointing “disloyal” people to important positions based on advice from career Republican politicians. So naturally this time around he’s picking people based in large measure on personal loyalty to him. The result is a much better cabinet than his first, but not a perfect one. I’ll go through the top picks with quick reaction on each.

  • Secretary of State: Marco Rubio. Meh. Marco has always struck me as an intellectual lightweight. He will doubtless be a much better Secretary of State than Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first choice, as well as all Democratic secretaries of state back to at least Cyrus Vance (if not further), but in terms of actual ability I’m not sure he’s better than Trump’s second Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. I would prefer someone like Victor Davis Hanson. Or even (dare I say it?) Rick Perry. This also starts the run of “Sure is a lot of people from Florida on this list.”
  • Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth. “Before joining Fox in 2014, Hegseth served as an Army National Guard captain in Afghanistan and Iraq and earned the Bronze Star medal for his service in the latter.” I don’t watch Fox (or network or cable news in general), so I wasn’t previously aware of him, but he wants to completely purge wokeness and DEI, so I’m firmly on Team Hegseth now.

  • Attorney General: Florida congressman Matt Gaetz. Boy, this one really has the left freaking out. As well it should. While I’m confident Gaetz has the steel to launch investigations of the Russian collusion hoax, the Trump assassination attempts, the lawfare waged against him, censorship efforts, January 6, etc., I worry that he hasn’t run a state attorney generals office, and thus won’t know how best to bring “resistance” staffers to heel. I suspect a seasoned Republican state attorney general like Ken Paxton might have been a better choice, but Texas conservatives won’t complain about getting to keep Paxton in his current job.
  • Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security: South Dakota governor Kristi Noem. Meh. I liked Noem back when she kept her state open during the Flu Manchu panic, but then she went off tranny pandering by vetoing a bill banning men from women’s sports she had promised to sign. She later made amends, but the initial pander of caving to radical social justice pressure makes me worry that she doesn’t have the necessary gumption for such an important job.
  • Department Of Government Efficiency: Elon Musk And Vivek Ramaswamy. Putting aside why this isn’t simply the Office of Management and Budget (maybe to staff a new department from the ground up without “resisters”), this one Trump hit out of the park. Both Musk and Ramaswamy are going to bring outsider energy from two guys who simply don’t care what the MSM and the DC chattering classes have to say about them. Ramaswamy is the ideological firebrand that won’t be diverted from the task, and Musk is the radical innovator who’s not afraid to to make rapid, radical changes. Every Republican President since Reagan has said they’re for a balanced budget, yet somehow the goal has eluded every single one of them. Trump did not pursue a budget cutting agenda in his first term, but having been targeted by multiple tentacles of the deep state leviathan, I’m pretty sure he’ll come in with a newfound zeal for chopping the federal government down to size. And Musk has a talent for both management and radical disruption, which the federal government badly needs.
  • Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard. I’m skeptical this one works out. Tulsi is clearly sharp, and after this election she clearly needs some role in the Trump 2: The Venging administration. And she drive feminists crazy simply by standing there and looking pretty. But directing the national intelligence apparatus, especially one that will be institutionally hostile to reform from the git go, will take a very special, and very tough, director to fill that role, and I’m not sure Gabbard has the intestinal fortitude for the sort of brutal inter-agency knife-fighting necessary to defeat the Deep State. Very few men do, and even fewer women, and having served in the military isn’t sufficient to assure that. For a woman to succeed in this role, she’s going to need to fall somewhere on the Margaret Thatcher to Nancy Pelosi Iron Lady to Stone Cold Bitch spectrum, and I’m skeptical Tulsi meets that threshold. Maybe I’m wrong and she’ll suprise us all.
  • Robert K. Kennedy, Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. No. Like Tulsi, you have to give him some role, and he probably has some good points to make about over-medication, junk food additives, and how the pharmaceutical industry has misled the public (especially over Flu Manchu vaccines and side effects) and commits regulatory capture of the people who should be overseeing it, but he has too many fringe, scientifically supported ideas, and he seems to support ObamaCare. There’s still a chance this selection works out, assuming the Assistant Director is someone who can keep Kennedy’s worst impulses in check, and having him as the designated bad cop may force the medial industry get its shit together (and give up its push to mutilate children for funny, profit and virtue signaling brownie points entirely). Then there’s this via Instapundit:

    But this could still blow up in Trump’s face. Rand Paul would have been a much better pick here, assuming he could be persuaded to leave the senate.

  • Border Czar: Former ICE director Tom Homan. Yeah, he’s got the starch.

    Let a thousand ten million deportations bloom.

  • So I find it a pretty mixed bag.

    Athena Thorne notes that all those selected were unfairly targeted by the very agencies they’re being tasked to oversee, and that probably does provide powerful motivation, as well as insight on the types of abuse that need to be rooted out. I’m just not sure that’s sufficient…