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Texas Statewide Race Roundup for October 2, 2013

Wednesday, October 2nd, 2013

Time for another (no doubt incomplete) roundup of statewide race news:

  • Holly Hansen interviews Greg Abbott.
  • Wendy Davis expresses enthusiasm for gun control, because that will go over so well in Texas. Next up: Wendy David calls for banning BBQ, Tex-Mex, football and Christmas.
  • Davis is expected to announce for Governor tomorrow.
  • Politico previews the Abbott-Davis fight as “bruising.” Well, yeah. It’s going to bruise Democratic egos and wallets to accomplish very little. Also contains this gem: “Republicans control more than 60 percent of statewide offices.” Well, yes, 100% is indeed more than 60%…
  • Left-leaning Texas Monthly just goes ahead and says Abbott will be the next governor. And here’s an excerpt of their cover profile of Abbott.
  • Unless Debra Medina runs as an Independent. Is she trying to elect Wendy Davis? Also, “I couldn’t raise money for a Comptroller race, so I’m going to run for governor” doesn’t make a lot of sense.
  • A roundup of Abbott vs. Davis fundraising between June 17 and August 5.
  • There was a Lt. Governor candidates forum in Houston.
  • There’s another one in Houston tomorrow, October 3, from 5-8 PM at Grace Community Church, 14505 Gulf Freeway.
  • PJ TV Interviews Todd Staples:

  • Also Jerry Patterson:

  • And David Dewhurst (but I’m not seeing one for Dan Patrick):

  • Jerry Patterson slams his rivals as soft:

  • Three Attorney General candidates (Ken Paxton, Barry Smitherman, and Dan Branch) also had a debate.
  • They also clashed over who had endorsed who.
  • Paxton unveils a list of 100 important Texas Tea Party supporters.
  • Smitherman picks up a Right-to-Life endorsement.
  • George P. Bush visits Seguin and San Angelo.
  • Jason Gibson, who briefly competed in the 2012 Senate race, is considering running against John Cornyn in 2014, presumably (as in 2012) as a Democrat.
  • Dem State Rep. Mike Villarreal prefers not to lose a statewide race for Comptroller.
  • Three Joe Straus allies (Bill Callegari, Rob Orr and Tryon Lewis) decide that now is a good time to retire.

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »

    Can Anyone Successfully Primary John Cornyn?

    Tuesday, October 1st, 2013

    There’s been a lot of criticism of John Cornyn in Tea Party circles over his failure to back Ted Cruz in procedural votes on the ObamaCare defunding fight. Given that, the muttering over someone primarying Cornyn have grown much louder.

    Can anyone take Cornyn? It’s something of a tall order. He had some $6 million on hand as of the July reporting period, and any potential candidate will have a much latter start than Ted Cruz had when he beat David Dewhurst.

    I queried a few people more tied-in than I, and three names of possible Cornyn challengers came up:

  • U.S. Congressman Louie Gohmert was the most popular choice. Gohmert is a solid conservative, and Mark Levin has even put up a Draft Congressman Gohmert for U.S. Senate page on Facebook. The drawback is that Gohmert isn’t wealthy enough to self-fund, and his East Texas district puts him far away from the Houston and Metroplex fundraising pools that would be necessary to fund a statewide campaign.
  • U.S. Congressman Michael McCaul was a very close second. McCaul is widely considered to be “conservative enough” (and has an ACU rating of 91%) and with a personal fortune estimated to be around $300 million (his wife is the daughter of the founder of Clear Channel), he could clearly self-fund. McCaul was considering a Senate run in 2012, but ultimately opted against it.
  • Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willet has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, and he’s well-respected among conservatives. But stepping from the Texas Supreme Court to the U.S. Senate is a tall order (Cornyn did it via a stint as Texas Attorney General), and Willet has joked about not being rich, so self-funding is probably out for him as well.

    • (Unmentioned by anyone, but someone who’s family connections would bring instant media coverage: George P. Bush. But name recognition and family connections only take you so far. Bush would go from an overwhelming favorite for Land Commissioner to a distinct underdog in a Senate race, plus there’s no guarantee he would be any more conservative than Cornyn. And Tea Party opinion of the Bush Dynasty is not exactly one of, shall we say, unrestrained affection.)

    It’s going to be a tall order to take out a sitting U.S. Senator, barring scandal or even more deviation from conservative principles. But of those mentioned, McCaul probably has the best shot to beat Cornyn.

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    Posted in Elections, ObamaCare, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »

    Texas Statewide Race Update for July 16, 2013

    Tuesday, July 16th, 2013

    Time permitting, I’m hoping to do regular updates on the 2014 statewide races in Texas the same way I updated the senate race. But with so many more offices and players, it’s going to take me some time to get up to speed.

  • Greg Abbott’s gubernatorial warchest has swollen to a formidable $23 million.
  • He also visited Longview, Wichita Falls, and Duncanville.
  • Todd Staples leads the money race for Lt. Governor, according to this fragment of the story that isn’t behind the Statesman paywall.

    Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples, with $3 million in the bank, has the largest campaign treasury of the four Republican candidates for lieutenant governor, according to the latest fundraising statements, which were due Monday.

    Thanks to a $650,000 personal loan to his campaign, Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, the latest entrant in the race, edged past Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in money in the bank — $2.1 million to $1.73 million — even though Dewhurst raised $1.2 million compared with about $100,000 for Patrick. The fourth candidate, Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, raised $417,000, bringing his treasury to $1.3 million. Patterson said he hopes to raise $3 million in the next six months to remain competitive, and Dewhurst has a personal fortune that he can tap

  • The Texas Tribune has more fundraising roundup news. Tidbits:
    • State Rep. Dan Branch hasn’t even declared his AG run, but already has $4 million on hand, including a $5,000 donation from George W. Bush.
    • Barry Smitherman has over $1 million cash on hand for his AG run.
    • State Sen. Ken Paxton (honestly, I was just guessing he would make an AG run) has more than $1.6 million cash on hand. He hasn’t declared yet.
    • George P. Bush reported $2 million raised and $2.6 million on hand for his Comptroller run.

    I’ll be digging into the financial reports for all the major candidates when I get a chance (don’t hold your breath this week).

  • Democratic abortion diva Wendy Davis raised just under a million dollars…for her state senate campaign. No word on a governor’s run.
  • Even in-the-tank liberal fossil Paul Burka says Davis has no chance to win the Texas Governor’s race.
  • A David L. Watts, Jr. is running for Land Commissioner. His platform so far seems to be that George P. Bush isn’t conservative enough.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »

    Perry’s Decision and the State of Play for Texas Statewide Races in 2014

    Tuesday, July 9th, 2013

    With Rick Perry declining to run for reelection as Governor, we finally have the crystallizing event that will set the 2014 field. So here’s an early look at how the next year’s statewide races are shaping up in Texas:

    Governor

    Attorney General Greg Abbott and his $18 million warchest is going to be the overwhelming favorite almost no matter who else jumps into the race; he has all Perry’s strength’s without Perry’s disadvantages. If David Dewhurst jumps into the Governor’s race, Abbott will still be the prohibitive favorite. Tom Pauken will be hard-pressed to match Glenn Addison’s 2012 senate race total of 1.6%. On the Democrats’ side, instant abortion celebrity Wendy Davis might be the favorite, but there’s no reason to expect Abbott won’t cream her by 20 points, and as a politician since 1999, there’s no indication she can self-fund. Neither of the Castro brothers strike me as stupid enough to want to tarnish their national office chances by losing a governor’s race. Beyond that it’s random state senators and reps (reportedly Rep. Mike Villarreal and Sen. Kirk Watson are considering runs), or retreads from the 2012 senate race.

    Lt. Governor

    His humiliating senate race defeat proved that David Dewhurst is vulnerable to a challenge from the right, but I remain unconvinced that any of the three currently declared candidates (Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, Agricultural Commissioner Todd Staples, and State Senator Dan Patrick) are the ones to do it. Dewhurst and Perry both moved up from the Land and Agricultural Commissioner positions (respectively), but neither ran against an incumbent, much less a well-heeled, entrenched one. Patrick tested the waters for the 2012 senate race, but found the groundswell for him non-existent. Moreover, Patrick’s candidacy appeals most to social conservatives, but after the abortion dustup, they would seem among the least likely to desert Dewhurst. Presumably U.S. Rep. Mike McCaul (the only man currently in Texas politics richer than Dewhurst) could defeat Dewhurst were he to get in, but so far he hasn’t made any moves to get into the race. In this, and all lower statewide races, whoever runs for the Democrats is whatever random candidates decided to skip the governor’s race.

    Attorney General

    With Abbott running for governor, this race is wide open. With Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman’s website already touting him as a potential candidate, his entry is pretty much a foregone conclusion. State Rep. Dan Branch is also said to be considering a run. Someone on Abbott’s staff could also get in, or a state legislator with a law degree who has been blessed by Texans for Lawsuit Reform. (Maybe Ken Paxton?)

    Comptroller

    Incumbent Susan Combs has said she’s not running for reelection. Early word was she was eying the Lt. Governor’s race, but I don’t see her getting any traction there. Losing 2010 Tea Party/Ron Paulite gubernatorial candidate Debra Medina is rumored to be considering a run (and the previous link goes to a webpage for an exploratory committee for that race). State Senator Glenn Hegar is also said to be considering a run, as is state Ways and Means chairman Harvey Hilderbran. (State Senator Tommy Williams has preemptively bowed out.)

    Land Commissioner

    With incumbent Jerry Patterson gunning for Dewhurst’s job, George P. Bush, son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, nephew of Bush43, and grandson of Bush 41, is considered a lock for the race. Though nothing about George P. Bush’s limited public appearances suggests he’s invulnerable, it’s doubtful he’ll draw a serious challenger this far down the ballot who’s willing to take on the Bush Machine’s renowned fundraising prowess.

    Agricultural Commissioner

    State Rep. Brandon Creighton is rumored to be interested in a run. Rep. Tim Kleinschmidt is passing on the race

    Railroad Commission

    When Smitherman runs for AG, his position will open up. State Rep. Stefani Carter will be running, along with “Dallas businessman Malachi Boyuls and geologist Becky Berger of Schulenburg.” Greg Parker, who made it into the runoff with Smitherman in 2012, is another possibility.

    And don’t forget all those wildcard Texas millionaires and billionaires who might suddenly decide to run for office…

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 3 Comments »

    George P. Bush Running for Land Commissioner

    Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

    “George Prescott Bush filed the official paperwork Tuesday to run for Texas land commissioner next year.”

    That would be Jeb Bush’s son, Bush43’s nephew, and Bush41’s grandson, one of the “little brown ones.” The Bush name alone is probably enough to win him the office, but add to that the fact that the Bush family has one of the most powerful money machines in all politics and you have a prohibitive favorite. Jerry Patterson was probably right to think he’d have an easier time defeating a post-Senate-race-meltdown David Dewhurst for Lt. Governor.

    Deeper analysis of a continuing Bush dynasty, and of how Democrats and the press react to facing a Bush scion who happens to be Hispanic, will have to wait until (at least) tomorrow.

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »

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