Posts Tagged ‘John Hickenlooper’

The Twitter Primary Revisited for April 2019

Sunday, April 28th, 2019

A month ago I did a post on the number of Twitter followers among Democratic presidential candidates. A lot of new candidates have jumped into the race since then, so let’s look at how the Twitter Primary stacks up today:

The following are all the declared Presidential candidates ranked in order of most to least Twitter followers:

  1. Bernie Sanders: 9.25 million (up 90,000)
  2. Cory Booker: 4.25 million (up 30,000)
  3. Joe Biden: 3.54 million (up 40,000)
  4. Marianne Williamson: 2.61 million (unchanged)
  5. Kamala Harris: 2.6 million (up 110,000)
  6. Elizabeth Warren: 2.44 million (up 130,000)
  7. Beto O’Rourke: 1.42 million (up 50,000)
  8. Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.39 million (up 40,000)
  9. Pete Buttigieg: 982,000 (up 494,000)
  10. Amy Klobuchar: 683,000 (up 23,000)
  11. Tulsi Gabbard: 341,000 (up 29,000)
  12. Andrew Yang: 257,000 (up 62,000)
  13. Julian Castro: 209,000 (up 15,000)
  14. John Hickenlooper: 139,000 (up 4,000)
  15. Seth Moulton: 138,000 (new)
  16. Eric Swalwell: 77,600 (new)
  17. Jay Inslee: 42,000 (up 6,300)
  18. John Delaney: 19,800 (up 1,700)
  19. Tim Ryan: 18,900 (new)
  20. Wayne Messam: 6,350 (new)

For reference, President Donald Trump’s personal account has 59.9 million followers (up 600,000). (The official presidential @POTUS account has 25.7 million, which I’m sure includes a great deal of overlap.)

A few notes:

  • Twitter does rounding, and counts change all the time, so the numbers might be slightly different when you look at them.
  • Buttigieg is the biggest riser in both absolute and percentage terms, doubling his followers and leapfrogging Klobucher, but he’s still behind O’Rourke. He should crack one million this week.
  • Save Buttigieg, no one below one million followers is on track to have one million followers by the Iowa caucuses.
  • Warren is the second biggest riser in April, up 130,000, which doesn’t jib with the narrative that her campaign has been underwhelming and policy-heavy.
  • Williamson does not seem to be gaining followers, and her vast Twitter readership doesn’t seem to be showing up in polls.
  • Harris also did well, and should soon pass Williamson, but she’s not on track to pass Biden before Iowa.
  • Thus far Biden hasn’t gotten much of a bump from formally entering the race.
  • Booker’s Twitter strength is not showing up in polling.
  • Castro, Hickenlooper, Moulton, Swalwell, Inslee, Delaney, Ryan and Messam are all below Yang, and none seem to be on a trajectory to catch him.
  • Of course, it’s possible that one of the longshots could catch fire, and race up the charts. Buttigieg started as a longshot and is now right in the thick of it. Compared to expectations, Yang is doing very well, but so far not well enough to be an actual contender.

    And watch tomorrow for the regular Clown Car update.

    Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for April 15, 2019

    Monday, April 15th, 2019

    More Q1 numbers are trickling out. Harris, Sanders and O’Rourke all did well, Gillibrand and Castro did poorly. Insert your own Biden as Hamlet sentence here.

    Fundraising

    More Q1 fundraising numbers, continued from last week, with new additions announced

    1. Bernie Sanders: $18.2 million from 525,000 donors
    2. Kamala Harris: $12 million from 138,000 donors
    3. Beto O’Rourke: $9.4 million from 218,000 contributions (number of donors not specified)
    4. Pete Buttigieg: $7 million from 158,550 donors
    5. Elizabeth Warren: $6 million from 135,000 individuals
    6. Amy Klobuchar: $5.2 million (number of donors not specified)
    7. Cory Booker: $5 million (number of donors not specified)
    8. Kirsten Gillibrand: $3 million
    9. Andrew Yang: $1.7 million from 80,000 donors
    10. Julian Castro: $1.1 million

    For the sake of comparison, incumbent president Donald Trump pulled in pulled in $30 million, and has $40 million in hand.

    Polls etc.

    Emerson: Sanders 29, Biden 24%, Buttigieg 9%, Harris and O’Rourke at 8%. I think that’s the first poll that had Sanders over Biden, or Buttigieg over Harris and O’Rourke.

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Decision Desk has helpfully compiled a stream of 2020 Presidential candidate tweets.

    Pundits

    Washington Post‘s The Fix rates the candidates in order of likeliness to be a nominee. Any list that ranks Warren third and Biden sixth can’t be taken seriously.

    Heh: “Scientists Recommend Reducing The Number Of Democratic Presidential Candidates To Help Fight Climate Change.” “Scientists recommend the current Democratic field be reduced to less than half the current number or we could see an increase in hurricanes, droughts, kaiju, and ‘other climate change things.'”

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Maybe? Krystal Ball (yes, her real name) make the case for Abrams. “You can just hear the narrator intoning: “With hard work and perseverance, anyone can succeed. America is the land of opportunity.’ But, Abrams doesn’t seem to buy that narrative. For one thing, in spite of all of her success in the grand American meritocracy, Abrams still found herself filing for governor at a time when she owed $170,000 in consumer and student loan debt and $50,000 in taxes.” Wait, you’re making the case for Abrams? As for running statewide:

  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out. But see Friday’s LinkSwarm for more information on this prince among men and his multiple felony indictments.
  • Addition: Actor Alec Baldwin: Maybe? No news from Baldwin himself since floating last week’s Twitter balloon, but this piece suggests Democrats should run a celebrity…just not Alec Baldwin.

    In one of the Twitter rants he is always getting up to, Alec Baldwin claimed the other day that if he ran for president in 2020, he could beat President Trump. It would be “easy,” he said. “So easy. So easy.”

    I’m not so sure he’s right about this. No one over the age of 35 watches Saturday Night Live anymore, certainly not outside our major cities. Normal people don’t know who is being parodied in your 37th different sketch about some minor White House official, which makes laughing along kind of difficult. What else do Americans associate Baldwin with these days, apart from 30 Rock and that one funny monologue in Glengarry Glen Ross? His stint narrating Thomas and Friends? The Hunt for Red October? I just don’t think he’s beloved enough.

    Wait, people under the age of 35 watch Saturday Night Live? I’ll need to see documented evidence of that…

  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning toward a run. Despite his cancer diagnosis, he was visiting Iowa, which suggests he’s not easily deterred.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. He’s evidently planning to run as Obama’s pale third term. I’m not sure that’s the red tofu Democratic activists are longing to hear, but it may not matter. Biden also has an advantage in having every old Democratic office holder at his beck and call. Here’s a Vanity Fair piece on how the #MeToo creeper stuff is going to hurt him; it’s unconvincing, and it’s the same argument liberals made about the Billy Bush tape sinking Trump. He’s also delivering Fritz Hollings’ eulogy.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Maybe. Nothing since last week’s “he might run after all” blip.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. He had a kickoff campaign event in Newark, where he did the usual “Republicans are evil racists who will kill you” scaremongering. Whistling past the graveyard: “Cory Booker Hasn’t Taken Off Yet, but His Campaign Doesn’t Mind.”
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Out.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning Toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. Now that date is not so far away…
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. He did the “I was already running but now I’m officially officially running” thing. A report on his speech makes it sounds like all the usual Democratic talking points. “Buttigieg criticized what he called the more conservative connotation of the word “freedom,” one that he said refers simply to freedom from the government. He instead talked about government having a role in promoting other freedoms: from racism, gender inequality, unfair working conditions, financial exploitation, a lack of affordable health care.” Big Brother needs to get bigger! Kurt Schlichter wants us to remember how annoying Buttigieg is. Hmmm: “Austin Mayor Steve Adler backing Buttigieg two weeks after welcoming Beto at hometown rally.” Those liberal college town mayors have to stick together…
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. Castro only raised $1.1 million in Q1. Even by the standard of a guy that’s not setting the campaign trail on fire that’s piss-poor. Gets a Vox profile.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Out. But for some inexplicable reason she and her husband are out on a speaking tour. Of course, it could be the very explicable reason of “money.”
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. “New York City mayor tests chilly waters for presidential run.” “Chilly” as in “Hydrogen freezes.”
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. He campaigned in Pennsylvania. “At a Tuesday night event hosted by Penn Democrats, Delaney billed himself as a different type of Democrat, offering a centrist vision for the nation.” The picture shows a crowd of what looks to be about 25 people, despite a plate of free sandwiches in the room…
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. She hit the goal of 65,000 donors to put her on the debate stage, but no word yet of how much money she actually raised. Also, Hawaii Democratic State Senator Kai Kahele says he’s raised $250,000 to primary Gabbard for her U.S. congressional seat.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. She raised $3 million in Q1, which is piss poor by the standards of a sitting new York senator. She should have been able to shake down that much from Wall Street the day she announced. her staff is blaming her stand on Al Franken. Heh: “White House National Security Adviser John Bolton could not stop laughing when played a clip of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D., N.Y.) discussing her opposition to “tactile” nuclear weapons on the campaign trail.”
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably not. Seeing no sign he’s running for President in 2020. But this is interesting: “Former Gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum built up some serious hype when he launched a voter drive. That work will be done with his Forward Florida political committee, which he now chairs. But it appears Gillum also formed a corporation with a similar name and function. Division of Corporations records show on April 5, paperwork was filed for the Forward Florida Action not-for-profit corporation.”
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. She released 15 years of tax returns, which showed she and her lawyer husband made nearly $2 million in 2018. Must be nice. She’s leading the Hollywood fundraising race (just like Alan Cranston did in 1984), which donations from Shonda Rhimes, Elizabeth Banks, Quincy Jones, and J.J. Abrams, who is reportedly considering buffing up her campaign with more lens flare. She’s also the candidate of big tech:

    the national obsession with ethnicity and novelty obscures the more important reality: Harris is also the favored candidate of the tech and media oligarchy now almost uniformly aligned with the Democratic Party. She has been a hit in all the important places—the Hamptons, Hollywood, and Silicon Valley—that financed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.

    Unlike Warren and Sanders, or Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar, Harris has not called for curbs on, let alone for breaking up, the tech giants. As California’s attorney general, she did little to prevent the agglomeration of economic power that has increasingly turned California into a semi-feudal state dominated by a handful of large tech firms. These corporate behemoths now occupy 20 percent of Silicon Valley’s office space, and they have undermined the start-up culture that once drove the area’s growth.

    Snip.

    By the time Harris ran for the Senate, she could count on massive support from Bay Area law firms, real-estate developers, and Hollywood. More important, she appealed, early on, to tech mavens such as Facebook’s Sheryl Sandberg and Sean Parker, Marc Benioff of Salesforce, Yahoo’s Marissa Mayer, venture capitalist John Doerr, Steve Jobs’s widow Laurene Powell, and various executives at tech firms such as Airbnb, Google, and Nest, who have collectively poured money into her campaigns. Their investment was not ill-considered. Harris seems a sure bet for the tech leaders. Her husband, attorney Doug Emhoff, was a managing partner with Venable Partners, whose clients include Microsoft, Apple, Verizon, and trade associations opposing strict Internet regulations.

    She’s also building out her campaign in South Carolina, probably a smart move. With so many candidates in the race and proportional delegate allocation, I don’t think Iowa and new Hampshire are going to winnow the field nearly as much in the past, which is going to make South Carolina’s February 29th primary more important than in year’s past. Speaking of which: “Bakari Sellers, a CNN commentator and former South Carolina state representative, endorsed Sen. Kamala Harris for president, her campaign announced Monday.” Wait, Harris is a gun owner? That will make for some interesting Harris-Swalwell deabtes. (Hat tip: CarpeDonktum.)

  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Twitter. Facebook. “John Hickenlooper is misrepresenting his record on the death penalty.” He visited some Iowa brewpubs.
  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder: Out.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. He had a CNN town hall. At least one review was not kind: “He really did sound like he has just half a brain, as he himself said earlier this week. CNN didn’t do Inslee any favors by airing this interview.” He said his state would love to get all those illegal aliens. One wonders if his constituents feel the same.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. She raised $5.2 million in Q1. She also released her most recent tax return, showing a modest (by u.S. senatorial standards) $338,483 in income. She’s in Iowa pimping for ethanol. She visited Boulder.
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? Why can’t Terry meme?

  • Oregon senator Jeff Merkley: Out. Filing for reelection to the senate instead.
  • Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Wayne Messam presidential campaign staffs up with women and alumni from Gillum and Obama.” “His staff currently numbers about 20, mostly women. Of the eight senior staffers, five are women.”
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? “Seth Moulton is running social media ads asking if he should run for higher office.” Expect him to throw his hat into the ring under his new name of Candidate McCandidateFace.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: In. Twitter. Facebook. “The big idea? Beto doesn’t have one.” “Beto O’Rourke’s most distinctive policy position? To be determined. There’s no signature issue yet, no single policy proposal sparking his campaign. Convening crowds — and listening to them — is the central thrust of his early presidential bid.” The roots of Beto’s money. Hint: It’s not record sales. “O’Rourke co-owns a shopping mall worth seven figures; He received his half as a gift from his mother.”
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Representative Tim Ryan: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Why is Tim Ryan running for president, anyway?” “There are not a lot of discernible reasons why Tim is doing this.” But rapper Cardi B says she’s endorsing both Sanders and Ryan, based on seeing Ryan promising free health care on TV. So he’s got that going for him…
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Evidently some people still hold a grudge from 2016:

    Sen. Bernie Sanders has accused a leading liberal think tank, founded and run by longtime Hillary Clinton allies, of orchestrating attacks on him and two other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.

    In a letter provided to CNN by his campaign, Sanders addressed the board of the Center for American Progress and CAP Action Fund on Saturday, alleging that its activities are playing a “destructive role” in the “critical mission to defeat Donald Trump.” Sanders cited two posts about him by ThinkProgress, a website run by CAP’s political arm, and past pieces focused on Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker.

    The exchange threatens to shred an already frayed public détente between the wider circles surrounding both Sanders and Clinton, who fought a bitter 2016 presidential primary that still looms large in the minds of many Democrats — if only because they fear a divisive replay in 2020.

    CAP, founded in 2003 by John Podesta, who was former President Bill Clinton’s final chief of staff and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign chairman, and its top officials have often been accused by progressives loyal to Sanders of seeking to undermine his political agenda — debates that frequently blow up on social media platforms like Twitter.

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Probably Out? Said he wasn’t running, but there’s this: “California billionaire Tom Steyer may be reconsidering his decision last January to remove himself as a possible candidate for the Democratic nomination for president, according to a new report. A citizen in Iowa recently recorded a robocall that tested political messaging related to Steyer, according to a report from Iowa Starting Line.” Still think he’s out, but not this for the record.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: In. Twitter. Facebook. Officially kicked off his campaign in Dublin, California, staying all in on the gun grabbing issue. There’s also a parody website.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. Warren pulled in $6 million in Q1 from 135,000 individuals. “Elizabeth Warren doesn’t like to talk about it, but for years she was a registered Republican.” And here’s the Warren Policy Proposal of the Week: “Ban new fossil fuel production on federal lands.”
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. She got a joint town hall on CNN with Andrew Yang. Williamson’s part is filled with bad ideas: A hardline approach to Israel (undoing President Trump’s Golan heights resolution, for instance) and supporting reparations.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: In. Twitter. Facebook. Yang had some of his own bad ideas, like “monitoring malicious speech.” He also wants to decriminalize heroin and other opiates (along the lines of Portugal), which may be the first genuinely new idea any Democratic Presidential candidate has floated this cycle. Here’s a review of his book. “Once you read his book, it is apparent that Andrew Yang is running for president because he is afraid of normal people.” He’s an idea-a-minute guy, many of them bad, sort of a Democratic version of 2012’s Newt Gingrich. Yang also leads the candidates in Facebook spending.

  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for April 8, 2019

    Monday, April 8th, 2019

    Tim Ryan and Eric Swalwell are In, Biden’s still Hamleting, Bloomberg is suddenly back in the picture, and a certain anti-Trump celebrity is making noises about running.

    Fundraising

    More fundraising numbers are trickling out: “Final fundraising tallies from January through March won’t come out until April 15 when candidates officially file their numbers with the FEC. That didn’t stop several triumphant Democratic contenders from releasing their estimated fundraising tallies early.”

    From Open Secrets and elsewhere:

    1. Bernie Sanders: $18.2 million from 525,000 donors
    2. Kamala Harris: $12 million from 138,000 donors
    3. Beto O’Rourke: $9.4 million from 218,000 contributions (number of donors not specified)
    4. Pete Buttigieg: $7 million from 158,550 donors
    5. Cory Booker: $5 million (number of donors not specified)
    6. Andrew Yang: $1.7 million from 80,000 donors

    This comment had some of the usual types in a tizzy:

    But he’s right. Harris has all sorts of structural advantages (sitting senator from an extremely wealthy state and a media darling), but she’s barely outpacing a guy who was considered an unlikely longshot a month ago.

    Polls

    Morning Consult has it Biden 33, Sanders 25, O’Rourke and Harris tied at 8, and Warren at 7.

    Change Research poll of South Carolina voters has Biden at 32, Sanders at 12, Harris at 10, Booker and O’Rourke at 9, Adams and Buttigieg at 7, and Warren at 6.

    It turns out that the home states of the various candidates are not super-wild about them, as none got majorities in their own states.

    538 Presidential roundup. (You know this gets updated with new info and a new URL every week, right?)

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Maybe?Stacey Abrams torn between running for president, Senate.” She’s even making noises that she could wait until the fall to decide. Uh, not really. If you launch that late I think you start running into ballot access issues.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Addition: Actor Alec Baldwin: Maybe? I wouldn’t necessarily put much stock into it, but the actor and SNL Trump-impersonator asked his Twitter followers if they would vote for him if he ran for President. Two weeks ago I said that the race could be ripe for a disruptive outsider celebrity candidate, and despite his career decline, Baldwin fits that description. And having noted rageholic Baldwin run would certainly shake things up. Though his Twitter account (which he’s blocked me on) seems to have been mostly moribund the last year. And his opponents already have a anti-Baldwin meme song ready to go:

  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Maybe? Bennet announced he has prostate cancer…but is still interested in running for President after surgery. Sounds like the sort of event that causes people to decide not to run for President…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. Biden says he wants to be the last person to announce he’s running for President. So far, so good! But he’s running into more creeper questions, as well as flak for his son’s shady deals in Ukraine. Nine reasons to vote for Joe Biden. 95% sarcasm by weight. And this took Twitter by storm:

  • Update: Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Maybe. Remember how Bloomberg said he was out? Well now people close to him are saying he might still run if Biden doesn’t. Upgrade from Out.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Says he raised more than $5 million in Q1. The National Catholic Reporter wonders why he’s not doing better. “Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey should be one of the leading candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination. He checks so many different boxes that other candidates leave unchecked, it is hard to see why he has not catapulted to the top of the polls, but he hasn’t.”
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Out.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning Toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. New York magazine did a little mini-roundup of who hasn’t announced yet. “There are those who consider Bullock, who’s delaying his decision on a possible race until his legislature adjourns, a quite viable candidate.”
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. Says he like the Green New Deal and nuclear power. Jim Geraghty dissects the Buttigieg moment:

    I see a common thread between the current moment of Buttigieg-mania, and 2018’s Beto-mania. A once-obscure political figure suddenly is the subject of one glossy profile after another, with the general gist of “You’ve never heard of this officeholder, but he’s (or less often, she’s) amazing, and about to shake up politics.” You hear about how the figure is wowing people on the stump, some quote from some audience members selected to represent the “average voter,” declaring that the figure “restores my hope” and “really cares about people like me,” followed by a recitation of their legislative or governing accomplishments. The profile hits all the familiar notes: the humble beginnings, the mischievous hijinks of youth, the happy home life, the vague but positive vision for America’s future. (It’s like this Beto profile, but less exaggerated.)

    And maybe in the back of your mind, you’re thinking . . . wait, if this guy is so terrific, why have I never heard of him until now? I follow the news. I’m reasonably well-informed. If he was the driving force behind such big and consequential accomplishments, why have I not noticed them or heard other people talking about them? The accounts of the audiences left in rapturous awe ought to raise some red flags for us, too. Sure, the figure seems charismatic and likable enough, but the allegedly ordinary voters who show up to the rallies are already predisposed to like him — otherwise, they wouldn’t show up to the rally!

    Almost everybody’s resume looks good — it represents putting your best foot forward. Very few figures who run for office begin by announcing, “I’ve made a lot of mistakes in my life, had a lot of proposals that never worked out, I’ve had my share of ethical lapses, and I have no idea how I would hold up under the pressure of the presidency.”

    Sure, there are under-covered, little-noticed mayors, House members, and even governors and senators who are accomplishing things under the radar of the national media. But when it comes to Democrats, there are some painfully familiar templates: the “here’s the Democrat who’s leading his party to a comeback in the South” and the variation, “Texas Democrats are ready for a comeback.” And when it comes to presidential politics, maybe the easiest way to pick out the candidate who will get the early buzz is to ask which one reminds the national press corps the most of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama — young, charismatic, handsome, talking about better days ahead and unleashing all of America’s untapped potential. We can argue about whether it’s still accurate, but for a long time, the line “Republicans fall in line, Democrats want to fall in love” was a reasonable assessment of each party’s presidential-primary process.

    Buttigieg is that guy right now. But history has examples of young Democrats who ultimately stumbled for one reason or another — John Edwards, Howard Dean, Jerry Brown, Gary Hart, the 1988 edition of Al Gore.

  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. He promised to release 10 years of tax returns and campaigned in California.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. “De Blasio Stubbornly Moves Toward Presidential Race That Could Humiliate New York.”

    His first two recent trips to Iowa have been, in a word, fiascoes (his first, last December, was marked by NYPD protests, and during the second, in February, he was stranded in a blizzard at a Super 8 motel and dined on a gas-station burrito). He hasn’t been listed in most 2020 polls, and his peak performance in any has been a booming one percent.

    It’s hard to discern any path to the White House for Hizzoner.

  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gets a Business Insider profile. The Root talks about his “commitment to black America.”
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Tulsi Gabbard Accuses CNN’s Fareed Zakaria of Goading Donald Trump Into War With Russia.”
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. She too gets a Business Insider profile.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably not. All quiet on the Gillum front.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. She racked up more South Carolina endorsements. “When the Senate took contentious votes this week on a disaster aid package to help California rebuild after wildfires, Sen. Kamala Harris was in Sacramento — courting the support of labor unions for her presidential campaign.”
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Hickenlooper this week addressed the Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network.”
  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder: Out.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Get’s a CNN quick facts profile.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. “Amy Klobuchar’s Hazy ‘Heartland Economics’“: “Amy Klobuchar is counting on “heartland economics” to win Iowa and make her the candidate of the Midwest—though she’s still working through what precisely she means by that, and how it would actually lead her to the Democratic presidential nomination.” She also released 12 years of tax returns.
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? “Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe said Monday that he’s “very close” to a decision on whether he’ll seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2020.” Also says he’ll have the funniest campaign if he runs, which is pretty tough talk given how hilarious both Baldwin’s and de Blasio’s campaigns would be.
  • Oregon senator Jeff Merkley: Out. Filing for reelection to the senate instead.
  • Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam: In. Twitter. Facebook. He’s not even going to get to New Hampshire until May. So far I’m not seeing any Messamentum. But he did put a viral ad with his daughters, and they seem really, really…normal:

  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? Get’s a New Hampshire public radio profile.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: In. Twitter. Facebook. “It’s been Bernie versus Beto all weekend in Iowa.” Heh: “Iowa student asks Beto O’Rourke ‘Are you here to see Beto?'”
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Update. Tim Ryan: In. Twitter. Facebook. He announced last week. Five facts about Ryan, including the tidbit that he’s never run for statewide office, and his district went for Trump in 2016.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Sanders thinks convicted felons should be able to vote from prison. But he says he doesn’t want open borders:

    Maybe he wants to try “Socialism in One Country” first…

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • Update: California Representative Eric Swalwell: In. He announced he’s running on gun control on Colbert. Never mind my well-known opposition to gun control, as an observer I just don’t see that moving the needle in such a crowded field. Just about all of them are gun grabbers.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. Warren is polling in third place… in Massachusetts. She’s also dropped a lot of radical policy proposals down the well, most of which haven’t made a splash, and she hasn’t released any preliminary Q1 fundraising numbers.
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. She gets a Des Moines Register profile. She’s going to do a CNN town hall April 14.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: In. Twitter. Facebook. He raised $1.7 million, so obviously someone cares, even if it’s conservatives trying to jam the Democrats. He got an ABC News profile and was interviewed by Ben Shapiro:

  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for April 1, 2019

    Monday, April 1st, 2019

    What use is April Fools Day when there are so many fools to choose from? That aside, Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam is In, while Biden continues his Hamlet routine. (Given what last week’s Mueller-Avenatti-Smollett smashup was like, I don’t really blame him anyone for not launching their campaign last week.) Eric Swalwell was do disappointed by the Mueller report that he’s going to run for President to ease the pain, sort of like sawing off your own leg to make you forget a toothache. There’s a little Buttigieg boomlet going on. And with the quarter just ended, fundraising totals are starting to trickle out.

    Polls
    A Quinnipiac national poll has it Biden 29, Sanders 19, O’Rourke 12, Harris 8, and Warren and Buttigieg in a distant fifth tied at 4% each. Most interesting tidbit? O’Roruke has double Harris’ support among black people, and ties it among women.

    An Emerson Iowa poll had it Biden 25, Sanders 24, Buttigieg 11, Harris at 10, with Warren, Booker and O’Rourke trailing in single digits.

    A Harvard poll of young voters showed they love them some geezers:

    America’s youngest voters prefer the oldest 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls over those closer to them in age, and millennial women are showing little problem with former Vice President Joe Biden’s personally touchy style that has drawn the scorn of some #MeToo champions, according to a new survey.

    The Harvard Youth Poll found that Sen. Bernie Sanders, 77, and Biden, 76, top the choices of voters aged 18-29.

    Sanders leads Biden 31 percent to 20 percent, said the survey from the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy’s School.

    Notably, one of the youngest Democratic candidates, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, registered just 10 percent. But that makes him the third top choice of the younger voters.

    Everyone else was back in single digits.

    “The one big takeaway from every 2020 Democratic primary poll: The 2020 Democratic primary won’t really start until Joe Biden runs — or doesn’t.”

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Maybe?Stacey Abrams builds massive political network ahead of 2020 decision.” “Stacey Abrams is set to reveal soon whether she’ll run for president or senator or something else. But in recent months, the Democrat has mounted a nationwide, largely below-the-radar effort to expand her donor and political network that will make her an instant force whatever she decides.” She also ruled out preemptively agreeing to be Biden’s VP.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out. Plus it’s gone be hard to run for president from inside a federal prison. (Bonus kick.)
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning Toward In. Says he’s very inclined to run.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. Biden isn’t even in the race yet, and they’re already dropping opposition research from the 1970s on him. Here’s a piece detailing all his deviationist votes from social justice warrior orthodoxy. Nevada Democrat Lucy Flores complains about Biden creeping on her. Biden says it’s hooey. Of course, Flores just happens to be a staunch Sanders supporter. More on Creepy Uncle Joe:

    Joe Biden is a creepy old goat. Everyone knows this. There is much photographic evidence of him crossing the line with women. He’s also a liar and a buffoon. But the Democratic party’s public-relations arm, aka the mainstream media, has never before had any incentive to hold Biden up to scrutiny. Why bother? When he became veep, any attack on Biden risked looking like casting aspersions on the man who made him his number two, and the media could not countenance any naysaying about the judgment of the Precious.

  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Out.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. He had a CNN town hall. Here’s a recording of his AIPAC conference speech.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it. He’s off on a ranch.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Out.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning Toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. He keeps saying he doesn’t want to run for the Senate,
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. There’s a little Buttigieg boomlet going on. He pulled in $7 million in fundraising in Q1. He got a new York Times profile. With him doing well in that Emerson poll, he’s already getting the but he’s a white male!” backlash. And that Washington Post piece tells us how to pronounce his name: “Boot-edge-edge.” Which just doesn’t roll off the tongue the way “Dick Butt” does…
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. He was in Ft. Dodge, Iowa. Back in January, Jim Geraghty noted: “Julián Castro was the candidate of tomorrow, and always will be.” It also included this tidbit:

    In 2012, Rosie Castro caused her son a bit of a headache when she told The New York Times Magazine that the Texans at the Alamo were “a bunch of drunks and crooks and slaveholding imperialists who conquered land that didn’t belong to them…I can truly say that I hate that place and everything it stands for.” It’s not often you see a mayor’s mother trashing the city’s most famous historical site.

  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. He’s even losing the popularity contest to Buttigieg in the city of which he’s mayor.
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. Campaigning in Iowa.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Tulsi Gabbard Says It’s Time to ‘Move Forward’ After Trump-Russia Investigation.” “Now that Mueller has reported that his investigation revealed no such collusion, we all need to put aside our partisan interests and recognize that finding that the president of the United States did not conspire with Russia to interfere with our elections is a good thing for our country.” Yeah, I bet that stance is going to make her super popular among Democratic primary voters…
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. She released her 2018 tax returns. A smart move, assuming anyone pays attention to it…
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably not. “Unless somebody I know who inspires me on a regular basis decides to do something else, he’d be focusing all his energy on getting Florida voters registered and turning the state blue in 2020.” Downgrade from Maybe.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. Harris is popular with her California constituents…but not super-popular, and the state doles out delegates proportionally. Interestingly, left-leaning PolitiFact said that her assertion that President Trump was raiding money from soldier pensions was false. And speaking of Jussie Smollett:

  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Hickenlooper is certainly different.” One way he’s different: He suffers from “face blindness,” the inability to remember someone’s face, a very un-politician-like disease.
  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder: Out.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. He released his tax returns as well.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. She visited Iowa to check out flooding damage. “There are half a dozen Democrats running for president who fill VFW halls or city squares or public parks. Klobuchar is not one of those Democrats. Her audiences are rapt and curious but small. Her Friday night visit to Council Bluffs, which took place in the same venue and time of day as Warren’s first visit to the city, attracted 75 people.” She also unveiled an very expensive infrastructure plan. How expensive?

  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? Here’s another “he’s leaning toward getting in” piece.
  • Oregon senator Jeff Merkley: Out. Filing for reelection to the senate instead.
  • Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam: In. Twitter. Facebook. He announced Saturday.

    In the first speech of his presidential campaign, Miramar Mayor Wayne Messam on Saturday said he’s aiming to “give Americans a second chance at the American Dream.”

    The 44-year-old son of Jamaican immigrants said his top priorities are greatly reducing gun violence and preventing mass shootings, eliminating college loan debt, reversing harmful climate change, and rebuilding ties with America’s allies across the planet.

    “We will meet this challenge,” Messam told the crowd at the Lou Rawls Center for the Performing Arts at Florida Memorial University in Miami Gardens. He used the “Black Panther” movie song “Pray for Me” as his theme music.

    With all of five thousand twitter followers, Messam takes the longest of longshots crown from John Delaney. However, as a black mayor with a compelling personal story, the media will be unable to ignore him as they’ve largely ignored Delany, no matter how much Harris and Booker campaigns might wish they would. And the inevitable Obama comparisons won’t hurt, though I don’t see him having anything near that magnetism. Florida’s primary is March 17, fairly early but after Super Tuesday, and it’s possible that Messam’s favorite son bid could make some noise there, especially if Gillum doesn’t jump into the race.

  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? Yet another guy who says he’ll decide in the next few weeks.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: In. Twitter. Facebook. He kicked off his campaign with a rally in El Paso. “Beto O’Rourke is 2020’s John Edwards.” Especially how he magically shifted from a theoretical centrist who opposed ObamaCare to “a full-throated liberal.” Peter Beinart swoons over O’Rourke’s immigration ideas. “In his bicultural and bilingual hometown of El Paso, while speaking in both English and Spanish, he imagined the United States helping itself by helping Central America.” It’s the usual “my favored candidates policy ideas are extremely persuasive” piece no one will remember a week from now. The El Paso Times puts up, then takes down, a “Beto is a Furry” meme explainer.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Leaning Toward In? He was at a forum in Iowa.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Bernie “three houses” Sanders is not so keen on releasing his taxes. Also promises to magically cut prescription drug prices in half.
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: All But In. He told an audience he was announcing in two weeks. Maybe he can spend his Presidential campaign looking for the real Russian colluders. (Upgrade from Maybe.)
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. She just lost her financing manager. “Her staff is sensitive enough about the “but can she win” concerns that last week it issued a lengthy campaign memo, in the guise of a fund-raising email, detailing her platform and resume while offering a reminder that she is the only candidate who in recent years has defeated a statewide Republican incumbent.” Yeah, in Massachusetts, which for a Democrat is like Kramer beating up 9-year olds in his karate class.
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. Robert Stacey McCain has been out on the trail covering the Williamson campaign.

    Say hello to Marianne Williamson, a best-selling author who has often been called Oprah Winfrey’s “spiritual guru.” Although she isn’t even a single-digit blip in the national polls, Ms. Williamson’s campaign has already been featured on ABC’s Nightline, and her campaign appearances in Iowa and New Hampshire have received respectful coverage in such local media as the Des Moines Register and the Concord Monitor. Her only previous foray into electoral politics was a fourth-place finish in a 16-candidate California congressional race in 2014, but Ms. Williamson seems to have learned a lot in the past five years. Her campaign website is state-of-the-art, her calendar of public appearances is carefully targeted toward the early primary and caucus states, and she has already hired state campaign directors in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. “We’re getting traction,” Williamson campaign spokeswoman Patricia Ewing told me in a brief telephone interview Thursday. “We’re very happy with it.”

    Ms. Ewing said the campaign is “confident” Ms. Williamson will surpass the crucial metric of 65,000 unique donors that the Democratic National Committee has established as the threshold to participate in the first televised debates. She already has more than 25,000 donors, Ms. Ewings said. “It’s not a stress point for us at all. We know we’re going to hit the numbers by the time the DNC wants us to.” Ms. Williamson has spent more than 30 years making public appearances to promote her popular books and, before launching her current campaign, went on a 75-city national tour with an average of 500 people attending each event, Ms. Ewing said. Do the math, and that adds up to nearly 40,000 dedicated supporters. Given how easily an “outsider” candidate like Trump vanquished a field of Republican politicians in the 2016 primaries, it’s not impossible that Ms. Williamson could pull off a similar feat among Democrats in 2020. “We believe that a presidential candidate can come from someone who is not a career politician,” Ms. Ewing said. “Someone who has an understanding of the breadth and width of the country.”

    More from McCain:

    For all the talk about the Religious Right’s role in Republican politics, little attention is paid to the influence among Democrats of the Religious Left, of which Ms. Williamson is a recognized leader. And if the odds against her winning her party’s 2020 presidential nomination are a million-to-one, there are nonetheless serious Democrats who believe she can achieve such a miracle. One of them is Dr. Gloria Bromell Tinubu, state director of the Williamson campaign. An experienced politician who served in the Georgia legislature before returning to her native South Carolina, Dr. Tinubu was twice the Democratic nominee for Congress in the 7th District, getting more than 100,000 votes against Republican Rep. Tom Rice in this deep “red” district. Dr. Tinubu introduced Ms. Williamson at Bethel A.M.E. by saying, “I consider her a sister,” which is about as strong an endorsement as any Democrat needs here.

    Snip.

    If the “Three B’s” (Biden, Bernie, and Beto) are Trump’s “dream” of a 2020 opponent, Ms. Williamson might just be his worst nightmare. Like him, she’s an outsider, a non-politician without the kind of political baggage that sank Hillary Clinton. And she brings to the campaign a spiritual vibe that could connect with swing voters. “Politics should not be a pursuit disconnected from the heart,” her campaign literature proclaims. “Where fear has been harnessed for political purposes, let’s now harness the power of love.” Sure, conservative readers will roll their eyes at that kind of emotional appeal, but what about suburban “soccer moms”? What about the millions of women who’ve bought Ms. Williamson’s books or seen her many TV appearances with Oprah? What about the congregation at Bethel A.M.E. that applauded Ms. Williamson’s call for reparations for slavery?

    All the same pundits who confidently predicted Trump’s defeat would say it is impossible Ms. Williamson could win the Democrats’ 2020 nomination, and that’s the really spooky thing. We are living in a world where impossible things seem to be happening with remarkable frequency, and it’s foolish to say miracles never happen. How odd was it, after all, that Ms. Williamson was speaking Sunday from the pulpit of a black church in South Carolina? Not only is she white, she’s Jewish. (To quote New York Jewish Week: “Should she win the presidency, Williamson, 66, not only would be the first woman president but the first Jewish one.”) She mentioned the Jewish celebration of Purim, which commemorates Esther’s role in saving the Jews of Persia. She didn’t mention the famous question Mordecai asked of Esther: “Who knoweth whether thou art come to the kingdom for such a time as this?” Indeed, who knows? In such a time as this, perhaps Ms. Williamson could be the miracle that saves Democrats from themselves.

  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. He gets a WIRED interview. Lots of talk of AI and robots.
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for March 25, 2019

    Monday, March 25th, 2019

    This week in the clown car update: Two more additions, one possibly serious, the other definitely not. Also, don’t miss yesterday’s post on the Twitter primary.

    Polls and Pundits

    Fox poll has Biden at 31, Sanders at 24, and both beating Trump, with everyone else in single digits and losing to Trump.

    CNN has it Biden 28, Sanders 20, Harris 12, O’Rourke 11, with no one else more than 6.

    James Pindell of the Boston Globe ranks the Democratic presidential field in New Hampshire. TLDR: Sanders, Biden, Warren, Harris, Booker, O’Rourke, Williamson, Gabbard, Buttigieg, Yang. Yes, he has Williamson and Yang ahead of numerous “serious” candidates.

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Maybe? Still considering a run. Also see Biden comma Joe.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out. But he did pen an op-ed stating that Beto O’Rourke can’t win. “It’s not Beto’s fault he’s not a fighter. After all, he’s led a very charmed, privileged life as a white male. He’s faced very little adversity.” Seems like the Creepy Porn Lawyer is calling the kettle white…
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning Toward In. “U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet is taking the final steps toward becoming the second Colorado Democrat in the 2020 race for president, with a possible announcement coming soon, sources familiar with his plan have told The Denver Post.”
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. Trial balloon floated the idea of him announcing for the campaign and naming Stacey Abrams as his running mate right out of the gate. Not sure that would help clinch the nomination with two (or, see below, three) actual black candidates in the race. Lots of pundits are pronouncing this to be a bad idea, but how many are in the tank for Kamala Harris? Jim Geraghty: “Nominating Biden atop the Democratic ticket is like giving the wacky neighbor supporting character on a beloved show his own spinoff.” Could Biden be the Jeb Bush of 2020?

  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Out.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. Booker is being pulled left by the party’s crazy primary base. Booker and Harris top a poll of South Carolina’s Democratic Party county chairs. He also had a fundraiser hosted for him by Bon Jovi. “Cory Booker the Only Dem 2020 Candidate Attending AIPAC Conference.”
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Out.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning Toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. But he has been fundraising for local Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gets a profile from NBC, which notes that he too has met the 65,000 donor threshold to participate in debates.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. He whistled past the graveyard about O’Rourke’s entry into the race.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. “New Yorkers Don’t Seem Too Thrilled About Possible Presidential Candidate Bill de Blasio.” Why should they be different than the rest of the country?
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gets an ABC profile that notes “Delaney has made Iowa his primary focus. He’s traveled to 99 counties and was planning to open six offices in the first state that will have a say in the election. His time in Iowa reportedly earned him early endorsements from three Iowan Democratic Party county chairs.” Probably the only candidate in the field emphasizing bipartisanship.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. Got a New Hampshire public radio interview. She visited Plaistow, New Hampshire, which is right on the border with Massachusetts.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. She had an an official campaign launch where she bashed Trump (way to stand out from the crowd). Gillibrand’s solution to the opioid epidemic is to take pain medication from the people that actually need it.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Maybe? This week Gillum announced…a voter registration drive.
  • Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel: Maybe, but it’s a joke run. He lost to everyone in 2008, coming in eight out of eight and receiving no delegates, then switched to the Libertarian Party, where he came in four out of eight. According to his Twitter account: “I’m not planning to contest any primaries and, if offered the nomination, would decline it.” The 88-year old did make an FEC filing, but I’m only listing him here to mention that I’m not listing him here…
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. She swung through Texas and compared herself to LBJ, which suggests she’s a mean, corrupt political operator who used voting fraud to steal an election. “Black women could help boost Kamala Harris’ presidential aspirations.” Wow, there’s an original thought. But the whispers I hear suggests that Homewrecker Harris is far less popular among black women than you might expect…
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Twitter. Facebook. John Hickenlooper, ladies man. He’s also wondering why no one asks the female candidates whether they would pick a male running mate.
  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder: Out.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. Appeared on The Daily Show. Inslee’s extra security for his presidential run will cost Washington state $4 million. Wait, don’t you actually have to know who someone is before you target him for assassination?
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign. But he did get 4% in that CNN poll.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. US News and World Report (who are evidently still around) cover the “humor” of Klobuchar. Judging from the samples provided, I don’t see her headlining at The Laugh Factory anytime soon…
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? He gets a Washington Post profile. “When he left office in January 2018, McAuliffe appeared to be well positioned for a White House run as a socially liberal, business-friendly Democrat from an important swing state. But 14 months later, it’s unclear if there is room for McAuliffe, 62, in a party that seems to be pulling leftward.”
  • Oregon senator Jeff Merkley: Out. Filing for reelection to the senate instead.
  • Addition Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam: Leaning Toward In. Twitter. Stumbled across him on Wikipedia. He’s filed paperwork with the SEC and is expected to make an announcement March 30. He was also a wide receiver at Florida State and a member of their 1993 National Championship team. Do I consider the 44-year old a serious contender? Right now, no. But as of 2010, Miramar had a population of 122,041, compared to South Bend, Indiana’s 101,168. By what objective criteria is Sound Bend’s white gay mayor Pete Buttigieg a legitimate Presidential contender and Miramar’s black, straight (presumably, since he’s married with three children) mayor isn’t? (Even 538 is keeping track of him, and made the same point about Buttigieg.)
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? Says he’ll decide by next month.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: In. Twitter. Facebook. Two Jim Geraghty pieces: Beto finds that that everything seems a lot harder when you’re not running against Ted Cruz. “All of a sudden Beto O’Rourke, the candidate who was most beloved by the national press in 2018, is getting brutal coverage in 2019.” But then he warns Republicans not to underestimate him and compares his career path to George W. Bush. There are some parallels there, but it’s a big leap from the congressional son of a city councilman to the gubernatorial son of a President. He campaigned in South Carolina. Wait, he’s now saying he’s a gun owner? Did he mention that when he was bragging about his F rating from the NRA last year? Whoa ho here he comes, he’s a dirt eater.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Leaning Toward In? Save the usual Trump bashing, I’m not seeing significant news this week.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. From that Boston Globe piece on New Hampshire:

    As it stands in the New Hampshire primary, there’s Sanders and then everyone else. No one even comes close to the level of support, energy, and commitment that Sanders has enjoyed since he won the New Hampshire primary with 60 percent of the vote in 2016.

    Now here’s the downside of expectations: mathematically, his numbers can go only go down in a field this large. But even with polls putting him at 25 percent to 30 percent support in the state’s primary, that’s enough to win in such a large field.

    Journalist David Sirota spent the last few months attacking all the non-Sanders Democrats in the race. Surprise! Bernie just hired him. Sanders also spoke to large crowds in San Francisco (of course) and San Diego.

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning Toward In. Gonna be a tough week for Russian collusion truther Swalwell…
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. In Politico, Jeff Greenfield ponders her slow start. “She is languishing in fifth place in a spate of polls of Democratic primary voters; Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke are dominating the money race.” Oh, and she wants to eliminate the Electoral College because of course she does.
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. From that Boston Globe piece on New Hampshire:

    Yes, a person most readers will have to Google is already well ahead of sitting senators, Cabinet officials, and former governors in the New Hampshire rankings. Don’t believe me? Just look at the overflow crowds of people who adore her and probably won’t even consider voting for anyone else. It’s clear by these counts that Williamson, Oprah Winfrey’s spiritual adviser, enters the race with her own base of support. Also, it turned a lot of heads when former congressman Paul Hodes agreed to run her campaign in the state.

    She gets an intermittantly interesting Buzzfeed profile that talks about all her celebrity spiritualist boosters (Steve Tyler, Gwyneth Paltro, Cher, Kim Kardashian West) and officiating at one of Elizabeth Taylor’s weddings, while showing her speaking before an audience of six. Robert Stacy McCain needs your donations so he can travel to South Carolina to give the Williamson campaign the coverage it deserves in person. Help make it happen! (And here’s an update.)

  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. He’s in the debates! Yang has lots of ideas, most of them bad. He wants to reformulate GDP: “Robot trucks are going to be great for GDP, but they’re going to be terrible for the 3 1/2 billion [sic] truck drivers in the country.” He’s also come out against the most pressing issue of our day: circumcision. Though I suspect there’s no truth to the rumor he’ll make his official campaign song Pink Floyd’s “The Final Cut”…
  • The Twitter Primary

    Sunday, March 24th, 2019

    Twitter is not the end-all and be all of the world, or even of social media, but it does provide a quick-and-dirty estimate of the popularity of various Democratic presidential candidate. So let’s take a snapshot and see who’s winning the Twitter Primary right now.

    The following are all the declared Presidential candidates, plus Joe Biden, ranked in order of most to least followers:

    1. Bernie Sanders: 9.16 million
    2. Cory Booker: 4.22 million
    3. Joe Biden: 3.37 million
    4. Marianne Williamson: 2.61 million
    5. Kamala Harris: 2.49 million
    6. Elizabeth Warren: 2.31 million
    7. Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.39 million
    8. Beto O’Rourke: 1.37 million
    9. Amy Klobuchar: 660,000
    10. Pete Buttigieg: 488,000
    11. Tulsi Gabbard: 312,000
    12. Andrew Yang: 195,000
    13. Julian Castro: 194,000
    14. John Hickenlooper: 139,000
    15. Jay Inslee: 42,000
    16. John Delaney: 18,100

    A few notes:

  • Twitter does rounding, and counts change all the time, so the number might be slightly different when you look at them.
  • I had an old Twitter account for Andrew Yang, now corrected.
  • For a guy that constantly leads polls, Joe Biden isn’t showing much Twitter strength. Biden’s supporters may also skew older than average, including people not on Twitter. He also hasn’t officially entered the race yet.
  • Media darlings Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke are both doing much worse than you would guess from their hype, and much worse than Cory Booker.
  • Governors in the race have abysmally low Twitter follower counts. Both had official announcemnets in March (though Inslee had been running longer than that), so maybe they will rise in time.
  • Julian Castro, a supposedly serious candidate and the only Hispanic in the race, is losing to Andrew Yang.
  • Judging from Twitter strength alone, Marianne Williamson should be a top tier candidate.
  • If I had included them, “rock star” losers Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams would both go between Klobuchar and Buttigieg.
  • Candidates with more Twitter followers than I expected: Booker, Williamson, Gillibrand, Buttigieg.
  • Candidates with fewer Twitter followers than I expected: Biden, Harris, O’Rourke, Castro, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Delaney.
  • John Delaney’s minuscule number of followers does not bode well for the “non-insane” lane in the primaries.
  • For reference, President Donald Trump’s personal account has 59.3 million followers. (The official presidential @POTUS account has 25.5 million, which I’m sure includes a great deal of overlap.)

    As crowded as the field is now, the soft Twitter numbers suggest the race could be ripe for a disruptive outsider celebrity candidate…

    Edited to add: Just from starting to compile this yesterday and posting today, some of the numbers have jumped around quite a lot. Kamala Harris dropped from 2.9 million to 2.49 million, and Pete Buttigieg’s followers jumped by 50,000. Updated numbers above. Maybe just normal volatility, or maybe something screwy going on…

    Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for March 18, 2019

    Monday, March 18th, 2019

    It’s Betomania time among certain media outlets after Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke announced he was running last week. So there’s a ton of Beto news below. Also, two names I had pegged as Out are now making noises about (possibly) getting In.

    National Review‘s Dan Maclaughlin offers up a lengthy essay on the five lanes of the Democratic Presidential race. There’s lots of interesting analysis to chew on in terms of demographic and age trends and preferences among Democratic voters. I don’t agree with all his conclusions, but it’s well worth reading the whole thing. His summary:

    My own ranking, for now, of the likeliest nominee:

    1. Kamala Harris
    2. Beto O’Rourke
    3. Joe Biden
    4. Amy Klobuchar
    5. Cory Booker
    6. Bernie Sanders
    7. Elizabeth Warren
    8. [Field]
    9. Kirsten Gillibrand

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Maybe? Now she’s saying a 2020 presidential run is “on the table.” Upgrade from Out.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning Toward In. Not seeing any presidential run news on Bennet this week.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. He keeps dropping hints. Obama’s Vice President seems like he’s going to run against the “new left.” God help us all. He’s also rich:

    “Middle-Class Joe” Biden has a $2.7 million vacation home. He charges more than $100,000 per speaking gig and has inked a book deal likely worth seven figures.

    Since leaving office in 2017, the 76-year-old former vice president has watched his bank account swell as he continues to cultivate the image of a regular, Amtrak-riding guy. He’s repeatedly referred to himself as “Middle-Class Joe” on the campaign trail and in speaking engagements as he publicly mulls whether to run for president.

  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Out.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. “After months of speculation, actress Rosario Dawson confirmed Thursday that she and presidential candidate Senator Cory Booker are dating.” Evidently Booker is on the Dennis Kucinich Presidential dating plan. That should help quiet the “Booker is gay” whispering campaign.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Out.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning Toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. Bullock announced he’s not running…for the senate.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gets a Chicago Tribune profile. He also raised $600,000 after a CNN townhall where he slammed Mike Pence.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. Castro “dropped a list of 30 high-profile endorsement from Lone Star State politicians shortly after fellow Texan Beto O’Rourke announced his own bid for the presidency. The list includes San Antonio’s political powerhouse, Henry Cisneros; six current San Antonio city council members, including Rey Saldana and Rebecca Viagran; and multiple Bexar County officials, including Nelson Wolff.” That’s great…if you’re running for the president of Texas. Castro was always going to pick up San Antonio endorsements. How well can he run nationwide? He also visited Charleston.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. “Iowa has zero interest in de Blasio as presidential candidate: poll.” Much like the rest of the union…
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. Delany is asking for donations to meet the official DNC “65,000 donors from 20 states” threshold to appear in debates.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. She .
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gillibrand did that “Oh, I was already running, but now I’m officially running” thing.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Maybe? Thought he was out, but now he has an announcement on Wednesday. May be a Presidential run, maybe an endorsement, maybe a 2022 senate run, maybe a teamup with Stacey Abrams to form Sore Loser PAC 2020. Who knows? Upgrade from Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. Evidently all is not sunshine and roses for the Harris campaign, since Chelsea Janes in the Washington Post dinged her for “verbal miscues.” To wit: “In the first weeks of Harris’s campaign, the 54-year-old has fielded criticism for equivocal and imprecise answers to questions about her stances on specific policies and her record as a prosecutor.” She also had to return money from foreign lobbyists: “Three days after she announced her White House bid in January, Harris received $2,700 from Arthur R. Collins, a lobbyist for the government of Bermuda. Sometime in January or February, Harris also received $2,700 from Vinca LaFleur, a speechwriter for the royal family of Jordan.” But only, of course, after the media asked about them…
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Twitter. Facebook. Twenty-Two Things You Didn’t Know about John Hickenlooper. Including the fact he’s Kurt Vonnegut’s fake son and watched Deep Throat with his mother.
  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder: Out.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. He got a Gaurdian profile. In his capacity as Washington Governor, Inselee signed a new law that shifts the election date from late May to the second Tuesday in March.” How convenient.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. She talked about taxing big tech. There’s no problem so thorny government intervention can’t make worse…
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? Progressive blog Blue Virginia notes that McAuliffe sucks in all the polls. In one he was behind Andrew Yang…
  • Oregon senator Jeff Merkley: Out. Filing for reelection to the senate instead.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? “He’ll spend much of next week’s congressional recess in key presidential primary states, starting in New Hampshire on Saturday and then moving on to South Carolina and Iowa during the week.” He also wants to end the filibuster and the electoral college. There’s no think like groupthink…
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: In. Twitter. Facebook. There’s so much O’Rorurke news it needs its own section:
    • After O’Rourke’s announcement, Reuters dropped the news of “Beto O’Rourke’s secret membership in America’s oldest hacking group,” The Cult of the Dead Cow. Having been part of the Austin BBS scene way back in the pre-Internet days, I can tell you that all of this amounts to a whole lot less than meets the eye. The Cult of the Dead Cow were no Legion of Doom, and O’Rourke’s “hacking” seemed to consist mainly of trading warez (copied computer programs, sometimes hacked to remove the copy protection). Illegal, but just about everyone in the BBS scene did it; think of it as a very low-bandwidth version of Napster back when programs fit on a single floppy disk and had to been downloaded on 2400 baud modems. Though the fact this is coming out now does suggest lapses on both the media and Ted Cruz’s opposition research department.
    • Related: Tripmaster Beto, Psychedelic Warlord.
    • O’Rourke raised $6.1 million in his first 24 hours, edging out Bernie Sanders’ haul.
    • Matt Welch at Reason wonders if phony Betomania has already bitten the dust. He also digs up this preemptive Club for Growth video hitpiece:

      The problem, of course, is that it believes Democrats actually care about the ideas Democrats claim they care about.

    • David French roots for Beto against the Social Justice Warriors.
    • Beto O’Rourke, Weirdo:

      The former El Paso congressman’s spastic “Hey, I’m still figuring out these new hands” presidential-kickoff video, in which his upper limbs appeared to be subject to mad random yanks by an angry puppeteer, was merely the latest odd detail in the saga of Weirdo O’Rourke. It was even weirder than Elizabeth Warren’s “Greetings fellow earthlings, I too enjoy fermented malt beverages!” video. Robert/Beto is a man so apart from other human beings that he recently thought nothing of ditching his wife and three kids so he could drive around the country, alone, accosting unsuspecting dentists to help him apply Novocaine to his aching soul. He might be the first person ever to run for the White House on a platform of asking the nation to help him figure out who he is.

      The source of the angst is evident: Beto is a brainless rich kid who yearned to be cool and wasn’t very good at it. He flunked out of punk. He failed as a fiction writer. He belly-flopped as an alternative-newspaper publisher. And he’s so clueless that his apartment was once robbed while he was sitting in it. At his pricey Virginia prep school (Woodberry Forest School these days carries a sticker price of $48,000 a year), he thought he “just stuck out so badly” because of the “monoculture” there, which the Dallas Morning News called “white, wealthy and southern.” O’Rourke was and is white, wealthy, and southern, so he couldn’t have stuck out much more than Miracle Whip at the mayonnaise convention, yet he was wounded and alienated. Or maybe not. He put this in his high school yearbook: “I’m the angry son. I’m the angry son.” Below that: “I owe you everything, Mom, Dad . . .” You have to pick one, though, don’t you? You can’t be a seething rebel and a dutiful child. You can’t be Kurt Cobain and Kenny G. One pose nullifies the other. Or maybe O’Rourke was even then trying to position himself as acceptable to all constituencies.

      Snip.

      What’s the deal with his net worth, which is estimated at $9 million? I came across this line, on Heavy.com: “Peppertree Square Ltd. Imperial Arms is a real estate company, and Peppertree Square is a shopping center in El Paso, which was a gift from his mother.” Jeez, I remember when I thought my mom was sweet for buying me a blazer. I want Beto’s mom. When Beto’s dad died, he left the boy an apartment complex worth $5 million. Also his father-in-law William D. Sanders is worth a packet. Bloomberg once estimated he was worth $20 billion.

      So far, then, O’Rourke’s life story does not look like a fable about rising to meet fate’s challenge, but more like privilege and dilettantism.

    • Over at the New York Times, Gail “Team Kamala” Collins offers up a takedown of O’Rourke. Now I’m no O’Rourke fan, I’m happy to cheer on blue-on-blue attacks, and that Vanity Fair piece is eminently mockworthy, but this is a thuddingly bad piece of writing. It’s one long, smug, graceless sneer. You could have thrown a rock into a random crowd at CPAC and likely found someone capable of writing a better takedown of O’Rourke.
    • Scott Adams on the Beto dance.
    • Beto O’Rourke Announces He Starting Obama Cover Campaign.”
    • Finally, an observation: In addition to the contact harvesting splash screen, O’Rourke’s website only has four links: Shop, Jobs, Donate, Contact. No room for such trivia as “issues” or even a candidate biography. I guess the figure a three-term congressman is such a “rock star” that he doesn’t need to be introduced…
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Leaning Toward In? Gets an Atlantic profile that starts off with him doing yoga.

    Tim Ryan is a man containing multitudes. He is, as his contortions would suggest, a dedicated practitioner of hot power yoga and a meditation evangelist, but he sells himself as a champion of the American worker, and he speaks with the plain, sometimes brusque language of his mostly blue-collar constituents. In Congress, he has endorsed tax cuts for corporations, but he also supports progressive goals such as Medicare for all. And he’s a congressional backbencher—a relatively unknown Democrat from a rapidly reddening state. But he says he’s “very much looking” at running for president.

  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Bernie Sanders Pledges To Do A Better Job Of Explaining Socialism.” Wait, I thought we wanted to win the race! Also:

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning Toward In. Biggest Swalwell news: he shared a yearbook photo:

    I’m now imagining a an 80s teen comedy in which teenage jock Swalwell beats up teenage nerd O’Rourke…

  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren campaigns in Memphis, kicking off three-state tour.” She also wants to break up big tech.
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. She gets a “click through these 12 photos so we can display ads” bullshit listicle minibio from the Houston Chronicle that’s not worth your time and is only included here because other news about her is thin on the ground. Oh, she also has that world peace thing all figured out in a simple 4-step program: “expand economic opportunities for women around the world; expand educational opportunities for children globally; reduce violence against women; improve unnecessary human suffering wherever possible.” It’s so simple! I’m sure this would instantly end the fighting in Yemen and Syria. That same piece also compares and contrasts her ideas with Andrew Yang’s. I guess they’re both competing in the Weirdo Lunatic Outsiders lane.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. OK, Yang is a fucking idiot.
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for March 11, 2019

    Monday, March 11th, 2019

    Sherrod Brown is Out, as are (to recapitulate last week’s mini-update) Michael Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, Eric Holder and Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley. Evidently the clown car was just too crowded for them to contemplate climbing aboard. That leaves Biden and Beto as the only two undecided “big fish.”

    A lot of Democratic Presidential hopefuls were in Austin for SXSW: “Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., will speak on Saturday, while former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee will speak Sunday.” And Beto O’Rourke is also there pimping a movie about his failed senate run. John Delany was there as well.

    Des Moines Register poll shows Biden first with 27%, Sanders a close second with 25%, and everyone else in single digits.

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out. Though his law firm did file for bankruptcy.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning Toward In. “Mulling 2020 run, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado stops by Jaffrey firm.” That’s Jaffrey, New Hampshire, population 5,457, which does rather suggest he’s still interested in running…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. In his week’s Hamlet watch, Biden’s chances of running are put at 95%, and is now expected to announce in mid-April.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Out.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Brady Quirk-Garvan, who has served as the Chairman of the Charleston County Democratic Party for five years, announced that he is stepping down in order to endorse Senator Cory Booker for President.”
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Out. This is a surprise, since he looked like he was getting in. “Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) announced Thursday that he will not run for president in 2020, just after completing a tour of early caucus and primary states. Brown said in a statement that he was confident other candidates would adopt his political mantra — ‘the dignity of work’ — and that he would continue working against President Donald Trump in the Senate instead of joining the crowded Democratic primary field.” Yeah, literally no one is using that as a Democratic Presidential rallying cry. It’s all about the federal government handing out free stuff (Medicare for all, guaranteed basic income, reparations), illegal aliens and social justice warrior garbage.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning Toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. He’s hired an advisor for his run.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. This week he got a Newsweek profile.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. He turned the pandering up to 11 and embraced reparations. “If under the Constitution we compensate people because we take their property, why wouldn’t you compensate people who actually were property?” Maybe because there is literally no one alive who was a slave in the United States before slavery was outlawed by the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865…
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Out. It was obvious after her humiliating defeat by Donald Trump that she would never be President of the United States of America, and I doubt Grandma Death is up to the physical rigors of a Presidential campaign (she certainly wasn’t last time).
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. Visiting South Carolina.
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. He gets a Rolling Stone profile and interview:

    His unorthodox proposals is his belief that the core of the Democratic voter base still lies near the center. He supports a universal health care system, but not Medicare-for-all. He wants to bring back the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has been derided by progressives. He’s cited eliminating the national debt as a priority. He’s also an avowed capitalist. “This primary is going to be a choice between socialism and a more just form of capitalism,” he said in a statement after Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy late last month. “I believe in capitalism, the free markets, and the private economy. I don’t believe socialism is the answer and I don’t believe it’s what the American people want.”

    From the interview:

    Listen, I think Democrats are more right about policy than Republicans are, which is why I’m a strong Democrat. But I’m not walking around saying every Republican I know is a horrible human being who doesn’t have any good ideas or have anything to contribute to our country. It’s ridiculous. But if you listen to the parties, that’s what they’re basically telling us and there’s really been a vacuum of principled leadership.

  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. This week’s Gabbard drama: her refusal to call Syrian President Bashar Assad a war criminal. On one hand, yeah he is and she should. On the other, this will be a top ten issue for approximately no one voting in the Democratic Presidential primary, and is being ginned up as a controversy because Gabbard is seen as a threat to media favorite Kamala Harris. She also filed a bill to end federal marijuana prohibition. Good for her.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. Here’s a piece on her record as a flip-flopper.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. She was campaigning in Myrtle Beach. Here’s a write-up on the San Francisco crime lab scandal that occurred under her term as DA. “With the local criminal-justice system at risk of devolving into chaos, Harris took the extraordinary step of dismissing about 1,000 drug-related cases, including many in which convictions had been obtained and sentences were being served.” Also, she thinks America hasn’t had “a real conversation on race.” You know, the conversation where people from the party of Ralph “Klan outfit” Northam and Mary Ann “N-word district” Lisanti get to lecture us about how we’re all racists for not voting for Democrats…
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Twitter. Facebook. How Hickenlooper won as a longshot for Denver mayor in 2003. Also: “I’m happy as a capitalist.” Though Ann Althouse dings him for having to be prodded into saying so.
  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder: Out. Not a surprise. He was so marginal I accidentally omitted him from last week’s roundup and no one noticed.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. Evidently Inslee’s “climate change” mania is a threat to ethanol, which may not go over well in Iowa.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. She’s campaigning in Tampa Bay and talking about climate change. The Florida primary is two weeks after Super Tuesday, so it’s rather a leap of faith to assume she’ll still be in the race.
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? Evidently a bunch of big money donors are waiting on his decision.
  • Oregon senator Jeff Merkley: Out. Filing for reelection to the senate instead.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? He talked about running as a national security-focused candidate, a feat that no Democrat has managed since 1960. “Moulton told me he will run through VFW halls and college campuses, leaning in on a national-security focus which, even in a field this huge, he is all alone in focusing on—a stance that not only differentiates him, but could eventually draw the others out on foreign affairs.” If he got in he would be competing with Biden and Delany for the “surprisingly sane for a Democrat” lane. Upgrade over Doubtful.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe. More on his “I’ve made a decision but I’m not going to tell you” game. “Is it Beto?” “No, it is just a boy.” “Beto says he can not come today, but will come tomorrow.”
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Leaning Toward In? At least he seems to have some inkling of the problem:

    “Just watching this economic train wreck happen for 30 years and really not seeing anybody in the democratic party that even gets it and that to me is really frustrating,” said Ryan. “I think our community, and communities like ours, need a voice that understands what happened, how the workers have been left out, and where we need to go. I think I could offer that kind of vision for the country because we’ve been doing it here but also know that if we’re going to move forward, we have to cut these workers in and that’s not part of the conversation right now.”

    Ryan says his frustration has been building for years and he’s not hearing and hasn’t heard for a few cycles that democratic candidates are truly connecting with American workers.

    “That concern that is here is not being translated to Washington. I try, and there are others that do, but it’s not penetrated this coastal, the coastal domination of the Democratic Party,” said Ryan. “I ran against Nancy Pelosi, primarily because I thought this message is not getting out, no one is listening. President Trump won the presidency because Democrats forgot to talk to workers, people who take a shower after work as opposed to people who just take a shower before work and those are the people that we grow up with here, those are our family members, and I’m upset because their voices aren’t being heard. I want to do something about it, and whether that’s run for President or not, that’s where my heart is.”

  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Senate Democrats have warned to Sanders (though evidence suggests the DNC hasn’t). Also, even though Bernie’s running for President, he still has a backup plan:

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning Toward In. “Eric Swalwell wants to be president, and why the heck not?” I think the words “Eric Swalwell” adequately answer that question. “Now that Swalwell is an-all-but-declared candidate for president, the challenge is getting others to take him seriously.” Does rather sound like he’s getting in…
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. Daily Beast writer says:

    From what I see, Elizabeth Warren is running the best race so far by miles.

    Warren is doing something none of the rest of them are doing. She’s running for president. The others are just positioning. I suppose that’s not necessarily true of Bernie Sanders, who has one gear and we know what it is, and we already know from last time what his positions are (although he has added a wealth tax, which I endorse heartily). But all the others are running for wokest progressive. Warren’s running for president.

    What do I mean? She’s put out a bunch of tough, meaty proposals. They mean something. They communicate: “This is what I will do, and it will constitute serious change.” Last week’s proposal to break up the tech companies was ambitious and brave. Most Democrats are afraid of tech money. The Democrats have taken back the House, and they’re going to be holding dozens of good and necessary hearings. But here’s one hearing I’m not holding my breath waiting for them to convene: a panel on regulating Facebook.

    But Warren went right at it. Monopoly power. It’s (yet another) huge and under-discussed crisis in this country, a grotesque distortion of the market that hurts consumers in a hundred ways every day. If you want to learn more about monopoly power generally and the tech giants specifically, go visit the website of the fine people at the Open Markets Institute. But suffice it to say for present purposes that Warren has laid out a plan that the anti-monopoly experts say is intelligent and practical.

    That’s just the latest example. She’s made a bold proposal to limit shareholder power, and another one calling for universal child care. And of course there was the wealth tax, which my Beast colleague Jonathan Alter praised to the heavens a few weeks back. She’s putting the meat on the bones of new Democratic economic message, and no one else is even a close second so far.

    Needless to say, I don’t agree with the writer’s policy positions or his take on the state of the race, but I offer it as a data point.

  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. Hmmm:

    Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson, a pair of little-known 2020 contenders, both say they are on track to meet the grassroots donation threshold set by the DNC to get into the first debate in June. They’d join Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, both African-American ministers and civil rights activists, as the only non-elected officials to make the first Democratic presidential debate in the past 40 years.

    To qualify, candidates must get at least 1 percent support in three party-approved public polls — or receive campaign donations from 65,000 individuals with a minimum of 200 donors apiece in 20 states, the DNC said in February. If there are more than 20 candidates who pass one of those thresholds, only candidates who meet both polling and fundraising criteria will be given primacy, with the large debate field randomly split into two groups over two nights.

  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. See the Marianne Williamson debate bit above. I have a Republican friend who said she donated a dollar to get Yang into the debates to screw with Democrats.
  • Democratic Party Presidential Clown Car Update for March 4, 2019

    Monday, March 4th, 2019

    Hickenlooper is In, Inslee is more officially In, and the B team (Biden, Bloomberg and Beto) are still Hamleting. It’s your Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update!

    The Washington Post plays the answer top Google questions about the candidates game. Got a chuckle out of this on Pete Buttigieg: “Not only would he be the youngest person ever elected president, he would also be both the first gay president and the first president who liked University of Notre Dame athletics.”

    538 polls which candidate early primary state Democratic activists are considering backing. Finally, a poll Kamala Harris comes out on top of! She’s followed by Booker, Brown, Warren, Klobuchar, Biden and Sanders. Biggest drop between November and February? O’Rourke, whose support halved.

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning Toward In. He says people are tired of “rage Olympics,” applauded President Donald Trump’s “America will never be a socialist country” line and says Medicare for all is a pipe-dream. It will be interesting to see if that message gets any traction in a crowed field…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. Says his family has signed off on him running. Have some Washington Post consensus opinion on why Biden should run. Oh, and Biden said something nice about his successor, Vice President Mike Pence, which is right up there with the Rape of Nanking or using the wrong pronoun among Democratic Media Complex activists…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Leaning Towards Running. He’s evidently interviewing potential staffers in Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s also supposedly looking at Manhattan office space for his campaign. Because running a campaign from New York City worked out so well for Hillary Clinton…
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. He campaigned in South Carolina. He’s also leading the endorsement race.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Likely In. “U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is starting the final leg of his tour of the early presidential primary and caucus states. As he visits South Carolina, Brown says he’s learned a lot as he gets closer to making a decision on a possible presidential run.” Decision? If you’re touring Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, you’ve already decided to get in…
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. With all the attention on Iowa, New hampshire and Couth Carolina, Buttigieg is campaigning at…Scripps College in Claremont, California. I actually had to look that up. It’s part of the Los Angeles sprawl, just west of Rancho Cucamonga…
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. Said he’s going to run on education, including pre-K funding. (Tiny problem: It doesn’t work. But don’t expect any of Castro’s rivals to voice that heretical thought…)
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. But check out this ABC news headline: “Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and other 2020 hopefuls honor march on Selma”
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. Not even his wife thinks he should run. Of course, that’s the same wife that can’t account for $850 million in mental health funding
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. Here’s how Delaney has been campaigning:

    You go to Dewitt, Tipton, Glenwood, Denison, Alba, Knoxville, Perry, Grimes and nine other places this year alone—emphasizing the small Iowa towns that seldom see a presidential candidate. You take out an ad during the Super Bowl two years before the Iowa caucuses — an unheard-of extravagance that no one dared try before. You open six campaign offices in Iowa — before your better-known rivals have opened even one. You win the endorsement of four county central Democratic committees in Iowa — long before the top-tier candidates have lassoed any.

    And you make 24 campaign trips to Iowa and another 14 to New Hampshire, the sites of the first two political tests of the 2020 campaign, states that pride themselves on being the political equivalent of the Cheers bar — places where, the civic folklore says, everyone knows your name.

    Everyone in the political world knows your name, unless, of course, your name is John Delaney.

  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. Paste offers up the far-left peacenik case for Gabbard.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Big tobacco, big soda, big booze, big burger, casinos, and Viagra might sound like the ingredients for an extremely lively and health-hazardous night out on the town. They also represent some of New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s major financial backers.”
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. Harris wants all the California Benjamins. Politico says she’s she’s just too awesome at connecting emotionally with voters to offer actual details or plans. “She’s been noncommittal or vague on a range of issues.” One plan floated: legalizing prostitution. My libertarian half both agrees and points out that it’s a state level issue, and thus nothing the President can or should affect. That WaPo Google answer bit above offers this tidbit: “Her sister is Maya Harris, a former adviser to the 2016 campaign of Hillary Clinton who now acts as a political analyst for MSNBC.” It’s incest all the way down…
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Website. Twitter. Announced this morning. His kickoff rally is in Denver March 7. Upgrade over leaning toward in.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. Already had him as in, but now he’s made it even more official, running as the Climate Change Scold. “2020 Hopeful Jay Inslee Goes National With A Climate Agenda He Failed To Implement In His Own State.”
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign. Hey, Vox says they’re monitoring him.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. Here’s the roundup list of all the allegations of her abusing staff. I hear she once shot a staffer in Reno, just to watch her die…
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? It’s been radio silence from Clintonus Toadius Maximus.
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sounding doubtful. Not hearing much on him. But he got more support in that 538 activists poll than Castro or O’Rourke.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Seems doubtful, but he says he’s still considering a run. Maybe he just enjoys the Morning Joe attention…
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe. He’s made up his mind! But he’s not telling us. Yet. More from The Dallas Morning News, if you can get past the beg blocker.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe Shading Toward In? Says he’s strong considering it. It’s like a friggng Hamlet convention here…
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Held his first campaign rally in Brooklyn. This just in: The Democratic Party is still trying to screw Bernie:

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning Toward In. He’s in New Hampshire. Evidently what Swalwell learned from the 2016 Presidential election is that the path to the White House is tweeting crazy shit.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook.
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. She’s evidently having an Iowa Black Caucus Event, and she has other events scheduled in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. He was on Tucker Carlson, and an amazingly similar interview, also on Fox, with Not Quite Tucker Carlson. (Is that Pete Hegseth? I’m asking here, I honestly don’t know.)
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for February 25, 2019

    Monday, February 25th, 2019

    I updated last week’s clown car update to note that Bernie Sanders was In, and he promptly raised $6 million for his campaign. Now we’re waiting on the other three Bs (Biden, Beto and Bloomberg) to make up their minds.

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    15 Democratic contenders ranked by a Washington Post columnist, with Harris at the top, just in case you needed a nice tall glass of consensus MSM grab-fanny.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Learning toward In. All people know about him is a speech slamming Ted Cruz. Like slamming President Trump, that’s not exactly going to make you stand out from the field. Also, if he does run, his brother, James Bennet, will step down as New York Times option editor. Thanks for reminding everyone, yet again, how incestuously intermixed our elite mainstream media is with the Democratic Party.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Hamlet is still expected to run. 538 notes that Biden not running wouldn’t be unprecedented, with Gore 2004 as the closest example, but the latter had just come off a huge losing general election effort. Vox wonders what happens if he doesn’t run.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Leaning toward In. In a shocking development, people who have received money from Michael Bloomberg are quite enthused with Michael Bloomberg running for President.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Silicon Valley loves Cory Booker. That could be a problem for him.”

    Booker, long the darling of the tech industry and some of its marquee leaders, is traipsing into a transformed Silicon Valley when he touches down in town this weekend for his first fundraising trip here since he announced he was running for president. Friday lunch guests at the San Francisco home of David Shuh, Friday dinner guests at the 9,300-square-foot Piedmont home of Ali Partovi, and Saturday evening guests at the Atherton home of Gary Lauder (an heir to the Estée Lauder beauty empire) are paying up to $2,800 each to rub shoulders with Cory Booker.

    Then again, most have probably met him before. The presidential candidate has collected half a million dollars from the internet industry over his five years in the Senate, from people like LinkedIn’s Hoffman, Salesforce’s Marc Benioff, Google’s Eric Schmidt, Emerson Collective founder Laurene Powell Jobs, and early Facebook exec Sean Parker.

    Why? He is culturally of this place, donors say.

    But times have changed, and Silicon Valley is no longer merely an ATM for Cory Booker.

    Twitter is no longer primarily a place to find an elderly man snowtrapped in his home in Newark, like Booker once did — it is now also a cesspool of hate and misinformation. Mark Zuckerberg is no longer a hero brandishing a $100 million check in a well-meaning attempt to save Newark’s schools, like Booker once described him — he is a bogeyman who badly mishandled our last election and is now as divisive as any of the people running for president.

    Silicon Valley is itself a minefield that in some ways sums up the broader political challenge for Booker in 2020: He’s running as a liberal on issues including tech regulation, but the progressive left holds him in suspicion — and he could face more as he begins to court tech money more openly.

  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Likely In. Say’s he’ll make a decision next month and swears he’ll be the most pro-union candidate. Would being the darling of an ever-fading part of the blue coalition be enough to win in a divided field? Maybe.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. He gets lots of good press…in Indiana. Elsewhere? Not so much.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. He was in Denison, Iowa. Want a live feed of his Iowa tour? If so, what’s wrong with you?
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. But she met with Biden and Klobuchar. Her endorsement could be a serious boost for Klobuchar. For Biden? Doubt it.
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. He appeared in Iowa for crowds of 20 to 40.
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. He appeared on The Steele Report in Waterloo, Iowa. Said voters are not interested in socialism. I’m starting to get the hunch that Delany may hang around in the field longer than you might think.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know About Tulsi Gabbard, including the fact she’s of American Samoan, not Indian, decent. Gets a Guardian profile.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. She hired two more Iowa staffers and Pfizer executive Sally Susman is hosting a fundraiser for her. And she’s already losing to ranch dressing.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. Says she’s not a socialist. Heh: “Viewers Starting To Doubt Objectivity Of Reporter With ‘KAMALA 2020’ Face Tattoo.”
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably In. Appeared on a stage in Ames with Castro and Harris. Also says he’s not cut out to be a senator. Who’s asking you?
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Gov. Jay Inslee says he could decide on presidential run ‘as soon as’ this week.” Wait, I thought he was already in. I mean, he even has a SuperPAC Sometimes it’s hard to see all the way to the back of the clown car…
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. Here’s this week’s “Klobucher treats her staff like shit” article, including the “she ate a salad with a comb” bit that got covered everywhere.
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. He was “close to making a decision” seven days ago, then nada.
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sounding doubtful.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Starting to seem doubtful. Other than a foreign policy chat at the Brookings Institution, it’s radio silence on the Moulton front.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe. He’s days away from that “end of the month” decision window. “Beto Tries to Trick Hispanics Into Thinking He’s One of Them“:

    The Hamlet of West Texas—who recently retired from Congress after somehow managing to lose a Texas Senate race against an opponent with sky-high negatives despite raising more than $70 million from a national donor base, and then went on a “listening tour” across America to find himself—recently acknowledged that he is trying to make up his mind about whether to spend 2020 running for president or taking another stab at the Senate by challenging Republican incumbent John Cornyn.

    My guess is that O’Rourke will ultimately travel whatever road is lined with the most television cameras. Of course, vanity—even to the point of narcissism—is not a disqualifier in a politician. It’s practically a job requirement.

    Snip.

    Take the name, which he switches on and off like a light switch. He was “Robert” at birth, “Beto” in childhood, “Robert” again in boarding school and at Columbia, and “Beto” again when he returned to El Paso to run for office.

    Either this guy has an identity crisis the size of Texas, or he is just crafty enough to try to have his flan and eat it too—becoming Latin, or a white male, whichever is more convenient.

    The urban legend has it that O’Rourke came by his nickname the ol’ fashioned way—by having it bestowed upon him by Latino friends in El Paso, who thought he was pretty decent for a white guy, dubbed him an honorary Mexican, and declared that, from that day forward, he would be known as “Beto.” According to this narrative, O’Rourke became Latino simply by rubbing shoulders with Latinos. It’s like how you get poison oak.

  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe? Still thinking about it.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Nothing pays quite like pimping socialism: “Sanders Blows Past Other Candidates, Raised $5.9 Million in First 24 Hours.” “The Bernie backlash has already begun.”
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. The big Swalwell story last week was him tweeting about not having coffee at Trump Tower. Because nothing says “sacrifice” like walking an extra half block…
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. Backs “reparations” for black people and American Indians. The jokes pretty much write themselves. (Which didn’t stop The Babylon Bee: “Elizabeth Warren Claims Two Men In Colonial Outfits Assaulted Her With Smallpox-Infested Blankets.”)
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. (She has 2.6 million followers.) “Marianne Williamson Wants to Be Your Healer in Chief.” Believe it or not, the article is actually sappier than the headline implies. Sweet Jesus, the women who buy healing crystals finally have their candidate.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. Finally, a man willing to take on the robot threat.